The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Here is the state of play with gas in W.A, it is o.k demonstrating and blocking, but eventually reality catches up.
From AFR today.

 

[Smurf1976]

This doesn't sound good.

At the moment the official forecast remains an LOR2.

In layman's terms that means supply will meet demand but there's no room for anything to go wrong. Everything that's expected to work has to work and if it doesn't then we have an immediate problem as soon as any failure occurs.

That being so, AEMO has commenced negotiations with existing RERT (Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader) members to make available additional generation and/or reduce consumption.

RERT members, in practice = businesses who either have their own backup generators (usually diesel) that could be turned on so as to take load off the grid, or who are willing and able to shut down for a period (heavy industry etc). The relevant businesses are not electricity companies - think factories, smelters etc to reduce load and think in terms of backup diesel generators in CBD office buildings, TV stations and so on.

112333MARKET INTERVENTION14/12/2023 03:29:11 PM

INTENTION TO COMMENCE RERT CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS​

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) Intention to negotiate for additional reserve - NSW1 Region- 14/12/2023

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 112328.
AEMO intends to commence negotiations with RERT Panel members for the provision of additional reserve by issuing requests for tender for the following period of time;
15:30 to 19:30 hrs 14/12/2023
If reserve is required, the period of activation or dispatch will be within this period but may not be for the entire period.
AEMO will issue a further advice if reserve is contracted.


Manager NEM Real Time Operations

 

[sptrawler]

Well it wasn't as though this was unexpected, you can't hammer coal fired steam plant and not expect to blow boiler tubes. As we have said for the last few years, they ain't designed to be cycled like this.
At least the truth is starting to come out and the facts have to be faced.

Heat on electricity grid as coal exits faster than forecast

The agency tasked with keeping the lights on says coal power stations will shut down quicker than their owners are expecting.

www.smh.com.au

The Australian Energy Market Operator on Friday forecast the last coal plant would shut in 2038, five years earlier than it expected just two years ago, with cheaper renewables undercutting fossil fuel profitability.

“Coal-fired generators, the ageing workhorses of Australia’s electricity supply, are now retiring. They are less reliable, more difficult to maintain and less competitive against firmed renewable supply,” the operator said in its biennial integrated system plan, which assesses trends in the energy market and details likely outcomes until 2050.
The plan’s release comes amid an early summer heatwave across the eastern seaboard, with the risk of blackouts heightened by a string of coal plant outages. Eight generation units across five coal plants are currently offline.

NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe on Thursday urged households to cut their electricity use in the late afternoon – when many workers return home and crank up air-conditioners – to reduce the risk of power outages. High temperatures are expected to continue into next week.
EnergyAustralia said a boiler tube leak had put one of two units out of action at the Mount Piper coal plant in Lithgow, NSW, and one of the units at the company’s massive Eraring plant was “limping along”.

Meanwhile, two of the four units at Victoria’s Yallourn coal plant are offline, with one due to return next week from scheduled maintenance and the other paused for unexpected repairs. Queensland’s Callide plant is also down one unit.
Coal power’s downturn is being driven by the rise in renewables as state and federal governments pursue ambitious emissions reduction targets.

These goals pose significant risks to energy security, particularly if coal power exits the grid faster than it is replaced by renewables.

The federal government is rolling out a scheme, likely to run into the tens of billions of dollars, to underwrite private investment in renewables, which seeks to address the risks by requiring state governments to ensure there’s enough power to keep the lights on.

The market operator said it expected to reach the Albanese government’s targets of lifting renewables’ share of the grid to 82 per cent by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
The renewable rollout requires 10,000 kilometres of new transmission lines to link wind and solar farms to population centres, with several major projects currently delayed by farmers blocking access to their land.

The market operator warned unexpected constraints on the transmission line supply chain, including steel and worker shortages, could reduce the share of renewables to 60 per cent by the end of the decade.
Renewables generated about 38 per cent of electricity in the past year, while 57 per cent came from coal and 5 per cent from gas.

The market operator said to reach 100 per cent renewables, it would cost $121 billion in today’s dollars to build the required wind and solar farms, pumped hydro dams, batteries and transmission lines.
Transmission lines alone are expected to cost $16.4 billion, but electricity prices are expected to fall once their cost is recouped as they provide access to cheaper renewable energy. The market operator said by 2050, the extra connections would avoid $17 billion in additional costs to energy users.

 

[Smurf1976]

NSW yesterday:

Yellow = Solar
Green = Wind
Blue = Hydro
Light Blue = Battery
Red = Diesel
Grey = Biomass
Orange = Gas
Black = Coal
Purple = Import from Qld + Vic

Below the zero line = battery charging and export to Qld / Vic. Noting that due to being interconnected in two directions, to two other states, NSW can both import and export simultaneously eg import from Qld and export to Vic or vice versa.

 

[qldfrog]

NSW yesterday:

View attachment 167250

Yellow = Solar
Green = Wind
Blue = Hydro
Light Blue = Battery
Red = Diesel
Grey = Biomass
Orange = Gas
Black = Coal
Purple = Import from Qld + Vic

Below the zero line = battery charging and export to Qld / Vic. Noting that due to being interconnected in two directions, to two other states, NSW can both import and export simultaneously eg import from Qld and export to Vic or vice versa.

The small amount of wind is scary ,once the night comes it is back to coal...
The batteries start quite early at 4pm in the middle of summer..
My own battery/sun system did not go to battery until 6-6:30 yesterday and that is in Qld so worse than NSW for sun input in summer

 

[Knobby22]

NSW yesterday:

View attachment 167250

Yellow = Solar
Green = Wind
Blue = Hydro
Light Blue = Battery
Red = Diesel
Grey = Biomass
Orange = Gas
Black = Coal
Purple = Import from Qld + Vic

Below the zero line = battery charging and export to Qld / Vic. Noting that due to being interconnected in two directions, to two other states, NSW can both import and export simultaneously eg import from Qld and export to Vic or vice versa.

Very interesting.
Clearly shows the value of hydro.

 

[sptrawler]

Very interesting.
Clearly shows the value of hydro.

Spot on, a couple of days low wind and low solar generation and there would be minimal power to run the grid, let alone charge the batteries or pump the hydro, to run through the night.
That is what I was alluding to when I said "At least the truth is starting to come out and the facts have to be faced".
The fact is it is going to take $hit loads of installed renewables and even more installed storage, even then it will be scary, but poncing on isn't an option, the coal generators will die as smurf and I have said endlessly.
Either go like hell putting in the hydro, batteries, solar farms, wind farms and HV transmission, or start putting in GT's or replace the coal generators, but something needs to happen fast IMO.
It is just as bad in W.A, poncing on to give gas development approvals, while shutting down coal generators or hammering them to death isn't an option. Either get more gas and start putting in GT's, start putting in huge solar and wind farms plus batteries, or replace the coal generators doing nothing isn't an option.
The clock is ticking, believe it or not.
At least the Government has agreed to underwrite the cost, now all we need is companies with enough size, money, resources and interest to acquire the equipment and put it in, even that is a huge problem.

 

[SirRumpole]

Either go like hell putting in the hydro, batteries, solar farms, wind farms and HV transmission, or start putting in GT's or replace the coal generators, but something needs to happen fast IMO.

I think we need all of the above, it depends on the time scale.

Hydro will take decades, wind and solar a less amount of time, but these require storage which will take longer.

Imo the priority should be gas turbines (that can run on multi fuels), nothing else gives the despatchable power of coal in a reasonably short time frame.

No doubt people will argue this.

 

[Sean K]

Anyone in NSW experience this?

 

[sptrawler]

I think we need all of the above, it depends on the time scale.

Hydro will take decades, wind and solar a less amount of time, but these require storage which will take longer.

Imo the priority should be gas turbines (that can run on multi fuels), nothing else gives the despatchable power of coal in a reasonably short time frame.

No doubt people will argue this.

That's exactly right, but even GT's take quite a bit of time to install as Kurri Kurri is showing, then you have to get the gas to supply them, the problem is time.
The answers are there, it is just the ideology that is holding things up and eventually running out of time will bring it crashing down.

 

[Knobby22]

That's exactly right, but even GT's take quite a bit of time to install as Kurri Kurri is showing, then you have to get the gas to supply them, the problem is time.
The answers are there, it is just the ideology that is holding things up and eventually running out of time will bring it crashing down.

There is no gas.
Front page of the Age today is the Bass Strait gas is running out in 4 years and people will be encouraged to ditch their gas water heaters and ovens.

 

[sptrawler]

There is no gas.
Front page of the Age today is the Bass Strait gas is running out in 4 years and people will be encouraged to ditch their gas water heaters and ovens.

There is gas, it is just that ideology and politics is stopping it being developed, this is what myself and @Smurf are getting at.
The politics and ideology needs to be stopped immediately and get technical non affiliated people in to sort is out.
An extended system failure isn't an option, but the longer this situation goes on the more likely it will happen that would be nothing short of catastrophic.
If they don't want to use gas fine do something else, if they do want to use gas fine develop it, doing nothing isn't an option any more
FFS we have just brought in another 1.6m people, they use power as well and we aren't putting any in, this ain't rocket science it's common sense..
People have no idea, when it really becomes bad there is no quick fix, interesting times.

 

[SirRumpole]

There is no gas.
Front page of the Age today is the Bass Strait gas is running out in 4 years and people will be encouraged to ditch their gas water heaters and ovens.

I can see the government needing to impose export controls in that case. Australians come first, but no doubt the Jupiters and Saturns (gas giants) and the super funds will scream.

 

[qldfrog]

I can see the government needing to impose export controls in that case. Australians come first, but no doubt the Jupiters and Saturns (gas giants) and the super funds will scream.

We are not even there, we do not have the power plants to burn it.
So my own off the grid setup..but that is band aid..and all that for an ideology which pretends wrongly that a solar farm plus battery will emit in a lifetime less CO2 than an equivalent gas plant for example...
The west deserves its fall..

 

[sptrawler]

We are not even there, we do not have the power plants to burn it.

That is becoming the main issue, the plants we have are stuffed and time is running out.
Whether it is renewables and storage or gas is becoming secondary, renewables and storage plus the HV infrastructure will take time, so will putting in gas plant, meanwhile the coal plant gets hammered more and more.
That's the problem, boiler tube failures will increase with increased cycling, yet they will have to be cycled more and more, not a good situation, but unavoidable if you have no other options.
So the coal generators will have to be compensated(taxpayer) to keep hammering them, or the renewables/storage will have to be curtailed to allow the coal to stay on and reduce damaging them, the problem then is who will put in the renewables/storage(taxpayer).
That is why the Government is doing Snowy2.0 and Kurri Kurri, but as with everything ATM delays, cost blowouts, labour shortages and material logistics.
It is an interesting time to live through, it will be great, if it all lands well.
Riveting stuff for people with an electrical generation background.

 

[sptrawler]

There is no gas.
Front page of the Age today is the Bass Strait gas is running out in 4 years and people will be encouraged to ditch their gas water heaters and ovens.

As I said politics, the ban on looking for gas has been lifted and then a ban on using it is put in place, what business in its right mind would spend the money looking?
See how weird it is all getting, putting yet more demand on an electrical system that is in chaos already, politics you have to love it.

After years of uncertainty, Victoria gives green light to onshore gas exploration

Business and environmental groups are divided over the Victorian Government's decision to lift a moratorium on conventional onshore gas exploration, on the same day it permanently bans fracking and coal seam gas.

www.abc.net.au

The Andrews Government will introduce new laws into State Parliament to allow for an "orderly restart" of drilling for gas reserves underground from July 2021.

Victoria announces ban on gas connections to new homes from January 2024

Environmental groups and Property Council welcome move but opposition argues it could increase energy bills

www.theguardian.com

Gas connections will be banned in new homes and government buildings built in Victoria from next year.

The announcement has been backed by environmental groups and the property and construction sectors but the opposition has warned the change could increase household energy bills fuelled by higher demand for electricity.

 

[qldfrog]

As I said politics, the ban on looking for gas has been lifted and then a ban on using it is put in place, what business in its right mind would spend the money looking?
See how weird it is all getting, putting yet more demand on an electrical system that is in chaos already, politics you have to love it.

After years of uncertainty, Victoria gives green light to onshore gas exploration

Business and environmental groups are divided over the Victorian Government's decision to lift a moratorium on conventional onshore gas exploration, on the same day it permanently bans fracking and coal seam gas.

www.abc.net.au

The Andrews Government will introduce new laws into State Parliament to allow for an "orderly restart" of drilling for gas reserves underground from July 2021.

Victoria announces ban on gas connections to new homes from January 2024

Environmental groups and Property Council welcome move but opposition argues it could increase energy bills

www.theguardian.com

Gas connections will be banned in new homes and government buildings built in Victoria from next year.

The announcement has been backed by environmental groups and the property and construction sectors but the opposition has warned the change could increase household energy bills fuelled by higher demand for electricity.

The headless chooks are running the show...

 

[sptrawler]

Giving them the benefit of the doubt, that it isn't about getting voted in, it is about fixing the climate and this is the way to do it.

Well they should do it, don't do the soft shoe shuffle and beg someone to stump up the money, take it on board and get on with it, that was the mandate.

So Kurri Kurri is a goer from the last Government, Snowy 2.0 is a goer from the last Government, Marinus link was a goer from the last Government but Labor have halved it to one cable.

So where is the new Government owned initiatives coming from, other than saying they will go guarantor for private investors and asking the industry super funds to stump up members money?

It all sounds great and is terrific media coverage but really not much is happening other than the coal generators getting older and more worn out.

NEM generation profile 2022-23

The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) 2023 State of the Energy Market highlights the generation mix across the National Electricity Market (NEM) as well as emerging trends.

www.energycouncil.com.au

.

 

[Smurf1976]

There is no gas.
Front page of the Age today is the Bass Strait gas is running out in 4 years and people will be encouraged to ditch their gas water heaters and ovens.

The great problem here is government has completely ignored the warnings.

Plenty has been said, by a wide range of people from individuals to government to the gas industry itself, but all fell on deaf ears.

There's reports in the archives in both SA and Tas going back more than 40 years which cover it. That says it all. Even funnier, there's a Victorian government one from 1976 too.

 

[farmerge]

The great problem here is government has completely ignored the warnings.

Plenty has been said, by a wide range of people from individuals to government to the gas industry itself, but all fell on deaf ears.

There's reports in the archives in both SA and Tas going back more than 40 years which cover it. That says it all. Even funnier, there's a Victorian government one from 1976 too.

And these are/were the muppets who should have known better.