The future of energy generation and storage

rederob · 8 December 2023

My solar module chart failed to load in an above post, so here it is:

Extrapolating the chart sees the 2023 price in the ballpark of USD$0.15/module.

And here's a dated, albeit trend-accurate, snapshot of how comparative generation costs have been changing over time:

Lazzard's LCOE link provides greater detail of real world factors affecting comparative prices.

Although offshore wind is more expensive than onshore, fewer permitting issues arise and its typically higher capacity factor mitigates the higher cost:

Smurf1976 · 8 December 2023

sptrawler said:
I don't think anyone disagrees with the cost advantage of renewables, the debate is more focused on the amount of renewables and storage that will be deployed and as to its ecological effect and its ongoing replacement costs.

The big problem is much the same as hydro. The best sites, the most practical and economic ones, are pretty crap places for anything else. Because humans generally aren't keen on doing anything at all on steep slopes or places with a constant gale blowing.

That meant those places didn't have cities built on them and farmers generally didn't want them either. They also weren't good places for roads or rail lines. End result is unless someone found minerals there, they were otherwise left untouched.

Then humans came up with the idea of nature conservation. Since this idea became popular long after we'd started clearing and developing land, much of the country was already unsuitable for conservation simply because there was nothing left to conserve. That lead to these steep slopes and windy places being declared as National Parks largely due to being the only real options if anything was to be conserved, the rest was already gone.

Which gives rise to a conflict between land uses. The best places to put wind, and the best places for hydro, are also the places most prized for conservation. It's not that engineers hate nature, it's just that that's where the best resources are and humans generally kept away from them for other uses meaning they're also the best spots for conservation.

Even offshore there's objections on similar grounds. Eg the coast of SA and Victoria between Kingston SE and Cape Otway is one example and there's plenty in Tasmania where the offshore location itself might be acceptable but it's a given the road and transmission is going through a formal reserve of some sort in order to get there. In both of those examples there's already been quite a fuss made.

mullokintyre · 8 December 2023

Smurf1976 said:
The big problem is much the same as hydro. The best sites, the most practical and economic ones, are pretty crap places for anything else. Because humans generally aren't keen on doing anything at all on steep slopes or places with a constant gale blowing.

That meant those places didn't have cities built on them and farmers generally didn't want them either. They also weren't good places for roads or rail lines. End result is unless someone found minerals there, they were otherwise left untouched.

Then humans came up with the idea of nature conservation. Since this idea became popular long after we'd started clearing and developing land, much of the country was already unsuitable for conservation simply because there was nothing left to conserve. That lead to these steep slopes and windy places being declared as National Parks largely due to being the only real options if anything was to be conserved, the rest was already gone.

Which gives rise to a conflict between land uses. The best places to put wind, and the best places for hydro, are also the places most prized for conservation. It's not that engineers hate nature, it's just that that's where the best resources are and humans generally kept away from them for other uses meaning they're also the best spots for conservation.

Even offshore there's objections on similar grounds. Eg the coast of SA and Victoria between Kingston SE and Cape Otway is one example and there's plenty in Tasmania where the offshore location itself might be acceptable but it's a given the road and transmission is going through a formal reserve of some sort in order to get there. In both of those examples there's already been quite a fuss made.

Great comment Smurf.
To further that aim, I would suggest that all of Sydney and its suburbs up to the foot of the blue mountains be bulldozed and left as a giant National par to replace the ones where we need to put hydro.
mick

qldfrog · 9 December 2023

Meanwhile in the real world .including non west
Nuclear Keeps on Losing Ground in 2023. The share of nuclear power generation declined 4% year-over-year in 2022, with the 2,546 TWh generation tally accounting for only 9.2% of global electricity output, the lowest figure since the early 1980s.

qldfrog · 9 December 2023

So, is the grid down yet or do we need to wait 5pm?

SirRumpole · 9 December 2023

Smurf1976 said:
The big problem is much the same as hydro. The best sites, the most practical and economic ones, are pretty crap places for anything else. Because humans generally aren't keen on doing anything at all on steep slopes or places with a constant gale blowing.

That meant those places didn't have cities built on them and farmers generally didn't want them either. They also weren't good places for roads or rail lines. End result is unless someone found minerals there, they were otherwise left untouched.

Then humans came up with the idea of nature conservation. Since this idea became popular long after we'd started clearing and developing land, much of the country was already unsuitable for conservation simply because there was nothing left to conserve. That lead to these steep slopes and windy places being declared as National Parks largely due to being the only real options if anything was to be conserved, the rest was already gone.

Which gives rise to a conflict between land uses. The best places to put wind, and the best places for hydro, are also the places most prized for conservation. It's not that engineers hate nature, it's just that that's where the best resources are and humans generally kept away from them for other uses meaning they're also the best spots for conservation.

Even offshore there's objections on similar grounds. Eg the coast of SA and Victoria between Kingston SE and Cape Otway is one example and there's plenty in Tasmania where the offshore location itself might be acceptable but it's a given the road and transmission is going through a formal reserve of some sort in order to get there. In both of those examples there's already been quite a fuss made.

I think hydro could probably be sold if other features of it were emphasised more like water supply, fishing and recreation and flood mitigation.

I realise that these don't all fit together perfectly with the pumped hydro function, but surely there is some overlap ?

Belli · 9 December 2023

qldfrog said:
So, is the grid down yet or do we need to wait 5pm?

For some people in Canberra the grid was down (literally), and probably still is, since last night. Suburbs to both the South and North of me got hammered by a violent storm. The lightning was spectacular. Those without power sweltered today and advice was give to move to a cooler area if at all possible. Not sure where that would be to be honest.

'Unable to cool their own properties': Concerns for Canberrans without power during sweltering weekend

Heatwave conditions eased on Saturday night, with temperatures in the high 20s expected on Sunday, before increasing again early next week, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

www.abc.net.au

Smurf1976 · 9 December 2023

SirRumpole said:
I think hydro could probably be sold if other features of it were emphasised more like water supply, fishing and recreation and flood mitigation.

The big problem with all of this is the issue has been politicised.

Wind, hydro, nuclear, coal, solar, gas, oil, geothermal, biomass.....

Pick any of them or even just building a transmission line and rationally it's an exercise in maths and science to decide what to do. Come up with designs that are workable technically as a "must" then from those options look at the environmental, economic and any other issues relating to them and pick whichever stacks up best.

That's an exercise for relevant professionals across engineering, ecology, finance etc supported by others collecting the data.

Trouble is, politics has become overwhelmingly dominant.

macca · 9 December 2023

Belli said:
For some people in Canberra the grid was down (literally), and probably still is, since last night. Suburbs to both the South and North of me got hammered by a violent storm. The lightning was spectacular. Those without power sweltered today and advice was give to move to a cooler area if at all possible. Not sure where that would be to be honest.

'Unable to cool their own properties': Concerns for Canberrans without power during sweltering weekend

Heatwave conditions eased on Saturday night, with temperatures in the high 20s expected on Sunday, before increasing again early next week, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

www.abc.net.au

This could also go in the Cashless Society thread, imagine if this was Bathurst or similar, one storm and the whole city stops !

Belli · 9 December 2023

macca said:
This could also go in the Cashless Society thread, imagine if this was Bathurst or similar, one storm and the whole city stops !

Have to go on the honesty system in that case. All the tills would be out as well. Oh for the days when there was them manual tills.

sptrawler · 11 December 2023

Smurf1976 said:
The big problem with all of this is the issue has been politicised.

Wind, hydro, nuclear, coal, solar, gas, oil, geothermal, biomass.....

Pick any of them or even just building a transmission line and rationally it's an exercise in maths and science to decide what to do. Come up with designs that are workable technically as a "must" then from those options look at the environmental, economic and any other issues relating to them and pick whichever stacks up best.

That's an exercise for relevant professionals across engineering, ecology, finance etc supported by others collecting the data.

Trouble is, politics has become overwhelmingly dominant.

Watch Western Australia, to see how a well thought out and stable power system, has become a hotch potch of band aid solutions.

Whether it becomes a third world power system is yet to be seen, we have put in orders for a lots and lots of batteries, so we should get some great real world data as to their ability to be the backbone of a system.

mullokintyre · 13 December 2023

Our quaint little village has no power.
It is the third power outage in a week.
The previous two have both been over two hours.
Powercor says it may be back by 1.00 a.m.
Lucky I have solar power and batteries.

Mick

SirRumpole · 13 December 2023

mullokintyre said:
Our quaint little village has no power.
It is the third power outage in a week.
The previous two have both been over two hours.
Powercor says it may be back by 1.00 a.m.
Lucky I have solar power and batteries.

Mick

Funny you should say that. My power went off half an hour ago. No word on restoration. Will get the generator out if its not back in time for the Big Bash.

qldfrog · 13 December 2023

mullokintyre said:
Our quaint little village has no power.
It is the third power outage in a week.
The previous two have both been over two hours.
Powercor says it may be back by 1.00 a.m.
Lucky I have solar power and batteries.

Mick

Where are you Mike, not exact address but state/rough area?

mullokintyre · 13 December 2023

qldfrog said:
Where are you Mike, not exact address but state/rough area?

central victoria , the goulburn valley.
mick

sptrawler · 13 December 2023

Japan’s JT-60SA Generates First Plasma As World’s Largest Superconducting Tokamak Fusion Reactor

Japan’s JT-60SA fusion reactor project announced first plasma in October of this year to denote the successful upgrades to what is now the world’s largest operational, superconducting t…

hackaday.com

Smurf1976 · 14 December 2023

A current AEMO Market Notice:

112279RESERVE NOTICE13/12/2023 10:46:14 PM

PDPASA - Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 14/12/2023
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 112263 has been updated at 2230 hrs to the following:

[1.] From 1630 hrs 14/12/2023 to 1830 hrs 14/12/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 703 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 337 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO estimates the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 1500 hrs on 14/12/2023.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

Certainly cutting it fine in NSW with forecast demand reaching 12,850 MW and stuff all to spare.

An LOR2 is the last step before an LOR3 which is load shedding (blackouts).

My guess it'll probably scrape through again but there's going to be a point where luck runs out with this. Anyone's guess as to when but you can't keep dodging bullets forever, at some point it ends badly.

SirRumpole · 14 December 2023

Florence is moving again. Hooray, hooray.

Snowy Hydro tunnel boring machine moving a year after getting stuck

A 143-metre-long tunnel boring machine working on the massive Snowy Hydro 2.0 project is moving again, a year after getting stuck and causing a large sinkhole.

www.abc.net.au

sptrawler · 14 December 2023

SirRumpole said:
Florence is moving again. Hooray, hooray.

Snowy Hydro tunnel boring machine moving a year after getting stuck

A 143-metre-long tunnel boring machine working on the massive Snowy Hydro 2.0 project is moving again, a year after getting stuck and causing a large sinkhole.

www.abc.net.au

It is probably too expensive a piece of gear to abandon.
But you never know, if it gets bogged again.
The article says it only got 150m before it got stuck and it also says that Florence is 143m long, does that mean the back was only 7m from the entrance.

sptrawler · 14 December 2023

This doesn't sound good.

State told to turn off aircon as blackout looms

NSW residents struggling through a blistering day have been asked to turn off the airconditioning, and delay using non-essential appliances on Thursday night.

The future of energy generation and storage

PDPASA - Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 14/12/2023​

State told to turn off aircon as blackout looms​

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