The future of energy generation and storage

[basilio]

In the context of the above analysis consider this story on "nonsense" rules that are threatening scores of wind and solar projects.
Requires a close read .

The “nonsense” rules that threaten to scupper dozens of wind and solar projects

Industry experts warn new rules imposed on wind and solar projects will force developers to re-assess their projects and consider taking their investment elsewhere.

reneweconomy.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

In the context of the above analysis consider this story on "nonsense" rules that are threatening scores of wind and solar projects.
Requires a close read .

The “nonsense” rules that threaten to scupper dozens of wind and solar projects

Industry experts warn new rules imposed on wind and solar projects will force developers to re-assess their projects and consider taking their investment elsewhere.

reneweconomy.com.au

Those issues and the logistics problems, plus the transmission problems and the gas problems are certainly becoming a headache over East.

'It'll never sell': Farmers fear property value hits from renewable energy transmission lines

With both state and federal governments promising to fast-track high voltage transmission lines, landholders in the firing line are calling for better compensation.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

How will EV's affect demand for electricty supplies ? How can suppliers manage this forecast steep increase in demand ? I'm sure ASFR has been all over this issue for a couple of years now.

Jemena sees both sides of this issue.

Jemena sees big rewards for vehicle to grid services – big risks to unmanaged EV charging​

Rachel Williamson 21 June 2023 0

Managed electric vehicle (EV) charging could save energy network and generation owners millions, but only if they can convince drivers of the future to hand over control of their refuelling electricity use.

Distribution network service providers (DNSPs) can save $400 to $800 per EV owner annually, if their customers allow a third party to manage their vehicle charging at home, just in avoided investment to upgrade network capacity, says Jemena executive general manager of networks Shaun Reardon.

He was arguing the case for managed charging at his Australian Energy Week session, as the company expects to add 25 per cent new customers by 2035 to its network, including 300,000 EV owners.

The potential savings that Reardon was pointing to are the results of a one year study with 170 EV owners published in April with the Australian Energy Regulator.

Jemena sees big rewards for vehicle to grid services – big risks to unmanaged EV charging

A pilot suggests $400-$800 in annual network upgrade savings for each EV owner who lets a third party control their charger.

reneweconomy.com.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Time to put the afterburners on if we are going to effectively transition to a low carbon renewable energy power supply.

Thing is, it's not just about the low carbon bit.

It's about having power at all and we're fast heading to a point where nobody's going to care too much about the means of generation - when they're sitting in the dark they'll take anything that works.

The past 24 hours in SA sums up the situation pretty well:

At 3:20am (SA time) this morning we had effectively 100% wind energy, two gas units being on a minimum load only for system strength.

At 6:05pm tonight when demand peaked the supply mix was:
Gas = 66.9%
Import from Victoria = 25.0%
Wind = 3.6%
Diesel = 2.9%
Battery = 1.6%

Now regarding that import from Victoria, the supply mix in Victoria at this time was:
Coal = 58.5%
Wind = 13.8%
Hydro = 13.3%
Gas = 6.4%
Import from Tasmania = 5.4%
Battery = 2.6%

Now regarding that import from Tasmania, the supply mix in Tasmania at the time was:
Hydro = 82.7%
Wind = 17.3%

So overall a very high reliance on "traditional" sources of power.

Now for the scary stuff, looking at individual facilities, their contribution to that state's supply tonight during the peak and their expected closure year. For simplicity I've only looked at those closing in the next 15 years.

% figures are % of total SA / Vic supply at 18:05 SA time tonight. That is % of total supply, not % of supply from gas etc.

SA
Osborne (gas) = 8.3% Closing 2026
Torrens Island B (gas) = 8.9% closing 2026
Dry Creek (gas) = 4.1% closing 2030
Mintaro (gas) = 3.8% closing 2030
Snuggery (diesel) = 2.9% closing 2030
Lake Bonney (battery) = 0.18% closing 2034
Ladbroke Grove (gas) = 3.75% closing 2035
Pelican Point (gas) = 11.1% closing 2037

Victoria
Yallourn W (coal) = 17.3% closing 2028
Somerton (gas) = 1.95% closing 2033
Gannawarra (battery) = 0.18% closing 2033
Loy Yang A (coal) = 27.0% closing 2035

Those figures are just a snapshot of generation but they're absolutely real, being at 18:35 eastern states time / 18:05 SA time today.

 

[basilio]

Thing is, it's not just about the low carbon bit.

It's about having power at all and we're fast heading to a point where nobody's going to care too much about the means of generation - when they're sitting in the dark they'll take anything that works.

The past 24 hours in SA sums up the situation pretty well:

View attachment 158685

At 3:20am (SA time) this morning we had effectively 100% wind energy, two gas units being on a minimum load only for system strength.

At 6:05pm tonight when demand peaked the supply mix was:
Gas = 66.9%
Import from Victoria = 25.0%
Wind = 3.6%
Diesel = 2.9%
Battery = 1.6%

Now regarding that import from Victoria, the supply mix in Victoria at this time was:
Coal = 58.5%
Wind = 13.8%
Hydro = 13.3%
Gas = 6.4%
Import from Tasmania = 5.4%
Battery = 2.6%

Now regarding that import from Tasmania, the supply mix in Tasmania at the time was:
Hydro = 82.7%
Wind = 17.3%

So overall a very high reliance on "traditional" sources of power.

Now for the scary stuff, looking at individual facilities, their contribution to that state's supply tonight during the peak and their expected closure year. For simplicity I've only looked at those closing in the next 15 years.

% figures are % of total SA / Vic supply at 18:05 SA time tonight. That is % of total supply, not % of supply from gas etc.

SA
Osborne (gas) = 8.3% Closing 2026
Torrens Island B (gas) = 8.9% closing 2026
Dry Creek (gas) = 4.1% closing 2030
Mintaro (gas) = 3.8% closing 2030
Snuggery (diesel) = 2.9% closing 2030
Lake Bonney (battery) = 0.18% closing 2034
Ladbroke Grove (gas) = 3.75% closing 2035
Pelican Point (gas) = 11.1% closing 2037

Victoria
Yallourn W (coal) = 17.3% closing 2028
Somerton (gas) = 1.95% closing 2033
Gannawarra (battery) = 0.18% closing 2033
Loy Yang A (coal) = 27.0% closing 2035

Those figures are just a snapshot of generation but they're absolutely real, being at 18:35 eastern states time / 18:05 SA time today.

That is terrifying. 3-5 years is nothing in large engineering projects. In fact it is within a current Parliamentary term of office. In that context making sure there is available power if/when coal plants are retired becomes first order of business.

Thanks for the analysis. Absolutely highlights the day to day variations in energy supply and usage. And as you would also point out this analysis has NO allowance for extreme weather conditions or unexpected plant failures



snapshot has allowance for extreme weather conditions or unexpected failure of plant.

 

[sptrawler]

That is terrifying. 3-5 years is nothing in large engineering projects. In fact it is within a current Parliamentary term of office. In that context making sure there is available power if/when coal plants are retired becomes first order of business.

Thanks for the analysis. Absolutely highlights the day to day variations in energy supply and usage. And as you would also point out this snapshot has allowance for extreme weather conditions or unexpected failure of plant.

And how long have we been saying that, I think the Government is going to have to step in, otherwise there is going to be one hell of a problem over East very soon.
It is hard to say when because no one knows the state of the coal plant, but you can be sure it isn't getting the money spent on it that it used to, then when one unit fails it puts more pressure on the other units and all of a sudden you have several boiler failures.
Not good having a half ar$ed idea, setting targets that other people have to meet and at the same time they are supposed to make money.
Someone is going to have to pour obscene amounts money into this soon and it's starting to look like you and me Bas.
We should get an idea of how bad things are going, by watching how well Chris Bowen ages.

 

[sptrawler]

How will EV's affect demand for electricty supplies ? How can suppliers manage this forecast steep increase in demand ? I'm sure ASFR has been all over this issue for a couple of years now.

Jemena sees both sides of this issue.

Jemena sees big rewards for vehicle to grid services – big risks to unmanaged EV charging​

Rachel Williamson 21 June 2023 0

View attachment 158686

Managed electric vehicle (EV) charging could save energy network and generation owners millions, but only if they can convince drivers of the future to hand over control of their refuelling electricity use.

Distribution network service providers (DNSPs) can save $400 to $800 per EV owner annually, if their customers allow a third party to manage their vehicle charging at home, just in avoided investment to upgrade network capacity, says Jemena executive general manager of networks Shaun Reardon.

He was arguing the case for managed charging at his Australian Energy Week session, as the company expects to add 25 per cent new customers by 2035 to its network, including 300,000 EV owners.

The potential savings that Reardon was pointing to are the results of a one year study with 170 EV owners published in April with the Australian Energy Regulator.

Jemena sees big rewards for vehicle to grid services – big risks to unmanaged EV charging

A pilot suggests $400-$800 in annual network upgrade savings for each EV owner who lets a third party control their charger.

reneweconomy.com.au

That is the next issue that is going to rear its head when the grid starts failing, the private generators use your E.V battery to support their generation commitments rather than put in their own dedicated grid batteries, meanwhile they flog the ar$e off your EV battery and shorten its life.
I can't wait to see how many sign up for that, IMO the payment would want to be good.

 

[basilio]

That is the next issue that is going to rear its head when the grid starts failing, the private generators use your E.V battery to support their generation commitments rather than put in their own dedicated grid batteries, meanwhile they flog the ar$e off your EV battery and shorten its life.
I can't wait to see how many sign up for that, IMO the payment would want to be good.

I believe the interconnection of EV batteries to provide balance for overall power generation makes exceptional sense. If it was done all the time to extremes I could see a possible problem. So there would have to be excellent controls to ensure modest power draws rather infrequently.

As an order of priority in terms of reducing GG and adding a flexible option to the states energy supply setting up virtial battery banks has to be on the top of the list.

These battery banks can also be part of large business operations that are currently running solar panels and then want to capture excess usage. A good deal with the energy provider would enable these battery banks to be part of the overall distributed storage.

One thing for sure. There will not be a single magic bullet that address the issue. But if I was in Government, State or Local, I would have a dedicated task force on this issue with a strong engineering focus on absolutely ensuring multiple options were in play to ensure the grid is still working in 5 years time.

 

[sptrawler]

I believe the interconnection of EV batteries to provide balance for overall power generation makes exceptional sense. If it was done all the time to extremes I could see a possible problem. So there would have to be excellent controls to ensure modest power draws rather infrequently.

As an order of priority in terms of reducing GG and adding a flexible option to the states energy supply setting up virtial battery banks has to be on the top of the list.

These battery banks can also be part of large business operations that are currently running solar panels and then want to capture excess usage. A good deal with the energy provider would enable these battery banks to be part of the overall distributed storage.

One thing for sure. There will not be a single magic bullet that address the issue. But if I was in Government, State or Local, I would have a dedicated task force on this issue with a strong engineering focus on absolutely ensuring multiple options were in play to ensure the grid is still working in 5 years time.

Don't get me wrong Bas, I think it's a great idea, the problem is that it will encourage the private operators to put in the minimum amount of storage rather than the maximum amount.
Then as time goes by the cycling of your car battery increases and with it the loss of life expectancy and range, fortunately I think it will be sign up to system, so people will have the choice.
It would be interesting to hear what the other E.V owners think of the idea, like @Value Collector , @rederob, @mullokintyre and @JohnDe

Here is another article, this one from the U.K where V2G has been in operation for a few years.

Case study (UK): Electric vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging

Kaluza is part of a pioneering UK research and development project on one of the world’s largest V2G systems. It uses AI and market signals to automatically charge vehicles at the cheapest and greenest times.

www.ofgem.gov.uk

 

[IFocus]

I just cannot see batteries of any kind filling the storage gap useful for fault, impedance etc issues very short term backup but other types of storage required

 

[Value Collector]

I just cannot see batteries of any kind filling the storage gap useful for fault, impedance etc issues very short term backup but other types of storage required

I think you are thinking of it in the wrong way.

Don't think about it as if we need to have enough batteries to run the entire grid for long periods, think of it more as batteries playing a part in the dispatchable on demand side of the grid supply, along with other dispatchable sources such as Hydro and Gas.

Batteries also come in many different sizes, from home batteries through to large grid based batteries. Homes with batteries will be operating basically off grid during most of the peak demand periods, that alone will go a long way to stabilise grid demand.

 

[IFocus]

I think you are thinking of it in the wrong way.

Don't think about it as if we need to have enough batteries to run the entire grid for long periods, think of it more as batteries playing a part in the dispatchable on demand side of the grid supply, along with other dispatchable sources such as Hydro and Gas.

Batteries also come in many different sizes, from home batteries through to large grid based batteries. Homes with batteries will be operating basically off grid during most of the peak demand periods, that alone will go a long way to stabilise grid demand.

Yes I understand all that VC but short term before Hydro is built (very long lead tome) and more gas is found with political will to lock it up for domestic security (east coast) there will be major short falls.

I guess major and sustained black outs may generate some political will

 

[Value Collector]

Yes I understand all that VC but short term before Hydro is built (very long lead tome) and more gas is found with political will to lock it up for domestic security (east coast) there will be major short falls.

I guess major and sustained black outs may generate some political will

Hydro exists already, and more is already under construction.

We already have more than enough gas to get us through the transition, the huge Beetaloo gas field is already been found, and is in the process of being linked up to the east coast gas network, will be delivering gas by 2025, then we also have the Narrabri gas project ready to deliver gas soon.

APA group is in the process of planning the pipeline to connect the field in the picture below to the grid, the red lines are the existing pipelines, it will be able to serve pretty much entire east coast.

 

[IFocus]

Hydro exists already, and more is already under construction.

We already have more than enough gas to get us through the transition, the huge Beetaloo gas field is already been found, and is in the process of being linked up to the east coast gas network, will be delivering gas by 2025, then we also have the Narrabri gas project ready to deliver gas soon.

APA group is in the process of planning the pipeline to connect the field in the picture below to the grid, the red lines are the existing pipelines, it will be able to serve pretty much entire east coast.

View attachment 158721

Like your optimism and sincerely hope you are right.... like you usually are .

 

[Smurf1976]

We already have more than enough gas to get us through the transition

Geoscience Australia data:

A company trying to appeal to the market might claim a potentially huge resource but at this stage it's far too speculative to count on and neither government nor the rest of the industry is working on the basis of reserves anywhere near that large.

What we have at present with gas can be summarised into groups based on infrastructure bottlenecks (or complete absence where relevant).

NSW, Vic, Tas, SA market collectively with annual consumption of 427 PJ and peak day demand of approximately 2000 TJ (2 PJ).

Within this region we have 4459 PJ of reserves and a situation where pretty much all present production is constrained by depletion. That is, the present output limits from the Gippsland, Bass, Otway, Cooper and Sydney basins are all significantly down from their peak due to depletion of reserves. Gippsland in particular having fallen hard over the past 12 months - it's down around 20% year on year in terms of peak daily production.

Queensland market with annual consumption of 1509 PJ including exports and limited interconnection to the NT and south-eastern states markets via a single pipeline in each case. Reserves in this region total 29,180 PJ and at present seem able to meet demand in full to around 2030, after which decline commences.

NT with annual consumption of 672 PJ including export and reserves of 16,384 PJ. Noting that production is at present struggling to meet demand due to depletion of the Blacktip field, this region has a limited interconnection to other states via the pipeline to Mt Isa.

WA with annual consumption of 3408 PJ including export and reserves of 50,993 PJ. On present official forecasts WA faces a shortfall of supply from 2030 onwards driven by a combination of field production decline and rising consumption especially for power generation.

 

[Value Collector]

Geoscience Australia data:

View attachment 158736

A company trying to appeal to the market might claim a potentially huge resource but at this stage it's far too speculative to count on and neither government nor the rest of the industry is working on the basis of reserves anywhere near that large.

What we have at present with gas can be summarised into groups based on infrastructure bottlenecks (or complete absence where relevant).

NSW, Vic, Tas, SA market collectively with annual consumption of 427 PJ and peak day demand of approximately 2000 TJ (2 PJ).

Within this region we have 4459 PJ of reserves and a situation where pretty much all present production is constrained by depletion. That is, the present output limits from the Gippsland, Bass, Otway, Cooper and Sydney basins are all significantly down from their peak due to depletion of reserves. Gippsland in particular having fallen hard over the past 12 months - it's down around 20% year on year in terms of peak daily production.

Queensland market with annual consumption of 1509 PJ including exports and limited interconnection to the NT and south-eastern states markets via a single pipeline in each case. Reserves in this region total 29,180 PJ and at present seem able to meet demand in full to around 2030, after which decline commences.

NT with annual consumption of 672 PJ including export and reserves of 16,384 PJ. Noting that production is at present struggling to meet demand due to depletion of the Blacktip field, this region has a limited interconnection to other states via the pipeline to Mt Isa.

WA with annual consumption of 3408 PJ including export and reserves of 50,993 PJ. On present official forecasts WA faces a shortfall of supply from 2030 onwards driven by a combination of field production decline and rising consumption especially for power generation.

Maybe look into it a bit more, the government is very convinced of its huge resources. There are multiple companies up there drilling and proving up reserves.

And a little further north there is plenty of gas offshore to.

https://www.industry.gov.au/publica...lan/beetaloo-sub-basin/beetaloo-gas-resources

 

[Smurf1976]

it will be able to serve pretty much entire east coast

Existing pipeline nameplate ratings:

NT to Qld via Northern Gas Pipeline = 90 TJ / day
Ballera (SW Qld) to Mt Isa = 119 TJ / day
Noting Mt Isa region demand is presently 88 TJ / day on average

Ballera - Moomba (SA) = 453 TJ / day

Moomba gas production = 270 TJ / day

Moomba - Adelaide pipeline = 249 TJ / day
Moomba - Sydney pipeline = 489 TJ / day

Victoria - NSW interconnect (the only one capable of sending gas from another state into Vic) = 212 TJ / day.

Those are nameplate ratings with everything working.

So realistically there's a very real limit to the extent to which any gas produced in the NT can be supplied to the south-eastern states.

Gas consumption between Vic, NSW, SA, and Tas combined runs at an average of about 1170 TJ / day with routine peak about 2000 TJ / day.

Noting there that Victoria accounts for about 51% of the average and about 60% of the routine peak consumption so is the dominant consuming state of that group. SA accounts for 20% of the average 18% of the peak with the rest being mostly NSW. Tasmania's gas consumption being trivial.

Key issue going forward being not the average but the peak. To the extent gas is used to firm VRE during prolonged periods (multiple days) of low VRE yield, that drives up the peak gas consumption far more than it increases average consumption thus leading to a deliverability issue.

That issue already exists at a theoretical level. That is, the gas supply limit to the gas-fired generators under cold weather conditions is substantially lower than the maximum consumption rate of those same generators. Thus far it hasn't mattered most of the time and, when it has, the workaround has been to quietly switch to diesel (especially at night... ) but it's a gas constraint nonetheless. No issue during warm weather due to far lower gas reticulation demand especially in Victoria.

Relating to that is a long term trend toward higher peak and lower average need for gas-fired generation. That is, if it's to be used to firm VRE (rather than building more hydro for example as an alternative) then that need, in terms of total energy output, primarily occurs during cold winter weather. That's when the periods of low VRE yield occur, from mid-autumn onwards, and it's also the season where the greatest growth in electricity consumption is expected due to electrification. Just phasing out gas space heating in Victoria, just space heating nothing else, adds about one third to Victoria's total winter electricity consumption assuming heat pumps (reverse cycle air-conditioning) as the primary technology.

So it's not about annual figures so much as it's about daily or 4 hourly. Eg at present Victoria has a gas surplus on an annual basis but is very close to shortage on a daily basis during peak season.

 

[Smurf1976]

Maybe look into it a bit more, the government is very convinced of its huge resources. There are multiple companies up there drilling and proving up reserves.

And a little further north there is plenty of gas offshore to.

200,000 PJ gas in place.

Now how much of that is technically and economically recoverable?

That's the bit there's interest in - that which is available at an economical price. Thus far, the numbers being thrown around aren't zero but they're far smaller.

The other issue, the big one, is simply timeframe.

I'm not intending to be negative for the sake of being negative there but suffice to say my job's to spot what can go wrong and in that context, pretty much everything in recent years has been a case of "over promise and under deliver". With a few exceptions there's been an awful lot of that which has lead to the point we're at right now.

In theory I'd like to believe we can prove up a gas resource, drill the wells, build a processing plant and pipelines and so on then build gas turbines at the other end and a switchyard to go with them and do it all quickly. In practice however I'm all too aware that it's taken years (and counting) to get agreement to change some timers meanwhile SA - NSW interconnection, now finally under physical construction, has been proposed since 1994.

So my perspective is very much one where most things take far longer than anyone thought possible. The reason being red tape not because the workers are standing around.

 

[Value Collector]

Existing pipeline nameplate ratings:

NT to Qld via Northern Gas Pipeline = 90 TJ / day
Ballera (SW Qld) to Mt Isa = 119 TJ / day
Noting Mt Isa region demand is presently 88 TJ / day on average

Ballera - Moomba (SA) = 453 TJ / day

Moomba gas production = 270 TJ / day

Moomba - Adelaide pipeline = 249 TJ / day
Moomba - Sydney pipeline = 489 TJ / day

Victoria - NSW interconnect (the only one capable of sending gas from another state into Vic) = 212 TJ / day.

Those are nameplate ratings with everything working.

So realistically there's a very real limit to the extent to which any gas produced in the NT can be supplied to the south-eastern states.

Gas consumption between Vic, NSW, SA, and Tas combined runs at an average of about 1170 TJ / day with routine peak about 2000 TJ / day.

Noting there that Victoria accounts for about 51% of the average and about 60% of the routine peak consumption so is the dominant consuming state of that group. SA accounts for 20% of the average 18% of the peak with the rest being mostly NSW. Tasmania's gas consumption being trivial.

Key issue going forward being not the average but the peak. To the extent gas is used to firm VRE during prolonged periods (multiple days) of low VRE yield, that drives up the peak gas consumption far more than it increases average consumption thus leading to a deliverability issue.

That issue already exists at a theoretical level. That is, the gas supply limit to the gas-fired generators under cold weather conditions is substantially lower than the maximum consumption rate of those same generators. Thus far it hasn't mattered most of the time and, when it has, the workaround has been to quietly switch to diesel (especially at night... ) but it's a gas constraint nonetheless. No issue during warm weather due to far lower gas reticulation demand especially in Victoria.

Relating to that is a long term trend toward higher peak and lower average need for gas-fired generation. That is, if it's to be used to firm VRE (rather than building more hydro for example as an alternative) then that need, in terms of total energy output, primarily occurs during cold winter weather. That's when the periods of low VRE yield occur, from mid-autumn onwards, and it's also the season where the greatest growth in electricity consumption is expected due to electrification. Just phasing out gas space heating in Victoria, just space heating nothing else, adds about one third to Victoria's total winter electricity consumption assuming heat pumps (reverse cycle air-conditioning) as the primary technology.

So it's not about annual figures so much as it's about daily or 4 hourly. Eg at present Victoria has a gas surplus on an annual basis but is very close to shortage on a daily basis during peak season.

Things are a bit more advanced than I think your realise, they have APA on board and are building a new pipeline to deliver the gas to eastern markets.

And as I mentioned this is only part of the solution, there is the Narrabri field which APA is linking to the hunter gas project, and santos is also building pipelines to connect Narrabri into the eastern grid.

 

[Value Collector]

200,000 PJ gas in place.

Now how much of that is technically and economically recoverable?

That's the bit there's interest in - that which is available at an economical price. Thus far, the numbers being thrown around aren't zero but they're far smaller

The other issue, the big one, is simply timeframe.

Even if just 10% of it is recoverable, that would run the east coast of Australia for 10+ years.