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That's the problem with privatisation and renewable energy, as we keep saying you need a hell of a lot more than you actually consume and the private companies don't get paid for it, so someone has to foot the bill.Whether or not it's relevant to us, I found this piece interesting.
The reality of the enormity hasn't sunk in yet.Rumblings that gas is the next thing to go. I've always preferred gas hot water. I'd often get the short end with big family-cold showers.
Even gas heating will heat a room in a matter of minutes (I don't use heaters generally). Rather than electric heaters. I suppose air-conditioning but it's still blasting huge amounts of electricity.
A lot of supposed "eco tech" seems like it's not going to fill the gap or it's a poor outcome alternative to practicality.
There's a push for the electrification of everything but the ambitions seem bigger than the abilities. It's hard to see just the electricity grid being sorted.
Tasmania:There's a push for the electrification of everything but the ambitions seem bigger than the abilities.
Yep all true. In fact the opportunity to create diverse small scale hydro batteries has already been opened.Tasmania:
. At the national level we need a drastic upscaling of wind, solar, transmission and, dare I say it, hydro.
At a national scale we need to actually make some statements as to guidelines and access to land, so that the implementation can actually accelerate IMO, at the moment it is all huff and puff the AEMO apparently says we need to move on.Therein lies the problem. If we're to transition energy use to electricity, and we're to transition exports away from coal and gas and toward processed minerals, and if we're do all that with renewable energy then we're not going to do it without breaking some eggs. At the national level we need a drastic upscaling of wind, solar, transmission and, dare I say it, hydro.
The revolt against the destruction of Lake Pedder and the further expansion of Tasmanias very large hydro schemes was one of balance. Still is in my mind.
Technically it can be done sure.Underground power lines or not?
As a clarification to what I'm on about with hydro, it's not about generating bulk power and nor is it about meeting daily peak demand. Wind and solar can do the former whilst batteries and relatively short duration storage (hydro, batteries) can do the latter.
Going forward, what we need hydro or gas turbines for is to fill in the gaps. The days when the sun and the wind both fail simultaneously and yes it happens.
12 month daily wind and solar output chart for Victoria:
View attachment 158487
And for SA:
View attachment 158488
And WA:
View attachment 158490
Look closely and you'll see the problem. Days when wind and solar both fall to low levels and which, not always but often, coincides with relatively cold weather.
Now at present most space heating in Victoria and much of it in WA and SA is supplied by non-electric means, primarily gas, but if the aim's to move to renewable energy then that needs to change. So we then get higher demand for electricity - at the very same time, the exact same days, when we get poor wind and solar yield.
As per the AEMO Integrated System Plan, CSIRO work and the efforts of various others, there are two basic options on the table to address this problem:
1. Large storage hydro.
2. Gas turbines or other fuel-burning plant.
AEMO's number crunching comes up with 19GW required across the NEM with existing hydro and Snowy 2.0 between them providing 9GW of that, leaving 10GW assumed to be provided by gas turbines or diesel engines.
My argument, given the high financial cost and known environmental impact of gas and diesel, is that the hydro alternatives ought be objectively evaluated from that perspective as a known technically viable alternative.
In a technical sense that works simply because if you've got a dam that stores 2, 3 or 5 years' worth of river flows, and that is indeed the scale of such projects, then that gives absolute control over when that water's released. Whenever the wind and sun fall in a heap, or there's some other unexpected problem, that's when it comes to the rescue. Rest of the time it just sits there slowly filling up.
As a concept that's a bit like a worker who just puts regular contribution into a separate account or a managed fund and leaves it there. That's the fund to draw on when the proverbial hits the fan and there's a need to fill a gap. When the car engine blows up or there's a pandemic or whatever, that money comes to the rescue but it's not for regular spending. Same concept.
There'd be some places where almost certainly a conservation argument wins out from a rational assessment, the impact of oil and gas is less bad than putting a National Park underwater, but there'd almost certainly be other sites where it's a no-brainer to dam them ASAP rather than be burning fossil fuels.
So I'm saying evaluate the lot and compare them to the gas / diesel alternative. I'm not saying dam the lot, just that an unbiased approach ought be taken.
With that in mind I'll add my opinion that there's a very real chance the whole thing gets derailed in the not too distant future. When people are getting huge increases in their bills, and increases in the 40% - 70% range aren't at all uncommon, well that goes beyond simply being something that people disagree with. It's not like seeing some issue on the news where people think OK, they don't agree with that but if it's going to happen well no big deal.
No, this is different to that and quite simply there's more than a few who can not pay. I repeat - can not pay. They don't need some politician expressing sympathy, they don't need a loan that only delays the inevitable, they need the problem fixed because quite simply they can't pay the bills. For those on lower incomes that's here right now and even those in the middle it's going to sting when they start getting bills over $1000 on a regular basis as many will.
This could well blow up very spectacularly at the political level and what happens next becomes anyone's guess but it's unlikely to be good. As I've pointed out to many, there was quite a bit of momentum to deal with the emissions issue in the late-1980's through 1990. Then the recession hit and not another word was said until late that decade. We could well see a repeat of that so my view is very much that a workable solution, an economical one, needs to be implemented ASAP because time's very quickly running out.
Chris Bowen is ageing very quickly, as I said in another thread, the reality of the issues are catching up to the enormity of the issues.This could well blow up very spectacularly at the political level and what happens next becomes anyone's guess but it's unlikely to be good. As I've pointed out to many, there was quite a bit of momentum to deal with the emissions issue in the late-1980's through 1990. Then the recession hit and not another word was said until late that decade. We could well see a repeat of that so my view is very much that a workable solution, an economical one, needs to be implemented ASAP because time's very quickly running out.
Yes, for long duration firming, fossil fuel, nuke or hydro, of which none are acceptable or readily available ATM.So with renewables you either firm with fossil fuels, nuke or hydro?
They don't have one.What was the plan for 100% renewables if that is the case?
In a nutshell, at the moment, it is called winging it.How would it even be done with renewables- every house gets a battery or something. Or just huge batteries (that I can't imagine would be feasible)?
The thing with renewables is they are intermittent, whereas fossil fueled generation is at call whenever it is needed, as long as there is fuel available.So my understanding (and anyone feel free to correct me because I don't really know)
is that renewables are a cheap source of power. But the actual transition off one of the current firming measures is where the costs start to really add up?
If the above is true, were we sold on a partial truth about the cost?
Is this why all the countries that have gone renewable is experiencing higher costs despite the low cost energy renewables produce?
Essential it works at a smaller scale and even that doesn't make financial sense until battery prices come down.
As a concept fully agree.I'll put forward another alternative. Gas turbines don't need to run on gas, Brazil runs theirs on ethanol produced mainly from sugar cane which we produce a lot of.
Why depend on a diminishing resource like gas when we can grow our own fuel in perpetuity?
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