The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

This is the sort of climate change stuff that will have to be dealt with in a 'renewable environment'.

The big problem in all this is tribalism.

One one side are those in the Coal Tribe who argue that renewables can't possibly work. On the other side are those in the Sunny Wind Tribe who refuse to acknowledge the technical realities.

Both promptly latch onto any failure which occurs among the other tribe, this being dutifully reported by their allied media.

Associated is that the general public simply doesn't realise the extent to which the media's aligned with one tribe or the other and feeding them nonsense. They see something reported as terrible and simply don't realise that it's actually not in any way abnormal. But since it came from their tribe, and the bad thing is about the other tribe, they lap it up.

As a case in point, of the 48 coal-fired steam units in the NEM, 40 are operational at present.

The Coal Tribe will report that as "40 units all running well" meanwhile the Sunny Wind Tribe will report that as "8 coal failures".

What's the truth?

40 is spot on the number you'd expect to be working at any given time given the number in service. It's neither good nor bad and simply a reality that outages, both planned maintenance and breakdowns, do occur especially when the fleet's mostly rather old. It's not a heroic performance but it's not a bad one either, it's par for the course.

That 8 out of service includes unit C4 at Callide in Queensland which is still out of service following the major incident on 25 May 2021. Current estimated return to service is 7 April 2023 if all goes to plan.

 

[Smurf1976]

For those in the West, 6 of 7 remaining coal units are on.

Bluewaters 1 & 2, Muja C & D all on. Collie is off.

So again that's just as would be expected given the fleet size and it's not "bad" that Collie isn't running, just reflection of reality that this stuff has outages, maintenance needs doing and so on.

 

[SirRumpole]

The big problem in all this is tribalism.

One one side are those in the Coal Tribe who argue that renewables can't possibly work. On the other side are those in the Sunny Wind Tribe who refuse to acknowledge the technical realities.

Both promptly latch onto any failure which occurs among the other tribe, this being dutifully reported by their allied media.

Associated is that the general public simply doesn't realise the extent to which the media's aligned with one tribe or the other and feeding them nonsense. They see something reported as terrible and simply don't realise that it's actually not in any way abnormal. But since it came from their tribe, and the bad thing is about the other tribe, they lap it up.

As a case in point, of the 48 coal-fired steam units in the NEM, 40 are operational at present.

The Coal Tribe will report that as "40 units all running well" meanwhile the Sunny Wind Tribe will report that as "8 coal failures".

What's the truth?

40 is spot on the number you'd expect to be working at any given time given the number in service. It's neither good nor bad and simply a reality that outages, both planned maintenance and breakdowns, do occur especially when the fleet's mostly rather old. It's not a heroic performance but it's not a bad one either, it's par for the course.

That 8 out of service includes unit C4 at Callide in Queensland which is still out of service following the major incident on 25 May 2021. Current estimated return to service is 7 April 2023 if all goes to plan.

As you said before, education of the public is essential to solving the problem.

Journalists can't do it, they don't understand the technicalities, we need engineers like yourself to speak out, although I completely understand that as you are still in the industry it's not possible to talk outside the narrow confines of this forum.

You have mentioned Jeff Dimery but he's involved in the industry also, so it seems that the general public will continue to rely on the chaff spouted by the politicians.

 

[sptrawler]

For those in the West, 6 of 7 remaining coal units are on.

Bluewaters 1 & 2, Muja C & D all on. Collie is off.

So again that's just as would be expected given the fleet size and it's not "bad" that Collie isn't running, just reflection of reality that this stuff has outages, maintenance needs doing and so on.

That's interesting Muja unit 5 is scheduled to be retired Oct this year, so as you say they must be doing a major O/H on Collie, as we head into winter and pre the decommissioning of unit 5.

 

[sptrawler]

Someone was quoting cost blowouts on large infrastructure projects, well even a ring road around a country town in W.A has blown out by $1billion dollars and it is probably only going to be a bypass for tourists to Margaret River/ Busselton region.
A bit off topic, but does highlight the problem with cost and time blowouts on major projects.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03...st-blows-out-to-one-billion-dollars/100947352

Work is already under way to build the 27-kilometre Bunbury Outer Ring Road, which will take trucks off local roads and reduce travel time for people driving to Busselton and Margaret River by up to 15 minutes.

The project was slated to cost $852 million but figures released ahead of today's federal budget have revealed the road will now cost just over a billion dollars – or $37 million per kilometre
The Commonwealth has promised $320 million more than initially allocated for the road, which has been planned for decades.
It is the latest Western Australian infrastructure project to get more expensive, with labour shortages and supply delays taking its toll on projects around Australia.

 

[Smurf1976]

tourists to Margaret River/ Busselton region.

Bit off topic but I've been to Busselton once.

If the weather when I was there was in any way typical then it would be a really, really good spot for a wind farm....

Walked all the way out on the jetty despite the wind. Then it started raining.

 

[sptrawler]

Bit off topic but I've been to Busselton once.

If the weather when I was there was in any way typical then it would be a really, really good spot for a wind farm....

Walked all the way out on the jetty despite the wind. Then it started raining.

The bay there is very shallow, so they could fit a massive windfarm there. But I don't think the elite's, who have beach front properties, would allow it, being green is o.k over a chardonnay, but not in their front yard. ?

 

[Smurf1976]

Just an update regarding Liddell power station which has been the subject of much controversy and a major dispute between AGL and the federal government in recent years.

Unit 3 final shutdown at approximately 9:20am NSW local time Friday 1 April 2020 .

A normal, orderly shutdown nothing dramatic apart from being "The End" after half a century of operation.

Units 1, 2 and 4 are still operating and will continue for another 12 months when they too will be shut.

Separate to that, there's quite a bit of cost pressure building at the moment. The soaring price of black coal and petroleum fuels has been widely reported elsewhere but now we're seeing Australian domestic market gas prices rise as well.

Gas was around the $10 mark in recent months but now up to $15 over the past few days as the weather cools and demand ticks up slightly. Still a long way short of the LNG netback price circa $40 but still, it's getting more costly.

At the wholesale level electricity prices in NSW and especially Qld are rising as a result. Less impact in other states thus far.

 

[Humid]

Someone was quoting cost blowouts on large infrastructure projects, well even a ring road around a country town in W.A has blown out by $1billion dollars and it is probably only going to be a bypass for tourists to Margaret River/ Busselton region.
A bit off topic, but does highlight the problem with cost and time blowouts on major projects.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03...st-blows-out-to-one-billion-dollars/100947352

Work is already under way to build the 27-kilometre Bunbury Outer Ring Road, which will take trucks off local roads and reduce travel time for people driving to Busselton and Margaret River by up to 15 minutes.

The project was slated to cost $852 million but figures released ahead of today's federal budget have revealed the road will now cost just over a billion dollars – or $37 million per kilometre
The Commonwealth has promised $320 million more than initially allocated for the road, which has been planned for decades.
It is the latest Western Australian infrastructure project to get more expensive, with labour shortages and supply delays taking its toll on projects around Australia.

Blown out by a Billion....math not your strong point
Stick to grammar

 

[sptrawler]

Blown out by a Billion....math not your strong point
Stick to grammar

You spotted it, at least it shows your reading is improving. ?

 

[Humid]

You spotted it, at least it shows your reading is improving. ?

Even got a like....
It is but your math comparing 20% to 400%+ is a cracker

 

[sptrawler]

Even got a like....
It is but your math comparing 20% to 400%+ is a cracker

Yes, didn't read the article just the headline, my bad. ?

 

[Humid]

You could get a job at the Murdoch press or Sky News

 

[sptrawler]

You could get a job at the Murdoch press or Sky News

I could never work as a reporter, always looking for the negative in every issue, it would be too depressing for me.
A bit like the police, always interacting with the seedy sector of society, would eventually make me cynical and think the worst of everyone.
I think there re some jobs, you just have to be cut out for, journo's, police, politicians, business owners, they all take certain character traits IMO.

 

[SirRumpole]

Is prickly acacia the new 'green coal' ?

Noxious weed to become 'green coal' at new plant in outback Queensland

For years, prickly acacia has been the bane of many a farmer's existence. Now it is set to become a valuable renewable energy source.

www.abc.net.au

 

[macca]

Is prickly acacia the new 'green coal' ?

Noxious weed to become 'green coal' at new plant in outback Queensland

For years, prickly acacia has been the bane of many a farmer's existence. Now it is set to become a valuable renewable energy source.

www.abc.net.au

Hopefully it is financially viable, clearing or reducing it would certainly add value to the farms

 

[sptrawler]

The human side of coal plant closures and the disbelief of the workers, when they are told the closure is being brought forward 7 years, this same issue is happening throughout Australia.
It really does hammer small country towns that built up around the power stations and the mines that supply them, the house prices collapse, people without trades have very few transferable skill sets, those who are between 40-55 are really affected.
Hopefully the State Governments can transform the towns into vibrant communities with a future.
In W.A Collie which is having the same issues is in a fairly fortunate position, it has very attractive forest surrounding i a major coastal town is only 60klm away and Perth is only 200klm.
There are bauxite, lithium and gold mines close by and the government has poured a lot of money into facelifting the town, building a motorplex complex etc.
Hopefully over East things can be done.

Jonno knows he's about to lose his job of 19 years — and he has no idea what to do next

Shock, denial, stress, anger. Workers are struggling to comprehend the early closure of Australia’s largest coal-fired power station and the plan for what comes next.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting the Federal Government is trying to get the rules changed on notification of closure of coal power stations, currently the notice must be 3.5 years the Government wants it out to 5 years, as we have said like the ICE car manufacturers the coal generators are becoming an albatross around the companies necks.
If I was a coal power station owner, I would be closing ASAP and buying into the renewables, because as with rooftop solar there will only be a certain window of opportunity where just about anything can be shoved into the system.
As times go by more regulation around what can and can't be installed and where it has to be located will limit opportunity and increase costs, meanwhile the cost to keep the coal plant running will increase and the opportunities to close them early will decrease, while new entrants are taking up the available new renewable space.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04...lay-coal-fired-power-plant-closures/100972478
From the article:
The Federal Government is seeking to introduce new rules to ensure energy companies provide five years' notice before closing power stations, amid concerns about reliability and affordability.
Under the current rules — set by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) rather than the government — electricity companies need to provide at least 3.5 years' notice of an upcoming closure.
Mr Taylor will today argue that length of time does not give the sector long enough to invest or develop new projects that could replace the electricity provided by closing plants.
The federal government does not set these rules and, instead, makes a submission to the AEMC and lobbies for the change.
If accepted, the rule change would not impact closures that have already been announced, such as Eraring or the closure of the Liddell power station that is operated by AGL.
When Origin announced the early closure of the Eraring plant in February, Mr Taylor noted the company had given the minimum notice period of 3.5 years.

 

[SirRumpole]

Interesting the Federal Government is trying to get the rules changed on notification of closure of coal power stations, currently the notice must be 3.5 years the Government wants it out to 5 years, as we have said like the ICE car manufacturers the coal generators are becoming an albatross around the companies necks.
If I was a coal power station owner, I would be closing ASAP and buying into the renewables, because as with rooftop solar there will only be a certain window of opportunity where just about anything can be shoved into the system.
As times go by more regulation around what can and can't be installed and where it has to be located will limit opportunity and increase costs, meanwhile the cost to keep the coal plant running will increase and the opportunities to close them early will decrease, while new entrants are taking up the available new renewable space.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04...lay-coal-fired-power-plant-closures/100972478
From the article:
The Federal Government is seeking to introduce new rules to ensure energy companies provide five years' notice before closing power stations, amid concerns about reliability and affordability.
Under the current rules — set by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) rather than the government — electricity companies need to provide at least 3.5 years' notice of an upcoming closure.
Mr Taylor will today argue that length of time does not give the sector long enough to invest or develop new projects that could replace the electricity provided by closing plants.
The federal government does not set these rules and, instead, makes a submission to the AEMC and lobbies for the change.
If accepted, the rule change would not impact closures that have already been announced, such as Eraring or the closure of the Liddell power station that is operated by AGL.
When Origin announced the early closure of the Eraring plant in February, Mr Taylor noted the company had given the minimum notice period of 3.5 years.

What about a requirement to replace the output of of a coal station with equivalent in renewable generation, and if they can't do that then hand the coal plant back to the government ?

 

[sptrawler]

What about a requirement to replace the output of of a coal station with equivalent in renewable generation, and if they can't do that then hand the coal plant back to the government ?

I tend to think that is what will happen, eventually the private operators will have to decide whether to just write it off or replace it with an alternative, when that time comes the Government will probably have to buy out the remaining stations to wear the loses but have the at call generation.
At the moment there is obviously enough available capacity for system security, but once these two big stations close, it will start and put more pressure on the remaining ones.
It certainly will be interesting, by the mid to late 2030's IMO.