The future of energy generation and storage

rederob said:

PEM and hydrogen pathways.

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Great link Rob, I'm with you on hydrogen, the advantages of hydrogen will soon absorb a lot of development money.
The major things hydrogen has over battery is, energy density and the simplicity of scaling up production, which actually ends up meaning more energy to sell. The other freeby is very little waste residue.
So everything else, just becomes a technical issue, to overcome IMO.
On a personal note, I'm just pleased that my taxes aren't being thrown at it, so that I pay for the same end result.
I already pay enough for electricity and am happy with my car.
So if AGL, Origin etc want to sell electricity they had better start and replace their plant, I shouldn't have to subsidies it, I buy your product it is your responsibility to update or replace it. If not get out of the game.
If VW, FORD etc want me to replace my car, start and make affordable BEV's and standardise charging protocol, then we the taxpayer may put in charging infrastructure, until then either pick up your act or go out of business.
Just my opinion.

sptrawler said:

Really interesting article on the power generation front, obviously a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes, quietly getting on with business I would say.

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That's basically it.

Those at the top (government) seem to have grasped that there's a problem to fix but the downside is that there's years of work to be caught up and stuff all time in which to do it. The clock's ticking in a big way.

Until something new is actually built, there's an ongoing reliance on plant that can only be described as old and tired and in some cases extremely so.

Ultimately it's going to happen but you won't find anyone willing to say there won't be some incidents between now and then. That's not about fossils versus renewables, it's just about old and tired equipment that's past its expected lifespan and isn't in good shape. Chance of breakdowns etc is extremely high indeed rather a lot of such incidents are actually occurring, it's just that most don't make the mainstream news.

For one that has been publicly announced, only last week there was a major incident involving unit 3 at Liddell power station. A worker ended up seriously injured and the initial estimate is repairs by the end of February 2021.


So yes, getting on with it but there's an awful lot of catching up to do in order to replace what's at end of life etc.

Its all falling in a hole as you have been saying for some time smurf, IMO the generators are quietly letting the plant run down, then when the $hit hits the fan say we cant afford to replace it.
The government drawing a line in the sand makes sense, if the private sector dont want to put in the capital outlay, the government should say fine, if the taxpayer has to fund it they may as well own it.
Great move Imo.

As we have been saying on ASF for some time, the transition to renewables in Australia is happening at an incredibly fast rate, the problem is going to be getting the system reconfigured fast enough to cope with it and at the same time keeping the lights on.
Interesting article and shows that the situation is indeed being monitored, also as we said earlier, they seem to be quietly getting on with business.
That is a lot better than over promising and under delivering, which has been the norm for a long, long time. The electrical system IMO should not be in the news, it is something that should be constantly ahead of the game and as many of us say should never have been privatised.
Now it has, it becomes very difficult to control loss making generators, as they are no doubt finding out.

From the article:

The unexpectedly rapid rise of renewables is driving more and more clean and cheap energy into the electricity grid, but urgent reforms are needed to avoid price rises and power failures, according to the Commonwealth's Energy Security Board.

A deluge of new wind and solar projects, in addition to household rooftop solar, is outstrippingpredictions.

Energy Security Board chair Kerry Schott said the current growth in renewables was on track with the fastest rate of change foreseen by the Australian Energy Market Operator, released in its official modelling in July.

The market operator's "step change" scenario anticipates renewables will grow from 37 per cent of the energy mix in 2020 to 63 per cent by 2030 and 94 per cent by 2040.

This rate of change exceeds the federal government's projections, released in November, which said renewables would comprise 55 per cent of the power mix by 2030.

"It's very good for emissions, but it means coal plants will retire faster than anybody thinks," Ms Schott said. "Already, we're seeing big coal plants are being operated below full capacity and they're doing what they can to keep costs down."

One example of the challenges from energy change is the world-leading growth in rooftop solar which generates so much power that demand from the grid in major cities is wiped out during the day, creating a headache for network operators in managing the constant baseload output from the old fleet of coal and gas plants.
Another challenge was co-ordinating plans between governments to ensure there was sufficient dispatchable power supply from gas, hydro and batteries to balance demand in the grid when there were fluctuations in wind and solar power, Ms Schott said.

Currently, energy generators and network operators have only been paid for supplying power to customers, but market design reforms already being rolled out through the ESB will create payments for storage services, system strength and frequency control.
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"Major changes are needed to unlock value to customers and ensure capital investments are made in an efficient and timely manner to deliver the affordable, reliable and secure electricity consumers need," Ms Schott said.

The ESB was established by the Commonwealth of Australian Governments Energy Council in 2017 to advise on market transition, which requires co-operation among state and Commonwealth governments as they share responsibilities for networks and regulation.
Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor agreed it was "critical" to act swiftly and manage the transition from coal to renewables.

Another article covering the same issue, rapid ramp up of renewables and non competitive fossil fueled generation being relied upon for dispatchable generation. Which leads to the next obvious stage, who is going to wear the cost of the stranded assets, being fossil fueled power stations?
Luckily in W.A the major coal generators are still Government owned, selling off the electrical generation over East is coming home to roost, the States that made the money from privatising them are now wearing the cost of sorting the problem. Hopefully it doesn't become a cost to taxpayers in States that didn't privatise their electrical system.
From the article:

Energy Users' Association of Australia chief executive Andrew Richards said state and federal governments all shouldered some of the blame for the current disjointed policy.

Driven by a need to replace ageing coal fired power plants, NSW and Victoria announced separate targets to drive more renewable energy into the grid.
Mr Richards said the imposition of different standards and requirements across jurisdictions created unnecessary complexity for power generators and retailers, which would "lead to higher costs" for electricity customers.

"It's been quite disappointing that Victoria and NSW have been fully aware of and endorsed the ESB's work program, but they've gone their own way anyway," Mr Richards said.

"You could argue they've turned their back on the national reform that they have endorsed by implementing their own state-based plans."

More large scale storage to go in at Origin and Neon plants:
$1bn batteries for power plants
Two of the world’s biggest batteries, worth a combined $1bn, will be built at the sites of NSW coal plants in a move to ease strains in the power grid.

Add that to the already announced AGL installations and some serious battery storage is starting to be installed:

The news of the Victoria battery means that AGL will have big batteries in all four mainland states of the National Electricity Market. Last week it announced a 250MW battery with up to four hours storage at the site of the Torrens Island gas generator in South Australia, it has already contracted for 200MW and 400MWh of battery storage in NSW, and a 100MW and 150MWh big battery at Wandoan in Queensland.

It is also looking at a 50MW battery at Broken Hill and may also build a big battery of up to 500MW at the site of the Liddell coal generator in the Hunter Valley which is due to close in 2023, although it is now re-considering this investment in the light of the NSW renewable energy plan.

If then the 2GW Snowy 2.0, the Tassie battery and second undersea cable to Tasmania is included, we are starting to install some really solid storage.

More info on the Origin energy BIG battery:
From the article:

Origin Energy has unveiled plans to build a giant 700-megawatt capacity battery at its coal-fired power plant in Eraring, south of Newcastle, in the New South Wales Hunter region.

If the plan goes ahead, the battery would be more than four times larger than the 150-megawatt Tesla battery in South Australia.

Origin's executive general manager Greg Jarvis said the battery would support Origin's transition away from coal-fired power generation by 2032.

The battery will also support the New South Wales energy grid's transition away from fossil fuels and the entry of new solar and wind projects in coming decades.

"We recognise we have an important role to play in positioning Origin's electricity generation portfolio to support Australia's rapid transition to renewables," Mr Jarvis said.

"A large-scale battery at Eraring will help us better support renewable energy and maintain reliable supply for customers, by having long duration storage ready to dispatch into the grid at times when renewable sources are not available.

"The deployment of this battery at Eraring will support Origin's orderly transition away from coal-fired generation by 2032, while complementing the policy objectives of the NSW energy road map."

sptrawler said:

More info on the Origin energy BIG battery:

Largest battery in Australia to be built on site of ageing coal-fired power plant

Origin Energy unveils plans to build a 700-megawatt battery, which will be the largest in Australia and four times bigger than Tesla's battery in South Australia, in a bid to move the company away from fossil fuel power over the next 10 years.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:

Origin Energy has unveiled plans to build a giant 700-megawatt capacity battery at its coal-fired power plant in Eraring, south of Newcastle, in the New South Wales Hunter region.

If the plan goes ahead, the battery would be more than four times larger than the 150-megawatt Tesla battery in South Australia.

Origin's executive general manager Greg Jarvis said the battery would support Origin's transition away from coal-fired power generation by 2032.

The battery will also support the New South Wales energy grid's transition away from fossil fuels and the entry of new solar and wind projects in coming decades.

"We recognise we have an important role to play in positioning Origin's electricity generation portfolio to support Australia's rapid transition to renewables," Mr Jarvis said.

"A large-scale battery at Eraring will help us better support renewable energy and maintain reliable supply for customers, by having long duration storage ready to dispatch into the grid at times when renewable sources are not available.

"The deployment of this battery at Eraring will support Origin's orderly transition away from coal-fired generation by 2032, while complementing the policy objectives of the NSW energy road map."

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" That is enough to store power for 3.5 million homes. "

For how long ?

SirRumpole said:

" That is enough to store power for 3.5 million homes. "

For how long ?

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It is just great the big generators are stepping up to the plate, I think the Government telling them they will build a brand new high efficiency 1GW gas plant, would have put the wind up them.
If they think they are having trouble competing with intermittent renewable generation, imagine how much trouble they would have with old plant competing with brand new large capacity combined cycle, for a piece of the dispatchable generation space. It would be goodnight irene. ?
In reality it is all starting to look really good, @Smurf1976 will have overall numbers, but from what I've been reading Australia seems to be doing a really decent job of the balancing act. There is a long way to go, but it does seem to be coming together and people are starting to get on the same page.
The companies hanging around with the begging bowl look, waiting for a handout or incentive, seems to be evaporating. They all appear to be working out how to keep their market share, which is exactly what they should be doing.

@Smurf1976 , how much battery storage capacity is being proposed,? if you can say.
Just wondering because there seems to be a lot of announcements happening.

SirRumpole said:

" That is enough to store power for 3.5 million homes. "

For how long ?

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Well Rumpy, that is where it all becomes fluid ?
If you check your electric meter at 8am and then go back the next day and check it again, and it shows a reading of an extra 10Kw/hrs.
That then means you have used 10Kw/Hrs of electricity, or 10 units.
Right, so if the person next door has a McMansion, they may find with their ducted A/C and heated swimming pool their meter shows they used 50units.
Therefore the 3.5 million homes, is very subjective, as it feeds into a grid it would depend who is on the grid and how they work out the demand.
Is that average household demand, or median household demand, or minimum household demand, ah statistics they can paint any picture you want.

sptrawler said:

@Smurf1976 , how much battery storage capacity is being proposed,? if you can say.
Just wondering because there seems to be a lot of announcements happening.

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I don't know the exact answer, it's a rapidly moving target with an "arms race" of sorts seemingly underway and announcements are almost literally a daily event at the moment. I'll see if I can come up with an accurate list.

All up, I'm aware that there are various companies looking at collectively building many thousands of MW. Some of those are certain goers, some are genuine intents but not yet certain, some are pie in the sky dreaming.

Some of those are companies with existing generation and at least reasonable engineering capability and industry experience. Then there's the "financial" companies who think they've found an easy way to make money.....

Following is a list of the battery projects across the mainland NEM states (Qld, NSW, Vic, SA) that I'm aware of.

Note this includes only actual large grid-connected batteries.

Not included is any form of hydro, compressed air storage, hydrogen storage or small household scale batteries including those subject to remote control ("Virtual Power Plant"). Only actual large batteries are on the list.

I've used the AEMO definitions of "Committed" and have put anything not in that category or already operating in the "Proposed" category.

For some of the "proposed" ones it's a technicality, the Victorian Big Battery (that's it's actual official name by the way) is a goer in practice whilst some of the more speculative ones have virtually zero chance.

Existing (Victoria):
Ballarat Energy Storage System - 30 MW / 30 MWh
Gannawarra Energy Storage System - 25 MW / 50 MWh

Existing (SA):
Dalrymple BESS - 30 MW / 8 MWh
Hornsdale Power Reserve - 150 MW / 186.5 MWh
Lake Bonney BESS - 25 MW / 52 MWh

Committed:
Bulgana Green Power Hub - 20 MW / 34 MWh (Victoria)
Kennedy Energy Park Phase 1 - 2 MW / 4 MWh (Queensland)

Proposed (SA):
Adelaide Desalination Plant - 6.27 MW / 13 MWh (SA Water)
Bolivar Waste Water Treatment Plant - 2.46 MW / 5 MWh (SA Water)
Christies Beach Waste Water Treatment Plant - 2.09 MW / 4 MWh (SA Water)
Crystal Brook Energy Park - 130 MW / 400 MWh
Goyder Sough Hub - 900 MW / ? MWh
Happy Valley Reservoir - 3.78 MW / 9 MWh (SA Water)
Heathgate Resources Beverly Mine - 1 MW / ? MWh
Kingfisher Solar Storage - 100 MW / ? MWh
Lincoln Gap Wind Farm - 10 MW / 10 MWh
Riverland Solar Storage - 100 MW / ? MWh
Snowtown North Solar Farm - 20 MW / ? MWh
Tailem Bend Battery Project - 42 MW / 84 MWh
Torrens Island Power Station - 250 MW / 1000 MWh (AGL)

Proposed (Queensland):
Cape York - 20 MW / ? MWh
Collinsville North Battery Project - 150 MW / 300 MWh
Gympie Regional Energy Hub - 1000 MW / 4000 MWh
Ipswich Regional Energy Hub - 1000 MW / 1000 MWh
Kaban Green Power Hub - 100 MW / ? MWh
Wandoan South - 100 MW / 150 MWh (AGL)
Wivenhoe Regional Energy Hub - 1000 MW / 1000 MWh

Proposed (Victoria):
Inverleigh Wind Farm Storage - 12 MW / ? MWh
Kentbruck Green Power Hub - 900 MW / ? MWh
Loy Yang A Power Station - 200 MW / ? MWh (AGL)
Nowingi Solar Storage - 80 MW / ? MWh
Victorian Big Battery - 300 MW / 450 MWh (Neoen / Tesla)

Proposed (NSW):
Eraring Power Station - 700 MW / 2800 MWh (Origin Energy)
Liddell Power Station - 150 MW up to 500 MW / MWh to be confirmed (AGL)
Maoneng Battery - 200 MW / 400 MWh across 4 sites (under contract to AGL)
Sapphire Wind Farm - ? MW / ? MWh
Walcha Energy Project Storage - ? MW / 150 MWh
Former Wallerawang Power Station Site - 500 MW / 1000 MWh (Energy Australia)
Wollar Solar Farm - ? MW / 30 MWh

For reference regarding the peak capacity, historic maximum demand by state:
NSW = 14,764 MW
Vic = 10,490 MW
Qld = 10,179 MW
SA = 3,397 MW

For reference regarding energy storage:
Snowy 2.0 expansion = 350,000 MWh
Hydro Tasmania existing system storage capacity = 14,400,000 MWh

My personal view:

AGL and Origin will go ahead with their publicly announced projects. If some technical issue comes up which precludes it, they'll come up with a replacement project but they won't abandon the idea as such, just modify it if necessary (though AGL is very determined to plonk a battery at the Liddell site - politics would make that very hard to not go through with).

Energy Australia will probably build a battery at Wallerawang and if not there then they'll build one somewhere else eg just up the road at Mt Piper power station or they'll find somewhere else but good chance they'll end up building something (wouldn't say it's 100% certain though).

Victorian Big Battery will get done - Victorian Government, Neoen and Tesla are all involved.

SA Water are motivated by factors other than simply operating in the NEM so they'll go ahead with their relatively small scale batteries at key treatment plants and pumping stations near Adelaide.

Many of the others are far more speculative, especially those with big round number capacities or no real details and backed by companies that don't presently operate in the NEM or have any relevant experience. Some will probably happen, some won't.

For other forms of storage:

Snowy 2.0 will be built. Politically impossible not to proceed.

Hydro Tas will leave no stone unturned in pursuing the Tasmanian pumped storage projects. Worth noting they've managed to get the Coalition and Labor singing the same song on this one so failure's fairly unlikely at this point.

The private sector will struggle to build major energy (MWh) storage in my view despite the enthusiasm for high power (MW) but low energy (MWh) options that is batteries. Storing bulk energy, that is pumped hydro, is simply too hard a sell to investors given the timeframes involved. Such capacity is crucial to any transition to a fully renewable energy system but it seems likely that governments will be the owners there.

The other big issue of course is how to manage the storage. That is, it's necessary to avoid a situation where one battery is say 80% charged and another is 5%, they need to be kept reasonably balanced otherwise the peak supply capacity from them ceases to be available and the lights go out. In a technical sense that's not impossible but it's more a question of who calls the shots? Given there's revenue implications for the owners, that could get "interesting" to say the least. Stand by to see a few "financial" companies with no energy industry experience burning investors money and also enjoy the show politically.

Managing storage is pretty straightforward from an engineering perspective but it'll end up being caught up in the ideological war I expect. By it's very nature, storage management is anti-competitive and is an exercise in real time dividing up of the market. That'll get the economic ideologues into a spin for sure, it's akin to asking an atheist to go around preaching religion, it doesn't fit their view of the world even slightly but it's a technical necessity.

With noting in that context that both of the existing Victorian battery owners have already put the lights out once through failing to co-operate with each other and with conventional forms of power generation. So it's a very real issue, there's already been an actual load shedding incident caused directly by it. My concern there is by no means theoretical in nature.

Chart showing battery operations in SA over the past 7 days:



As you can see, it's all extremely short term so far as charge and discharge cycles are concerned. Red line at the bottom is market price and note that yes it does go below zero, in the electricity market negative prices are a real thing and not too uncommon in SA especially.

Now a 7 day chart of hydro output across Tas, Vic, NSW and Qld combined (there's none of significance in SA). Note the very much longer duration of high or low production. Pumping loads, below the line, are relatively minor since most existing hydro in Australia (and all of it in Tas and Vic) is based on natural water sources not pumping but some pumped storage does exist in NSW and Qld.



And a 30 day chart of the same data with a daily resolution. As you can see, it's not at all unusual to get multiple consecutive days of high or low output according to requirements.

Point being there's a need for the larger storage capacity that hydro provides and which batteries cannot, at least at the present time, economically provide.

There's a definite role for both, I'm just stressing the point since there's a lot of enthusiasm about batteries and a danger that the reality that longer duration storage is also needed may end up being overlooked by many.

@Smurf1976 Firstly thanks for a couple of great informative posts
On the subject of batteries I think there is definitely an opportunity for a battery manufacturing plant in W.A IMO. We have the lithium hydroxide plant, the nickel processing plant within a couple of klm of each other, all we need is a company with money and a bit of vision IMO. There will be an ongoing demand for new batteries and replacement of old in Australia and a huge export market.
We talked about the fact large shopping centers and factory roof spaces should be used as solar panel sites wherever possible, it looks as though some are definitely looking into it, it makes absolute sense.
I'm surprised the state governments, haven't made it a requirement on any new industrial building, in the planning stage.
From the article:

The former Ford and General Motors Holden sites will soon become part of a network of rooftop solar farms and grid-scale batteries as part of a joint venture between Australia’s largest commercial and industrial real estate owner and a renewable energy company.

Ross Pelligra, chairman of the property giant Pelligra Group, said his organisation will give CEP Energy access to 10 million square metres of rooftop space it owns around the country, allowing the group to sell discounted energy directly to tenants engaged in power-hungry manufacturing processes, and to sell excess power to the grid.


Mr Pelligra said the scheme would help the group keep industrial tenants, some of whom have gone offshore over recent years due to concerns about the cost and reliability of energy in Australia.

Morris Iemma, the former NSW premier who is now CEP Energy chairman, said the larger sites owned by Pelligra were particularly well-suited to solar energy projects because they provide large amounts of space close to cities and industrial centres. They do not need expensive grid connections to be built, as is often the case with renewable developments in regional areas.

Pigeon poop a problem for panels.

This is competition in the power industry today.

More info on Snowy 2.0.

Anyone aware of this looks like a game changer.

World's first domestic hydrogen battery developed by Australian firm

LAVO’s chief executive, Alan Yu, says the unit can store three times as much power as the largest popular commercially available wall-mounted batteries, allowing it to power the average household for two to three days on a single charge.

IFocus said:

Anyone aware of this looks like a game changer.

World's first domestic hydrogen battery developed by Australian firm

LAVO’s chief executive, Alan Yu, says the unit can store three times as much power as the largest popular commercially available wall-mounted batteries, allowing it to power the average household for two to three days on a single charge.

Australian firm pioneers first domestic hydrogen battery

Governments are declaring hydrogen to be central to the future – and an Australian firm has developed a world first.

www.theage.com.au

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Perhaps a better critique