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The future of energy generation and storage

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Another key project recently announced (this week) is commencement of work on the Victoria to NSW interconnect West project.

The two states are already interconnected with limited capacity via the Snowy scheme but this will add an additional 1800 MW southbound / 1930 MW northbound which is critical given the shift to renewable generation and closure of existing facilities. Commissioning is planned for 2027.

Transmission isn't a solution in itself but it's a key part of the solution along with wind, solar, pumped hydro and batteries so it's heading in the right direction bearing in mind there's also the NSW - SA line plus a small upgrade of transmission Qld - NSW and the major 2 x 750 MW cables planned for Vic - Tas.

Meanwhile in the short term, well it all looks pretty stretched in Queensland for Tuesday next week. Not drastically so, the lights most likely will stay on, but there's not a lot of room to move based on present load forecasts and generation availability. If anything goes wrong then it could get more exciting......
 
Yet another trail starting, where individuals can buy and sell renewable generation into the grid, IMO this will bring about the change we have talked about where the household will be able to sell a percentage of their car's battery reserve or house battery storage into the market.
This will be groundbreaking IMO and will accelerate the uptake of renewables and storage, it all takes time, but it is better to get it right.

Victorian households to become national energy grid guinea pigs

Households and businesses in north-east Victoria will be able to buy and sell renewable electricity generated locally in a $28 million project that could be used as a blueprint for energy grids of the future.
www.theage.com.au
From the article:
Households and businesses in north-east Victoria will be able to buy and sell renewable electricity generated locally in a $28 million project that could be used as a blueprint for energy grids of the future.

It will initially involve 50 houses in the Hume region but will scale up to around 1000 residential, commercial and industrial electricity customers, helping to reduce electricity costs and managing challenges associated with a decentralised grid.
Australian Renewable Energy Agency chief executive Darren Miller said the trial would provide the road map for integrating into the grid.

"While these devices and technologies can make our grid more reliable, affordable and lower emission, rapid uptake is already impacting how the grid is managed and highlighting the limitations of our existing market frameworks," Mr Miller said.

He said the trial would help develop trading mechanisms to maximise the economic benefits to customers and the system and minimise the costs of supply to all energy customers.


ARENA will provide $12.9 million in funding to the Australian Energy Market Operator, which will partner with network AusNet Services and retailer Mondo Power to co-ordinate the development of a replicable model for trading of electricity and grid services that can be expanded across the national electricity market (NEM).

The funding will support the development of market software and systems to underpin the integration of distributed energy resources (DER) in the grid.
DER, commonly known as "behind the meter" generation, continue to change the way Australia is generating and managing its energy supplies. Rather than electricity being generated by big, centralised power stations, it is starting to come from many places including millions of homes and businesses.

AEMO emerging markets and services general manager Violette Mouchaileh said the organisation was working with industry to design and test a world-first, two-way energy system and sophisticated market for consumers to participate in the NEM.

"This trial forms part of a program to enable a smooth transition from a one-way energy supply chain to a world-leading system that maximises the value of distributed energy resources for all consumers through effectively integrating them into Australia's power systems and electricity markets."
 


Fantastic insight Trawler!!! Any chance of a heads up on any companies that have might have a bit of leverage on this type of Tech??
Love to know.... how long has this been coming???
I wouldn't want to be someone to get into this a year or few late or decade or more... They would have lost many mutiples.
Any pointers from, Maybe the IPA( institute of payed advicosy... Gabba the Hut Rhinhart's pet project) & Liberal party Policy Directors.
Luckly Austraila's got the rough end of the Big Hornsdale 'pineapple'.... so much roughage for the dung beetle Morrison to ball-up after it's been through the elephant; the man is a magnitude above Bull.

No mention in this thread of the IEA's October announcement of the cheapest Energy ever in Human history... I find that curious, considering the implications...

excuse my edits to your post...
 
Sounds like you have all the info you need @orr, still full of bile I see, hope it doesn't turn into something nasty for you.
By the way, I didn't notice anything edited, or that made much sense, so no offence taken. ?
 
Stumbled across this research while I was looking at other renewable energy projects. Early days of course but it's very interesting.

Pumped Storage Hydropower a “game-changer”: ANU research

A series of Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) projects planned across 5 states could triple Australia’s electricity storage capacity, according to a new study by a researcher at The Australian National University (ANU). Professor Jamie Pittock says if the projects go ahead, they will accelerate...
www.anu.edu.au
 
There is a lot of proposed pumped storage sites earmarked, from memory more than 2,000 and we have discussed it in this thread a lot.
Pumped storage is the best storage medium for renewables, the issue is going to be environmental impact IMO.
 
sptrawler said:
There is a lot of proposed pumped storage sites earmarked, from memory more than 2,000 and we have discussed it in this thread a lot.
Click to expand...
Entura (aka Hydro Tasmania) identified over 200,000 potential pumped hydro sites nationally in a major research project done a while ago.

Incidentally some of the identified projects are on land owned by other electricity companies. Most see that as fine, business is business and the land exists regardless of who owns it, but one wasn't too happy about it.

Where the problem lies though is with the timeframe. Anything hydro by its very nature is a long term asset and that seems to be problematic for the private sector. AGL and Origin (both ASX listed) and the likes of EA (not listed) certainly have some interest but getting the financial numbers to work from their perspective is problematic whereas it's considerably easier for Snowy Hydro or Hydro Tas (owned by the Australian and Tasmanian governments respectively). Likewise CleanCo is owned by the Queensland government.

The issue isn't so much about private ownership versus government ownership per se, it's more about accounting and timeframes.

Easiest way to explain that is to say that the private sector announces quarterly profit results, pays dividends every six months and sees the annual result as the be all and end all. In contrast government-owned corporations tend to see quarterly or half yearly as too short to even pay attention to and that the annual result is really just a form of guidance for the decade's performance which is the one that counts.

There's a broad thinking for that reason that the private companies will end up as owners of the wind and solar farms and will also own the short term storage (batteries) but that government will own a large chunk of the hydro. Not totally, AGL and Origin are currently the fourth and fifth largest hydro operators in Australia respectively and Origin is indeed looking at capacity expansion, but broadly that pattern does seem likely.

At present the largest hydro operators in terms of installed capacity (pumped or non-pumped) are, in order: Snowy Hydro, Hydro Tasmania, CleanCo, AGL, Origin, various others with individually minor amounts.

Largest in terms of annual energy production from hydro sources in order: Hydro Tas, Snowy Hydro, AGL, CleanCo, all others are minor.

Largest in terms of pumped storage capacity at present: Snowy Hydro, CleanCo, Origin. There are no others with existing pumped storage.
 
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A current article, on the state of play with small modular reactors (SMR's).

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com
From the article:
Today, the nuclear industry once again is thinking small, spurred on by politicians including U.S. President-elect Joe Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson. They’re looking to solve the next climate change challenge: how to feed pollution-free heat to industries that make steel, cement, glass and chemicals. Half of the world’s energy goes into making heat, and that produces two-fifths of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. Those industries sometimes need temperatures above 1,000 degrees Celsius (1,800 Fahrenheit) and more often than not burn fossil fuels to get there.

Small modular reactors are drawing the attention of policy makers across the U.S. and Europe because of their versatility. They can deliver a steady flow of energy both in the form of heat and electricity. The power helps balance intermittent supplies coming from wind and solar farms. The heat can help decarbonize some of the world’s dirtiest industries. Johnson set aside 500 million pounds for SMR design in a green economy program last month, and Biden says they’re one of the keys to long-term energy policy in the U.S.


Some of the biggest investors and industrial companies have gotten behind the technology, with reactor designs emerging from Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc, Fluor Corp.-backed NuScale Power LLC, Terrestrial Energy USA Inc. and TerraPower, which has drawn investment from Bill Gates. In all, there are currently 67 unique SMR technologies in various stages of development worldwide, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. That’s about a third more than just two years ago.

“This is the decade of SMR demonstrations, which could potentially determine front runners for the expected economy of series production,” said Henri Paillere, the head planning and economic studies at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. “There is high level of innovation.”

For now, only a single SMR unit is in commercial operation, installed on a barge off Russia’s Arctic coast. NuScale expects approval for one of its designs as early as next month. While the technology is advancing quickly, the economics of SMRs remain unproven. The challenge is earning enough money from a small plant to pay for the regulatory burden that comes with any nuclear venture.


Engineers also say SMRs also can efficiently produce hydrogen, another fuel emerging as a preferred way to supply heat for industry. Around-the-clock availability of nuclear plants pairs well with processes that split the gas from water molecules, Urenco Chief Executive Officer Boris Schucht said in September.

“There are definitely niches that SMRs can fill, but there is uncertainty over whether the market will ever be large enough,” said M.V. Ramana, a nuclear physicist who wrote about the history of SMRs at Princeton University. “There are going to be a few reactors that are built. The question is whether there will be the next customer after they see the cost and time it has taken to get the first unit online.”
 

I think that is the bottom line. From everything I have seen the economics of SMR's don't stack up against the current suite of renewable technologies.
But we'll see won't we ?
 
basilio said:
I think that is the bottom line. From everything I have seen the economics of SMR's don't stack up against the current suite of renewable technologies.
But we'll see won't we ?
Click to expand...
Yes it is certainly at an interesting stage, the renewables/storage and at call generation, is all getting to the point where big decisions will have to be made.
I think this is the key:
For now, only a single SMR unit is in commercial operation, installed on a barge off Russia’s Arctic coast. NuScale expects approval for one of its designs as early as next month. While the technology is advancing quickly, the economics of SMRs remain unproven. The challenge is earning enough money from a small plant to pay for the regulatory burden that comes with any nuclear venture.

It wont be until they are operational and have a proven track record, that the regulatory cost will be reduced, it's a bit of a hen and egg situation.
Just my opinion.
 
Here goes:


https://www.hydro.com.au/news/media...ethana-selected-as-first-pumped-hydro-project

Ultimately the proposed new Vic - Tas transmission and generation development in Tasmania will meet 14.5% of Victoria's peak demand, additional to the 4.5% presently supplied from Tas via Basslink so bringing the total to 19% via three cables.

Note that Trevallyn power station has nothing to do with the Cethana or any pumped storage scheme - it's just a convenient place for an announcement given that it's in suburban Launceston indeed it's only 3km from the CBD so an easy place to get the PM etc to turn up.
 
Smurf1976 said:
an easy place to get the PM etc to turn up.
Click to expand...

Nailed him there Smurf; For Schmuk It's all about the announcement...
Giles Parkinson over at Reneweconomy mentioned something about $90 odd million toward this project coming from somewhere. My guess is reallocated, reannounced, recycled pish that we've come to expect from those with confected rather than real ambition for what's needed.
What I've looked more seriously for is the(accelerated) time of completion, or for anything resembling forward thinking. And not seeing much.
And for a Federal government who's matra is the advancement of private enterprize!!! give them policy certanty, Or what you'll get is investment derth.
FFS ... 75yrs ago we could be part of winning a world war against facism in not much more than 4yrs ... And today we can't run a few yards of TPS from one side of a creek to other in something under a decade.

And just for giggles watching, in particular, the New England Nationals squirm in the new renewable energy cost realities, helps me sleep at night ... Squirms that more resemble the death convulsions of shot cats...

How much did we pay for a commission into Wind Turbines??? and the result?
 
orr said:
Nailed him there Smurf; For Schmuk It's all about the announcement...
Click to expand...
Yes lets forget about the new 1.5GW interconnector cable, that will supply an extra 14.5% capacity to Victoria, let's focus on the name calling and derogatory name calling.
Nothing much changes, rusted on, is rusted on.
 
Well the writing is on the wall for the last privately owned coal fired station in W.A, it must be getting hard to turn a buck with the cycling they must be doing, times are changing bloody fast.

Australian coal-fired power plant bought for $1.2b now 'effectively has no value'

The owners of the Bluewaters coal-fired plant in Western Australia have written down the value of the asset to zero, despite it being barely ten years old.
www.abc.net.au
From the article:
The owners of Australia's newest coal-fired power station have written down the value of the asset to zero, wiping out a $1.2 billion investment in the face of an onslaught of renewable energy.

In what a financial market analyst said was a "classic example" of changes predicted in the energy industry, Japanese conglomerate Sumitomo has written off its $250 million equity stake in the Bluewaters power plant in Western Australia's south-west.

The decision was booked in Sumitomo's September accounts, in which the company acknowledged the facility was worthless despite being barely 10 years old.


It comes just nine years after Sumitomo, in a joint venture with fellow Japanese firm Kansai, bought Bluewaters for a reported $1.2 billion from the wreckage of fallen coal tycoon Ric Stowe's failed business empire.

Kansai is believed to have made similar accounting changes, meaning both companies have reduced their equity stakes to zero.


Earlier this year, a syndicate of Australian and overseas banks including Westpac and ANZ apparently refused to refinance $370 million in debt owed by Bluewaters amid concerns about the facility's coal supply security and investing in the fossil fuel.

Instead, the banks sold their debt stakes at a discount to distressed debt specialists — so-called vulture funds — including Oaktree Capital and Elliot Management.

At the same time, Bluewaters and other coal-fired power stations in WA have been dealing with tougher trading conditions as renewable energy led by solar increasingly hollows out the market.
"In Western Australia, the penetration of rooftop solar is huge, amongst the highest in the world," Mr Nicholas said.
 

Seems to me that these things have been around for ages, in nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers.

What's the difference in design between military and commercial SMR's ?
 
sptrawler said:
Well the writing is on the wall for the last privately owned coal fired station in W.A, it must be getting hard to turn a buck with the cycling they must be doing, times are changing bloody fast.
Click to expand...
At least they didn't spend a cent more building it than they absolutely had to.

Who needs cladding on the walls?

Meanwhile in WA they're conducting a "trial" : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-16/wa-government-power-market-trial-to-protect-grid/12986348

I assume that local politics probably requires the "trial" bit but in practice it's likely to stay in my view - it's essentially the same thing known as Tariff 93 in Tasmania and by the informal name of "solar sponge" and various other marketing terms in SA.

The basic idea is to give consumers a strong push via economic means to shift consumption to the middle of the day when the sun's shining. Can't move all loads obviously but for pool pumps, dishwashers, washing and drying clothes, any sort of battery charging etc it's generally doable.

Nobody's going to say it'll be compulsory but that's certainly the underlying thought in other states, ultimately consumers will be moved off flat rate tariffs. Some states may do that directly by force whilst others, especially Tas, will likely do it via the well worn path of progressively ramped up saturation advertising.
 
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Really interesting article on the power generation front, obviously a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes, quietly getting on with business I would say.

Export superpower: AEMO to model even faster paths to net zero emissions

AEMO to model faster paths to net zero emissions, with new “Export Superpower” scenario to assume Australia to get there by 2040, and more rapid emission cuts in electricity grid.
reneweconomy.com.au
From the article:

The Australian Energy Market Operator is to model even faster paths to net zero emissions, with a new “Export Superpower” scenario to assume Australia will reach net zero emissions in the early 2040s, and the electricity grid will lead the way and achieve even more rapid emissions cuts.

AEMO – whose job is primarily to keep the lights on in Australia’s main grids – broke new ground earlier this year with the release of the second version of its Integrated System Plan, a 20-year blueprint that included a “step change” scenario that assumed 94 per cent renewables share by 2040 as technology costs fell and the world woke from its climate slumber to take decisive action.

A new 180 page document – its 2021 Draft Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios report – goes even further, and suggests new scenarios that include Australia reaching net zero emissions as early as 2040, with the electricity sector – where emission cuts are seen as more readily achievable – delivering even more rapid reductions. The plunging cost of green hydrogen will play an important role.

Already, it has accepted the inevitability of a 50 per cent renewables share by 2050, despite claiming that such targets would cause the sky to fall in when it was proposed by Labor in last year’s election. And, as Ketan Joshi wrote this week, Angus Taylor’s official emissions forecasts appear to assume a faster cut in emissions than AEMO’s step change plan and an early exit for coal.


    1. “The GenCost report … estimates for the current capital cost of a PEM electrolyser, at $3,510/kW, with equipment and construction costs accounting for 70% and 30% of total capex respectively,” it says. By 2030 the cost of PEM electrolysers is projected to be less than $1000/kW in all scenarios.”
  • The Export Superpower scenario assumes that much of the wind and solar capacity needed for clean hydrogen will be connected to the grid. This also means added flexibility for the market operator, and less reason to have some fossil fuel generators still in the tool kit by 2050.
“The actual electrolyser itself can be ramped up and down rapidly, potentially even providing fast frequency response similar to electrochemical batteries,” it notes.
AEMO proposes to model PEM electrolysers as fully flexible, although there is also an associated baseload component. And like solar PV and batteries, AEMO notes that hydrogen electrolysers are highly modular and can be scaled up linearly.

It also expects other technologies will emerge that will provide the “synchronous” qualities of fossil fuel generators and displace them as “last gasp” back ups in a renewable grid. But for the moment, it can’t be sure, so it is assuming at least some thermal generation on the grid.

“Some operation of thermal plant may be cost-effective to maintain synchronous and peaking support capabilities, and it would then become more cost-effective to reduce emissions in other sectors of the economy than to decarbonise the final incremental emissions-intensive activities in the electricity grid,” it says.
“There are zero-emissions synchronous technologies available that would potentially be able to deliver these services while maintaining a carbon-neutral NEM; however, given the lack of surety and detail on these options in the NEM setting, AEMO currently considers that it is appropriate to allow some fossil-fuelled generation to remain in the electricity system provided the cumulative carbon budget is not exceeded.”
 
PEM and hydrogen pathways.
 
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