The future of energy generation and storage

[Value Collector]

Here is a Graph showing my solar production and the usage.

The blue is production and orange is usage.

I have pointed out three periods of high usage,

1, is car charging at 6.30

2, is the hot water system coming on for a bit

3, is my aircon coming on and then spiking down even more as the hotwater comes on again as my Mrs has a shower while the aircon is running.

Light orange shows usage being supplied by solar, dark orange shows usage being imported.

you can see while the aircon and hot water were both running we imported for a while, I would love to know which circuit the import is coming from.

 

[qldfrog]

Apparently the new meter they installed does allow solar to flow to the t33 circuit, where as the older system where there was two meters doesn't.

As I said I can see where my solar goes via my App, and at exactly the time my hotwater system comes on, the app shows solar usage rise by 3.6KWH which is exactly what the Hotwater system uses.

Good to know, thanks
It is hard to keep up to scratch and make good decisions in such a shifting environment

 

[Value Collector]

View attachment 98972 Here is a Graph showing my solar production and the usage.

The blue is production and orange is usage.

I have pointed out three periods of high usage,

1, is car charging at 6.30

2, is the hot water system coming on for a bit

3, is my aircon coming on and then spiking down even more as the hotwater comes on again as my Mrs has a shower while the aircon is running.

Light orange shows usage being supplied by solar, dark orange shows usage being imported.

you can see while the aircon and hot water were both running we imported for a while, I would love to know which circuit the import is coming from.

just to explain the chart further,

dark blue is production exports while light blue is production used.

dark orange is usage that was imported, light orange is usage supplied from panels.

 

[sptrawler]

At last we are starting to get a critical planning pathway sorted, for the orderly transition to renewables, the green shoots are appearing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...040-to-replace-coal/11790276?section=business
From the article:
In a "roadmap" for the next 20 years, AEMO said renewable energy with dispatchable power would be the lowest cost for consumers.

Rooftop solar is set to play a role, with nearly a quarter of all energy consumption to come from residential and business solar panels by 2040.
To offset the decline of coal there would need to be a more-than-tripling of renewable energy plants that are already established or will be installed in the next two years, the forecast said.
he draft report highlights several "priority" projects for investment including:

• A new undersea power link between Victoria and Tasmania
• A new transmission line from Robertstown in South Australia to Wagga Wagga in NSW
• A new connection from Western Victoria where wind plants are being built, to southern NSW and the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro
• Upgrades of the existing interconnection between Queensland to NSW and Victoria to NSW
• Improvements to the transmission system in Victoria to allow renewable energy to get to homes.

The report said 15 gigawatts (GW) or 63 per cent of Australia's coal-fired generation is likely to retire by 2040.

This will have to be replaced by at least 30 GW of new grid-scale renewables above what is already committed.

"More renewables are required to replace conventional generators because of their naturally lower capacity factor,'' said the report.

Renewable energy development zones are earmarked across the five states.

On a different note, it doesn't sound good for Victoria, as smurph has been saying.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...arns-about-power-outages-this-summer/11762774

From the article:
Up to 1.3 million Victorian households without power on extreme weather days if supply was not improved and major generators were not repaired

And to support the transition away from a coal-based market, there needs to be up to 21 GW of dispatchable resources through pumped hydro or battery storage.

Efficient gas plants could be effective, especially if gas prices came down

 

[Value Collector]

At last we are starting to get a critical planning pathway sorted, for the orderly transition to renewables, the green shoots are appearing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...040-to-replace-coal/11790276?section=business
From the article:
In a "roadmap" for the next 20 years, AEMO said renewable energy with dispatchable power would be the lowest cost for consumers.

Rooftop solar is set to play a role, with nearly a quarter of all energy consumption to come from residential and business solar panels by 2040.
To offset the decline of coal there would need to be a more-than-tripling of renewable energy plants that are already established or will be installed in the next two years, the forecast said.
he draft report highlights several "priority" projects for investment including:

• A new undersea power link between Victoria and Tasmania
• A new transmission line from Robertstown in South Australia to Wagga Wagga in NSW
• A new connection from Western Victoria where wind plants are being built, to southern NSW and the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro
• Upgrades of the existing interconnection between Queensland to NSW and Victoria to NSW
• Improvements to the transmission system in Victoria to allow renewable energy to get to homes.

The report said 15 gigawatts (GW) or 63 per cent of Australia's coal-fired generation is likely to retire by 2040.

This will have to be replaced by at least 30 GW of new grid-scale renewables above what is already committed.

"More renewables are required to replace conventional generators because of their naturally lower capacity factor,'' said the report.

Renewable energy development zones are earmarked across the five states.

On a different note, it doesn't sound good for Victoria, as smurph has been saying.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...arns-about-power-outages-this-summer/11762774

From the article:
Up to 1.3 million Victorian households without power on extreme weather days if supply was not improved and major generators were not repaired

And to support the transition away from a coal-based market, there needs to be up to 21 GW of dispatchable resources through pumped hydro or battery storage.

Efficient gas plants could be effective, especially if gas prices came down

We are definitely on the cusp of an unstoppable wave, looking forward how are we going to monetize This situation.

IMO opinion, possible good deployments of capital are.

1, Your own personal solar system.

2, lending out funds via companies such as Rate setter to others Needing funding for their green energy equipment.

3, Investment banks focused on funding these big projects Eg Mqg.

4, Companies committed to investing in large renewable projects, that also have exposure to transition fuels, eg Apa.

5, Maybe companies like Tesla, Who have exposure to Solar panels, Batteries, and Cars that can make the most of these new fuel sources.

any other thoughts?

 

[qldfrog]

We are definitely on the cusp of an unstoppable wave, looking forward how are we going to monetize This situation.

IMO opinion, possible good deployments of capital are.

1, Your own personal solar system.

2, lending out funds via companies such as Rate setter to others Needing funding for their green energy equipment.

3, Investment banks focused on funding these big projects Eg Mqg.

4, Companies committed to investing in large renewable projects, that also have exposure to transition fuels, eg Apa.

5, Maybe companies like Tesla, Who have exposure to Solar panels, Batteries, and Cars that can make the most of these new fuel sources.

any other thoughts?

Hi VC, got 1 and 2, was burnt with Macquarie wind a couple of years ago, should have bought the bank itself to leverage its scrxxxing of the investors...
After it is hard to be sure of the winners
To be realistic, we still need fosil fuel so gas for power, and when the news are bad, get some big exxon shell player, we will still burn oil for a while, and even more than now in adia

 

[sptrawler]

The trick is, there is only money, in something that makes money (well mostly), so the problem lies in the fact that we need twice as much capacity than required, therefore a lot wont be bought.
Also we need three times as much storage, as generation, so how do you make money on building that?

I've been asking this question for a long time and the answer seems to be "just do it", which in reality doesn't cut it, but is the nonsensicle demand of the plebs.

That is where we are fast approaching, the point where someone has to fund it for very little return.
That is why MQG is spending a lot of money, building massive solar hydrogen plants, for export potential.
Meanwhile the plebs in the Cities are marching around with banners with questions but no answers.
That is untill you question them, then they have all the answers, but actually don't know the question.
It's a funny World ATM, those who want the problem solved, aren't asking the question of those who can solve it, they are asking politicians who have no technical ability at all.
Seems to me that the $50B spent on the NBN, would have been better spent on this problem IMO.
If the telco's wanted a better backbone infrastructure, they should have paid for it, not us.
I would rather have spent the money, on changing electrical supply system to renewables, than having faster internet that I don't need but costs me $hit loads more.
But hey everyone was screaming the NBN had to be done, so in reality it is just a screaming bunch, moving on to another issue, as long as they are loud and proud who gives a crap what the issue is as long as they get their way.
Just my opinion.

 

[qldfrog]

The trick is, there is only money, in something that makes money (well mostly), so the problem lies in the fact that we need twice as much capacity than required, therefore a lot wont be bought.
Also we need three times as much storage, as generation, so how do you make money on building that?

I've been asking this question for a long time and the answer seems to be "just do it", which in reality doesn't cut it, but is the nonsensicle demand of the plebs.

That is where we are fast approaching, the point where someone has to fund it for very little return.
That is why MQG is spending a lot of money, building massive solar hydrogen plants, for export potential.
Meanwhile the plebs in the Cities are marching around with banners with questions but no answers.
That is untill you question them, then they have all the answers, but actually don't know the question.
It's a funny World ATM, those who want the problem solved, aren't asking the question of those who can solve it, they are asking politicians who have no technical ability at all.
Seems to me that the $50B spent on the NBN, would have been better spent on this problem IMO.
If the telco's wanted a better backbone infrastructure, they should have paid for it, not us.
I would rather have spent the money, on changing electrical supply system to renewables, than having faster internet that I don't need but costs me $hit loads more.
But hey everyone was screaming the NBN had to be done, so in reality it is just a screaming bunch, moving on to another issue, as long as they are loud and proud who gives a crap what the issue is as long as they get their way.
Just my opinion.

I think it is the growth of the empowered ignorant, out of university with a degree in gender studies or sociology and parrotting well rehearsed propaganda, with shared pre made answers:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-11/how-to-win-a-climate-change-debate/11787486
I am a real partisan of solar and wind but facts mean it can not be enough wo storage, and the same crowd complains about hydro 2, wants to install batteries..really? or demand management.LOL
All nice side help but we need a baseload somewhere, nuclear or fossil fuel
Hydro would be good but it is negligible here..sad geographic reality

 

[Smurf1976]

It's a funny World ATM, those who want the problem solved, aren't asking the question of those who can solve it, they are asking politicians who have no technical ability at all.

It's all very solvable, it just requires a focus on actually solving it rather than focusing on ideology of any sort since that's what's standing in the way.

Looking at the short term, the situation in Victoria is basically a game of russian roulette. The gun is loaded in so far as installed generating capacity is inadequate and some of what does exist is in pretty poor shape thus liable to experience rather a lot of problems. That said, it's anyone's guess as to when the ducks line up and that actually becomes a crisis. Could be next week, could be next year, might be years away.

The key drivers are basically time,weather and plant performance:

*Temperature has a strong influence on load. In Victoria's case, the hotter it gets the higher the load.

*Humidity also affects load. If it's hot then for the same temperature a higher humidity will lead to higher load compared to having lower humidity with otherwise identical conditions.

*Day of the week has a significant influence on load although less so than temperature. Monday - Friday is highest, Saturday is a bit lower but not greatly so, Sunday and any Public Holiday is lower again.

*An absence of cloud increases solar generation but also increases load when air temperature is high. It makes the situation far better during the day but worse around sunset when the effects of the sun shining on building walls etc are still present but solar power has stopped generating.

*Wind speed affects wind power generation most obviously but also has effects on transmission line capacity and to some extent load due to building heat gain / loss effects.

*High temperature reduces the capacity of quite a lot of generating plant. In the Victorian context it hits some of the open cycle gas turbines petty hard and has lesser effects on coal and gas-fired steam plant. It also cuts the output from solar compared to lower air temperature but with equal sunlight. No real effect on hydro or wind but that does suffer some indirect impacts due to higher temperatures reducing the capacity of transmission lines. So overall higher temperatures do reduce generating capacity.

Now if you put all that together you get the overall situation at any given time. Suffice to say there's a lot of variables there and you won't find anyone willing to place a bet on when the ducks actually do line up and put the lights out.

Worst case would be a hot, humid and calm working weekday where there's some amount of plant unavailable due to whatever technical problems. When that happens is anyone's guess but the maths and historical data says it will occur with the only question being the timing.

With regard to the various interstate transmission projects, main thing I'll note is that Marinus Link (Vic - Tas) is a 1500 MW project but physically built as 2 x 750 MW. So it could be half built if desired, it's not an all or nothing thing.

 

[qldfrog]

It's all very solvable, it just requires a focus on actually solving it rather than focusing on ideology of any sort since that's what's standing in the way.

Looking at the short term, the situation in Victoria is basically a game of russian roulette. The gun is loaded in so far as installed generating capacity is inadequate and some of what does exist is in pretty poor shape thus liable to experience rather a lot of problems. That said, it's anyone's guess as to when the ducks line up and that actually becomes a crisis. Could be next week, could be next year, might be years away.

The key drivers are basically time,weather and plant performance:

*Temperature has a strong influence on load. In Victoria's case, the hotter it gets the higher the load.

*Humidity also affects load. If it's hot then for the same temperature a higher humidity will lead to higher load compared to having lower humidity with otherwise identical conditions.

*Day of the week has a significant influence on load although less so than temperature. Monday - Friday is highest, Saturday is a bit lower but not greatly so, Sunday and any Public Holiday is lower again.

*An absence of cloud increases solar generation but also increases load when air temperature is high. It makes the situation far better during the day but worse around sunset when the effects of the sun shining on building walls etc are still present but solar power has stopped generating.

*Wind speed affects wind power generation most obviously but also has effects on transmission line capacity and to some extent load due to building heat gain / loss effects.

*High temperature reduces the capacity of quite a lot of generating plant. In the Victorian context it hits some of the open cycle gas turbines petty hard and has lesser effects on coal and gas-fired steam plant. It also cuts the output from solar compared to lower air temperature but with equal sunlight. No real effect on hydro or wind but that does suffer some indirect impacts due to higher temperatures reducing the capacity of transmission lines. So overall higher temperatures do reduce generating capacity.

Now if you put all that together you get the overall situation at any given time. Suffice to say there's a lot of variables there and you won't find anyone willing to place a bet on when the ducks actually do line up and put the lights out.

Worst case would be a hot, humid and calm working weekday where there's some amount of plant unavailable due to whatever technical problems. When that happens is anyone's guess but the maths and historical data says it will occur with the only question being the timing.

With regard to the various interstate transmission projects, main thing I'll note is that Marinus Link (Vic - Tas) is a 1500 MW project but physically built as 2 x 750 MW. So it could be half built if desired, it's not an all or nothing thing.

@Smurf1976 question on the above , asking the pro
In term of percentage, what is the loss of efficiency for these power station with higher temperature
Outside air temp varies by around 50C or so in australia when you are unlucky, and i i alwa thought, has this got a material effect on the efficiency? Thermodynamic says it should but by how much, or is it more the issue of lubricant becoming too liquid, or in europe having to heat piping to allow fuel fluidity..
A little bit off subject but when the grid is on breaking point a few % can make all the difference

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking at temperature effects, for steam plant it comes down to cooling.

If it's air cooled, so heat dumped into the air as hot air, for example Kogan Creek (CS Energy, Qld, coal) then air temperature is the key driver of that. Nominal capacity is 750MW and at 15 degrees that's achievable but at 37 degrees output is reduced to 713MW so a 4.9% reduction.

For evaporatively cooled plant, that is with cooling towers with condensed "steam" coming out the top, then it comes down to temperature as well as humidity. Using data for Loy Yang A (AGL, Vic, coal) nominal capacity is 2210 MW and under most circumstances that can be achieved. At 41 degrees however it's de-rated to 2144 MW so a reduction of 3%.

For plant cooled into a large body of water, either a lake or the ocean, it simply comes down to the temperature of that water not the air. Air might warm the water up eventually if it stays hot for long enough (has happened overseas) but it's the water temperature as such which matters. There are some where that has a minor impact, for example Newport D (6km from the Melbourne CBD, gas-fired boiler and owned by Energy Australia) but it's only minor and if we look at Vales Point B (Sunset Power International, NSW, coal) well it's rated at 1320 MW at 42 degrees and won't go any higher even if it's snowing so no real issue there.

For gas turbine plant it's far more severe and relates to the lower air density as temperature goes up. Eg if we look at Mintaro (open cycle gas turbine, SA, owner = Synergen Power) well it's nominally 90 MW (3 x 30 MW) but comes down to 68 MW at 43 degrees and will go lower if it gets hotter than that. So that's a 25% loss of capacity on a hot but not extreme day. It varies a bit with design but a lot of the open cycle plant is of that order in terms of temperature effects - hot weather isn't at all kind to them and it's not unknown to see a 30% capacity loss if it's hot enough.

There's a workaround if the air's dry via water injection (evaporative cooling) but you need a pretty decent amount of nice high quality drinking water that you're prepared to have blowing away into the air in order for that to work. That approach is used but not universally, it's easier done somewhere like Tasmania than it is in SA or on a remote mine site in WA, and its effectiveness is subject to humidity.

For combined cycle plant it's in the middle. Losses on the gas turbine but little or no loss on the steam turbine side depending on the means of cooling.

For internal combustion (diesel or gas engines), wind and hydro there's generally no impact unless via indirect means . For example cold weather causes a gas shortage because everyone's using it for heating and that stops the power station from running. Or the transmission lines can't take the full output if it's hot so that limits operation even though there's no problem with the power source as such.

Solar loses output as temperature goes up regardless of what that temperature actually is (in terms of practical real world scenarios). For solar to work you need light, not heat, and it's roughly a 0.5% output loss per degree rise in temperature. That's cell (panel) temperature not air temperature so wind plays a role there as well as the air temperature itself. So it's more complex than just the temperature but if all other things were equal then going from 25 to 45 degrees air temperature should knock 10% or so off the panel output.

Another factor with solar is the inverter. For small scale (homes, small business) situations it's no secret that rather too many inverters are installed in locations exposed to direct sunlight. They do have temperature limits and will throttle production, or outright shut down, if those are exceeded but I'm not aware of any research into how significant an issue it actually is in practice. It wouldn't be zero though, there are certainly consumer reports of it happening, but the exact amount I've no idea and to my knowledge nobody's really tried to work it out. For large scale installations, solar farms, that shouldn't be a problem though assuming they've worked it out and designed appropriate cooling for the equipment.

Another one is batteries and again this is about small scale (home) ones not large installations such as the Neoen one (the SA "big battery") or AGL's planned 4 large batteries in NSW.

Information is very limited and I'm hoping to obtain some more data, albeit from a very small sample size, of how residential batteries perform during the coming hot weather in SA. Anecdotally though, it seems that at least some of the popular ones are not capable of sustaining high rates of charge or discharge at high ambient temperatures.

The specifications for one major manufacturer involve a ramping down of capacity from 45 degrees, reaching zero at 55 degrees. That might not sound too bad until you realise that's the battery temperature, not the air temperature, and that the battery will itself generate some internal heat when charging or discharging. Plus there are radiant heating effects to consider if it's installed somewhere exposed to direct sunlight. At what air temperature capacity drops is a good question, that's what I'm aiming to get some data on.

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks @Smurf1976 , i had no clue it was that high, especially the high effect on gas turbines.
I knew about solar cell reduced output but these are considerable effect for example with the coming heatwave in southern Australia.Monday may be a day where you need to have your batteries charged and generator ready

 

[Smurf1976]

Monday may be a day where you need to have your batteries charged and generator ready

At this stage Wednesday looks very tight in Victoria.

Unlikely to affect households or non-industrial businesses but it's tight enough that the spot price will probably go crazy, we could well see a 10000% jump and no that's not a typo I mean literally a 100 fold increase in the spot price, and there's some chance of industrial load being cut but that's a maybe not a given.

At present AEMO is forecasting:

Supply available within Victoria = 8064 MW
Maximum load within Victoria = 9220 MW

So that needs 1156 MW from interstate to avoid any load shedding.

Tas can do 478 MW that's a "hard" number due to the limits of transmission.

SA up to 720 MW (transmission limit) but for technical reasons unlikely to get there and will top out in the 600's in practice.

NSW the lines were built to connect Snowy generation, and there's some of that counted in the Victorian figures anyway, and anything beyond that is a "do it if we can but no promises...." sort of bonus. 200 MW is an indicative figure there on top of what's already included the Vic generation figures.

So all up there's stuff all room to move. End result = it's not a big enough problem to affect households or most businesses (unless something goes wrong which is a moderate possibility) but there's a risk to industrial load and so far as price is concerned, well since every supplier is critical that means they all have the market cornered. That being so, may as well whack a couple of zero's on the price then and that's what they'll probably do and I mean that literally. A 100 fold price spike is a plausible occurrence although we'll have to wait and see what actually happens but certainly that wouldn't be unprecedented in similar circumstances.

Financial impact on listed companies operating in the industry really depends on their individual circumstances. Anyone who's buying at spot in order sell to others at a fixed price is something I wouldn't want to invest in - they're a blow up waiting to happen basically. The big names don't do that but it's not unknown as a concept.

Households and most businesses won't directly be paying that price but ultimately a wholesale price spike will come through to retail pricing to the extent that it moves the average price. One way or another it's being paid for.

 

[qldfrog]

Temperature forecast could be extreme so the scary bit.Pretty tight indeed.As manufacturing and heavy industry disappear as fast as our generation ability, it will get harder and harder to find big users we can remove from the grid easily.

 

[Humid]

https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/tesla-giant-new-home-solar-system/
The comments at the end are a good read

 

[sptrawler]

https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/tesla-giant-new-home-solar-system/
The comments at the end are a good read

Good article humid, I think leasing batteries will be the way forward, people buying them then having to replace them after x years will wear thin with people.
It will be ok when they are working and have to fork out the cash, but when things tighten up or they retire, the money wont be there to replace the batteries.
When it can be accurately forecast, how much battery capacity a household requires to mitigate its usage, then an accurate savings can be factored into whether the lease is viable or not.
Also as with car tyres at the moment, getting rid of the expired battery costs money, so if the battery is leased disposal is the suppliers problem.

 

[Value Collector]

Good article humid, I think leasing batteries will be the way forward, people buying them then having to replace them after x years will wear thin with people.
It will be ok when they are working and have to fork out the cash, but when things tighten up or they retire, the money wont be there to replace the batteries.
When it can be accurately forecast, how much battery capacity a household requires to mitigate its usage, then an accurate savings can be factored into whether the lease is viable or not.
Also as with car tyres at the moment, getting rid of the expired battery costs money, so if the battery is leased disposal is the suppliers problem.

Of course turning a large capital cost into a payment plan makes it seem easier for the average Joe, however inducing a financing company into the deal will make it more expensive, because there will be interest payments, (saying that, head over to Rate setter and we will happily fund your solar project at 6.3%+fees)

The batteries will have a scrap value, I you will be able to "trade in" your old battery for a new one, and receive a credit for the scrap metal value, it won't be a cost.

 

[sptrawler]

The batteries will have a scrap value, I you will be able to "trade in" your old battery for a new one, and receive a credit for the scrap metal value, it won't be a cost.

That used to be the case for second hand worn out tyres, until the supply exceeded demand, now there is a cost to get rid of second hand tyres.
Not that it should be a problem with batteries, it will probably be factored into the purchase cost and that is continuing to fall.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking at the near term:

Victoria looks rather precarious for Wednesday. No real threat to households but a price spike is very likely and it's plausible but not certain as to whether or not any industrial load is cut at this stage. Depends how accurate the forecasts are both for load and intermittent (wind and solar) generation and whether or not anything fails.

AGL are promising that they're on track with their previous promise to have Loy Yang A unit 2 back up and running on Thursday after a 7 month outage following a major incident. After that the weather's likely to improve plus it's Christmas so no short term concerns. Wednesday's when any trouble is likely to arise.

Origin Energy are aiming to get Mortlake unit 2 back into operation by the end of 2019 following an incident very similar to the one at Loy Yang. They won't be ready this week though - December 30 was their last public statement on it.

As for batteries at home, I'll simply say that yes they work and under mild sunny conditions no problem. Reality is though that once the weather turns properly hot or cold, you're going to need an awfully big battery to keep the A/C or heating running late into the night. The grid isn't going to disappear for most users anytime soon, the exception being where the cost of mains supply is such that throwing serious $ at batteries is a viable alternative.

 

[Value Collector]

That used to be the case for second hand worn out tyres, until the supply exceeded demand, now there is a cost to get rid of second hand tyres.
Not that it should be a problem with batteries, it will probably be factored into the purchase cost and that is continuing to fall.

Used Batteries will be able to be broken down to their raw metals and the raw materials used to make new batteries, it is very different to retreading tyres.

the market for retread tyres is small compared to the market for new tyres.

How ever just like steel or aluminum, the metals from batteries will just become material for new batteries.