Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The future of energy generation and storage

So can you explain something please.

Company A owns power lines, and you could have say 5 generators sending power through those lines at once each perhaps charging a different amount for the power they generate?

So how does Company A make it's money ?
There's complexity but leaving that aside and sticking to the concepts:

*Generators (power stations, wind farms etc) offer supply at whatever price they choose to offer it at.

*AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) dispatches generation starting with the cheapest until sufficient power is generated to match demand.

*The capacity of transmission lines will limit flow under certain circumstances as will an assortment of "what if?" technical constraints which aim to maintain system stability in the event that something fails. This precludes, for example, ever having a situation where no gas or diesel fired plant is running in SA even though wind generation + supply from Vic could meet the entire load. It could, but not if there's a sudden fault hence the constraint and there are many like that.

*The practical effect of constraints is to push some generation onto higher cost (what price the owners are offering it at, not necessarily what it actually costs to operate) plant.

*The vast majority of transmission and distribution is subject to price regulation and is funded by electricity consumers. The owners of these assets have no reason to be concerned about where the supply is coming from or going to - they're being paid a regulated return regardless.

*Main exception is Basslink, that is Tas - Vic transmission, which ultimately operates as a commercial for-profit operation.

*Where it all gets complex is that there's nothing to stop any power station pricing different volumes of output at very different prices if they want to. Some do, some just set one price and that's it.

*Prices can be negative. If there's oversupply then those with high costs to shutdown and restart will send prices below zero in an effort to avoid being the ones who are shut down by AEMO. Anyone buying electricity from the spot market would literally be paid to take it under those circumstances.

*Every company has their own strategies and the most substantial operators all have "trading rooms" where it's all done from.

*It's no secret that some companies use a strategy of reverse engineering the market. They're aiming for certain volumes and just set whatever price results in that volume being dispatched by AEMO over whatever period they're focused on (right now, today, this week, etc). If volume is higher than they want then they'll just raise prices and vice versa. Hydro operators needing to manage limited volumes of water are the main ones using this approach but anyone who's running low on coal etc will tend to do it also.

*There are also some who will just run flat out and take whatever price the market gives them. The now closed Hazelwood power station were particularly well known for doing that.

*The spot market is the means of determining physical dispatch but none of this precludes other financial arrangements between generators and retailers or other customers. Such arrangements generally have the effect of stabilising price and revenue for both parties.

*There's no law against contracts between rival generators and numerous such arrangements exist. There are some companies who refuse to deal with others but there's a lot of such arrangements overall.

*Also some instances of generation fully under contract to someone else. Eg Energy Australia doesn't own Newport D power station (Vic) but they have the rights to 100% of its output, they decide the pricing strategy and they supply the gas. The actual owners are rent collectors basically. That's just one example it's not the only one. One of the more complex would be Pelican Point in SA - Engie owns and operates it, Origin has half of it under contract for supply of gas and the electricity generated but the other half is Engie's as such.

*There are also a few instances of legislated operating limits on particular power stations in addition to physical limitations. Valley Power (Vic) is a 300 MW gas-fired plant owned by Snowy Hydro and subject to an operating hours limit of 876 hours per year imposed by the Victorian EPA. Another one is the 40 MW Eraring gas turbine (NSW) owned by Origin and subject to an annual 200 hour operating limit from the NSW EPA.
 
It tells you things aren't as good as they could be, when the Energy Market operator advertises, what to do in case of extended blackouts
I don’t like things which appear to tempt fate.

It’s not a rational approach I’ll admit but I’ve been bitten by that sort of thing more than once so prefer to avoid it.

Plus if anyone actually needs advice on what to do if the power fails then I think we’ve got bigger problems.
 
Not so far as I'm aware.

The link appeared on the news feed on ASF though :xyxthumbs
Yes, but the so called energy expert journalists, have to spend some time thinking how they can put a positive spin, on an obviously dire situation.
Gas is the go-to fuel, to carry us over the fossil fuel to renewable generation chasm, well it is untill it starts to run out.lol

It is a bit like just trying to make it to the next fuel station, when you don't know how far it is, but your fuel gauge is showing empty.lol

Can't wait untill the AEMO, start running how to make your own candles, adverts.lol
 
There's no cause for panic at present but the situation in Victoria for Friday 1st of March looks a bit stretched. There's enough supply forecast to be available but there's less margin than this Smurf would like to see and it would only take a couple of technical hiccups to end up with a supply problem as happened a few weeks ago.

Looking ahead, increased transmission capacity between Vic and Tas looks almost certain to proceed now that Liberal and Labor are both backing the project and the Greens have given conditional support also.

Marinus Link is a proposed 2 x 600 MW HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) link between Tasmania and Victoria built as two independent systems. This is additional to the existing 478 MW Basslink cable which would remain in service.

Plans at this stage are for commissioning of the first 600 MW stage in 2025 and the second in 2028 although those dates are by no means firm at this point in time.

So it's not 100% certain but it does now seem extremely likely to go ahead. :2twocents
 
6y (planned)to drop a cable?

All the planning and environmental studies to meet regulatory requirements etc. Don't underestimate that one - a few years were spent on that with Basslink but it came pretty close to not being enough to keep everyone happy in all sorts of ways.

Manufacturing the cable will take considerable time - it'll be made to order it's not something that's off the shelf. And of course nobody's going to sign off on a $ billion order without first having done all the studies etc so it can't run concurrently with that.

Lots of engineering work to be done to integrate that into the system and ensure it doesn't result in anyone being literally left in the dark. That can run concurrently with the rest yes.

Testing and commissioning process bearing in mind it's not just a cable but also a rectifier and inverter at each end plus also the AC transmission infrastructure and, at the Tas end at least, elaborate control and protection schemes.

In a technical sense sure it could be done a lot faster but we live in a world full of processes....

I know what you mean though. :xyxthumbs
 
Thanks Smurf, i noticed the DC part.
when a kid at school, i was told AC was used to reduce loss on long distances,
Are we planning to boil tea in the tasman sea?
More seriously do you know why DC..and so inverters etc?
 
Thanks Smurf, i noticed the DC part.
when a kid at school, i was told AC was used to reduce loss on long distances,
Are we planning to boil tea in the tasman sea?
More seriously do you know why DC..and so inverters etc?
It's High Voltage DC so current and thus losses are kept low. Eg the existing Basslink cable operates at 400,000 Volts DC.

There's really two categories of reasons to not run it as AC:

1. Capacitance losses over that distance. Noting in that context that Basslink was the world's longest undersea power cable when built and is still the 4th longest today.

2. It enables precise control of power flow and that's important when there's no other link between the two systems which are of very different scale. Since that includes transfer of frequency control, it enables problems and disturbances to intentionally be "dumped" onto one side or the other in order to stabilise the other side.

In a not so strict engineering sense there's also the pragmatic aspect that it enables different standards to apply on both sides and that fits well with what works in practice. The key differences being:

*Tasmania runs transmission lines a hell of a lot harder than the other states will and does so via elaborate control and protection schemes combined with real time monitoring. The other states take a very much more conservative approach without a comparable level of monitoring or protection schemes.

*Tas frequency control is under normal circumstances very much tighter than that of the other states, it's very precise, versus that of the mainland system which basically drifts back and forth constantly between the upper and lower limits.

*The presence of a few very large loads, relative to overall system size, and the seasonal shifting of generation does mean the Tas system is at times unavoidably vulnerable to major disturbance in the event of a line or load trip. Whilst "normal" frequency control in Tas is far tighter than the other states, under fault conditions the upper and lower limits actually reached will depart further from "normal" than is likely to occur in the other states due to the scale, in % terms, of load or generation lost following a worst case fault.

Putting all that together DC with its ability to impose very specific control over throughput does have advantages in practice although it also has disadvantages.

The big downside of DC is its inherent complexity and also the operational restrictions - can't reverse the direction of flow quickly and there are "no go zones" which prevent the transfer of small quantities. As a whole though it still wins.

That's not to say that an AC link wouldn't or couldn't be built if it were found to be the best way. It's just that it hasn't been thus far in the Vic - Tas context but decent length ones have been built overseas. :2twocents
 
God you wouldn't want anything to go wrong with that cable.

Could be a hell of a lot of fried fish ..:eek:
When the original idea first emerged there were thoughts of installing only half the circuit as an actual cable and using the sea itself as the return path.

As a concept that's very workable but gave rise to a lot of concerns as to the consequences if it didn't go to plan and current ended up flowing where it shouldn't.

Biggest concern is that there's a gas pipeline, which is steel and therefore highly conductive, following a similar route across Bass Strait and at the Tasmanian end it comes ashore within a short walk of where Basslink also terminates. The idea that we could end up with a situation where DC current ends up flowing through the gas pipe and possibly exiting back to the sea somewhere along it brought those thoughts to an end real quick since that would produce an extremely corrosive situation with obvious consequences.

That was one of those ideas that was fine in a laboratory and could be done in theory but had too many bad consequences if it went wrong.
 
It's starting to look rather ominous for power supply in Victoria this Friday.

Might scrape through with maximum supply from other states but it's looking very marginal with nothing really to spare. :2twocents
 
It's starting to look rather ominous for power supply in Victoria this Friday.

Might scrape through with maximum supply from other states but it's looking very marginal with nothing really to spare. :2twocents
I should keep my candles and matches at the ready Smurf?
 
I should keep my candles and matches at the ready Smurf?
It's at the point where I won't predict a blackout but nobody would sensibly say there won't be one either. It looks to be a very tight situation but possibly doable if nothing goes wrong.

If there was a problem though then it would likely be late afternoon - early evening so before it's dark. That's when demand is forecast to peak - about 6pm Vic local time. :2twocents
 
It's at the point where I won't predict a blackout but nobody would sensibly say there won't be one either. It looks to be a very tight situation but possibly doable if nothing goes wrong.

If there was a problem though then it would likely be late afternoon - early evening so before it's dark. That's when demand is forecast to peak - about 6pm Vic local time. :2twocents
Thanks Smurf, I will organize dinner on the BBQ with salad just in case. :)
 
Top