The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Something I will note is that when I first posted on this forum about Australia’s looming energy problems, the Prime Minister’s name was John Howard.

Since then it has gone from a problem on the horizon to one bashing on the front door and no government, of either persuasion, has sensibly addressed it.

It’ll take the lights actually going out in NSW or Vic to bring about change.

The obvious problem is smurph, most think the looming issue can be solved with the wave of a wand, but when they wave it they will find the magic wand's batteries are flat.

I just don't think people understand, how much 20,000MW of base load power is, they think it's like 100 football fields of solar panels will fix it, just do it.

I don't think either party, or the media has explained how much energy is required 24/7 at call, they just don't seem to visualise the issue.

They show Liddell Power Station 2,000MW, people think oh big shed a couple of paddocks of solar will pizz that off, no one has put the issue in perspective. lol

I'm just glad I live in W.A.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's all back to normal now with transfer capacity between states. Indeed it has been for a couple of days, I was just a bit slower in posting than AEMO were in sorting it all out.

There's still quite a bit of generating plant offline in NSW, a bit over 3000 MW in total, although it poses no immediate threat so long as Qld and Vic can continue to pump out the juice, the latter somewhat reliant on Tas and SA in order to do so but it should all work.

 

[Smurf1976]

Queensland are setting up a new state-owned electricity generation business focused on renewables.

http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2018/8/30/cleanco-to-make-power-bills-cheaper

I make the observation that it's another thing which adds to the overall situation that WA, NT, Qld and Tas all have reasonably well run and reliable power systems whereas NSW/ACT, Vic and SA are in rather a lot of trouble going forward.

SA has taken some steps forward, albeit not enough thus far, but NSW and Vic are barreling down the road toward a cliff hoping that Qld and Tas are going to bail them out.

 

[sptrawler]

Queensland are setting up a new state-owned electricity generation business focused on renewables.

http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2018/8/30/cleanco-to-make-power-bills-cheaper

I make the observation that it's another thing which adds to the overall situation that WA, NT, Qld and Tas all have reasonably well run and reliable power systems whereas NSW/ACT, Vic and SA are in rather a lot of trouble going forward.

SA has taken some steps forward, albeit not enough thus far, but NSW and Vic are barreling down the road toward a cliff hoping that Qld and Tas are going to bail them out.

Yes, I was reading RCR Tomlinson are putting in a few solar plants for them. Seems one of the farms is going to cost RCR dollars with miss quoting and running over budget.
But they do sound like decent installations.

 

[Tisme]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-20/storage-will-be-the-next-biggest-thing-in-energy

"...........As a result, the cost of new-build renewables has been sinking. The highest-cost solar and wind projects in the U.S. will now produce electricity at least as cheaply as the lowest-cost coal plants, according to a report last year by Lazard Inc.........."

 

[Smurf1976]

AEMO has declared a Lack Of Reserve level 1 for NSW between 18:00 and 19:30 today.

In simple terms that means the system is two steps away from blackouts. One generator failure could be coped with but anything beyond that and the lights go out.

There's about 3400 MW of generating plant out of service in NSW at the moment.

 

[sptrawler]

AEMO has declared a Lack Of Reserve level 1 for NSW between 18:00 and 19:30 today.

In simple terms that means the system is two steps away from blackouts. One generator failure could be coped with but anything beyond that and the lights go out.

There's about 3400 MW of generating plant out of service in NSW at the moment.

Should be really interesting when Liddell goes, taking 2000MW out of the equation. What is the difference, between peak winter and peak summer load, smurph?
Even Labor must be getting nervous.

 

[Tisme]

Average retail gross margin per household is between $550 and $800 ? No wonder the bill shock

 

[sptrawler]

Apparently the answer is simple.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-...inister-power-price-solution-curious/10188496

At last you people over East can sleep easy, the problem is sorted, from the article:

"The lowest cost replacement for this retiring capacity and energy will be a portfolio of resources, including solar (28 gigawatts), wind (10.5 GW) and storage (17 GW and 90 GWh), complemented by 500 megawatts of flexible gas plant and transmission investment," it said.

Sorry for my concern, I didn't realise, it was that easy.

Only 500 megawatts of flexible gas plant, that is a really small power station, should be able to put that in suburbia or just outside.

 

[Tisme]

Apparently the answer is simple.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-...inister-power-price-solution-curious/10188496

At last you people over East can sleep easy, the problem is sorted, from the article:

"The lowest cost replacement for this retiring capacity and energy will be a portfolio of resources, including solar (28 gigawatts), wind (10.5 GW) and storage (17 GW and 90 GWh), complemented by 500 megawatts of flexible gas plant and transmission investment," it said.

Sorry for my concern, I didn't realise, it was that easy.

Only 500 megawatts of flexible gas plant, that is a really small power station, should be able to put that in suburbia or just outside.

I'm surprised Angus isn't suggesting putting more suburban pad mounts in to solve the shortage.

 

[sptrawler]

Here we go, the gas industry is saying we are stopping foreign investment in taking more of our gas, because we want to keep some for ourselves. WTF

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-...overnment-policy-investor-confidence/10204284

It really is about time we taxed them by volume, rather than by what they say, they make from it.
They can justify charging us 10%gst on what we import from overseas on ebay, but they can't charge resource companies for what they export.

 

[luutzu]

Here we go, the gas industry is saying we are stopping foreign investment in taking more of our gas, because we want to keep some for ourselves. WTF

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-...overnment-policy-investor-confidence/10204284

It really is about time we taxed them by volume, rather than by what they say, they make from it.
They can justify charging us 10%gst on what we import from overseas on ebay, but they can't charge resource companies for what they export.

But if the gov't were to do tax these companies proper, they'll move their business elsewhere and Australian battlers won't have any jobs. Wait...

If they're taxed, the gov't will get their PM replaced, again.

Soft targets. You take candies from babies, not the 100 pound gorillas who might get you or your kid a job or two after they graduate.

 

[Smurf1976]

Physical supply isn't going well in Vic and NSW at the moment. Just as well the temperature is mild and there's some wind.

Loy Yang A in Vic, the state's largest power station, is only 39% operational at present. Two units dead with a failure at about 2am this morning, one fully operational, one has problems.

Plus every other coal-fired station in both states has at least one generating unit not operational at present.

Whilst I'm doing something else now and indeed living in another state (SA), I'll simply say that the Tas system is subject to a very well thought out approach to maintenance. I won't claim that nothing has ever gone amiss but suffice to say it's working an awful lot better than generation in NSW and Vic is at the moment and just as well.

If stuff keeps breaking then price will be the least of anyone's worries really.

 

[sptrawler]

Here's one for sptrawler. Hydrogen technology breakthrough by CSIRO.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-...-csiro-game-changer-export-potential/10082514

My favorite subject, H2 from renewables.
W.A is jumping on the band wagon, with S.A, installing hydrogen plants.
It will all take a long time, but it will happen.

https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/canadians-join-wa-hydrogen-race-ng-b88946782z

 

[overhang]

I really don't think these articles improve the current debate around energy policy, just because something is possible doesn't mean it should be done. Referring to the below article

Australia could be 100% renewable by 2030s, meet Paris targets by 2025

https://reneweconomy.com.au/austral...ble-by-2030s-meet-paris-targets-by-2025-2025/

 

[sptrawler]

I really don't think these articles improve the current debate around energy policy, just because something is possible doesn't mean it should be done. Referring to the below article

Australia could be 100% renewable by 2030s, meet Paris targets by 2025

https://reneweconomy.com.au/austral...ble-by-2030s-meet-paris-targets-by-2025-2025/

You are spot on, they don't talk about storage and extended periods of low renewable output.
That is the only problem, any muppet can say all's good while the wind is blowing and the sun is shinning, it's what happens when neither happens for a few days or weeks.
I just wish the ABC, who we pay for, would get out there and explain the truth.
Isn't that why we fund them? FFS

 

[Smurf1976]

I really don't think these articles improve the current debate around energy policy

Strongly agreed.

Simple solutions to the energy problem are much the same as simple solutions to investing.

Buy low and sell high. That’s it, easy and anyone can do that.

Management’s another one. Just make a profit, hire staff, fire anyone who’s no good.

Of course anyone who has ever invested or managed anything knows that actually doing these things is where it gets difficult.

Once you actually look at the details all this energy stuff becomes an order of magnitude more complex and rarely is there an easy answer to even one piece of the puzzle.

Having an over abundance of wind and solar on a mild Sunday afternoon in SA doesn’t help just a few hours later when the sun goes down and electricity consumption goes up. It doesn’t fly planes or harvest crops either.

There are ways forward but over simplification isn’t helpful.

 

[SirRumpole]

Having an over abundance of wind and solar on a mild Sunday afternoon in SA doesn’t help just a few hours later when the sun goes down and electricity consumption goes up. It doesn’t fly planes or harvest crops either.

Solved by storage surely ?

But I guess that's an over simplification too.

 

[sptrawler]

Solved by storage surely ?

But I guess that's an over simplification too.

People in Australia have an expectation of electricity 24/7, when they switch on a switch they expect something to happen, they live in a first World country and pay a lot of tax.
It is the same with water, they expect to turn on a tap and get drinking water or press a button on a toilet and it flushes.
At the moment both expectations are met, when they lose the ability to do both, they won't accept the politicians saying well that is just a consequence of going green.

 

[SirRumpole]

People in Australia have an expectation of electricity 24/7, when they switch on a switch they expect something to happen, they live in a first World country and pay a lot of tax.

Yes, we pay a lot of tax, but the pollies have divested the supply of power to private companies and now they are finding that the public still holds them (the government) responsible for the supply of essential services.

The gov't might as well take back responsibility for power delivery, because the public will judge them on its delivery anyway, while private companies will just walk away if it gets too hard, like they did with Hazlewood.