The Fibonacci and Golden ratio myth

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi Riley,

..... you will find that the slight disrepancy in the third
decimal place is due to whether you take a geocentric
or a heliocentric view of the movements of Venus and
its stations ...

.... there's about 1 day difference, so to be more precise:

Venus 225.75/365.25 = .6180698

happy days

yogi

 

[riley]

Hi Yogi,

It is generally accepted in scientific circles that the Sun and planets do not revolve around the Earth (geocentric model) but the planets revolve around the Sun (Heliocentric model)

Therefore I will go with the NASA figures

http://www.astro.utoronto.ca/~zhu/ast210/both.html

which show the ratio between Earth/Venus orbit period (year length) as 0.615 which as the reciprocal of 1.626 is not even close to 1.618 the Golden Ratio.

 

[stevo]

The Fibonacci sequence is useful to the extent that, if you build your own systems, you have to pick some numbers to use - at least as a starting point.

So using 5 or 13 or 21 or 55 or 89 etc is as good as using any other number for moving averages, targets, ATR periods, look back periods etc. I am sure that I could use other number sequences to select numbers but Fibonacci numbers are probably as good as any for my purposes.

I would not suggest that Fibonacci numbers do anything more than any other number sequence in terms of trading. But they are fascinating.

Stevo

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi riley,

..... there's no question about the heliocentric view
and the planetary movements ... however, from our
perspective as traders, we are NOT positioned on the
Sun and therefore, APPARENT planetary moves from
our viewpoint on Earth are VERY relevant to traders,

..... that being the case, .618 IS a valid Venus/Earth
ratio, from a geocentric view.

Just do some in-depth study on Gann or Weingarten,
for more information .....

have a great weekend

yogi

 

[BSD]

..... there's no question about the heliocentric view
and the planetary movements ... however, from our
perspective as traders, we are NOT positioned on the
Sun and therefore, APPARENT planetary moves from
our viewpoint on Earth are VERY relevant to traders,

..... that being the case, .618 IS a valid Venus/Earth
ratio, from a geocentric view.

Just do some in-depth study on Gann or Weingarten,
for more information .....

have a great weekend

yogi

FFS, you could also do a Masters of Applied Finance in the time it would take to 'learn' all the reasons/excuses for the shortcomings in planetary stockpicking.

Then again, you wouldn't be able to sell too many books...

Did Gann print in landscape or portrait?
Did Saturn cause the Copper Demand/Supply relationship of 2006?

Is 100% of this complete rubbish due to coincidence?

 

[riley]

Hi Yogi,

You said in post # 17

"..... and you can also add the OLDEST evidence in the same
sequence ... the ratio of Venus/Earth planetary movements
arounnd the sun, expressed in days:
226/365.25 = .6187542 = reciprocal of 1.618"

I have shown that this is not correct using NASA information as a reference.

You then said in post #21

"..... you will find that the slight disrepancy in the third
decimal place is due to whether you take a geocentric
or a heliocentric view of the movements of Venus and
its stations ...
.... there's about 1 day difference, so to be more precise:
Venus 225.75/365.25 = .6180698"

So by changing to a view where the planets and the Sun revolve around the Earth (geocentric model) you say that the numbers now work out to the Golden ratio.


Please justify your claim that the length of the Venusian year increases by "about 1 day" when you change models, as this is crucial to your argument.
References or links will do fine thanks.

riley

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

FFS, you could also do a Masters of Applied Finance in the time it would take to 'learn' all the reasons/excuses for the shortcomings in planetary stockpicking.

Then again, you wouldn't be able to sell too many books...

Did Gann print in landscape or portrait?
Did Saturn cause the Copper Demand/Supply relationship of 2006?

Is 100% of this complete rubbish due to coincidence?

Applied Finance is aptly put in red to display its worthlessness (though if you want a JOB as a business person, a person of the big world of finance then it may help). The current thinking and teaching of efficient markets and random walks dressed in CAPM, modern portfolio theory etc. is wishful thinking. If it were up the the efficient market theory, for what it is, then why do all funds and banks etc have so many analysts? Think about it.

 

[tech/a]

Is that linear or non-linear mathematics?

According To Kris my Physist son either.
He made arguement either way,which made little sence to me and seemed perfectly normal to him.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

According To Kris my Physist son either.
He made arguement either way,which made little sence to me and seemed perfectly normal to him.

Yes well it is too much for me too.

Where do all calculations start? And is the starting point or base worth its accuracy? Just thinking aloud here.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Riley,

If you view two moving bodies from different points
in the solar system, they they APPARENTLY vary in
their orbital duration.

As Venus and Earth revolve in the same direction around
Sun, the APPARENT time (if taken from Venus or Earth)
will be a little longer, than if viewed from the sun ..... now
that's NOT rocket science is it??

happy days

yogi

 

[motorway]

I previously posted on this paper

http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/stories/resources/Magic_Numbers_in_the_Dow.pdf

Here is a very interesting reply from

Robert Prechter ( for obvious and not so obvious reasons imo)

http://www.socionomics.org/pdf/EW_Fibo_Statistics.pdf


motorway

 

[Knobby22]

I previously posted on this paper

http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/stories/resources/Magic_Numbers_in_the_Dow.pdf

Here is a very interesting reply from

Robert Prechter ( for obvious and not so obvious reasons imo)

http://www.socionomics.org/pdf/EW_Fibo_Statistics.pdf


motorway

Two long and intelligent papers. Thanks for posting motorway.

I agree with Robert Pretcher as I do agree with elliot waves as happening and being part of human nature in trading. You can see the patterns everyday and you can trade by them.

The Fibonecci number price points is not generally true, as shown by the works. I believe it is more there as a way for people to justify their thinking and behaviour. It's good to see such serious works.

 

[Mr J]

I cant explain why these numbers do occur frequently

Self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[kam75]

Bill Williams - 'Trading Chaos' is a very interesting book to read if you're into Fibonacci, Elliott and Fractals. I'm a mathematician by qualification and have fiddled with all sorts of stuff over the years. Fractals and Fibonacci relationships are definitely found in market prices, just like in any complex, interacting system. Williams has put together a trading system based on this. Reckons if you ever doubt that it works, pay him at his trading room a visit. I traded his system in the Forex markets and although it seemed to work at times, I could not get any consistent results. The Fractals worked well when a trend happened. But otherwise it seemed better to just buy a break of resistance or sell a break of support. So next time I'm in the States, I may go and have a look at how well it works for him.

 

[motorway]

Forward displaced Moving averages -- Alligator mouth ?

Either a 3 or 5 bar pattern with the mid bar higher or lower
as the "fractal"

I am not so sure He has not moved away from that stuff

Markets are Fractal YES

Demand and Supply operate similar on all scales

But same major flaw here as in EW
and most of the so called "fractal" analysis..

They use the wrong Time Scale
and can be blindsided by the many artifacts thrown up by the "TIME FRAME"

They are always will be using the WRONG Time Frame

Because

Physical time””is an approach (only) suitable for inanimate objects

That should be obvious if it moves it MOVES

For such a thing

A time frame Conceals and Blurs
and is illusion esp the longer the Time Frame

but even watching 1 sec bars ( less distortion of some aspects of reality )
Has obvious problems , some serious...

As I watch the Cat in the Yard stalking Butterflies
it IS obvious...

motorway

 

[skyQuake]

Forward displaced Moving averages -- Alligator mouth ?

Either a 3 or 5 bar pattern with the mid bar higher or lower
as the "fractal"

I am not so sure He has not moved away from that stuff

Markets are Fractal YES

Demand and Supply operate similar on all scales

But same major flaw here as in EW
and most of the so called "fractal" analysis..

They use the wrong Time Scale
and can be blindsided by the many artifacts thrown up by the "TIME FRAME"

They are always will be using the WRONG Time Frame

Because



That should be obvious if it moves it MOVES

For such a thing

A time frame Conceals and Blurs
and is illusion esp the longer the Time Frame

but even watching 1 sec bars ( less distortion of some aspects of reality )
Has obvious problems , some serious...

As I watch the Cat in the Yard stalking Butterflies
it IS obvious...

motorway

Fairly cryptic post, but i think am getting the gist of it.
Have you found P&F charts to be more effective than constant volume charts?

cheers

 

[motorway]

I have not used Constant Volume Bars Enough

I have to a point compared them to P&F
There were many similarities how they unfolded

They nearly ( limited experience ) moved indentically

I think over large scale P&F would be better

And I think it very useful that the P&F chart will stop moving sidways

I think possibly as you move up or down box size.. You get a better nesting of fractal realtionships

eg take williams fractal


consider such a pattern on P&F Take 5 columns
Wait for number three column to be high or lower than the two each side

Such a pattern really is scale invariant on the P&F it will always mean something it is always there... The 5 min hour daily etc bars are not really there, they are arbitrary ..

I would not dismiss CVB but what is correct volume
With P&F the trading range amplitude I am interested in defines itself

maybe same with CVB ?

motorway

 

[motorway]

Cryptic ?

To the Cat and The Butterfly

There are only really two particular moments that will matter..

The one where the cat readies to spring ( if the Buttefly notes this it can "postion" itself to negate the cats pounce )

And the one when the cat actually pounces

If the butterfly is watching with a 5 min bar chart he is eaten
Even if he does EW analysis

If the butterfly is watching a 1 sec bar chart , there is long time of nothing
a whole aeon , He probably falls asleep..and is eaten..

Now if the butterfly is smart he has a trading range ( recoil & pounce range )
amplitude P&F or CVB ( V = energy expended by cat )

Now the Butterfly observes the Cat move and moves FIRST


It does not fall through the cracks of a Time Frame , is obsured by the bluntness of a time frame

or jumps at the artifacts of a time frame.

Does the cat move or not and what is best way to see in context..


motorway

 

[motorway]

Fairly cryptic post, but i think am getting the gist of it.
Have you found P&F charts to be more effective than constant volume charts?

cheers

have a look at this thread

on some discussion and examples
of P&F, CVB, CRB & CTB


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8741&page=2

P&F might still be the best non linear chart
columns are neither constant price, volume or time
adaptive is real

P&F chart is almost a constant nothing
no limits on how many columns or how long the columns

motorway

 

[OzWaveGuy]

I've been following along with this thread and thought it might be worth putting some opinions up on the Fibonacci golden ratio and it's occurrence/non-occurrence in the stockmarket.

Some thoughts:

The Golden Ratio both does and doesn't occur regularly in the stockmarket - specifically within indexes. Confused, don't be, it depends on your point of view and the 'tools' you use that can assist in identifying such ratios.

For example, using Elliott Wave analysis can readily identify the 'golden ratio' in terms of price relationships between waves of the same degree and moving in the same direction. On the XAO, the 61.8% relationship (plus or minus 5% - it'll hardly ever be exact) occurs regularly enough to warrant caution or can be used to set a preliminary price target (using 61.8% or 161.8%) once one wave has been completed.

For those not using Elliott wave, it will most likely be of lesser value to worry about such ratios. The main issue would be in identifying the start and end of waves to commence price measurements from in the first place. On the odd occasion a rough 61.8% corrective retracement may appear from a top or bottom, but it shouldn't be expected (50% would probably be a better ratio if you plan to use ratios for corrections in the first place).

Some close 61.8% examples are below from the XAO at different degrees. For those looking for '3 decimal points' of accuracy - it won't be there, but as you can see, there are some close relationships in wave price to the 61.8% ratio

(There are several other dimensions that I haven't commented on or investigated to any deep extent, such as time, Fib sequences on both time and price).

Hope this helps those looking to better understand Fib ratios in the market, but will ultimately depend on your 'tooling' and whether fib ratios have any place in your trading plan at all.