The CSM Thread! (Coal Seam Methane)

[Sean K]

Hi Kennas.

One of the lesser-known junior companies. Disclosure: I hold CRM.

Thanks MM, I'll add it in.

Surprised some of the other long term CSG'ers haven't jumped in to add.

Maybe it's just due to the negative tone of the market at the moment.

 

[beerwm]

Also, Is GIIP the same as 3P?

I noticed YT used $1 per 1P and $2 per 2P??

I think GIP [gas in place] is just an estimate - without drilling

1P P90 - proven
2P P50 - proven/probable
3P P10 - proven/probable/possible

inclusive - i think

 

[Mad Mel]

From my conversations with clients in the O&G industry, I think the official GIP methodology is to have a reservoir engineer throw darts at a wall covered in post-it notes with numbers on them.

 

[Dukey]

I'm with you on gas in place. there are some wild figures floating around from some companies - but recoverability is another thing altogether. Of course if the blokes next door are getting X out of the same coal seams - then that gives some idea of the recovery factor.

The other thing that seems to get forgotten I think, is how many holes will be required... BG (ex QGC) for example in the sweet spot of Walloon coals are yielding well over 1million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) and over 2 Mill in some places. Others in the bowen basin for example are struggling to reach 0.5 Mill CFD (from what I've seen), meaning that they need 2, 3 or 4 holes to produce the same amount of gas. ( one would presume !?)
It might still be economic - but not as good as central walloons...

...many things to consider in CSG.

see this old post in QGC thread.... https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=29632&highlight=mmcfd#post29632

I'll try to find time to add some bit n pieces to your file kennas.

-D

 

[grace]

Thanks MM, I'll add it in.

Surprised some of the other long term CSG'ers haven't jumped in to add.

Maybe it's just due to the negative tone of the market at the moment.

Yes, I'm a die hard, but I'm a touch busy at present. Hope to get to it on the w/end.

 

[Dukey]

added a little.

 

[Sean K]

Thanks Dukey. I've added to my master sheet.

Any idea on how to identify the value of the reserves? Do you just times the PJ by the average value of recent deals? Or, do you do compare the reserves to EV?

 

[Dukey]

Thanks Dukey. I've added to my master sheet.

Any idea on how to identify the value of the reserves? Do you just times the PJ by the average value of recent deals? Or, do you do compare the reserves to EV?

No worries.

Value - I tend to look at $/PJ x PJ - both 2P and 3P.
People seem to be using $2M for 2P and $1M for 3P at the moment.
But i'd tend to be a bit more conservative at the moment.
MEL has a good chart of recent transactions in their presentations.
- GIP figures I tend to take with a grain of salt.

For companies with little certification - might be best to go on 3P numbers - but more risk and waiting for certification involved etc.. .

Then I'd have a look at the EV and see how it balances up, and consider other factors. Management (obviously) and Location are important - ie in or next to good proven coal measures, near infrastructure.
Some companies are all talk and no action - I've been dissappointed with BUL on that front - but still hold a few figuring they'll hit paydirt somewhere eventually!!

gotta shot to work!

-good luck - d

 

[Couchtrader]

CTP has over 1 trn tonnes of coal (over 100mtrs thick seam)and have a jv with BG ( who took over qgc) yet you dont mention them With ctp drill programme to be released in july we expect 5 cbm wells drilled flow tested etc to verify CTP will have huge amounts of CBM CT

 

[Sean K]

CTP has over 1 trn tonnes of coal (over 100mtrs thick seam)and have a jv with BG ( who took over qgc) yet you dont mention them With ctp drill programme to be released in july we expect 5 cbm wells drilled flow tested etc to verify CTP will have huge amounts of CBM CT

Well, thanks for mentioning. Since you know them perhaps you can add in the detail we need for the spreadsheet. Cheers!!

Require the following info:

Company
Loc
Acerage
Shares on issue
Options
Share price
Cash
Debt
GIIP
3P
2P
1P
Comments

 

[happytown]

CTP has over 1 trn tonnes of coal (over 100mtrs thick seam) ...

from their may ann re their 2009 drilling program

...

Central Petroleum Limited, (CTP) plans a robust exploration programme commencing in the second half of 2009 to build upon the successes of its 2008 programme which resulted in the publication of an independent report that has estimated a coal “Exploration Target” potential of between 0.6-1.3 trillion tonnes above 1,000m

having said that they have enormous tenements covering 250,000 sq kms

cheers

 

[Sean K]

from their may ann re their 2009 drilling program

having said that they have enormous tenements covering 250,000 sq kms

cheers

Thanks for correcting that HT.

I do hope that was just an oversight by the original poster.

 

[grace]

ECU Eastern Corporation
Subsidiary is Galilee Energy (67% owned) who holds the permits in Galilee Basin.

Acreage 10000km².
100 mill shares (has just done some rights issue so that is if everyone took up offer - could be less)
sp = 28c
Max mc = $28mill
Cash $8mill
GIP 20 000PJ on ATP529 (this is not net - sorry AGL are farming in @50%)
No certification, target of 500PJ of 2P for 2010 (250PJ net to Galilee)
Also a coal miner in NZ which aledgedly is to be profitable in 2010.

Drilling fully funded for ATP529P by AGL. Drilling program H2/09. Rocky creek 8 drill looks interesting
-24 metres Betts & Aramac Coal
-up to 100mD showing high permeability
-gas content 4.4m3/tonne
-97-98% methane
Rocky Creek 8 at least looks very promising on those stats......

80km from both Moomba and Brisbane pipelines. Mr Palmer coming out to dig up some coal not too far away too.........

 

[grace]

BUL Blue Energy
Shares 445 mill + 50mill oppies + 118m on spp = 613mill (however placement to Korean Gas of 10% not yet accounted for. Korean Gas is largest LNG player in the world)
sp = 20c
MC = $123 mill
Cash = $33 mill before Korean Gas

Surat/Bowen/Galilee Basins
P50 GIP 22000PJ (22TCF)
P10 GIP 37000PJ (37TCF)

Gas certification due Q2/2010

Also have interests in PNG and oil in Australia.
Korean Gas have option to farm-in on ATP813P & 814P.
Is undertaking Galilee Basin pipeline study (good news also for ECU).

CSG acreage 27000km²

 

[Dukey]

MPO Molopo
Mix of CBM and conventional gas and oil across Oz, quebec, Sth Africa, west virginia and china! planning to rationalise some non-core assets.

Shares 183mill + 6.3mill employee oppies = 190 mill
sp =1.08c
MC = ~$200 mill
Cash = $120 mill in dec 08.

Bowen/Clarence Moreton Basins in Oz.
net Qld Reserves - 11PJ 1P; 48 2P ; 231 3P. 729 contingent

net Overseas reserves - 36 2P ; 118 3P. 941 contingent.

GIIP estimates - Qld = 3750PJ ;Sth Africa ? ; Quebec = 35000 PJ ; China = 240 PJ

CSG acreage 1580km² in qld.

================

Kennas - any chance of posting up the latest version when you consolidate it, so we can see how we are going! ..

 

[pointr]

A url to an article on 'Bloomberg' about Korea Gas and Mitsubishi looking to diversify their LNG sources, areas under consideration include Australia for CSM and Shale gas from Canada.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aQys3BN2D9nA
It will be nice if MPO can develop something from their large acreage position in Canada that is being viewed as a shale play. We hold some

 

[Sean K]

I've updated the spreadsheet, but it's not complete. Prices correct as at today.

Work in progress.

If anyone has some updated info please post.

For eg, WCL recently ann'd first 3P. Not included yet.

 

[skc]

I've updated the spreadsheet, but it's not complete. Prices correct as at today.

Work in progress.

If anyone has some updated info please post.

For eg, WCL recently ann'd first 3P. Not included yet.

Nice one Kennas. Just noticing that EV to 3P calculation should be the other way round. i.e. EV / 3P.

The smaller the number, the more undervalued it is relatively...

 

[Sean K]

Nice one Kennas. Just noticing that EV to 3P calculation should be the other way round. i.e. EV / 3P.

The smaller the number, the more undervalued it is relatively...

Ooops, cheers. Will amend.

It's EV / P...

Looking forward to this expanding a bit and getting the correct info.

Open to suggestions for improvement of course!!

 

[CapnBirdseye]

Just trying to get a handle on INP's CSM worth.

Now 2Independent consultants Resource Investment Strategy Consultants has calculated that the Innamincka Dome contains an estimated potential high side recoverable CSG resource of up to 800 Billion standard cubic feet (“Bscf”).

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...seam-gas-targets-with-agl-in-august-1855.html

AGL have taken 35% and 37.5% interest in PEL103 and PEL101.

What I really want to know is is there a rule of thumb for converting Bscf to PJ?