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The CSM Thread! (Coal Seam Methane)

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Re: The CSM Thread!

Chops I've got

QGC
1P 477
2P 1317
3P 3116

SHG Sunshine GAs
1P 44
2P 469
3P 1097

SXP to drill this year (farm outs to ESG and LNC on some leases) SXP have found a couple of billion tonne of sub-bitumous coal as a starting point.
 
Whilst trying to compile more data I found exactly what I was trying to achieve in an announcement by MEL on the 15/01/2008 titled 'Investor Presentation' there is a detailed list of CSM producers/explorers (QCG, AOE, SHG, ESG, SGL, MPO, MEL, BUL, PES) and their market cap, share price, net 1p, net 2p and net 3p etc.. located on page 18.

I know the data in the graph says 'as at 14/01/07' but to me (confirmed via a quick look back at historical share prices) thats an error and should infact be 'as at 14/01/08'.

I wasn't sure if I'm allowed to post a picture of the table so instead I've posted the link,

cheers.
 
joelc said:
Whilst trying to compile more data I found exactly what I was trying to achieve in an announcement by MEL on the 15/01/2008 titled 'Investor Presentation' there is a detailed list of CSM producers/explorers (QCG, AOE, SHG, ESG, SGL, MPO, MEL, BUL, PES) and their market cap, share price, net 1p, net 2p and net 3p etc.. located on page 18.

I know the data in the graph says 'as at 14/01/07' but to me (confirmed via a quick look back at historical share prices) thats an error and should infact be 'as at 14/01/08'.

I wasn't sure if I'm allowed to post a picture of the table so instead I've posted the link,

cheers.
Click to expand...

Just looking at some of my notes, my figures seem to differ from the report ie they should be higher. As an example, ESG have 3P of 1300 (not zero as per that investor presentation). Looks like we might have to do it the hard way.
 
Not a mention of MOS. One of the juniors but one that has ownership of infrastructure, gas wells and good lease areas. Floundering along for ages now. Will it come good? Any suggestions why it hasn't performed better?
 
Re: The CSM Thread!

grace said:
Chops I've got

QGC
1P 477
2P 1317
3P 3116

SHG Sunshine GAs
1P 44
2P 469
3P 1097

SXP to drill this year (farm outs to ESG and LNC on some leases) SXP have found a couple of billion tonne of sub-bitumous coal as a starting point.
Click to expand...

Hello Grace , BPT's CSM assets are worth consideration....in particular BPT has 40% of the advanced Tipton West JV with AOE where production is growing strongly. From Quarterly to Dec 31 07.....

Tipton West Reserve Upgrade
On 16 January 2008, the results of a review of Tipton West reserves by
Netherland, Sewell & Associates Inc (“NSAI”) were announced. This review
resulted in Proved reserves increasing by 570% to 167 PJ and Proved and
Probable reserves increasing by 68% to 293 PJ. These reserve increases have arisen from the results of development drilling and field production
performance.

Net to Beach Share(40%)
PJ mmboe
1P 67 11.5
2P 117 20.2
3P 926 159.3
Click to expand...
Reserves relate to the 40%BPT has in Dalby Block ATP683P & PL198 with AOE.
Beyond this, BPT has option to earn 40% in adjoining ATP683 Dalby South & also ATP689. (All with AOE I think).
Further north has option to earn 50% in ATP768P (Champagne Ck/taroom) that SHG is involved in.

I hold BPT as a diversified energy-play.
More recently am becoming very interested in developments in the NSW CSM sector. Overshadowed by QLD activity to date, but ripe for both expansion & M&A as the electricity privatisation unfolds.
Hold AJL as my preferred CSM exposure but have added some SGL <$0.30 & MPO < $0.50 as I think their association with AJL will benefit hugely all. SGL's Merriwa project has huge reserve potential & is very complementary to AJL/MPO Gloucester project.
IMO AJL's mastery of the preferred SIS (In Seam) drilling technique is a key to unlocking SGL's huge landholding, and probably the only way SGL will get the big $incentives on offer from AGL($40+mill) if reserves targets are met within the next year.
 
One that I have held for awhile now is EPG. I have attached the latest Oil Barrell write up here:

From http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html hot off the press ...
----------------------------------------------

"Like Afren, European Gas Limited has also seen big changes since its last appearance at an oilbarrel.com event some 12 months ago (although not, alas, in the share price). The ASX-listed company has not only consolidated its hold on its coal bed methane projects in France through the acquisition of its former partner Heritage Petroleum but it has also extended its asset base with the award of the Lons le Saunier permit and added production to the books through the �26.2 million acquisition of Gazonor, owner of the Nord Pas de Calais coal mine methane project.

This is a project with immediate benefit (production is always nice to have on the books and last year the CMM generated revenues of �8 million), medium-term development opportunities (through operational efficiencies and new drilling), longer term upside (by exploring the coal bed methane possibilities) and even longer term gas storage and CO2 sequestration activities.

For now, the company is looking to use the gas to supply electricity - the methane gets a premium �energie de recuperation� tariff of �80 per MW hour - to drill additional drainage holes and strip out inefficiencies. �This was a low priority asset for CdF [the former owner] and that�s the opportunity for us,� said MD Tony McClure. �They were in exit mode and little was done in terms of capital investment.� He expects to double revenues over the next 18 months just by �looking at the cost side and moving about 20 per cent of the production over to electricity generation, without doing much production enhancement work�.

Longer term, the real interest here lies in the CBM potential. Some 2.5 billion tonnes of coal were extracted from this historical coal mining region, which is only about 10 per cent of the in situ coal, leaving plenty of CBM potential. �CBM is the principal target here,� said McClure. �This project�s CBM potential is up there with the size of our Lorraine project.


Lorraine is the company�s most advanced CBM project, with plans to target about 1 tcf of gas in the first phase of development. Progress here has, as McClure acknowledged in response to a delegate�s question, been slow. �It�s been through a lot more science than we envisaged and we�ve spent a lot more money using North American labs and experts,� he explained. �Rig availability has also been a constraining factor. We�re okay for rigs for the next six months but it�s going to get very tight after that.� (The French government is apparently planning to use 20 rigs on a nuclear energy-related project: McClure noted there aren�t even 20 rigs in France.)

Progress may have been slow but it has been promising. The results from initial test wells have been encouraging, encountering coal thicknesses and gas contents significantly higher than anticipated. The Folschviller-1 well, for example, encountered four major packets of 10 to 15 metres each, which may not rival the 25 to 40 metre coal packets in the prolific Powder River Basin in Wyoming but does eclipse the coals in Australia. A pilot production test in now underway using lateral completions to counter the low permeability coals and the company is expecting production of between 1 and 2 million cubic feet per day per well. The longer term potential here is significant: this could be a possible 200-well operation at which point Lorraine could be producing between five and ten per cent of France�s domestic gas needs."
---------------------------------------------------

The 31p oilbarrrel presentation can be viewed at http://www.ob-data.com/conference/feb08/europeangas.pdf
 
Joelc

Just a wee caution about the reserves comparisions in annual reports, eg on page 17 /18 of the Metgasco report to which you refer. To take the example of Molopo (MPO), which I follow closely and disclose holdings in, Metgasco reports MPO's resources as 1p 11, 2p 97 and 3p 283.

Whereas MPO has potentially over 1500 pj recoverable within Australia, plus further resources (to be quantified) in China, Canada and South Africa, and over $30 mil cash for exploration. I consider it undervalued relative to its peers.

That said, there are several excellent alternative companies, a couple of which I see are mentioned in this thread, and, to an extent, the choice is a matter of personal preference.

Pure reserves comparisons of course do not (and I appreciate you will be aware of this) take account of the ability of management, ease of commercialisation (which will be very tricky for some; hence the value of companies, or partnerships with established producers or engineers, eg such as SGL and AJL) etc. Finally, there is much in certification (as with all things) and some certifications are more reliable than others ... hence important to check the management's and certifiers reputation.

Cheers.
 
Have any of you guys ever looked into MAE ?
I've been following it for 18motnhs now went from 60c last year to a high of $1.80 and looked to have good support at $1.00. I think they even got a pretty big investing bank to buy heaps at 90 c.
operations based in Utah in the US from what I understand their reserves are about
1p: not sure but if any is low.
2p:250-300
3P1000+

Certainly not QGC but they reckon they are going to release good flow rates and production from their first 8 or so wells. Also been seeing some unusual trading in the last couple weeks. About 10-15 very small parcel trades happen throughout the day often in quick procession and they always seem to be selling low to try push down the price? Often there are also stacked large buy orders. Anyone seen trading like this before? I thought it might just be some computer working short term trends.
 
Couldn't find a Roma thread but I've been watching this for a while and may be worth a look?
Hard to value this CSM thing but they've got oil revenue also.
 

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Nice bit of media coverage on both Queensland Gas and Linc Energy in the "centrefold" of the Courier Mail yesterday. Two pages, plus lots of pictures. Quite a good read. QGC target 1000 wells (currently 239).

Linc believes a $700million plant 20kms from Chinchilla could produce 20 000 barrels of fuel a day (when built).

Ms Bligh said the region is expected to create another 16 000 full-time jobs by 2030.
 
wow, glad my porfolio is loaded up with csgers! The last few days have been good, and then the BG offer for Origin has resparked the flames!

ABC 7.30 report last night was also very interesting with mention of reliance on gas and coal going forward (as opposed to oil)....
 
G'day all

I guess everyone in the Coal seam gas and now the UCG/GTL sectors must be pretty happy with the gains over the last 2 months!!!

Just for comparison - a few results since mid march - when things seemed to start jumping/

AOE up ~ 80%
QGC up ~ 100%
SHG up ~ 100%
PES up ~ 150%
SXP up ~ 190%
ICN up ~ 200%
BOW up ~ 50%
MEL up ~ 25%
MPO up ~ 60%
ESG up ~ 100%
SGL up ~ 68%
AJL up ~ 60%

UCG/GTL companies:

LNC up ~ 275% !!!
MEE up ~ 130%
CXY up ~ 150%

Have been wondering today if the bigger CSG players (QGC/AOE and the like) might be looking at the up-coming UCG companies and rubbing their hands together for a tilt at a take-over??
Seems to make perfect sense to me, for the big players with big acreages, to try to get the most out of their deep coal holdings.
BUT - I'm not sure if it's feasible to extract CSG first then come back and go for the UCG.

Does anyone know - do they need different or particular types of coal? or will UCG processes work in any coal beds. ... any ideas...???

g'luck all - Dukey
 
Dukey: CSM gas requires a reasonably specific composition / geological structure of coal; which fortunately is widespread in Queensland (and US / India / China / Pakistan etc). I think AOE has the most of it in Queenland (hence no doubt Shell's interest); and Orion the most in Au, but it is difficult to really be sure given the new reserves estimates of various companies. It is far easier to extract than UGC and is proven technology. It requires less precision than oil well drilling.

UGC has, as I understand it, less specific requirements and thus could be used in more places (ie including the same international places), but the technology is more complex. It is used overseas but really needs a few technological advances to make it more efficient and less environmentally unfriendly (hence Mee / Cxy / CSIRO efforts). It also requires more effort to lead to production.

There is, from a government report I read about 2002 - 2004, about 100,000 pj of suitable coal for both in Au (and probably far more 1, 2 and 3 p since then) so both will have sufficient reserves for many many years.

Not sure of how effective trying to use ex CSM coal for UCG is. I would be interested in any reply.

I disclose holdings in AOE and CXY.:)
 
Building on Dukey's post above, thought be interesting to keep a eye on the performance of the CSM stable over the following month(s). A few early bolters but how will the field respond as the race unfolds beyond the Closing Price 3/6/08:
CSM companies:[/:
AJL 6.90
AOE 3.88
BOW 0.515
BPT 1.67
ESG 0.77
ICN 0.35
MEL 1.30
MPO 1.81
ORG 15.70
PES 2.50
QGC 5.69
SGL 0.495
SHG 2.58
SXP 0.61
STO 21.77 any others? some are marginal inclusions

UCG/GTL companies:
BLK 0.45
CXY 0.185
GLX 0.40
LNC 3.75
MEE 0.75
 
Roger, Rogue. Adjusted. Are they your fav. CSM picks??

Closing Price 3/6/08:
CSM companies:
AJL 6.90
AOE 3.88
BLU 0.41
BOW 0.515
BPT 1.67
ESG 0.77
ICN 0.35
MEL 1.30
MPO 1.81
OIP 0.12
ORG 15.70
PES 2.50
QGC 5.69
SGL 0.495
SHG 2.58
SXP 0.61
STO 21.77
WCL 0.73

UCG/GTL companies:
BLK 0.45
CXY 0.185
GLX 0.40
LNC 3.75
MEE 0.75 any others? some are marginal inclusions
 
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