The Bull shall Return

[Kipp]

Goodbye planet Earth if the Asians become like the west.:fan

Wayne, I think it's a little bit unfair that we **** ourselves and cry "enivironmental disaster" when the India/China middle class takes to cars and consumption. God forbid that the are as bad as the U.S.!

Australia and the U.S. have squillions of dollars and had access to enviro friendly means of electricity generation and cars for decades--- but have invested in any of them?

 

[wayneL]

Wayne, I think it's a little bit unfair that we **** ourselves and cry "enivironmental disaster" when the India/China middle class takes to cars and consumption. God forbid that the are as bad as the U.S.!

Australia and the U.S. have squillions of dollars and had access to enviro friendly means of electricity generation and cars for decades--- but have invested in any of them?

Yes it is unfair. Unfair to the next generations who must cope with a degraded and poisoned planet.

Ah ^%$# it! The Earth is screwed anyway. Lets "eat, drink and be merry, for tommorrow we die"

Cheers

 

[bullmarket]

I don't think the bulls are back with any real conviction yet

On the weekly XJO chart below the 5 week MA hasn't crossed above the 20 week MA yet. The Stochastic indicator (top indicator) gave an unconvincing buy signal 2 weeks ago but the MACD (bottom indicator) is no where near saying buy yet.

As per the last few weeks, I still think XJO will trade in the ~4800 - 5000 range for the forseeable future.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Yes it is unfair. Unfair to the next generations who must cope with a degraded and poisoned planet.

Ah ^%$# it! The Earth is screwed anyway. Lets "eat, drink and be merry, for tommorrow we die"

Cheers

Here here, lets all just have fun, the world was meant to come to a halt in 2000 courtesy of the big bad millenium bug so we're probably on borrowed time, everyone should sell their portfolios and buy sports cars

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

The 'hot money' that has chased AUM and UXA are clear evidence to me that there are plenty of bulls in the starting line waiting, I think we are in for a really big upswing very shortly when all the hot money gets tired of waiting on the sidelines and jumps back in, Mid July onwards in my opinion!

 

[bullmarket]

Hi young_trader

The 'hot money' that has chased AUM and UXA are clear evidence to me that there are plenty of bulls in the starting line waiting, I think we are in for a really big upswing very shortly when all the hot money gets tired of waiting on the sidelines and jumps back in, Mid July onwards in my opinion!

I'm still not convinced as evidenced by the weekly XJO chart I posted earlier.

Yes, there might be a tradional new financial year rally in July but imo it will be short lived especially if interest rates continue to rise in the US and locally

cheers

bullmarket

 

[chennyleeeee]

The market drives itself. All this interest rate, economy, dow jones and blah blah blah blah are just an excuse to explain the movement. These things are only so important because we put so much importance on it.

UBS conducted an experiment some time ago and it found that the country that loses a world cup game, their stock market tends to go down the following trading day. Explain that to me. hahaha .....And we get all the analysts who would probably blame lack of consumer demand, failed marketing, blah blah blah and the price goes down 10% just because of some incident which fundamentally does nothing to a company in the long run.

We drive the market, if i wanted the stock price of say BHP to go up and if i had the money to do so, I'll buy every single one listed and watch it blossom. The market aint perfect and a bull shall only return when everyone as a group starts believing that all this hype about who noes what next wont mean anything and start bidding the prices up. There's just too much uncertainty atm so no one wants to be in the market atm. When things cool down and there isnt all this hype stirring up the market, ppl will come back and alls well.

Say for instance the monday effect we had years ago. If we all believe on monday the shares go up. We'll all go buy shares on monday, excessive demand drives the prices up. The market is self fulfilling.


Anyways, enough of my prophecies. Feel free to debate my opinions.

CHEN

 

[wayneL]

The market drives itself. All this interest rate, economy, dow jones and blah blah blah blah are just an excuse to explain the movement. These things are only so important because we put so much importance on it.

UBS conducted an experiment some time ago and it found that the country that loses a world cup game, their stock market tends to go down the following trading day. Explain that to me. hahaha .....And we get all the analysts who would probably blame lack of consumer demand, failed marketing, blah blah blah and the price goes down 10% just because of some incident which fundamentally does nothing to a company in the long run.

We drive the market, if i wanted the stock price of say BHP to go up and if i had the money to do so, I'll buy every single one listed and watch it blossom. The market aint perfect and a bull shall only return when everyone as a group starts believing that all this hype about who noes what next wont mean anything and start bidding the prices up. There's just too much uncertainty atm so no one wants to be in the market atm. When things cool down and there isnt all this hype stirring up the market, ppl will come back and alls well.

Say for instance the monday effect we had years ago. If we all believe on monday the shares go up. We'll all go buy shares on monday, excessive demand drives the prices up. The market is self fulfilling.


Anyways, enough of my prophecies. Feel free to debate my opinions.

CHEN

Valid comment. Sentiment rules in the short-medium term.

But it ignores the REAL driver of the market over the LONG TERM.

Fundamental value! When fundamental value is exceeded, eventually people sell.... sometimes en mass.

Cheers

 

[cuttlefish]

The 'hot money' that has chased AUM and UXA are clear evidence to me that there are plenty of bulls in the starting line waiting!

They're just speculative plays and an indication that there are still people around and still volatility. Not sure I'd call $5million turnover in a day 'hot money' its relatively small from a market perpsective.

I think Wayne's got it right - ultimately fundamentals do drive markets. When they're overvalued and the fundamentals aren't improving they will get driven down over the medium to long term, and the reverse applies if they are undervalued and the fundamentals are improving.

The level of excitement that occurs in speculative plays is high at the top of a bull market where people buy companies with no earnings and little in the way of tangible assets*, while at the bottom of a bear market a small cap can hold more cash than its market cap and still people find excuses not to buy it.

(* I'm not saying UXA or AUM are in this category I know very little about them)

 

[shasta]

It's fear and greed (emotion, sentiment - call it what you will) that mainly drive the market up and down and fear and greed is determined, subliminally at least, on fundamentals to various degrees depending on each individual....eg...rumours (although rumours are not technically a fundamental ), local/global economic outlook, announcements, company valuations, company forecasts/outlook, balance sheet/financial performance etc etc and hence whether you think a share price is expensive or cheap.

The market drives itself. All this interest rate, economy, dow jones and blah blah blah blah are just an excuse to explain the movement. These things are only so important because we put so much importance on it.

UBS conducted an experiment some time ago and it found that the country that loses a world cup game, their stock market tends to go down the following trading day. Explain that to me. hahaha .....And we get all the analysts who would probably blame lack of consumer demand, failed marketing, blah blah blah and the price goes down 10% just because of some incident which fundamentally does nothing to a company in the long run.

We drive the market, if i wanted the stock price of say BHP to go up and if i had the money to do so, I'll buy every single one listed and watch it blossom. The market aint perfect and a bull shall only return when everyone as a group starts believing that all this hype about who noes what next wont mean anything and start bidding the prices up. There's just too much uncertainty atm so no one wants to be in the market atm. When things cool down and there isnt all this hype stirring up the market, ppl will come back and alls well.

Say for instance the monday effect we had years ago. If we all believe on monday the shares go up. We'll all go buy shares on monday, excessive demand drives the prices up. The market is self fulfilling.


Anyways, enough of my prophecies. Feel free to debate my opinions.

CHEN

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

The 'hot money' that has chased AUM and UXA are clear evidence to me that there are plenty of bulls in the starting line waiting, I think we are in for a really big upswing very shortly when all the hot money gets tired of waiting on the sidelines and jumps back in, Mid July onwards in my opinion!

My oh my did the Bull Ever get up and charge on AUM

But also look at the flow on effect it had on URL and EXS,

Without Analysing its fundamentals take a look at the chart of PYM almost 400% in 2 weeks

I think we're starting to see that Super Speculative Period emerging that I was talking about, a period where alot of resource companies will simply skyrocket on weak to poor fundamanetal ann, ie drilling results/intersections, resource estimates, in-situ value of ore etc etc

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hi young_trader



I'm still not convinced as evidenced by the weekly XJO chart I posted earlier.

Yes, there might be a tradional new financial year rally in July but imo it will be short lived especially if interest rates continue to rise in the US and locally

cheers

bullmarket

Aus rates on hold, XJO holding around 5100, what does our chart say Bull?

Is it failing to break resistance or it consolidating around 5100?

I would have thought consolidation, but then I'm no tech

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Copper up 5%
Zinc up 5%
Gold up to recent high of $630+

If these gains hold throughout the night, tommorrow shall be a ripper!

 

[ctp6360]

I never doubted you for a second YT
(btw I'm back from my holiday on the 11th of July, Hawaii is beautiful! I just found out Bill Gates stayed here 3 weeks ago...I need to start digging on the beach in case he left any treasure!)

 

[wayneL]

I never doubted you for a second YT
(btw I'm back from my holiday on the 11th of July, Hawaii is beautiful! I just found out Bill Gates stayed here 3 weeks ago...I need to start digging on the beach in case he left any treasure!)

We expect a comprehensive report on your travels C...and a round of drinks at the pub if you find that treasure

 

[wayneL]

Copper up 5%
Zinc up 5%
Gold up to recent high of $630+

If these gains hold throughout the night, tommorrow shall be a ripper!

Interesting!

The US mining stocks didn't do much. Base metal miners did nothing. BHP & RTP (RIO) ADR's didn't do much. Some goldies even down a tad. Not even any currency moves to be able to explain it away

Perhaps some skepticism about the recent moves in the metals?

ASX will be telling, but no leads from the SYCOM at this stage.

 

[moses]

Copper Surges, Leads Metals Rally, on Renewed Demand by Investment Funds - Bloomberg, Jul 06, 2006 15:04

 

[moses]

European Stocks Gain on Growth Outlook; HSBC, BHP Billiton Pace Advance European stocks resumed their advance on speculation the region's economy can withstand higher borrowing costs.

U.K. FTSE 100 Index Climbs to Two-Month High; Oil, Mining Stocks Pace Gain The U.K.'s benchmark FTSE 100 Index rose to a two-month high, lifted by energy producers including BP Plc and Cairn Energy Plc after oil yesterday reached a record.

 

[mit]

The XJO seems to have hit a resistance. We'll see what happens with a strong lead from the DOW overnight does, whether this is going to be a double top or not.

MIT

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

We're through as far as I can see, XJO gapped up above 5100 this morning