The Bottom Question

[ASXNoob]

Was last Friday (21st) the bottom of the market at 5 year lows?

If not how much further will the index fall?

Will we see a steady rise, a rapid increase or a sustained period of volatility?

...whats your opinion?

ie. when should i buy into an index fund :

 

[Gundini]

Yes, looks like a bottom, and a lot of evidence to support this, but:

IMO, one more leg down, in the New Year....

Too early to get confident. Either play the trade, or go fishing!

 

[explod]

Many economists who called the current demise some years ago have amde comparisons with the Great Depression and crash of 1929. The great depression went from about 1925 to the late 40s and the stock market crashed over a period of about 4 years from 1929.

The effects of the current financial problems are having wider implications on other businesses which will not hit the bottom line till full reporting starts after the end of the US financial year ending December and our financial year next June.

A full take on this topic would take 100 of pages but there are some good economic threads on ASF if you seek them out that will provide valuable insight.

For me there is a long way to the bottom yet and apart from small holdings in two gold specks (which are not going too good I might add) I am out of the market untill there is clear and sustained evidence that we have hit the bottom.

It is obvious that many have lost a great deal of money, on increasing margin too, by buying in as stocks tumble.

Cheers and take care explod

 

[MichaelD]

Everyone seeks evidence to support their belief about the market, however;

1. The market is going up at present. Blink and you'll miss this news amongst the talk of recessions, doom, gloom, financial meltdown, etc. The mainstream is currently completely ignoring price evidence.

2. No one here seems to believe the bottom has been reached.

3. There is very little talk of this being the bottom in any arena, in distinct contrast to every other bottom call in the last 12 months.

4. Over the last week or so all of a sudden my stops haven't been getting hit. Price action in the last week is noticeably different to the last 12 months.


I personally believe those with money are now quietly accumulating whilst trying very hard to cover their tracks.

 

[Sean K]

I think we've seen the bottom.




Until 3200 is breached.

 

[CAB SAV]

Hope we have seen bottom for this year. Let's see how much the yanks spend over thanksgiving. Lot of retailers will survive but will not make any money because of huge discounting. This could be a problem in a few mths time. Motor giants in US will fail with or without bailout, question of time. Unemployment hasn't peaked, housing prices havn't dropped enough. Company earning downgrades to come/some to disappear. etc.etc.
If we finish around 4000 this time next year i'd be happy. Learn to live/trade with volatility.

 

[Real1ty]

No one knows for sure if we have hit the bottom or not.

I think there have been a few positive signs recently and the markets have been shrugging off very bad news and chugging upwards.
This says to me that in the short term we are going to continue to move upwards, but to where and for how long is anyone guess.

For this reason, i am now back into a few stocks but am ever watchful and the first sign of a a downleg and i'm out.

The TA guys can give you their take on things but i think they also have us going higher short term.

If i had to make a call one way or the other i would say we have hit the bottom, but it would be said with little conviction.