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- 10 June 2007
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ASX:SPX
the bulk of trade on friday consisted of .0105's via chi-x, usually a distribution signal, not immediately applicable one way or the other, meaning, it could simply be a soph or deep pocket taking their % after waiting several weeks/months, was a slow drip into eager retail probably, unlikely a brokers report could tell either way as broker reports can only tell you which broker transacted (which side) but you cannot know if that's for a themselves or (a) client(s)
....going from .0055's to .0105's is a big chunk of change = 190% ish
what makes a SPX a pure guess is the news which ripped price upwards with no prior signal
when looking for a trade + 3 qualifier (as an example) we could ask: what can make the three qualifiers? when is the next news due, how much volume is being traded at the offer versus at the bid, over how many days is this occurring where more transactions are one-sided without price closing higher or lower
if we can see more transactions at the offer without price lifting implies resistance maybe deep pockets using retail strength whereas we can argue that the same game applies where there are more transactions at the mid-point (like friday) without disturbing the price so we'd have to filter that idea thru a lens like the 21day and 13 week money flows, obviously, that only gives a hindsight perspective, we can still infer there is more upside if the weight of distribution cannot push price down despite how stealthy that distribution is...and it's a warning of another spike to come where a genuine get-out trade occurs (money-makers) and suckers in retail (social-mediacs)
the odds are good that that get-out trade is the one you want to avoid being suckered into purchasing unless you have significant proof the product supply kicks all over the competition (companies competitive edge) and even then accept the idea that the price youre being offerred is the price that'll be swamped weeks or months later as the energy dissipates .....the number of companies that have run-away pricing and stay aloft is extremely small
all the touchy feely stuff about young management, nearology, analogue finds, pog,
non of that tells us about the underlying gig being played out in the auction....
if we look at the chart it is important not to confuse that technical print with what-if touchyfeely yet if we refer to the money flows over 'n' we may see consistency on which side of the gig deep pockets are pursuing
what also makes SPX a guess: has in excess of 1BB scrip at auction and needs to get dosh/partner to drill, plenty of headwinds even with further finds
for mine, on balance, the buy-news sell-views looks best option here, got filled at .0105's
the bulk of trade on friday consisted of .0105's via chi-x, usually a distribution signal, not immediately applicable one way or the other, meaning, it could simply be a soph or deep pocket taking their % after waiting several weeks/months, was a slow drip into eager retail probably, unlikely a brokers report could tell either way as broker reports can only tell you which broker transacted (which side) but you cannot know if that's for a themselves or (a) client(s)
....going from .0055's to .0105's is a big chunk of change = 190% ish
what makes a SPX a pure guess is the news which ripped price upwards with no prior signal
when looking for a trade + 3 qualifier (as an example) we could ask: what can make the three qualifiers? when is the next news due, how much volume is being traded at the offer versus at the bid, over how many days is this occurring where more transactions are one-sided without price closing higher or lower
if we can see more transactions at the offer without price lifting implies resistance maybe deep pockets using retail strength whereas we can argue that the same game applies where there are more transactions at the mid-point (like friday) without disturbing the price so we'd have to filter that idea thru a lens like the 21day and 13 week money flows, obviously, that only gives a hindsight perspective, we can still infer there is more upside if the weight of distribution cannot push price down despite how stealthy that distribution is...and it's a warning of another spike to come where a genuine get-out trade occurs (money-makers) and suckers in retail (social-mediacs)
the odds are good that that get-out trade is the one you want to avoid being suckered into purchasing unless you have significant proof the product supply kicks all over the competition (companies competitive edge) and even then accept the idea that the price youre being offerred is the price that'll be swamped weeks or months later as the energy dissipates .....the number of companies that have run-away pricing and stay aloft is extremely small
all the touchy feely stuff about young management, nearology, analogue finds, pog,
non of that tells us about the underlying gig being played out in the auction....
if we look at the chart it is important not to confuse that technical print with what-if touchyfeely yet if we refer to the money flows over 'n' we may see consistency on which side of the gig deep pockets are pursuing
what also makes SPX a guess: has in excess of 1BB scrip at auction and needs to get dosh/partner to drill, plenty of headwinds even with further finds
for mine, on balance, the buy-news sell-views looks best option here, got filled at .0105's
