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The bet: Will these average 12% return including dividends in 1 year?

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Originally Posted by tech/a
1. Realist its my veiw that your portfolio is far to diversified and as such will perform pretty much to the market.
2. But hey thats from someone who "doesnt know how to trade"
Click to expand...

Ahh think again mate...

Tech/a said:
As realist is not here to annoy the bejeezes out of me.

Start $350316
Now $390391

11.4% in the first month.
Click to expand...

That is lovely Tech, but excluding dividends (which I will be counting later of course)..

I am up 18.38% so far...


BHP 27.35 26.63 -2.63%
BSL 6.71 8.08 20.42%
CAQ 0.205 0.24 17.07%
CBA 47 46.91 -0.19%
CBH 0.53 0.8 50.94%
CQT 0.49 0.435 -11.22%
DRT 1.675 1.675 0.00%
EVE 0.1 0.195 95.00%
FBU 8.15 8.9 9.20%
FDL 0.015 0.018 20.00%
FGL 6.46 6.55 1.39%
FUN 1.63 1.385 -15.03%
HCY 0.015 0.021 40.00%
IAG 5.68 5.94 4.58%
JPR 0.082 0.057 -30.49%
MRE 5.31 6.38 20.15%
MTN 0.76 1.39 82.89%
PMH 0.43 0.485 12.79%
PRG 4.43 4.95 11.74%
RIN 14.53 18.45 26.98%
RIO 75.29 77.66 3.15%
USA 0.2 0.365 82.50%
WDC 18.75 19.05 1.60%
WDCNB 18.48 18.51 0.16%
18.38%
 

Realist I am assuming that you have equal postions in each of these shares?

I am not trying to take a dig at you but I am interested to see your reasoning behind investing in so many small caps when you quote Warren Buffet in your signature? A number of them look like speculators to me. Furthermore tech has a point about diversification, buffet certainly doen't subscribe to this methodology.

Cheers
Ryan
 
Oh Sweet,

This should be like watching an Ashes match that goes for 12months

Should be another good learning experience for all.

Cheers Stink
 
TheRage said:
Realist I am assuming that you have equal postions in each of these shares?
Click to expand...

No, but for the purpose of this competition I do...


I'm not a huge Buffet fan actually, and I do not try and copy him, although I admire him and do believe his strategies are excellent. I am a Ben Graham fan, he believed in wide and varied diversification and was not against investing in smaller companies if you got in for a good price. But he too would wince at some of the specs I've bought, then again he'd also be impressed with my results... Graham knows all too well people love to speculate.
 
Tech, ZFX and KZL are dropping like a cheap hookers draws.

Are you still holding them?


Pacmag in trading halt, could be good news!! :
 
With the announcement of Tech's retirement, what is the fate of this competition between Realist and Tech/A?

It was very entertaining while it lasted.

Is Realist now the default winner???


Julia
 
Julia said:
With the announcement of Tech's retirement, what is the fate of this competition between Realist and Tech/A?

It was very entertaining while it lasted.

Is Realist now the default winner???


Julia
Click to expand...
Julia,
Who cares ?
 
It is still going.

I'm up around 25%, not yet including dividends and the free USA options (which is fair to include as the stock dropped 20% yesterday as the free options date came around - My USA profit at current price gives me another 54% profit for USA. You need to include free options, takeovers, dividends and splits etc. of course, and tax and brokerage).

BHP 27.35 25.1 -8.23%
BSL 6.71 8.3 23.70%
CAQ 0.205 0.21 2.44%
CBA 47 49.4 5.11%
CBH 0.53 0.7 32.08%
CQT 0.49 0.63 28.57%
DRT 1.675 1.71 2.09%
EVE 0.1 0.225 125.00%
FBU 8.15 9.4 15.34%
FDL 0.015 0.016 6.67%
FGL 6.46 6.78 4.95%
FUN 1.63 1.67 2.45%
HCY 0.015 0.019 26.67%
IAG 5.68 6.53 14.96%
JPR 0.082 0.041 -50.00%
MRE 5.31 5.69 7.16%
MTN 0.76 1.91 151.32%
PMH 0.43 0.46 6.98%
PRG 4.43 5.08 14.67%
RIN 14.53 17.83 22.71%
RIO 75.29 73.5 -2.38%
USA 0.2 0.465 132.50% (not including 1 for 2 free options at 25c (free 21.5c profit per 2 shares)
WDC 18.75 20.98 11.89%
WDCNB 18.48 20.55 11.20%
TOTAL (ex dividends and options) 24.49%
 
Tech is up 8.6% not including any dividends etc....

Code Buy Current Percentage
ARG 7.39 8.01 8.39%
ASX 34.3 38.4 11.95%
AUN 1.31 1.335 1.91%
BIL 12.8 12.82 0.16%
IGO 4.98 3.9 -21.69%
IVC 5.58 5.42 -2.87%
KZL 5.95 6.6 10.92%
MRE 4.98 5.69 14.26%
QBE 24.59 29.99 21.96%
TRS 7.95 9.73 22.39%
ZFX 13.08 16.64 27.22%
TOTAL 8.60%
 
Hey Realist. Just going through this old post. Whats percentage are you up now? have you added anymore or sold any stocks since.

cheers
 
Realist

Congrats.
But it's not due to great stock picking. You have only kept pace with the market.

Knobby
 
well knobby, to be honest Realist never wanted to outdo the share market, but to keep pace with the up and downs of the market and raking in the dividends.

according to a lawyer Realist will lose: his bet was that he would make 12% including dividends. well it will be almost impossible to make exactly 12%.

but if we look at what he really means in that he will make 12% or more: yes he probably might win the bet.

and if tech accepted the bet, I hope he`s man enough to send him the beer despite his later withdrawal. a bet is a bet is a bet.
 
Yep, i'm looking forward to the despatch of the beverages myself!!!!

In the name of good sportsmanship and honor i do hope that Tech has not retired prematurely. Indeed, nothing would disappoint me greater as i always enjoy reading his posts and particularly this thread.

Ego's aside, i encorage both of you to continue with friendly bantar and the competition.

To me who wins is irrelevant, but it is what we learn from the experience that is important.

Now back to the ring.....................
 
......whether I can hold all of the below until Oct 16th 2007, and make 12% including dividends.......
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It's not finished yet.

Tech has blown 12% PA to the weeds, live on reefcap for ages anyway.
 
I'm back.

Yeah at todays prices (bear in mind we've all been brutally hammered the last 2 days) I made about 42% including dividends from the start of this bet..

My best performer was FDL.
Worst was FUN
 
Tech did very well also - close to 31% overall going by todays figures.

Best performer was the ASX..
 
Gday realist,

just curious, what is your return if you take FDL out of your portfolio?

ie - what % of total gain did it contribute?

thanks and well done
 
prawn_86 said:
Gday realist,

just curious, what is your return if you take FDL out of your portfolio?

ie - what % of total gain did it contribute?

thanks and well done
Click to expand...

About 22%...

The reason you diversify is twofold - you protect yourself from losses by spreading the risk, and you give yourself a chance to hit a windfall by buying more tickets.

To suggest someone with 20 shares "got lucky" when one jackpots is missing the point.

Much like it would be silly to suggest someone who put all of their life savings into one company was unlucky when it goes under.
 
Sorry, i wasnt meaning to imply you got lucky.

I have a buy and hold strategy also, although sometimes my timeframe is only 4 - 6 months.

I was just curious more than anything.

You certainly smashed my return out of the water
 
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