The bet: Will these average 12% return including dividends in 1 year?

[tech/a]

I have investments (companies that make profits and pay dividends), shares I am trading (not charting and not day trading, merely shares I see potential in that may not make profits currently or pay dividends), and I have some Nasdaq shares.

Simple as that.

I diversify widely - hence in your eyes all over the place.

Fine.
Just with everything you have on the go I cant see how you can fund it.
Investments,Trading,Nasdaq,from your posts youd need 500K---anyway doesnt matter.

Why not have most in investements and some trading (gambling).

I never gamble when trading.

It seems to me you do something similar - QBE, ASX, BIL etc. are investments, KZL is a trade.

Infact it seems to me that you've entered boring investments in this comp.

All are part of the mechanical/systematic trading method which has been running for 4 yrs. seeing you wanted to do this for 12 mths and its running already and will be in 12 mths time,and being the main way i invest in the market thats why I chose it---minimum effort. Boring trading is successful trading!

Yet you harp on about charting.. Seems you know better

Im a technical trader I have very little interest in fundamentals. Without entering into the fundamental technical arguement---MY REASONS for trading technically is that finding the truth in Company Valuation is often not only difficult BUT percieved vastly differently by the majority of the market.

Price action or Charting is a reflection of market perception right now.Again on a personal level,I dont like ifs and could be's,price action wll tell me if Im right or wrong--AT THE TIME.

Charting is for me and others like me is necessary to form the basis of a trading methodology which we can measure and if profitable adopt---complete with a blueprint of what to expect from our trading methodology---from here we can with confidence trade even leveraged capital with confidence within those known parameters---if our results ever fall outside these "knowns" then we have a signal to STOP and re evaluate.


While only a part of the Business it is the "Product" so to speak!
Around which you can build a profitable business.

Trading technically or developing a methodology around tech analysis requires a sound knowledge.
There are many ways to deploy and use T/A from Day trading to Weekly systems trades.

 

[Realist]

Im a technical trader I have very little interest in fundamentals.

Well I can not see how from charting you ended up with so many near monopolies like ASX, AUN, BIL, etc. Fundamentally they are the best to choose.

Also your other shares tend to have a low PER or a low forecasted PER.

Quite simply most of your shares are fundamentally very good. I can not see how you chose those from charting alone, yet you include no companies that have with excellent charts such as CBH with no financial fundamentals.

You could have easily chosen your portfolio based on fundamentals alone.

Oh well...

 

[tech/a]

Where as Techtrader would have picked very few of yours.

The two methods of trading are vastly different.---Vastly.

 

[tech/a]

Start portfolio balance $350316
Close of trade week 2 $373248.

So far 6.55% gain in 2 weeks.

 

[nizar]

tech/a,

nice KZL and ZFX those zincers will take you far.
i guess the charts speak for themselves.

 

[Realist]

Start portfolio balance $350316
Close of trade week 2 $373248.

So far 6.55% gain in 2 weeks.

Assuming equal positioning, I make it 3.5% Tech ??

Code Buy Current Percentage
ARG 7.39 7.7 4.19%
ASX 34.3 36.05 5.10%
AUN 1.31 1.205 -8.02%
BIL 12.8 12.68 -0.94%
IGO 4.98 5.01 0.60%
IVC 5.58 5.3 -5.02%
KZL 5.95 7.21 21.18%
MRE 4.98 5.2 4.42%
QBE 24.59 24.42 -0.69%
TRS 7.95 8.4 5.66%
ZFX 13.08 14.65 12.00%
TOTAL 3.50%

 

[nizar]

yet you include no companies that have with excellent charts such as CBH with no financial fundamentals.

A 500m market cap company poised to earn NPAT 100m for FY2007 and a great pipeline of growth seems like pretty good fundamentals to me.

In fact i was buying it before the chart looked excellent.

 

[Realist]

I'm up 1.4%

RIN gave me a nice rise today.

Down heavily on JPR and CQT so far though. Up 27% on CBH.

 

[Realist]

A 500m market cap company poised to earn NPAT 100m for FY2007 and a great pipeline of growth seems like pretty good fundamentals to me.

In fact i was buying it before the chart looked excellent.

Poised to earn....

I own CBH and I agree it is great, I'm nearly up 100% on it, but it has yet to make a profit, that is all I was saying.

 

[Realist]

When or if Zinc prices fall I'll overtake Tech...

 

[tech/a]

Start portfolio balance $350316
Close of trade week 2 $373248.

$350316 x 1.0655 = you do the math.

If the Dow crashes 500 points.
If,could,would,should,shouldnt,hopefully,maybe,possibly.

Got 12 mths to wait anyway!! Anything could happen.

When or if Zinc prices fall I'll overtake Tech...

If they fall to my exit I'll be out and I'll buy something else.

 

[Realist]

Tech, you do the maths, show me what below is wrong?

We agreed equal position sizing.

You're up 3.5% Thanks to starting prices earlier than mine, and zinc basically...

Code Buy Current Percentage
ARG 7.39 7.7 4.19%
ASX 34.3 36.05 5.10%
AUN 1.31 1.205 -8.02%
BIL 12.8 12.68 -0.94%
IGO 4.98 5.01 0.60%
IVC 5.58 5.3 -5.02%
KZL 5.95 7.21 21.18%
MRE 4.98 5.2 4.42%
QBE 24.59 24.42 -0.69%
TRS 7.95 8.4 5.66%
ZFX 13.08 14.65 12.00%
TOTAL 3.50%

 

[Sean K]

Is this still 'in good spirits'? LOL

You two doing this for a whole year will end in WWV.

:shoot: :bigun2:

 

[tech/a]

Whatever.

You keep score for me to Realist.
I have no interest.

Its like dealing with a
child. Its not fair he's started before I did.
Hes got all the best stocks.He trades to maximise profit.
Hes beating me.

All the best with your trading.

Game over for me,it will either be ego massaging if he out performs or its just not fair if he doesnt.

 

[clowboy]

LMAO

 

[Realist]

You keep score for me to Realist.

I did, and the results are there for all to see and they differ widely from your stories!!

Its not fair he's started before I did.

Why not use the same start date as me? What is so difficult about that? Why start earlier when the ASX (and your stocks) were lower?

Hes got all the best stocks.He trades to maximise profit.
Hes beating me.

Nope, you're stocks are no better than mine, you just got a good ride on Zinc which half happened before this comp started. Same with MRE - we both hold it yet your buy price in this comp is lower than mine which is not fair obviously.

On Monday RIN will rise 27%, you'll probably find I am equal with you overall if we used the same start dates.

Game over for me,

How convenient...

 

[barney]

Hey Realist and Tech, you need not take anything I say seriously (but you can if you like) If the competition is to be totally fair and "judgeable" by your peers/admirers (yeah OK I think your'e both smart ... what can I say!!) , Shouldn't you both a) set a start date ......... b) Paper trade your selections for the period in question ( and post results) so that a "true judgement" can be considered over the time in question .............. Using "positions" already in play is like starting a race while the other guy is in the dunny... so to speak (whichever guy that may be ) ...... Hope that makes sense ....It does to me, but I've been subject to loud music for much of my life ................... For the comp to work, it must start from a clean slate!!!!

PS I STILL want to hold the carton (less tax) ........ Have I made that clear yet!!! Good onya both, Barney. (even Barney has some good ideas at times..... sometimes I impress myself ............mmm .......... gotta cook tea for my wife ........... she is not happy with the time I spend on the computer

PPS Lets Assume $100,000 starting bank each, and see who finishes best in the period of time agreed on ....... ???? Hows that sound?

Now if you two lads had taken my advice above, (start with a clean slate ... same amount of capital ..... same start date .... and paper trade the results for a "fair dinkum" result) none of this "unhappiness" would have occurred, and we on the sidelines would have gotten our moneys worth I feel like I've paid to see a footy match and the ref decided to go home early!! .... Come on ...one more try for all us punters watching Barney.

 

[Realist]

I agree Barney! I am keen.

We can just see how our shares go anyway.

 

[2020hindsight]

1. Realist its my veiw that your portfolio is far to diversified and as such will perform pretty much to the market.
2. But hey thats from someone who "doesnt know how to trade"

:iagree:
especially on point 2

 

[tech/a]

As realist is not here to annoy the bejeezes out of me.

Start $350316
Now $390391

11.4% in the first month.