Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

"The best place to be is in commodities"

IEA SAYS OIL PRICES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL 2020
11 FEB 2015

The International Energy Agency predicts that American energy will remain in the game for at least another five years and as a result oil prices will remain below their traditional level over the period, Alex Lawler of Reuters reports. “ 'The United States will remain the world's top source of oil supply growth up to 2020, even after the recent collapse in prices, the International Energy Agency said, defying expectations of a more dramatic slowdown in shale growth...The agency also said in its Medium Term Oil Market report that oil prices, which slid from $115 a barrel in June to a near six-year low close to $45 in January, would likely stabilize at levels substantially below the highs of the last three years. Oil prices deepened their decline after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in November shifted strategy and declined to cut its own output, choosing to retain market share that has been eroded by rival supply sources such as US shale oil. But IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, launching the report in London, said while OPEC may win back some customers while prices are low, it would not regain the market share it held before the 2008 financial crisis. 'This unusual response to lower prices is just one more example of how shale oil has changed the market,' she said in a statement. 'OPEC's move to let the market rebalance itself is a reflection of that fact.' " The good news maybe long-term, then.
 
That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
Mar 8, 2015

By Our Man in Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia. Your mining market seems to have taken a bit of a battering last week.

Oz. It looks like that, but most of the serious damage was confined to a handful of stocks with sharp falls by BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals dragging the ASX mining index down by four per cent, while two of the leading gold stocks, Newcrest (NCM) and Regis (RRL), were mainly to blame for a seven per cent fall in the gold index.

Two factors spooked investors in mining and gold stocks: a reduced growth target in China which will limit demand for steel-making materials such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, followed by the latest slide in the price of gold, which dropped even further after we closed on Friday.

Minews. Whatever the cause – and don’t forget the strengthening U.S. dollar – those are big index falls which must have rattled investor confidence.

Oz. They are, but another factor which caused a re-think about the overall market was the re-balancing of the ASX top 200 index which saw three once-prominent iron ore miners kicked off.

Atlas (AGO), BC Iron (BCI) and Mt Gibson (MGX) have all suffered heavy losses as a result of the sharp fall in the iron ore price, and will be feeling even more pain today as a result of the latest drop in the price to less than US$60 a tonne.

Minews. Iron ore seems to be resuming its traditional position as product only suitable for large-scale miners.

Oz. Precisely, and it would not be a surprise if we see more mine closures over the next six-to-12 months.
...



Source >> www.minesite.com
 
Unprecedented Sugar Glut Expanding as World Output Soars

by Marvin Perez, Luzi Ann Javier, Gerson Freitas Jr
March 17, 2015

The world has never been so awash in sugar.
Just as cane harvests expand in India and Thailand, farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, are ramping up exports to take advantage of a tumble in the exchange rate that has swelled their profit margins. And crops that were hurt by drought last year have been revived by rain. Global output is set to exceed demand for a fifth straight year, leaving the biggest stockpiles on record, the International Sugar Organization said.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ed-sugar-glut-expanding-as-world-output-soars
 
Anadarko Petroleum to make decision on investment [Natural gas] in Mozambique.
April 16, 2015

US group Anadarko Petroleum (APC is listed at NYSE) will soon sign the sales contract allowing it to advance in the natural gas exploration project in northern Mozambique, said Wednesday in Maputo John Peffer, director of the group in Mozambique.

Peffer said that if the sales contracts are signed “in the coming months” and the government permits come in time the group can make a decision and “production can begin in 2019,” according to financial news agency Bloomberg.

The Area 1 block, in which the US group is the operator, has natural gas reserves estimated at 75 trillion cubic feet, enough to make Mozambique the world’s third largest supplier of natural gas, after the Qatar and Australia.

A final investment decision depends on the conversion of non-binding agreements into binding ones that the Anadarko Petroleum group has closed to export 8 million tons of natural gas per year to customers in Japan, China, Thailand and Singapore. (macauhub/MZ)
 
A la contraire my dear Watson

[video]http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/16/cramer-why-copper-gold-are-ready-to-shine.html[/video]
 
Financial Times: Shares in Noble Group plummeted to a six-year low on Friday(July 31) as short-selling funds stepped up their assault on the commodities trader, which has seen almost a third of its value wiped out this week.
 
BARRON'S COVER

Time to Buy Commodities
Sentiment on energy and gold -- and oil and metals stocks -- may be nearing capitulation. Now is a good time to lean against the wind and start to buy.

By ANDREW BARY
Aug. 8, 2015 1:52 a.m. ET

It’s time to consider commodities. While the Standard & Poor’s 500, Nasdaq Composite, and other key equity indexes are near record levels, commodity stocks, including energy shares, are way below their peaks. Commodities are probably the most out-of-favor industry group in the stock market.








http://online.barrons.com/articles/time-to-buy-commodities-1439013162
 
Oil price slides to lowest level since 2009 amid demand worries, higher OPEC production

Alex Veiga,
The Associated Press, August 11, 2015.

The price of U.S. crude oil has tumbled to its lowest level in more than six years.

Benchmark U.S. crude fell $1.88, or 4 per cent, to settle at $43.08 a barrel in New York on Tuesday, its lowest close since March of 2009.

The latest slide came as OPEC said its production rose to a three-year high. China also devalued its currency, suggesting economic growth there was softer and could cause lower crude demand.

U.S. crude has been declining since reaching a high this year of $61.43 on June 10.

Crude is under pressure on several fronts. Big increases in production in the U.S. and Canada, along with sizable gains in Iraq and elsewhere, have helped increase supplies. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations kept pumping crude at high levels and Iranian oil could soon return to the market after being kept off by sanctions.

Meanwhile, worldwide demand is not as strong as expected because China's growth has cooled and other economies have become more energy efficient.

While drivers, shippers and airlines are enjoying the lower fuel prices spurred by crude's slump, the oil industry is responding to lower profits with sharp cuts in spending and employment.

In other futures energy trading, Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many U.S. refineries, declined $1.23, or 2.4 per cent, to $49.18 a barrel in London. Wholesale gasoline closed unchanged at $1.694 a gallon, while heating oil fell 2.9 cents to close at $1.563 a gallon. Natural gas rose 0.2 cents to close at $2.844 per 1,000 cubic feet.
 
>>> Annual Stock Market Returns

ON OCTOBER 8, 2015

BY MICHAEL BATNICK

After a strong year for stocks, does it make sense for investors to dampen their expectations? That’s what many investors, professional or otherwise, were saying heading into 2014, following a year when stocks made new all-time highs and gained ~30 percent.
...



https://theirrelevantinvestor.wordpress.com/2015/10/08/annual-stock-market-returns/
 
BHP CEO Says Commodities May Have Bottomed, Australian Reports
by Garfield Clinton Reynolds (Bloomberg)

April 9, 2016

BHP Billiton Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie expressed optimism that the slump in commodity prices may be close to bottoming out, in an interview published Saturday by the Australian newspaper.

Any turnaround in raw materials prices would be gradual, and bumpy, with supply expanding faster than demand, MacKenzie told the newspaper. He also said BHP’s moves to reduce costs and improve productivity left it well placed for a rebound or a renewed slump.

“We’re not looking at the screens and things continue to go down, down and down. And yet we are able to look at our numbers to see costs going down, down, down,’’ Mackenzie was quoted as saying. “If you look at the basket of commodities that we deal with, the numbers are self-evident: the fall has stopped.”

BHP cut its dividend for the first time in 15 years in February as the collapse in commodity prices spurred a 92 percent tumble in first-half profit for the world’s biggest mining company.
 
BHP CEO Says Commodities May Have Bottomed, Australian Reports
by Garfield Clinton Reynolds (Bloomberg)

April 9, 2016

BHP Billiton Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie expressed optimism that the slump in commodity prices may be close to bottoming out, in an interview published Saturday by the Australian newspaper.

Any turnaround in raw materials prices would be gradual, and bumpy, with supply expanding faster than demand, MacKenzie told the newspaper. He also said BHP’s moves to reduce costs and improve productivity left it well placed for a rebound or a renewed slump.

“We’re not looking at the screens and things continue to go down, down and down. And yet we are able to look at our numbers to see costs going down, down, down,’’ Mackenzie was quoted as saying. “If you look at the basket of commodities that we deal with, the numbers are self-evident: the fall has stopped.”

BHP cut its dividend for the first time in 15 years in February as the collapse in commodity prices spurred a 92 percent tumble in first-half profit for the world’s biggest mining company.

I don't even know why what he says matters. Commodities have been on a rally in last few weeks, closing your eyes and clicking buy on commodities in last few weeks would have made you a tonne of money... he is a bit late to the picture.
 
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