Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TFE - Territory Iron

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imajica said:
another member on HC crunched the numbers and came up with this:


135 million Shares
60 million shares (recent capital raised to Crawley)
Total = 195 million shares
Market Cap = 195M x 0.49c
= $95.55 Million

2007 Production Target is 1.5 Mtpa
Iron Ore Price = $69/tonne USD
Revenue = 1500000 x 69
= $103.5 Million USD
= $131.85 Million AUD

No more capex, the last capital raised is enough to fund the company right into Production.

I cant find the estimated operating cost for TFE but lets be very conservative and say its half the revenue.

Thats $66 Million EBITDA
NPAT should be around $46.2 Million
(thats nearly half the market cap!)

1) MOU in place with China
2) Production in March
3) Exporting in August
4) Cash flow report out in October

Some people are probably nervous about buying after the recent rise in share price. But looking at the stock fundalmentals, this stock should hit $1 by October.

DYOR!
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Hi, Not being able to find the operating costs does seem to throw a spanner into the works of the crunched numbers. Cost of development of a mine and purchase of rolling stock, may well exceed all the profits in the first year. Royalties have to be paid to Arafura Resources of $1.30 Lump and $1.00 Fines, per tonne.
It also depends on the results of increasing the inferred resource that is not all that much as yet.
 
I'm now out of TFE as I continue to reduce my holdings in favour of cash. Company looks good, hope you all make a fortune. Good Luck
 
One thing that concerns me about this one is unseasonal or excessive rainfall.I note that OMH ,mining closer to Tennant Creek had production slowed due to unusually heavy rain in December.I see that there has been very heavy rainfall around Katherine lately.
Only a thought,I do not know enough about the site of their mine....else it looks OK.
My concerns are probably unfounded
 
Territory Iron finalises agreement with NLC and Traditional Owners

Territory Iron finalises agreement with NLC and Traditional Owners
Northern Territory iron ore company Territory Iron (ASX:TFE) has struck an agreement with the traditional owners of the area covering the company’s Frances Creek operations in the Northern Territory. The Parties have agreed between them in relation to the grant of mining interests and development of the Frances Creek iron ore project.
The iron ore project comprises 13 tenements and is located approximately 28 km north of the regional town of Pine Creek on the Stuart Highway, 190 km south of Darwin.
The Northern Land Council assisted with the structure of the agreement whereby the traditional owners will receive a royalty and Territory Iron will assist with training and mentoring indigenous men and women who may seek employment at the operations.
The agreement relates to the grant of mining interests including mineral leases 24727, 25087, 25088, 25152 and 25396 and development of the Frances Creek mine. (See map).
The tenements cover an area of 430 hectares over a strike length of 13 km and include areas where Territory Iron expects to mine in the next four years and beyond.

Territory Iron Managing Director Doug Stewart said the agreement with the Northern Land Council and the traditional owners was a positive outcome that would benefit both the Frances Creek project and Territorians as a whole.
“This agreement is a key milestone in the granting of mineral leases and allows us to accelerate activity at the project and to move closer to mining.
“It is anticipated that mining will commence this May and shipping of iron ore to China will take place in August this year,” he said.
Mr. Stewart said he looked forward to building the company’s relationship with the traditional owners and other indigenous people in the surrounding region.

About Territory Iron
Perth-based Territory Iron secured the Frances Creek iron ore project in the Northern Territory in March 2005.
The recently constructed Alice Springs to Darwin Railway passes through Pine Creek and at its closest point is 15km south west of the project area.
The mine’s reserves recently increased to 4.81 million tonnes, with total resources at Frances Creek now 9.73 million tonnes at 60.7 % Fe. The company has a memorandum of understanding with two Chinese steel mills, with one mill to purchase up to 800,000 tonnes and a second to purchase 400,000 tonnes.
Territory Iron also signed an agreement with FreightLink to provide transportation services to carry iron ore to the port of Darwin.
Plans for camp construction at Pine Creek are also progressing well and the pad for the stockpile area at the Darwin port (East Arm Wharf) has been completed and construction of Territory Iron’s conveyors has begun.
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at 4.20pm a special block cross trade(spxt) went through for 18,550,000 shares thats over 9 million bucks worth of shares - any ideas guys? whats going on?

is it instos buying up a large stake?
 
imajica said:
at 4.20pm a special block cross trade(spxt) went through for 18,550,000 shares thats over 9 million bucks worth of shares - any ideas guys? whats going on?

is it instos buying up a large stake?
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Hi, This is thought to be a sale of shares by OM Holdings, a diversified minerals company with Manganese interests and had by law to be put through the ASX. The guess is that Crawley Resources MAY have picked up the stock.
 
new substantial share holder notice

can't open it up at the moment for some reason

could someone have a go at viewing it

thanks
 
Westoz investment Company purchases 10 million TFE shares - nice vote of confidence from the instos!!!!!!!! :) :) :)
 
noirua said:
Hi, Not being able to find the operating costs does seem to throw a spanner into the works of the crunched numbers. Cost of development of a mine and purchase of rolling stock, may well exceed all the profits in the first year. Royalties have to be paid to Arafura Resources of $1.30 Lump and $1.00 Fines, per tonne.
It also depends on the results of increasing the inferred resource that is not all that much as yet.
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Noirua, I was the one that published those numbers on HC.

1. Read the announcement carefully next time. The recent $30 Million capital raising was enough to fully fund them into production and accelerate exploration.

2. Why would Mr Kiernan spend $30million to buy TFE shares at a 35% premium if the operating cost was going to exceed all profits? I have not seen many cap-raising that involved a company paying a 35% premium. Most of the time it has been the average shares value over a month or less. From the things ive read on TFE, nothing indicates that they will have a huge operating cost. You find their capex into production was fairly low due to the existing infrastructure implace from previous miners.

3. Well some of the iron come from Arafura tenements, so its only right to pay some royalties to Arafura. But a royalty of $1-$1.3 per tone is very little compared to the price of Iron - $65USD/tonne. Price of iron has risen this year, surely enough to cover the royalties.

4. TFE resource is definitely a problem. Management have plans to spend money on exploration every year to help increase resources/reserves. TFE have a 40km line of strike in Frances Creek, with most parts of the Frances Creek Tenements unexplored. *Check the maps* There is much potential for TFE to increase resources/reserves. I'd rather they get into production now then do a another capital raising to increase additional resources. If TFE had the resources, its market cap would have been much greater then $95 million dollars. This has left TFE under the radar until recently.

I'm surprised you sold out on TFE who is so close to production and have been releasing postive news for the last several months. I guess some people are just impatient and prefer to go for the more risky stocks with the potential of becoming a multibagger within a week (refering to UXA).
I'm still new to the stock market. TFE will be my first multi-bagger by May.
 
a bit of profit taking this morning was to be expected as daytraders exited their positions - buy side building this afternoon - we could be in for a late run - with an agressive drilling program in place for 2007 and experienced management in place TFE has the fundamentals to perform well
 
back to yesterdays close price - a number of buyers just took out a quarter of a million at 62 cents - we could be in for an arvo run
 
Seems to have been significantly rerated the past 4 months. Overbought on stochastics, but that's not necessarily going to stop it atm. Not much else to tell....
 

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kennas said:
Seems to have been significantly rerated the past 4 months. Overbought on stochastics, but that's not necessarily going to stop it atm. Not much else to tell....
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I expect a little retrace before it heads back up. Fundalments are intact. Refer to my earlier post. Someones pasted the numbers i crunched up a while back.

If you dont trust my FA, let me give you an example.

MtGibson had a 1 Mtpa operation in 2006, last half year report states they made a net profit after tax of $53.4 Million for 2006.

TFE production rate is at 1 Mtpa in the first year.
TFE market cap is 128.7 Million @ 66c.

Compare the net profit after tax with the TFE market cap. Thats quite a lot of profit. I dont pick stocks based on charts. $$$ is everything.

With production on track, exploration underway to increase resources and plans to further increase production rate this stock will definitely reach $1 sometime this year. You just have to be patient. I brought in at 35c and dont intend to sell with all the upside no matter how the charts read.

DYOR.
 
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