Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Discussion

[Assasin]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

This is brilliant! Thanks Tech/a.

 

[debtfree]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

Tech/Pav

This is very generous of you both and you are right, there is people out here interested in this trading method.

Please register my interest in joining you.

Also, thank you so much for your thousands of previous post which has helped me along my journey without you knowing. As I said before, very generous indeed.

Cheers ... Debtfree

 

[Chris.M]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

Definitely interested tech/a, thanks.

 

[5oclock]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

I would just like to ask those that already know everything there is to know about trading to ignore this thread and let the rest of us who dont know everything listen in peace to what TECH and PAV have to say. Thanks in advance for your thoughtfulness.

 

[Buckfont]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

I would just like to ask those that already know everything there is to know about trading to ignore this thread and let the rest of us who dont know everything listen in peace to what TECH and PAV have to say. Thanks in advance for your thoughtfulness.

I have to agree. I have zero knowledge about technical analysis and it goes well over my head,but having been on this forum for several years now and having seen the effort that tech/a goes to to put in his wealth of understanding across, I have nothing but great admiration for his persistence despite all the knockers. Good on you tech/a.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

Have any of you noobs heard about a little website called Amazon?

There's about 17 million books on trading chart patterns. They're all pretty much the same idea: 1) Find pattern, 2) buy the break, 3) set a stop, 4) let winners run and watch for reversal pattern.

Tech's trick is to rubbish what "the books" say, then re-package it as something special and new.

You're welcome.

 

[tinhat]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

I'm looking forward to this because:

1. I was thinking about tech/a whilst lying in bed unable to sleep the other night. Actually, I was re-reading Nick Radge's "Unholy Grails" in bed and reading about tech/a.

2. I'm very interested to learn about tech/a and pav's continuation pattern identification because, having started with a fundamental/value investing approach I've found it difficult to hop onto stocks which seem "fully priced" only to have missed out on them rising substantially more through the cycle. Examples are DMP, IVC, NVT, MTU, RHC - oh, it's a long list. Conversely, I have had a knack of picking stocks which are at "deep discount to value" and well, you can imagine some of the disappointments.

I took note of Pav's comment the other day in the TPM thread. In the past I wouldn't look at TPM as a potential trade because, although it is an investment grade company with sound balance sheet and business prospects, it is "over-priced". Rereading Radge's book the other night highlighted to me that I want to be riding stocks that are going up, not going down!

 

[CanOz]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

The worst thing about books is they don't answer questions....

CanOz

 

[WilkensOne]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

The worst thing about books is they don't answer questions....

CanOz

Or make any money in the markets would be my assumption...

 

[prawn_86]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

Have any of you noobs heard about a little website called Amazon?

There's about 17 million books on trading chart patterns. They're all pretty much the same idea: 1) Find pattern, 2) buy the break, 3) set a stop, 4) let winners run and watch for reversal pattern.

Tech's trick is to rubbish what "the books" say, then re-package it as something special and new.

You're welcome.

And you are welcome to provide your stats/trades in real time and see if they are profitable, oh wait, didnt you try and do that already...

The theory of just about anything is fairly easy, the practice/application is a whol other ball game.

Once the trades are being posted feel free to pick them to pieces, but until then, without seeing any results, i dont see how you can say it wont work

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

And you are welcome to provide your stats/trades in real time and see if they are profitable, oh wait, didnt you try and do that already...

The theory of just about anything is fairly easy, the practice/application is a whol other ball game.

Once the trades are being posted feel free to pick them to pieces, but until then, without seeing any results, i dont see how you can say it wont work

There's a lot of pressure posting your trades live. What tends to happen is that you make a few good trades, and everyone starts reading and watching very closely. Then you make a few bad ones and guys like tech and TH and waza jump all over it and trash the **** out of your thread. This makes the pressure even higher, gets you angry, and then with a negative frame of mind, your focus and perception goes way off.

Trader Girl was exemplary in her handling of the trash-talkers like tech. She profited in her live trades despite all the crap she was handed by all those who "knew better".

The ASIC excuse is just nonsense. Anyone can post live trades, so long as they don't advise others what to do.

I can post all my good trades from last year if anyone is interested. It won't help anyone one bit.

 

[Country Lad]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

...........Examples are DMP, IVC, NVT, MTU, RHC - oh, it's a long list. ...............In the past I wouldn't look at TPM as a potential trade because, although it is an investment grade company with sound balance sheet and business prospects, it is "over-priced".

What all these have in common is that they are at all time highs. This is of no interest to the inexperienced trader because of their mindset that when it is that high, the price will drop. The opposite is likely the case. Too many people look only for a price that is falling on the hope it will come back up.

I love those shares at an all time high and in fact this is one of my explorations. When a share is at an all time high every single person holding it is in profit so there is no selling pressure. We may see some profit taking but no selling pressure until it falls out of favour and that can be seen in the market sentiment.

tech's trade in MTU is an example. It has been at or near all time highs and rising for the last 5 months and that is why I am also enjoying the MTU trade but in a different way which is shown here .

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[prawn_86]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

I love those shares at an all time high and in fact this is one of my explorations. When a share is at an all time high every single person holding them is in profit so there is no selling pressure. We may see some profit taking but no selling pressure until it falls out of favour and that can be seen in the market sentiment.

I cannot remember the name, back back pre 2008 there was a fund that specifically only traded in stocks that were making all time highs. At the time its performance was quite good. One would assume that this strategy would have a huge draw down when the bear market kicked in, if no stops were employed

 

[kid hustlr]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

Obviously this is a great idea for a thread and should be welcomed by all.

Can't understand GB's reaction at all.

Play on I say

 

[Country Lad]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

I cannot remember the name, back back pre 2008 there was a fund that specifically only traded in stocks that were making all time highs. At the time its performance was quite good. One would assume that this strategy would have a huge draw down when the bear market kicked in, if no stops were employed

I doubt that any successful, experienced trader/investor, particularly a fund, would not employ stops.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[tech/a]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

I have to agree. I have zero knowledge about technical analysis and it goes well over my head,but having been on this forum for several years now and having seen the effort that tech/a goes to to put in his wealth of understanding across, I have nothing but great admiration for his persistence despite all the knockers. Good on you tech/a.

It is for people like yourself that I post about T/A.
For me and those who adopt it it is a very visual form of analysis of crowd behaviour.There are times to be with the crowd and times when not to be.
Technical analysis is portrayed by many as complex---in fact some do this purposely to make their method seem special or difficult to understand--continually coming up with the latest signal---etc.

ALL analysis is simple it will do only one of 3 things.
Succeed
Fail
Nothing.

Its what you do with your trade or portfolio and how quickly you react---or need to react--to the potential consequences of analysis which will go a long way to determining profitability.

Have any of you noobs heard about a little website called Amazon?

There's about 17 million books on trading chart patterns. They're all pretty much the same idea: 1) Find pattern, 2) buy the break, 3) set a stop, 4) let winners run and watch for reversal pattern.

This is true.
but very few can actually put the idea into a trading methodology--let alone a profitable one. we can all read and nod our heads at the perfect sense it makes and the un deniable logic---until we trade it. Many find that walking forward with methods to a profitable outcome often elludes them.

Tech's trick is to rubbish what "the books" say, then re-package it as something special and new.

I didnt know I had a trick. But I can see how you think that the questioning of the methodology of many who post up methods can be seen as an attack. In fact it is questioning based upon 20 yrs of trading and the knowledge that OFTEN the basic premise adopted is simply flawed. It takes then time for that to come to fruition
2 yrs in Ducs well documented case. I enjoyed Trader Girls Posts and was supportive I thought.---It was simple I actually use the principal myself (After being introduced by T/G) when trading the FTSE or DAX if it pops up.

We all have losing runs myself included---but its the ability to minimise drawdown/exposure/and TIME which I dont see offered up in Most books and seminars.

And you are welcome to provide your stats/trades in real time and see if they are profitable, oh wait, didnt you try and do that already...

The theory of just about anything is fairly easy, the practice/application is a whol other ball game.

Once the trades are being posted feel free to pick them to pieces, but until then, without seeing any results, i dont see how you can say it wont work

Without doubt!

 

[waza1960]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

tech and TH and waza jump all over it and trash the **** out of your thread

Honoured to be in such illustrious company
However I always try to be constructive and don't wish to contribute negatively
(I'll have to re read GBs thread now)

 

[pavilion103]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

There's a lot of pressure posting your trades live. What tends to happen is that you make a few good trades, and everyone starts reading and watching very closely. Then you make a few bad ones and guys like tech and TH and waza jump all over it and trash the **** out of your thread. This makes the pressure even higher, gets you angry, and then with a negative frame of mind, your focus and perception goes way off.
Trader Girl was exemplary in her handling of the trash-talkers like tech. She profited in her live trades despite all the crap she was handed by all those who "knew better".

The ASIC excuse is just nonsense. Anyone can post live trades, so long as they don't advise others what to do.

I can post all my good trades from last year if anyone is interested. It won't help anyone one bit.

Sounds like you could do with a little more work on your trading psychology....

 

[skyQuake]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

What all these have in common is that they are at all time highs. This is of no interest to the inexperienced trader because of their mindset that when it is that high, the price will drop. The opposite is likely the case. Too many people look only for a price that is falling on the hope it will come back up.

I love those shares at an all time high and in fact this is one of my explorations. When a share is at an all time high every single person holding it is in profit so there is no selling pressure. We may see some profit taking but no selling pressure until it falls out of favour and that can be seen in the market sentiment.


Cheers
Country Lad

Just a brief derail...

But this is so key. Ask the average punter how he trades and 90% of his repertoire are reversal or breakouts. (If any)
Few look for continuation signals. Just the regular oh wow this is down 60% where should I buy!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

...but very few can actually put the idea into a trading methodology--let alone a profitable one. we can all read and nod our heads at the perfect sense it makes and the un deniable logic---until we trade it. Many find that walking forward with methods to a profitable outcome often elludes them.

Yes, and the same will hold true here on this thread. People will read what you say, go to apply it and fail. This is because you won't address the missing element, which is psychology. To you, "psychology" is a dirty word, but you don't realize this is how and why you have succeeded. It's not about "trade management" or "position sizing" nearly so much as you think.

Pavillion is a very unique case. His success has only come because you have held his hand every step of the way on every single trade he's ever made. He's also a guy who accepts things at face value without questioning, so long as the message is delivered with authority (which you provide). Many find it hard to have that blind faith in something that amounts to basically nothing much - ie. 'buy the pattern, watch for reversal'. It's evident on the religion thread how his mind works. If you were to say "well his faith has served him well", I'd have to agree, since he's up 50%. But this is my point - it all comes back to psychology.