Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Discussion

[pavilion103]

Weekly spreadsheets to be updated on here every Monday night. I'm always trading then so easiest time for me.

 

[qldfrog]

today's feedback from your exercise will be interesting,
my stop losses were shouting all day and I got rid of 80% of my stocks as a result, not that happy especially if we have a rebund tomorrow

 

[skyQuake]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

Tonight's Prospects


View attachment 53743

How do you manage no.18 with such a wide stop? Risk reward doesnt look that good

 

[qldfrog]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

How do you manage no.18 with such a wide stop? Risk reward doesnt look that good

same question, I am following 18 as well -> got in on the 6/08 and was out on the 7th seconds after raising my stop intraday, 10% profit to see it shot up again yesterday.
Reluctant to plunge again if starting from 0, but basically putting my previous win in the balance I reduce my risk overall (one way of seeing things).
Not that the company inspire much confidence!
I am surprised that you did not have more stops activated on the 7th, they were triggered all day for my portfolio and most of them quiteabove from the overall loss of the day so ..
time will tell as we get to know more of each of these.
have a nice day trading

 

[tech/a]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

How do you manage no.18 with such a wide stop? Risk reward doesnt look that good

The initial stop is for calculating position sizing only.
The ONLY reward to Risk ratio I'm interested in
Is the one that my portfolio is recording as trades
Close out.
Currently many trades have been stopped or closed
My initial risk was on most 1%.
You'll note the portfolios risk / trade is close to half that.
Had I not moved stops pretty well ALL trades would have taken
Out the wider initial position size stop.

As I get some winning trades the importance of keeping losers small
Will become clearer.
The number and duration of winning trades to recoup drawdown will
Be far less.

 

[skc]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

Not that the company inspire much confidence!

How do you know what company it is

 

[tech/a]

18 Stop to B/E.

 

[qldfrog]

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

How do you know what company it is

just because I was following that one closely independently and I had been in and out the two previous days with a 2k parcel, the chart was really telling.
I do not try to find the matching codes...

 

[tinhat]

Hi Tech/a. Where did you place your stop loss on entering trade 27? A brief explanation would be good.

PS: I would place it at the low of four days ago, so interested to hear if you chose something tighter and why.

 

[tech/a]

Hi Tech/a. Where did you place your stop loss on entering trade 27? A brief explanation would be good.

PS: I would place it at the low of four days ago, so interested to hear if you chose something tighter and why.

#27 is a trade setup.
In fact today it has come off heavily.
So currently no trade and no stop.

I can see the "Late entry" being ambiguous
I meant late entry of a future prospect.

 

[pavilion103]

I will be onto that spreadsheet today or tomorrow.

I'm currently sitting in the recovery room after minor knee surgery. The week off will give me time to get around to a few things.

 

[tinhat]

#27 is a trade setup.
In fact today it has come off heavily.
So currently no trade and no stop.

I can see the "Late entry" being ambiguous
I meant late entry of a future prospect.

Thanks tech/a. I went back and read the thread in its entirety and came to that understanding. I've not been active in the market for a few weeks so had to catch up on your posts and your method of marking up your charts for this exercise.

I recognised #27 because I bought it just recently. It's recovered somewhat this arvo but looking at the price/volume action of the last few days the price isn't moving up much compared to the amount volume (not much return for effort). It needs to jump up over that long red tick (the most recent high).

These charts you are putting up are great. I am sure I will keep referring to this thread over many times in the future. A chart tells a thousand words the way you show your set ups, entries and trailing stop losses.

Unless I have a lifestyle change I don't think I will ever trade in the manner that you do over the long run but understanding momentum and price/volume action and breakout identification is something I believe will help any investor time entries and identify opportunities and manage risk.

cheers.

 

[pavilion103]

Tech, we changed it from $50,000 margin to $100,000 flat.

Does this mean that when you say 1% it is now $1,000 risk
Or are we going to make these 0.5% risk of $500 (i.e. 1% on $50,000)

I'll need to make the adjustments.

 

[skc]

Chart 4 trade PMC was stopped out on ex-div date so the 5c dividend should be included in your spreadsheet.

The stop probably should have been given more leeway allowing for that the expected dividend drop-off.

Plenty of ex-div coming up over the next month so something to keep in mind for other setups as well.

 

[tech/a]

Tech, we changed it from $50,000 margin to $100,000 flat.

Does this mean that when you say 1% it is now $1,000 risk
Or are we going to make these 0.5% risk of $500 (i.e. 1% on $50,000)

I'll need to make the adjustments.

No I want to leave it as if we were trading margin.
but to do so we are going to supply our own margin.
IB will once again return to margin once the paper work is sorted.

Also check your email.


SKC

If PMC was stopped then it shouldn't be in there.
I don't have the charts here at work but will check tonight.
When was div day?

 

[skc]

SKC

If PMC was stopped then it shouldn't be in there.
I don't have the charts here at work but will check tonight.
When was div day?

Ex-div 5c on 16 Aug which is the day your stop was triggered. So you'd pocket the dividend.

 

[tech/a]

Ex-div 5c on 16 Aug which is the day your stop was triggered. So you'd pocket the dividend.

Yes thanks SKC
Position closed but Div. received.
So there is an alteration there PAV.

 

[skc]

2) Number 22 (if I've done this correctly) has been left in the spreadsheet, but Tech I think this will have to be removed. It takes up a whopping $77,000 of our $100,000 capital, so I'm guessing this one is the one to be taken out?

Tech/a what's the resolution on this?

VRL's reporting tomorrow (or Friday) and it seems prudent not to carry such a large position into a potentially volatile event. VRL is pretty thin so with 3300 shares a stock triggered could easily get filled at 15c lower.

 

[tech/a]

SKC

Its something I've never considered in my trading
Perhaps something I should!

As we will be able to determine a stop price tonight then
rather than take the risk of a stop being taken out with slippage
we will close on close tonight or at B/E and re evaluate after reporting.
If it was deep in the money I wouldn't worry so much.

Where can I get a reporting schedule?

 

[skc]

SKC

Its something I've never considered in my trading
Perhaps something I should!

As we will be able to determine a stop price tonight then
rather than take the risk of a stop being taken out with slippage
we will close on close tonight or at B/E and re evaluate after reporting.
If it was deep in the money I wouldn't worry so much.

Where can I get a reporting schedule?

If the position wasn't so big AND the stock so illquid, I'd have no problem holding it into the report. This reporting season has seen a few funny price action after the report... E.g. BLD today down 5% then up 4%. It's hard not to get whipped when that happens. HIL yesterday was another one.

There's a few calendars in the thread below. You might want to find an ex-div calendar as well...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27167&p=786001#post786001