Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Discussion

skc · 23 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

tech/a said:
Nothing like a drawdown to kick things off.

Lol. That seems to be a universal truth for any trade journal!

Plenty of good bottoming patterns and it won't take long before you catch a good ride on one of those.

Pav, thanks for putting up the spreadsheet.

A couple of excel tips if you like that sort of stuff.

- On the display use "Freeze panes" may work better than split.
- Consider using conditional formating for your colour coding of win/loss/breakeven.
- Use auto-filters at top of the trade table columns so you can quickly find the rows you want.
- I have a column called "Active?" with Yes/No entries so you can toggle what trades you want to see.
- Put a summation row at the top of the sheet so it stays in the "freezed" panes

The commission column seems to be static $12, and I am unsure IB pays you 7.7% on your short positions.

pavilion103 · 23 July 2013

Yes it is obvious that I am not particularly proficient with Excel. I made the sheet from scratch but I lack the polish to make it really good. I wonder if anyone else can do this for me?

Yeh some of those tables and interest calculations to the right are redundant. I'll take them out (except the ones used in calculations). This is just a basic template that I've used to record my trades in.

Thanks for the input

pavilion103 · 23 July 2013

One of the greatest points of interest for me in this exercise is how these setups/trades behave in this market compared to the one earlier in the year.

One thing I noticed with the previous exercise was how they moved in our direction immediately and enough to move the stops to breakeven quickly most times.

A combination of successfully anticipating momentum and also a strong market trend.

Country Lad · 23 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

pavilion103 said:
A combination of successfully anticipating momentum and also a strong market trend.

Yes pav, there is a difference with the current market and ones where "all boats rise". This is very much a stock picking market and continually monitoring the particular share's momentum/market sentiment is even more important in this market.

tech/a · 23 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)

pavilion103 said:
One of the greatest points of interest for me in this exercise is how these setups/trades behave in this market compared to the one earlier in the year.

One thing I noticed with the previous exercise was how they moved in our direction immediately and enough to move the stops to breakeven quickly most times.

A combination of successfully anticipating momentum and also a strong market trend.

Yes will be making some adjustments.

pavilion103 · 24 July 2013

tech/a said:
Yes will be making some adjustments.

I look forward to your thoughts

qldfrog · 25 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

ERA and SDM exited today as well here.sadly, also learnt the meaning of risk when both SBM and MLB collapsed and went past my stop loss with a nearly 30% loss by the time I acted manually
far from ideal and a very bad day today for my system

skyQuake · 25 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

qldfrog said:
ERA and SDM exited today as well here.sadly, also learnt the meaning of risk when both SBM and MLB collapsed and went past my stop loss with a nearly 30% loss by the time I acted manually
far from ideal and a very bad day today for my system

cheer up, MLB had a 25c special divvie today, only down 3c. (75% franking too)

Boggo · 25 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

qldfrog said:
ERA and SDM exited today as well here.sadly, also learnt the meaning of risk when both SBM and MLB collapsed and went past my stop loss with a nearly 30% loss by the time I acted manually
far from ideal and a very bad day today for my system

skyQuake said:
cheer up, MLB had a 25c special divvie today, only down 3c. (75% franking too)

You have to adjust your stop to cater for divvies

brty · 25 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

Isn't this the thread that is meant to be locked for only Tech/a's and Pav's charts?

Coulld we take the conversation elsewhere?

Joe Blow · 25 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

brty said:
Isn't this the thread that is meant to be locked for only Tech/a's and Pav's charts?

Coulld we take the conversation elsewhere?

The locked thread is currently being kept open so tech/a can post at will, and I am manually moving posts across to this thread if anyone posts over there.

Was a bit slow off the mark this evening.

Just a reminder to everyone to please post any comments or discussion in this thread rather than the Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets thread. Thanks!

Country Lad · 25 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

tech, can I assume that your buy point for 12 would be a close of 84 or more?

Cheers
Country Lad :iagree:

Country Lad · 25 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

brty said:
Isn't this the thread that is meant to be locked for only Tech/a's and Pav's charts?

Coulld we take the conversation elsewhere?

I replied there by mistake as well. Joe, might it be useful to have a change in heading such "Technical Trading Exercise (Pav & Tech) COMMENTS HERE". Might make it more obvious when we are posting quickly and not paying attention as I did.

Cheers
Country Lad

Joe Blow · 26 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

Country Lad said:
I replied there by mistake as well. Joe, might it be useful to have a change in heading such "Technical Trading Exercise (Pav & Tech) COMMENTS HERE". Might make it more obvious when we are posting quickly and not paying attention as I did.

Good idea. I have gone ahead and edited the thread title.

qldfrog · 26 July 2013

Re: Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets

Joe Blow said:
The locked thread is currently being kept open so tech/a can post at will, and I am manually moving posts across to this thread if anyone posts over there.

Was a bit slow off the mark this evening.

Just a reminder to everyone to please post any comments or discussion in this thread rather than the Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Charts and Spreadsheets thread. Thanks!

my mistake, apologies to all...

- - - Updated - - -

Boggo said:
You have to adjust your stop to cater for divvies

Thanks Boggo, usually, bell direct conditional orders are reset automoatically for dividends dates, etc and while i knew about the dividend when i bought, I did not realise yesterday was the day...not so bad so..
Thanks

brty · 28 July 2013

Tech/A,

Looking at charts 10 and 13, I'm wondering why they are in your selections. They are both clearly in downtrend. Neither of them have passed a swing high in the current downtrend. They seem to be at odds with all the other pattern selections that are in uptrends.

What is the reasoning for the inclusion of these 2 stocks compared to many others that are near lows with some type of similar pattern? Why the change from just patterns in uptrend?

Chart 14 for instance, is at 5 year highs and clearly in a long term uptrend. This will always have far greater odds of a successful continuation pattern than the same pattern in a downtrend with a tiny bump up.

On another aspect, will you be re-entering into stocks after failure? For instance the SHV trade was stopped with a small loss. However the price reversed, made a slightly higher high and is now in a tight pattern near the highs. A break above the highs would indicate a continued move to me and seem to be similar to some of the other entry points.

Lone Wolf · 28 July 2013

brty said:
Tech/A,

Looking at charts 10 and 13, I'm wondering why they are in your selections.

I believe this is the "volume exhaustion resistance/support set up" that Tech mentioned in post #211 of this thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=26799&page=11&p=785410&viewfull=1#post785410

tech/a · 28 July 2013

brty said:
Tech/A,

Looking at charts 10 and 13, I'm wondering why they are in your selections. They are both clearly in downtrend. Neither of them have passed a swing high in the current downtrend. They seem to be at odds with all the other pattern selections that are in uptrends.

What is the reasoning for the inclusion of these 2 stocks compared to many others that are near lows with some type of similar pattern? Why the change from just patterns in uptrend?

Chart 14 for instance, is at 5 year highs and clearly in a long term uptrend. This will always have far greater odds of a successful continuation pattern than the same pattern in a downtrend with a tiny bump up.

On another aspect, will you be re-entering into stocks after failure? For instance the SHV trade was stopped with a small loss. However the price reversed, made a slightly higher high and is now in a tight pattern near the highs. A break above the highs would indicate a continued move to me and seem to be similar to some of the other entry points.

Thanks brty for the input/questions.

Yes I did mention that I would be looking for prospects in a bottoming patterns.
Currently there are very few continuation patterns presenting and there are quite a few
bottoming with possible continuation patterns forming.
They do have a criteria I look for them to meet.
10 has had a pattern failure so Ill comment on 13
Please see chart below.

Yes I agree they have less chance of continuation but a better R/R when they do.
When the market returns even to mild bullishness these boats will float with all others.

SHV and others like it.
Yes and thanks for pointing it out.
Ive often mentioned that a re entry should be considered both on a buy setup which fails and a sell which is exited and turns out premature.
There are technical aspects of SHV which I have marked on the chart.--Below

debtfree · 28 July 2013

Tech - SHV

In regards to those last 2 bars of SHV on your chart you say 'Supply gone?

Q: If supply is gone and price was wanting to go higher would you be expecting those last 2 bars to be closing at the highs of those bars instead of where they finished? Or is that not so important provided price does not fall too far?

tech/a · 28 July 2013

debtfree said:
Tech - SHV

In regards to those last 2 bars of SHV on your chart you say 'Supply gone?

Q: If supply is gone and price was wanting to go higher would you be expecting those last 2 bars to be closing at the highs of those bars instead of where they finished? Or is that not so important provided price does not fall too far?

Hence the ?

It's clear that it has waned
Yes it would be preferable for a clearer indication.
But I'd have found that indications can be as
Accurate as text book setups.

We will know soon

Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Discussion

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