Technical Analysis = Astrology?

[tech/a]

I never said it didnt work because I haven't even looked at it. And my assumptions weren't meant to be insults.

Never took it that way.

I would be willing to learn your system, back test it and trade it if I knew how to use it.

I dont care wether people use it or not.It was designed to see if it could actually be done.I'd never system traded myself.Stevo started his at about the same time.

If you are still offering I would be interested to see that disk. Is it just a floppy therefore being a small file that could be emailed or uploaded somewhere? And does it use t/a indicators for buy and sell decisions?

PM your postal address and I'll send off a copy.

And just a quick question about your $30k to $400k.

That is a 1330% ROI in 4 years.

On the reefcap forum nick revealed he was making around 30% per year and i assumed you were on around 25% per year since you subscribe to his newsletter and you seemed quite happy with that assumption.

Radge doesnt have a newsletter. But I am a subscriber to the "Chartist" interested in Radges Adaptation of Elliot.
T/T does about 25-30% a year nett. Pyramiding profits and the Margin leverage is far more powerful than the nett return on ANY system.Just using your money/equity more effectively.Its all there week in week out---no smoke and mirrors.

25% per year is a lot different to 1330% in 4 years. Is this backtesting results or did you really make it with this system? And if so, why would you dump this system in favour of a discretionary charting system that nick makes 30% per year with?

Have no intention of "dumping" anything until the Longterm Long system trades outside its "blueprint" which one day it will.As for shorter term trading simply you can make more profit. I must be talented because I trade both ways.A bit of Diversification in trading methodologies.I have limited time so longer term suits but I'm looking into a way of setting up in my office a shorter term methodology which doesnt detract from running a Company (Mine).

Yes it (Techtrader) is purely technical for Entry/Exits and Stops.
Buy the way I think its a pretty average method.---I'm happy with average.

 

[onemind]

Thanks T/A.

I have managed to hack onto reefcap and am reading the system now.

I wouldn't call 1300% profit an average system

... have you ever actually studied, Gann's astrological trading methods
or any financial astrology for that matter, onemind ..... ???

happy days

paul

Now you are just being funny..

 

[onemind]

Sorry, I was referring to trading in general in that statement

Lol, what do you think i have been trying to do all this time? If i found something that worked i would already be trading. I think all that happened there was your bluff got called..

You'll also find these kinds of people running hedge funds. Despite the obvious intelligence of these people, there are still numerous blow ups. So what exactly is your point here?

Lol, just because some of them run hedge funds doesn't negate what the rocket scientists manage to pull of on the markets and the overwhelming evidence they find..So what exactly is your point here?

I once read in a trading book that people wouldnt verse tiger woods in professional golf or compete in the plastic surgery business as amateurs yet millions of people take on these wizards of the markets thinking it is easy..

*Pulls out star charts*

 

[tech/a]

Onemind.

Those that do make consistent profit from the markets,do spend and have spent just as much time learning how to as a Tiger Woods or a Plastic surgeon.

Tiger Started hitting his first Golfball and Traders start with their first trade.
Your no different to anyone else starting out.
You want to know if the effort to do a 5 yr apprenticeship is worth it.
A few here including myself would say sure is.
I've enjoyed/enjoy the challenge and the diversity---you never stop learning.
Even Yogi does some amazing things-- yeh with Astrology.


But in the end its APPLICATION of knowledge and thats where you come in.

Learning is one thing and applying the knowledge another---evident in my Golf.

 

[professor_frink]

onemind,
If you are having problems getting started in trading, then you are most definitely going about it in the wrong way. Instead of this thread, you could have started one asking questions. Explain what you want to achieve, and ask for some advice. It probably would have gotten you alot further than this thread will

Best of luck.

 

[onemind]

Instead of this thread, you could have started one asking questions.

I have asked many many questions over the past year on various forums and its not like i am a total noob. I doubt many total noobs would be going on about random walk and there numerous metastock/tradesim backtest results..

Explain what you want to achieve

money

It probably would have gotten you alot further than this thread will

If the answers i get are going to be astrology and vague descriptions of discretionary trading and mechanical systems which the author doesnt use even though it makes 1300% then i am probably better off sticking to my own research results..

 

[wayneL]

Perhaps your problem is one of psychology.

Profitable systems are not rocket science, but as Tech/A says its in the application.

Finding a system suitable for your own psychology is the tricky bit, this is where the application part can be messed up, if the system is not suitable for you.

 

[onemind]

Maybe..

 

[tech/a]

Ah Wayne beat me to it.

If the answers i get are going to be astrology and vague descriptions of discretionary trading and mechanical systems which the author doesnt use even though it makes 1300% ..

Craig,this is my last post here.

Where did you get that I dont trade the method from?
I infact trade Techtrader and 2 hybrids of it.
I'm firmly convinced after your posts here and on Reef that you cant pull the trigger. Evidenced with this comment

then i am probably better off sticking to my own research results

and this

I have asked many many questions over the past year on various forums and its not like i am a total noob. I doubt many total noobs would be going on about random walk and there numerous metastock/tradesim backtest results..

You've not taken part in one of the strongest Bullmarkets in history
Yet you berate those who have.

Your too afraid of loss and your looking for something that if it fails you'll be able to blame.
You'll have all here who attempt to help you running in never ending circles.

Try GOLF----atleast you'll get a HANDICAP

 

[chops_a_must]

Try GOLF----atleast you'll get a HANDICAP

No tech... he clearly already has one.

 

[onemind]

I didnt participate because i am a young, broke student who is still studying so when i am 50 i can make 1300% too.

It has nothing to do with fear, but undercapitalisation

 

[onemind]

Onya chops. Dont think too hard mate. Chuck another snag on the barbie..

 

[tech/a]

I didnt participate because i am a young, broke student who is still studying so when i am 50 i can make 1300% too.

It has nothing to do with fear, but undercapitalisation

Understood and explains everything---everything.
Goodluck.

 

[onemind]

Thank you

 

[CanOz]

Understood and explains everything---everything.
Goodluck.

Some of your most diplomatic efforts to date here Tech, well done.

Interesting debate here onemind, i've thoroughly enjoyed it. Seriously.

cheers,

 

[onemind]

Glad you like it

Hopefully you got something useful out of it.

If you are interested, I posted the same thing on other forums. One forex and one commodities just to see the different perspectives of traders on other markets.

Here is the forex one: http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=16;t=008339;p=1

And i'll have to look the other one up in a sec.

Its interesting to note that most of the forex traders were in agreement, a little less were in commodities and a lot were against it in stocks as demonstrated

I think the reason for this is because the forex is probably the closest thing on the planet to perfect competition with its liquidity and 2 trillion dollar size making this stuff obvious to forex traders. Next the commodities like wheat ect have price takers and again are pretty close to perfect competition but with things like weather and government trade polocies ect having its effects leads some traders to dispute my random theories. Lastly, the stock traders are adamant that there are repeatable patterns, especially in ASX because of its tiny size and the ablity of investors to know more about companies etc leads them to believe in even bigger inefficiencies that supposeddly show up in the price charts which they think they can exploit. Which is ironic considering the book used stock data.

P.S Here is a link on an obscure forum just to see what the king of forex backtesters had to say about it:http://forum.forexsb.com/viewtopic.php?pid=391#p391

It will be interesting to see what these guys say

I think I have been pretty thorough and have got a lot closer to cracking this nut

Have fun..

 

[Magdoran]

onemind,
If you are having problems getting started in trading, then you are most definitely going about it in the wrong way. Instead of this thread, you could have started one asking questions. Explain what you want to achieve, and ask for some advice. It probably would have gotten you alot further than this thread will

Best of luck.

I agree fully with Professor Frink’s comments, onemind,


It’s got a lot to do with attitude and application. Firstly, if you ask the right questions the right way, you’ll find ASF has many people that have gone out of their way to help others.

If you take the time to read through both threads of interest and particular posters with some knowledge, there truly is a wealth of ideas to be reaped here, but you’ve got to want to do this, and do it with a good grace, an open but discerning mind, and with a positive attitude.

Try using the search function for threads of interest, and try the find all posts from your favourite posters, and go through what they have to say. Go right back to their earliest posts, and follow the dialogues that speak to you. You’d be surprised what you can glean here.

Otherwise if you antagonise people and play games, you’ll just get on the wrong side of the people you could learn from. Why do that? Do you want to learn or not? It’s all about attitude – your attitude. If you’re seeking knowledge, you have to look for it. It’s all here, believe me, lots of good starting points and pure gold posts in terms of real comments and wisdom from real people who are out there in the market place.

Also, be a bit careful about dismissing any concept out of hand. Sure, once you’ve studied it, ask questions, probe a bit, many ideas are flawed, but sometimes there are glimpses of wisdom and inspiration that are worth the effort of wading through dialogues to find them.

But you have to apply yourself, develop an understanding of each school of thought, then venture out and try your hand at them (even if it’s only in theory paper trading until you can build real capital in the future). Listen carefully. Observe, imagine, think, access the knowledge, and build your own unique but educated view of the market.

My advice to succeed in the long run in the market, is to master the most important element in trading and investing – Psychology (I’d say it’s 90% of the game). That is master both your own psychology, and master market psychology. If you can do this, then success may well flow to you. Ignore it, and the market will teach you this lesson, probably at the worst time in the most ruthless manner.

The best book I have read on this is Mark Douglas’ “Trading in the Zone”, and “The Disciplined Trader”, but also Phantom of the Pits is definitely worth a read too.

Analysis, system, and strategy are the next key elements in the mix. If you have an interest in this view point, feel free to search back into the threads where I and others have discussed these concepts. There are many good threads where a variety of competent people contribute their viewpoint, and some of these may well assist you in your journey if you choose to make it. But it’s up to you onemind.

Until you develop a positive mental attitude, you really will be your own worst enemy. Consider resolving to change this state of mind, and to seek out positive ways to approach life… until then, you will be battling with those who may otherwise help you. In the end, it is not them you are fighting, it is yourself, and your future.


Kind Regards


Magdoran

 

[Sean K]

Golly geepers, Onemind, please go and buy some managed funds!

Thanks for the discussion guys. It's been an interesting day.

 

[onemind]

Thanks Mag.

But why patronize me? I have read the books you have read. Van Tharpe, wizards and all the rest of them. I have searched many many forums and read tons of threads. I have posted on many foums and asked tons of questions. I have paper traded stocks, forex, futures.. I have did the maths, stayed up late with excel, metastock, tradesim and many other apps. I have written my own software..

The list goes on and on and on..

I didnt come to my conclusions lightly.

Personally i find all the psychology stuff so cliche. If i hear the word psychology one more time i will eat my laptop. Thats all you ever hear on forums. Every wise guy reading star charts telling you that psychology is 80% and money management is 90%.

Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,Psychology, money management, psychology, money management,


I get it i get it. I have read the same blogs as you. I have paper traded for large profit. I have turned a $500 real money forex account to $1230 in 1 week and lost the lot in the next 2 days.

All i have learned has led me to random walk and the falsification of technical indicators.

You guys just seem to find my conclusion premature, immature, unexperienced and feel the need to patronise me over and over until i agree with your views because then of course i would be right if i thought like you.

The bottom line is, i dont think like you. I think gann was a kook. I think most of t/a is astrology and my new approach to trading is more realistic, more business like and more in line with the big players who succeed ultimately in this game.

So again, thanks for actually trying to post something positive to me after all your put downs, appreciate it. But again, to each their own..

-----

Golly geepers kenny, eat me..

 

[Magdoran]

I have asked many many questions over the past year on various forums and its not like i am a total noob. I doubt many total noobs would be going on about random walk and there numerous metastock/tradesim backtest results..

If the answers i get are going to be astrology and vague descriptions of discretionary trading and mechanical systems which the author doesnt use even though it makes 1300% then i am probably better off sticking to my own research results..

onemind,

Random walk is antithetical to my approach to the market. The sum total of my posts on this forum stand against this viewpoint, as do many others. Have a read and see what you think of the posts, then come back and tear them to pieces if you can.

If you fervently believe in this paradigm, and exclude all others, there is no point logically discussing this further in practical terms. What you should be doing then is really studying this theory and mastering it, and ignoring all others. The fact you are pushing this wheelbarrow into such a forum as this belies the possibility you really aren’t that sure of it in your heart of hearts, are you?

While I have reservations about the astrological schools you refer to, some of them (a minority) do come up with some pretty interesting forecasts… I’d be careful writing Yogi off too quickly, not to say I fully agree with him either, but be careful about imposing preconceived notions before fully researching what you are challenging.

As for technical analysis, sure, a lot of it is bunk, it has to be. But the challenge is to find a unique approach that works for you. If you are already set in your perspectives and paradigm, what’s the point of ramming an inflexible view around the net. Maybe a bit of stirring, but that’s about it. If you’re serious, then try to stop forcing a viewpoint, and start examining ALL the viewpoints intelligently and try to understand the alternative perspectives – that’s how you’ll develop, not by preaching and stirring… think about it.


Mag