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Tech/a vs. CanOz - Futures Trading Competition

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A little update on my activity this week. I've been down with the flu but still managed to get into one currency trade.

The first charts are of the CAD/JPY spread that is due for a seasonal bounce. I reluctantly entered this spread, as did a few others i know, around 9491 on a pullback after a channel break out. It looked weak all night and into the next day. Yesterday i exited with a small loss ($200). I checked this morning only to realize that it broke bad right after i exited. I wasn't comfortable with this trade as it looked like a bear flag was forming. Not being that experienced with spreads i wasn't sure whether to discount this or not...My instincts this time were correct. It could have been worse as the trade had a large money stop. This pair will still be on the watch list for a later entry...

The last chart is of the Wheat spread, the only winning trade so far, its still in open profit of around $600. Its getting close to its target and seasonal exit.

I've also been practicing with Index spreads. Mostly the HSI_HHI spread, trading it 1:1. The HHI has been outperforming the HSI lately, since the liquidity injection, so I've been trying to sell pullbacks. Yesterday was a nice trend on that spread, will post a chart later. Posting charts has become a pain again as ASF is now blocked in China and i need to use the VPN, which is not validated on my trading PC yet...

I have some regrets on the HO spread and i didn't manage that trade as closely as i should have. I have setup my platform enabling me to monitor the P/L for the overall position, whereas it was setup to monitor only the daily P/L. This isn't the first time I've made that mistake, but it will now be the last time.

Incidentally the Brent spread has broke out, so we'll look for an entry there soon again on a pullback.

I've taken a free trial of eSignal, the only platform other than CQG that charts spreads quite well. I'm really impressed with it. I used an 'on - demand' data feed thats 15 min delayed. This works well with the IB platform for RT.
 

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Thanks for the update Canoz. You've had a rocky start with these seasonal spreads. The 5y,15y patterns look compelling but the markets are not complying, yet. You must have a watch list as long as your arm. (btw, good exit on the CADJPY trade)

Your experience so far has been interesting as from what I've read trading spreads is supposed to be a safer and a more conservative way to trade. I hope the seasonal patterns kick into gear for you soon (maybe at the new lunar year).

LOL. This message appeared when I went to post my sympathetic and supporting reply to Canoz.



Edit: Joe must be trialling his new BS detector.
 

Thanks Peter for the ahhh sincere reply

I've put myself out there trading this strategy and its a learning in progress thing for me. I traded it for a while on IBs sim to get familiar with it but obviously in RT its somewhat more challenging. Most of the losses have been mistakes, which i need to be prepared to take, but quick to learn from.

I do have a watch list that has about 10 or 12 spreads, mostly generated from SeasonAlgo's recommendations. I do look at Jay's (JustSpreads) and Joe Ross's recommendations as well, but they're all on SeasonAlgo anyway. Getting the knack of the entry seems to require some finesse. Making sure the book is thick at the time of entry is key as well. I've also started to use a LMT + a MKT order for entry.

Anyway, i hope there is something here for those following Tech and I and i hope i don't embarrass myself too much in the process.
 
Yes having a few problems myself.
Missing opens (Not home early enough) and not finding anything smacking me in the eye.

Taking a trade to participate (I have this desire to be involved) when the trade is poor.

Will keep at it.
Have now dropped to an over all small loss.

I find this totally different to trading against myself.
The competitive nature of a competition is clouding my judgement.
Time to watch some TV and contemplate!
 
Interesting to follow this, particularly the psychology involved .

Tech, even the last 2 nights have provided two strong shorts in the first 30-45 mins that I took (posted in the futures thread). I find most of my good ones come from the open. Now that I'm using bracket orders I can set targets and leave it if I choose.

Would certainly be keen to be involved in a future comp with you guys. I've got nothing to lose and everything to gain
 

Step right in, I'm in the red and Tech's about even...i haven't got any concerns what so ever. The way I'm looking at it is its just a way for me to be held a little more accountable while learning to trade spreads...I need that sometimes. If you feel that competing will help your trading then by all means go for it.
 
PAV
Go ahead just have your IB statement ready.

My last 3 trades have been a comedy
Each time having the direction correct but being stopped
Out before it turns.
Last night was 3.5 ticks past my stop before it fell to - 59
Yesterday was exactly to the tick.

If my entry timing was at the point of my stop placement ----- you get the picture.
Hence my comment I'm looking for the trade rather than allowing it to come to me.

That being identified will move on.

Won't be trading tonight.
Going to see " Wolf of Wall street "
I've read both books and been looking forward to the movie for over a year!
 
It's a fine line isn't it Tech?
The one from the previous week where I got stopped out to the exact tick and missed a 50 point move.
One in that same week, where I moved the stop 2 points, got stopped and lost out on another 30 or 40.
An 80 point week looks a lot different to a 2 point loss!

This is why I love getting on an entry near the open and then having a loose stop to ride it for most of the day if it looks like a possibility.


I think I will sit this one out guys for the following reason.
I start a course in 2 weeks.
Monday, Tuesday night at 6:30!
Wednesday and Friday I have commitments.
Only leave me Thursday.

Unitl daylight savings changes and then I can be on for the first 2 hours 5 nights a week (this is where I take 90% of my trades anyway) and use bracket orders if I need to leave.


Definitely keen to do it. Disappointed this time period sucks!
 
Well we have our first win, all be it a small one. Doesn't do much for the overall R/R. Wheats seasonal exit was yesterday and the weak dollar pushed up the front month more than the back month. I took profits early in the Globex session just before the pit opened when the book was thick enough to get out without much slippage.

Onto the next spread.
 

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congrats on doing this tech and CanOz I am really enjoying the thread. I coudn't do this though, i want to win so bad i would ruin my acc.

keep your focus
 
>Apocalypto< said:
congrats on doing this tech and CanOz I am really enjoying the thread. I coudn't do this though, i want to win so bad i would ruin my acc.

keep your focus
Click to expand...

Murphy's Law
Section 36, Subsection(c), paragraph(2)

Any trade posted publicly on a forum must fail. Furthermore, it shall be the only losing trade on the trader's books, and all other unposted trades on the trader's books shall be deliriously successful. Only the posted trade must fail. This law is absolute and no exceptions are allowed.
 

i really beleive in this, i have noticed it myself.
 

lol @ WayneL...

I think there is another Murphy's law as well...goes something like this:

When a new strategy is first traded live, the strategy will go into an extraordinary draw-down. This draw-down will make the trader question all the testing prior to going live. The resulting losses will beat the traders psyche to a pulp, leaving them battered and bruised and lying in the gutter.
 
Best thing to do is fade Murphy.
Have a bit to post up when I have time.
Think it will be helpful.
Need charts.

Not unhappy with where I'm at.
Still over 2 mths to go.

Enjoying the challenge and learning something new.
Competing live -----
 
tech/a said:
Best thing to do is fade Murphy.
Have a bit to post up when I have time.
Think it will be helpful.
Need charts.

Not unhappy with where I'm at.
Still over 2 mths to go.

Enjoying the challenge and learning something new.
Competing live -----
Click to expand...

After reading various other posts on other threads
I have decided that discussion is pointless and serves
No purpose. The time it takes to present a viewpoint
Serves very little benefit to readers and plenty of
Fodder for cynics
 


I think its a law of physics or some thing more profound.........
 
tech/a said:
After reading various other posts on other threads
I have decided that discussion is pointless and serves
No purpose. The time it takes to present a viewpoint
Serves very little benefit to readers and plenty of
Fodder for cynics
Click to expand...


What the?

Did I miss something?
 
tech/a said:
After reading various other posts on other threads
I have decided that discussion is pointless and serves
No purpose. The time it takes to present a viewpoint
Serves very little benefit to readers and plenty of
Fodder for cynics
Click to expand...

As a self-respecting cynic, I demand my FODDER!
 
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