TCG - Turaco Gold

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

MSR ..... listing on 22072008, this one should start out, with
good support from 2 positive cycles, this month:

22072008 ... minor and positive light on MSR

25-28072008 ... expecting positive news here

August 2008

05-06082008 ... negative cycle

11082008 ... expecting negative news here

18-19082008 ... positive cycle ... short aggressive rally ???

22082008 ... negative spotlight on MSR

September 2008

2908-01092008 ... 2 cycles ... significant and positive news expected.

22092008 ... positive spotlight on MSR ...

23-24092008 ... minor cycle

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[Sean K]

Here's a very low MC gold explorer identified by Miner who may have some potential.

Has some very good initial drill results that are turning into an initial JORC next quarter.

The strike looks pretty impressive and surrounded by some really big deposits such as 5m and 17m oz au!

Worth having a closer look at perhaps.

Cheers Miner!

 

[Miner]

Here's a very low MC gold explorer identified by Miner who may have some potential.

Has some very good initial drill results that are turning into an initial JORC next quarter.

The strike looks pretty impressive and surrounded by some really big deposits such as 5m and 17m oz au!

Worth having a closer look at perhaps.

Cheers Miner!

Thank you Kennas

I am just humbled at your generosity to publish this thread and mentioning me (in a good way

Let us hope we get many more good news about this thread and scrip

Cheers

 

[prawn_86]

The biggest questions i have about micro caps like this in the current environment is will the SP appreciate in the future even though they are just exploring?

A lot of spec money has gone out of the market so i think focus on cash flow is important.

 

[Sean K]

The one thing that did spring out at me was the cash backing v MC which was about paraty at their last report. I think the sp has gone up a little since. They have over 2m left in the kitty which is going to get them through the year I imagine. Must check the cash burn.

Anyway, almost pure speculation at the moment, except they've had some good drill results.

More to discuss I think.

(not holding any)

 

[Sean K]

Been doing a little digging here and tryin to work out why PRU spun these guys out.

It looks like they've just taken advantage of market conditions and grabbed some money from the market to keep the projects going. The board is full of old mates from PRU, Caspian Oil and AZM. Jobs for the boys by the looks, but I suppose that's how it goes in this game. Get your foot in the door and then grab a seat on the board of all your mates companies scattered around the globe.

I have to ask myself, why would PRU spin this out? I mean, they're a gold exploration and development company and MRS is a, um, gold exploration company. Just in another country that's all. They already had the expertise to follow the project through, why spin it?

Ah, light bulb goes off, money ...... So, they've spun this out so it funds itself, albeit mostly from existing shareholders and Mac.

So PRU now hold 40% is of this mob, instead of full ownership. Why didn't they just do a capital raising and keep it 100% owned.

Anyway, just thinking out loud.

I see they have deliniated 500K oz au (under PRU) at one of their prospects, so need to do a MC to oz au comparison to test them. I expect it to be VERY low compared to market.

No idea of grades, depth, etc.

 

[Miner]

Kennas

If you recall MSR got oversubscribed in the public float and very little was offered to public unless some quotas were provided. That explains the volume of MSR is really insignificant to create any substantial effect even if the price is gone up

You were right probably that PRU needed cash badly and took the opportunity that time

I have some strange feelings that now PRU could consolidate MSR and sell as a package to a prospective bidder.

The constant rise of PRU is interesting even if POG is rising as PRU was no one's baby for long time at 30 cents.


I do not hold MSR (I do hold PRU however)

 

[jman2007]

Been doing a little digging here and tryin to work out why PRU spun these guys out.

It looks like they've just taken advantage of market conditions and grabbed some money from the market to keep the projects going. The board is full of old mates from PRU, Caspian Oil and AZM. Jobs for the boys by the looks, but I suppose that's how it goes in this game. Get your foot in the door and then grab a seat on the board of all your mates companies scattered around the globe.

I have to ask myself, why would PRU spin this out? I mean, they're a gold exploration and development company and MRS is a, um, gold exploration company. Just in another country that's all. They already had the expertise to follow the project through, why spin it?

So PRU now hold 40% is of this mob, instead of full ownership. Why didn't they just do a capital raising and keep it 100% owned.

I see they have deliniated 500K oz au (under PRU) at one of their prospects, so need to do a MC to oz au comparison to test them. I expect it to be VERY low compared to market.

No idea of grades, depth, etc.

Sounds more or less correct Kennas,

I was pretty peeved in late '07 when the decision was made to spin out the Kyrgyz assets, at the time it seemed like they were asking me to shell out more money for something that I already owned. I was offered a miniscule number of shares in the IPO, laughed and threw the paperwork in the bin and promptly forgot about Manas. On the other hand, I suppose all PRU holders get a 42% free-carried interest in MSR regardless.

You are right, their land holdings are certainly in a prolific area whch hosts several multi-million oz deposits. The Odilla metallurgical work shows that it might present some problems should they ever take it down the development path - refractory sulfide ore, but possibly amenable to the BIOX process which I know very little about. Shambesai grades look quite nice, definitely a prospect to keep an eye on.

jman

 

[Holy Roly]

This is my first post/reply, and I chose to reply to this post as MSR is one stock I have been watching as far as share price and related news.

Firstly, I have to agree it was strange to spin off MSR, but is was done in the best interests of PRU. That said and done, I have notice that MSR has jump up on very low volume, but no news! I am interested to get involved, but feel the price is too high for me now.

I am also looking at KGL, which at least has a rise on positive news, but I feel KGL is too high for me now too!

Anyway, I'm still watching!

 

[Holy Roly]

My second post/reply, and a few things have changed in the 4 days since the first.

Firstly, MSR - Manas Resources has had the long waited (3 days) price correction, and now looks better priced at a dropped of +21% to 7.1 cents. The buyers left the market or dropped their bid to 7.1 from bids of around 9.0 at the start of the week.

Secondly, KGL - Kentor Gold Limited had a brief drop two days ago to 3.7 cents and is back to support level of 4.0 cents. I decided on the day (two days ago), that KGL offered better value and entered at a bid of 3.7 cents and got it (interest declared). KGL also offers geothermal power joint interest with PAX - Panax Geothermal Limited.

PAX may soon be producing power in South Australia and this may give the market more confidence in Geothermal technology and feasibility. So, now I am watching PAX. Support level seems to be at 10 cents, though yesterdays news might be the reason why it rose from the low 9's.

 

[Holy Roly]

Hmmm... MSR is currently around 12.0 cents per share, and despite their market announcements it can not break through 13.00 cent per share.

I feel this indicates the top price per share and market capitalization is one of the highest for a non producing gold explorer. However, cash in the bank is a little over 2 million, and MSR is likely to get over 1 million from Kentor Gold plus royalties over the next 2 to 3 years.

In short, MSR is an interesting company to watch, but looks better under 10.00 cents per share. Try for 9 cents at current gold prices... it may mean waiting or taking up a better opportunity in the mean time. It may be a month or two, but this stock can bounce quite quickly.

 

[jman2007]

A real 'flying under the radar' company if ever I saw one

MC still pretty small @ $19M, currently $5.3M in cash and 120M shares on issue.

However Manas have been enjoying some good success at their two main projects in the Kyrgyz Republic. Shambesai (390,000oz @ 2.7g/t) and Obdilla (485,000 oz @ 1.6g/t) both appear to be older PRU prospects/projects that Manas have since managed to turn into a couple of pretty attractive projects, which have been nowhere near closed off. E.g. New results at Shambesai released a few days ago of 21.8m @ 4.92g/t Au from 103m, currently outside the current resource model.

Their ground position looks pretty awesome, 4200km² in what is arguably the richest gold-bearing belt in the world. 50+ ranked targets to be tested, of which the first two have already yielded two deposits!! Target of 2M ounces by the end of 2010.

Currently 5 diamond rigs at Shambeasi drilling a 99 hole program, 59 or so completed so far of which only 21 have had results reported for them, so potentially a lot more good news between now and the end of the year.

 

[jman2007]

Btw I forgot to mention I currently dnh

Officially the PRU line would probably be something like "we spun out the Kyrgy assets so we could focus on our core assests in Ghana", but it is still a little murky to say the least imo . Yes, the board is full of lads from related companies who have been scratching each others backs for a while, but that is not my core focus with MSR. I think the current fundamentals are clearly outweighing the negatives associated with this company.

 

[Miner]

Hi folks,

MSR ..... listing on 22072008, this one should start out, with
good support from 2 positive cycles, this month:

22072008 ... minor and positive light on MSR

25-28072008 ... expecting positive news here

August 2008

05-06082008 ... negative cycle

11082008 ... expecting negative news here

18-19082008 ... positive cycle ... short aggressive rally ???

22082008 ... negative spotlight on MSR

September 2008

2908-01092008 ... 2 cycles ... significant and positive news expected.

22092008 ... positive spotlight on MSR ...

23-24092008 ... minor cycle

have a great day

paul



=====

What is your latest thoughts on MSR ?

It is almost one year since you predicted about the cycles.

 

[jman2007]

Well picked up a swag of these @ 15.5c today, took a few days for the order to be filled, so neither buyers or sellers prepared to really budge much atm.

If you look at the periodicity of their releases, they seem to be putting out drilling results every 3-4 weeks. They say they've committed to releasing approx. 80 diamond holes worth of assay data by the end of the year, so should see something in the next couple of weeks. Bounced extremely hard intraday (40-50%) from the last Ann, so could run hard at very short notice.

MC/oz ratio of about 17, so a little on the low side. Should have about $6M in cash to see them through to the next field season in April-May, I imagine winter conditions are a real factor where they are based.

HOLD: PRU, GRY and MSR

 

[jman2007]

Interesting day,

up 15.5% on a down day, breaking resistance @ 17-17.5c along the way. I wonder if it's some of the Directors mates getting in on the action before any more drilling results come out? Bottleneck sounds like it is the assay lab, but if the assays come back as good as what MSR (and me!) hope, could forseeably go to 20c rather quickly.

 

[jman2007]

I wonder if it's some of the Directors mates getting in on the action before any more drilling results come out?

Yup,

Some more news today, some reasonably encouraging infill drilling results from Shambesai:

- 21m @ 12.6g/t from 27m
- 8.5 @ 15.4g/t from 6m

MSR sound confident that results like this could sigificantly boost the oxide component of the Resource. It appears as though the majority of the drilling has been done on 50m spaced sections, so there would appear to be a reasonable liklihood of this happening (eventually).

Still less than half of the total number of holes have been reported on, 89 out of 99 have been drilled, and 38 reported on so far. Went to 20.5c intraday, although may hover at 17-18c until we get some more results.

 

[Pallen]

Why cant this get up?

Seems like there is a heavy seller?

Are PRU cashing in to raise more funds for Ghana, just seems odd that an announcement like todays didnt do mor for the SP?

 

[hobo-jo]

Manas Resources Ltd (MSR) - New All Time High

Manas Resources traded at all time highs today (35.5c) and closed (34c) above the previous high of 32c set in November 2010. It was +15% on the previous days close and looks potentially like a breakout. Volume was healthy with over 2.5m traded.

There's no guarantees that the breakout will hold, especially given Gold's recent weakness (although MSR bucked the trend today), but if it does it's blue sky territory from here. With no overhead resistance it will be interesting to see where the share price would end it's run.

MSR has not been listed on the ASX for very long. They came into being as a result of Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) spinning out their Kyrgyz Republic mineral assets into a separate entity (July 2008).

Perseus Mining continues to hold a significant stake in the company.

Share price: 34c (as of close 17/01/2011)
Number of shares: 177.35m (after final placement in late January)
Number of options: 60m listed (+ 15m unlisted)
Market cap: $60.3m (undiluted)
Cash: $1.8m (Sept Qtr) + $11.5m (placement) = $13.3m
Gold resource: 1.13m Oz
Market Cap / Resource = $53 p/oz

The upside potential could come from the expected low initial capital cost of the Shambesai Project (to move to production) as well as the predicted low cash cost per ounce to mine ($250 per ounce for life of mine). A full feasibility stuy for this project has commenced.

Further to this MSR has huge exploration upside with 4400km² in a highly prospective Gold province.

 

[exberliner1]

I have reviewed once again the recent ANNs from MSR to see if I have missed anything as I am a bit suprised that the SP has stayed where it is.

I really do not see anything negative at all.

In fact the following positives stand out for me.

The bonanza grades reported in this week's ANN were recovered from outside the current resource boundary. In other words this will stand a good chance of further increasing the producing footprint of the mine.

Out of the 20 000m being drilled atm only 5 000m has been reported - 15 000 m still to come.

At the key Shambesai site we have drilled 9 700 metres out of a planned 12 300. I would expect therefore that there will be further drilling in the area of the bonanza grades that are presently "just" outside the boundary of the planned mine.

If 9 700 metres has been drilled so far in Shambesai then the results of the drill core assays are surely imminent on at least a further 4 700 metres.

MSR has spent a lot of time drilling and mapping the area so by now they shiould have a really good idea where the good grades are. This should help MSR to report the best possible g/t from the remaining cores.

All results show that mineralisation is open at depth.

Later this year MSR plans to have upgraded the resource and size of the pit by analyzing in more detail (from further drilling) the western part of Shambesai.

So far indicated and inferred resource totals come to 1.13mn tonnes with an average grade of 2.1 g/t across both Shambesai and Obdilla.

MSR has calculated viability using a gold price of $1000 per ounce. By the time they start producing next year the gold price should still be in the $1500+ level bearing in mind long term structural problems in Europe and USA debt ceiling woes. Using $1 500 we of course get far more profit per tonne of ground dug up.

The drilling is going to cost $5mn for the whole of 2011 and we have $11mn on the balance sheet (maybe $8mn or so after this quarter's drilling.

We have 60mn options which expire at the end of September which on exercise will bring in a further $12mn.

Capex is estimated at $16.3mn

The cost of producing gold from Shambesai over the first 3 years is setimated at US$180 per ounce and planned production is 100 000 ounces pa. That equates to an ebitda type profit of around $1 300 per per ounce or $130mn per year. MSR estimates this will produce free cash flow of $96mn per year.... against our current mkt cap of around $30mn ($50MN diluted) - so a pe of 0.5 then

The company has a PFS currently underway and plans to submit this to the government authorities this quarter in order to receive a mining permit. It should be stated that the Krygistan government and local authorities have a history of supporting mining projects on an FDI basis such as MSR's.

I do not think there will be any need for further cap raising outside the exercise of the options. If you look at EVG you will find that certain banks (Macquarie for example) have a history of lending money when all the hard work has been done and production is imminent.

MSR talks of a payback within 9 months (using $1000 per ounce for gold). At $1 500 or even $2 000 per ounce this time period reduces dramatically.

--

So considering all that and especially the fact that we have a huge number of key ANNs due over the next few months then we can only go up from here.

In which case the options (even with only 10 weeks left) show around 9 times leverage and follow the SP very closely - are surely a bargain worth accumulating.

Finally I hold both MSR and MSRO.

Anything I have missed?

EB