Takeover Targets

[michael_selway]

Re: Next Merger or Takeover (your guesses)?

Will MND or MFS be taken over one day?

thx

MS

 

[Glenhaven]

I suggest that this decade will go down in history as the period of the takeover. It may be private equity of other, it doesn't matter I think there will be plenty more.

So my research is directed into likely targets. Can anyone suggest targets?

Obvious suggestions are the media stocks, clearly CGJ are going and Forsters appear ripe.

Others??

 

[CanOz]

I suggest that this decade will go down in history as the period of the takeover. It may be private equity of other, it doesn't matter I think there will be plenty more.

So my research is directed into likely targets. Can anyone suggest targets?

Obvious suggestions are the media stocks, clearly CGJ are going and Forsters appear ripe.

Others??

There is some suggestion that oil Co.s may be the next wave, Bloomberg...Hope someone goes for BPT.

Cheers,

 

[doctorj]

There is some suggestion that oil Co.s may be the next wave

I felt the insurance industry was due (see post back on 30 July) and since we've seen Suncorp, Promina, OAMPs and a few others merge/TO. I felt the same with Wesfarmers (OAMPs, Coles, Alinta?). And I'm inclined to agree here as well.

And I think it's true at both ends of the market. The Australian market seems to have priced the explorers (big and small) quite cheaply. Woodside looks reasonably cheap when priced on its 2p reserves.

The same could be said for a lot of little companies. The issue with these is that they're not big enough to attract much international interest but still have some great income streams and potential laden assets, so TOs from JV partners or mergers between Australian juniors is possible. PSA, ROC, TAP, HZN, NWE, AZZ & AED amongst many others all meet this criteria. The likes of PCL and FAR are also quite interesting as they hold large stakes in acerage that is significant both in size and potential (1bbo+) - an aggressive player like Tullow PLC could come into the picture here sooner or later.

 

[redandgreen]

I felt the insurance industry was due (see post back on 30 July) and since we've seen Suncorp, Promina, OAMPs and a few others merge/TO. I felt the same with Wesfarmers (OAMPs, Coles, Alinta?). And I'm inclined to agree here as well.

And I think it's true at both ends of the market. The Australian market seems to have priced the explorers (big and small) quite cheaply. Woodside looks reasonably cheap when priced on its 2p reserves.

The same could be said for a lot of little companies. The issue with these is that they're not big enough to attract much international interest but still have some great income streams and potential laden assets, so TOs from JV partners or mergers between Australian juniors is possible. PSA, ROC, TAP, HZN, NWE, AZZ & AED amongst many others all meet this criteria. The likes of PCL and FAR are also quite interesting as they hold large stakes in acerage that is significant both in size and potential (1bbo+) - an aggressive player like Tullow PLC could come into the picture here sooner or later.

I'd be adding BPT and OSH to that list as well......

 

[redandgreen]

KIM this rumour has been around for a while
Gem Diamonds to takeover KIM...........

 

[the barry]

An obvious one to watch is Rinker. Cemex got regulatory approval from the take over panel in the states today, share jumped 40 odd cents on the news. I would think we will know within the next week what cemex's intentions will be, or if another party will step in.

 

[zed327]

AGS by PDN

PDN allready have an JV with Quasar in the same area.

QLD JV with SMM looks like it's bogged to the axles with Beattie.

PDN won't sit by and watch others start producing in AUS.

 

[bigdog]

BHP, RIO, STO, ORI, TAH, ZFX, WPL, CGJ per below

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=154598&postcount=55

A report from Citigroup late last week rated the top ten Aussie companies most vulnerable to a takeover from private equity or a ompetitor. "Resources giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have topped a list of Australian companies most vulnerable to private equity takeovers. The rankings were released this week by Citigroup Research, which also included energy firm Santos, explosives maker Orica, leisure group Tabcorp, miner Zinifex, retailer Coles Group and Woodside Petroleum in its top 10 most vulnerable.

IMO my takeover targets include AGS, AWC, BHP. BLD, MFS, IPL, JBM, KZL, OGD, OXR, RIO. STO, TEL, WPL

Please add your suggested takeover targets or mergers?

Do your own research on potential takeover targets!!

 

[bigdog]

Todays SMH
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...-a-record-close/2007/05/07/1178390184139.html

BHP rumour pushes Market to a record close
May 7, 2007

Australian stock market continued its record run today as reports from market analysts suggesting global miner BHP Billiton could take over rival Rio Tinto sent both stocks surging.

While Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton shares drove the market upwards, shares in national carrier Qantas Airways remained in a trading halt, pending further announcements in the wake of Airline Partners Australia's failed $11.1 billion takeover bid for the airline.

ABN Amro Morgans private client adviser Craig Walker said the market was awash with merger and acquisition talk with BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto were the main drivers today.

"This (BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto) is the next target, I suppose,'' Mr Walker said.

 

[ozambersand]

I have just read scsl's post on the previous page which included a long piece from the Age in December last year. The article starts:

New tax break may trigger a takeover tsunami
Malcolm Maiden
December 18, 2006

IT IS likely to be a short Christmas break for the sharemarket and the private equity raiders who are pulling share prices up by their own bootlaces. Although the Federal Government apparently does not believe it, a change in the way overseas investors are assessed for capital gains tax sets the stage for an increase in the already astonishing volume of private equity-backed takeover bids in this country.

The changes, passed by the Senate on December 6, a year-and-a-half after they were announced, exempt overseas investors from paying tax on gains in the value of shares, including major stakes in listed companies. In effect, foreign investors are now excused from paying capital gains tax on investments that do not involve the acquisition of property, including resources.

The full article is definitely worth re-reading as it explains why the Australian Investment managers don't want to sell eg AFIC are quoted in today's Sydney Morning Herald as saying they don't want to sell their stake in Rinker as "They will have a huge tax bill".

It certainly puts a different perspective on things and does make it an unequal playing field. The argument that it just puts us in line with overseas laws is a bit rich.

I note that it was Labor that helped it get through the Senate as the Greens, Democrats, Family First and Barnaby Joyce all voted against it, so looks like it is here to stay.

From the Citigroup list, size is not a deterrant, so merging to become bigger doesn't seem to be an option to avoid the takeover.

Perhaps the companies want to be taken over by private equity?

Anyone seen Citigroup's full list? I have only seen a few mentioned but I gather the list had about 50 companies????

Would I be correct that the most obvious targets are those whose share price is down at the moment and they have a steady income stream and not too much debt.

Fosters (FGL) and Brambles (BXB) fit that category.

 

[ozambersand]

Added to the above I would put in COA by private equity. Wish I had bought in at the start of April when I identified it as undervalued. It has gone up 30% since!

 

[bigdog]

TAH TABCORP HOLDINGS

Rumour in todays Australian
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21672164-5001942,00.html

Takeover rumours dog gambling stocks
SHARES NEWS
Gaming companies are an attractive target, James Dunn reports

May 09, 2007

IN a sharemarket awash with cash and rumour, no stock is safe from suspicion that it may be next in line for a takeover.

Most recently it has been the turn of gaming industry heavyweight Tabcorp Holdings, which surged to a record high on the back of such speculation.

Tabcorp doused the rumours with a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange that it had not been approached, but the sector -- like most of the market -- remains on alert for the slightest hint of merger and acquisition activity or private equity fund interest in a stock.

 

[bigdog]

Todays SMH takeover by ALCOA for Alcan

AWC ALUMINA

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...-faces-35b-bill/2007/05/08/1178390304511.html

Alumina sitting pretty but faces $3.5b bill
May 9, 2007

ALCOA's surprise $US33 billion bid for Alcan could have major implications for Alumina.

The Australian company owns 40 per cent of the Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals business in a joint venture with Alcoa. Under their agreement, Alumina has the right to acquire a 40 per cent share of the bauxite and alumina assets Alcoa would gain from a takeover of Alcan.

"We gave Alumina Ltd a heads up on this [Alcan] deal," Alcoa chief executive Alain Belda said in a conference call with analysts. "Our assumption is they will participate with us."

Alumina told the stock exchange an Alcoa-Alcan merger could deliver "significant benefits" to its shareholders. But the benefits could prove costly in the short term, given Macquarie Equities estimated Alumina would have to pay $3.5 billion for its share of the Alcan assets. Alumina recently completed a $250 million off-market share buyback.

"Given the current balance sheet capacity of Alumina, that suggests a material equity raising towards the end of the year is not out of the question," Macquarie said.

But Macquarie and ABN Amro analyst Rob Clifford said the acquisition of a portion of Alcan's upstream assets would be positive for Alumina, regardless of a possible equity raising. Given there could be rival bidders for Alcan, other analysts said yesterday's events could actually increase the chance of Alcoa bidding for Alumina.

"If Alcoa is unsuccessful with Alcan, then I think there's a high probability they would look at Alumina," UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock said.

Deutsche Bank pointed out Alcoa's offer for Alcan might be meant as a distraction that would allow Alcoa to launch a "long-awaited" bid for Alumina.

Alumina shares closed 25c higher at $7.58.

Jamie Freed

 

[bigdog]

WA Business report

Stocks hit new highs, propelled by resources takeover talk
9-May-07 by AAP
http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en...w-highs-propelled-by-resources-takeover-talk-

Report includes:
Australian stocks have closed at new highs, as takeover talk surrounding mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto whipped the market into a frenzy.

Market speculation is suggesting the world's biggest miner BHP Billiton may be considering a bid for its rival, worth some $122 billion or more.

"Certainly when there's rumours of takeover that puts a fire under the whole of the market - when this happens it spreads over to a lot of stocks in the resources sector."

Other resources stocks that enjoyed the read-across included Alumina which climbed seven cents to $7.65, Zinifex which firmed 49 cents to $17.88 and Oxiana which picked up eight cents at $3.51.

At 1621 AEST the price of spot gold in Sydney was $US2.10 softer at $US685.7 per fine ounce.

But that didn't stop miners of the precious metal from benefiting from the takeover talk in the sector, Lihir adding three cents to $3.10 and Newcrest advancing 23 cents to $23.16.

 

[bigdog]

Steelmaker may be a target, says Adams
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21738496-643,00.html

Steelmaker may be a target, says Adams
Andrew Trounson
May 16, 2007

BLUESCOPE Steel's soon-to-depart chief executive Kirby Adams said yesterday that navigating a rapidly consolidating global steel sector would be a key challenge for his successor and that the company itself was a potential target.

"Externally, the big issue confronting the company is what is happening in the global steel industry and the consolidation that is going on there," Mr Adams said yesterday.

With the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission set to rule next week on whether to approve a carve-up of Smorgon Steel between BlueScope and OneSteel, Mr Adams said local consolidation was one way of striving to stay globally competitive.

He said that the Australian industry was tiny by global standards, consuming about 8million tonnes a year, compared with record annual global demand of 1.2 billion tonnes.

Mittal's $US44 billion takeover of European steel giant Arcelor last year has sparked a round of consolidation in the sector. India's Tata steel this year acquired Corus Steel for $US13 billion, while US Steel has forked out $US2.1 billion for specialist steel products maker Lone Star Technologies.

"Clearly we are seeing consolidation in the industry in global terms at an unprecedented rate," Mr Adams said.

BlueScope is expected to name a successor at its full-year results in August, and Mr Adams is scheduled to step down in October. All internal candidates have been interviewed by the board, with the leading contenders including Australian manufacturing chief Brian Kruger, North American boss Lance Hockridge and chief financial officer Paul O'Malley. But an external candidate has not yet been ruled out.

The ACCC is due to make its decision on May 23, with the key risk to the Smorgon deal being if it decided import competition would be insufficient to counteract OneSteel becoming dominant in long steel products like rods, bars and wire.

 

[The Mint Man]

What about OSH?
Since the start of the month its share price has jumped about 10% (from around $3.55 to $3.97 right now) making its run for the $4.00 mark.... and its looking like it will get there soon.
After the sale of assets to AGL, OSH is cashed up and they have plenty of good oil and gas projects going on... some of them JV's with big names such as Exxon Mobile. Maybe they are taking a glance?
Anyway, from what I can tell nothing significant (of late) has happened for its price to jump this far. So possibly were seeing investors pushing the price up incase of a takeover?


Cheers

 

[alankew]

At current prices i think that PDN has some potential as a T/O target especially with their holding in DYL and also Summit.Good opportunity with U prices soaring at the moment and destined to go higher in the short term

 

[imajica]

as AED comes into production soon with a big increase in reserves - I can see one of the majors eyeing the prize - market cap is still less than 500 million - cheap as chups

 

[PureCoco]

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DJ ANZ Moves To Compulsory Acquisition Of E-Trade Australia16/05/2007 10:11AM AEST
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) said Wednesday it had acquired more than 90% of E-Trade Australia Ltd. (ETR.AU) and will move to compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares in the online broker.

ANZ, which has bid A$4.30 a share for E-Trade, earlier extended its offer period to May 25, to give shareholders the opportunity to accept the bank's offer. ANZ now has 91.75% of shares in E-Trade.

E-Trade shareholders who don't accept the offer and whose shares are compulsorily acquired won't receive payment for at least four weeks after the compulsory acquisition notice is lodged with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, ANZ said.