Taiwan

Sean K · 9 April 2023

China is doing another 'demonstration' around Taiwan.

This is part of a military offensive tactic of how they might start the war against Taiwan to make them feel scared.

It's going to backfire.

China's medium term geostrategic plan seems to be that they will weaken the West by allowing Russia to do their thing in Ukraine, which will divert US resources to Europe, thereby decreasing their capacity in the Pacific.

But, Russia now has the whole of the EU against them so the US can pivot to the Pacific quite quickly.

NATO even has spare capacity to deploy to the SCS.

Sean K · 10 April 2023

A common tactic that dates back a century or so is to use demonstrations and exercises over time to make an enemy become complacent to the manoeuvres and become relaxed, tired or complacent, creating the element of surprise for the real attack. China have been doing this for a long time against Taiwan now. Each time they do a simulated bombing run or reconnaissance mission they force the Taiwanese airforce and air defences to stand to putting stress on their aircraft, personnel and possibly their AD capability. Russia sort of tried to do this against Ukraine but everyone knew exactly what they were doing weeks, if not months, in advance allowing Ukraine to prepare. This recent show, ostensibly because the Taiwanese President visited the US, is another demonstration. One day, one of these 'exercises' will be the real deal.

rederob · 19 April 2023

Sean K said:
China is doing another 'demonstration' around Taiwan.
This is part of a military offensive tactic of how they might start the war against Taiwan to make them feel scared.

You should read more broadly. It's China practising how to blockade Taiwan. Xi will lose face if he attacks fellow Chinese (despite what the graphic shows), although a strike on TSMC would cripple America's tech dominance.

Sean K said:
China's medium term geostrategic plan seems to be that they will weaken the West by allowing Russia to do their thing in Ukraine, which will divert US resources to Europe, thereby decreasing their capacity in the Pacific.

That idea has no backing with military strategists that I read.
China is a trading economy needing to maintain its shipping routes (plus rail routes to Europe via Russia) in order to remain prosperous.
Accordingly, China's emphasis has been on modernising its navy.
China has no intention of "weakening the west" in any way shape or form as it relies on it to support its growth in the medium term and stability in the longer term.

Sean K said:
But, Russia now has the whole of the EU against them so the US can pivot to the Pacific quite quickly.

FYI America has a massive military presence in the Pacific and won't be "pivoting" as you say.

Sean K said:
NATO even has spare capacity to deploy to the SCS.

That's pretty funny... the Atlantic in the Pacific.

The big picture appears to escape many.
Taiwan is a pawn in the game of hegemony.
By 2030 (some economists believe earlier) China is projected to be the global superpower, replacing America. By 2050 America is likely to be 3rd in line, after India.

The question Australians need to ask themselves is how far we go to support America's forlorn ambition to remain number one. That is, at what cost. Korea was hardly a victory, Vietnam a failure, Iraq worse, and Afghanistan a disaster, and that's just a small number of America's forays.

Keating said decades ago that we are part of Asia, and today - at great reputational cost - he's still trying to convince people nothing has changed. When you look at a map it's easy to see why he came to that view.

sptrawler · 19 April 2023

rederob said:
The big picture appears to escape many.
Taiwan is a pawn in the game of hegemony.
By 2030 (some economists believe earlier) China is projected to be the global superpower, replacing America. By 2050 America is likely to be 3rd in line, after India.

Agree completely, the West has not got the ability to reverse the relocating of its manufacturing base to China, even if it wanted to.
The only way it could happen would be if a war was actually declared, then money and profits leaves the equation and survival is the issue.
But even if that happened, the amount of manufacturing resources available to China as compared to the West is mind boggling, so IMO the West couldn't build enough sht to actually compete.

rederob said:
The question Australians need to ask themselves is how far we go to support America's forlorn ambition to remain number one. That is, at what cost. Korea was hardly a victory, Vietnam a failure, Iraq worse, and Afghanistan a disaster, and that's just a small number of America's forays.

The issue IMO is not how far we go to support America's forlorn ambition to be number one, but more about how far we go to actually maintain sovereignty of our own country.
As was once succinctly put by an Asian leader, Australia is the white trash of Asia and I don't think for one minute if Australia was captured the current residents would have many rights of ownership recognised, the spoils go to the victor.

rederob said:
Keating said decades ago that we are part of Asia, and today - at great reputational cost - he's still trying to convince people nothing has changed. When you look at a map it's easy to see why he came to that view.

Keating was absolutely correct and has done very well with that mantra, as did Bob Carr and he beats the same drum, as for whether the average Australian is better for the outsourcing of our manufacturing to Asia the court is out, because we are yet to see if Asia is as a benevolent society as we have been accustomed to living in Australia with its welfare society.

Time will tell, but my guess is people are in for a rude shock.

moXJO · 19 April 2023

rederob said:
You should read more broadly. It's China practising how to blockade Taiwan. Xi will lose face if he attacks fellow Chinese (despite what the graphic shows), although a strike on TSMC would cripple America's tech dominance.

That idea has no backing with military strategists that I read.
China is a trading economy needing to maintain its shipping routes (plus rail routes to Europe via Russia) in order to remain prosperous.
Accordingly, China's emphasis has been on modernising its navy.
China has no intention of "weakening the west" in any way shape or form as it relies on it to support its growth in the medium term and stability in the longer term.

FYI America has a massive military presence in the Pacific and won't be "pivoting" as you say.

That's pretty funny... the Atlantic in the Pacific.

The big picture appears to escape many.
Taiwan is a pawn in the game of hegemony.
By 2030 (some economists believe earlier) China is projected to be the global superpower, replacing America. By 2050 America is likely to be 3rd in line, after India.

The question Australians need to ask themselves is how far we go to support America's forlorn ambition to remain number one. That is, at what cost. Korea was hardly a victory, Vietnam a failure, Iraq worse, and Afghanistan a disaster, and that's just a small number of America's forays.

Keating said decades ago that we are part of Asia, and today - at great reputational cost - he's still trying to convince people nothing has changed. When you look at a map it's easy to see why he came to that view.

I agree on not following the US. They would grind our youth on the front lines (similar to Ukraine) for their own ambitions.

US was quick to steal our trade and leave us hanging when we spoke out against China.

sptrawler · 19 April 2023

moXJO said:
I agree on not following the US. They would grind our youth on the front lines (similar to Ukraine) for their own ambitions.

US was quick to steal our trade and leave us hanging when we spoke out against China.

The problem is, there aren't a lot of options and the big kids are getting agro with each other.
So pick a side and fall in line, or wing it on your own.
The problem is, we are sitting on a lot of sht the big kids want.

sptrawler · 8 June 2023

The latest aircraft carrier from the U.S, nice bit of kit and how they are going to protect them.

noirua · 23 May 2024

‘Strong punishment’: China starts two days of military drills around Taiwan

Exercises begin three days after William Lai Ching-te took his oath as president of the island China claims as its own.

www.aljazeera.com

May 23, 2024 -
The show of strength, code-named Joint Sword-2024A, comes three days after Taiwan’s new president, William Lai Ching-te, took his oath of office and called on Beijing to stop its “intimidation” of the island, which China claims as its own.

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