T/A lost the plot

theasxgorilla · 21 March 2007

tech/a said:
Like you an experienced fundamentalist---there is NO confusion amongst seasoned Technical Practitioners.

As an aside, the only practitioners I know of who are actually making money in THIS market are using hrly, 15-min and 5-min charts.

Dr Doom · 21 March 2007

Some questions for the seasoned technical practitioners -

Is your portfolio balance today greater than or less than that on 27 February 2007 (in percentage terms)?

and

Based on TA, how do you intend to invest/trade the next 3 weeks (no fence sitting now )?

Kimosabi · 21 March 2007

I don't there is anything wrong with anyones Technical Analysis.

The problem is that the market has thrown the Logic and Common Sense rule book out the window, which makes technical analysis that much more difficult because Technical Analysis doesn't factor in 'MADNESS'.

Now of course, in the not to distant future, many of us suspect this is all going to come unstuck in a very big way. But saying this, it's very hard to sit on the sidelines while you see stocks like FMG surge past $20 and the only Iron Ore they have exported has been in the Suitcase of some Executive flying to China and Japan.

The Volcano has started rumbling, and we know an eruption could happen at any moment but people are still jumping on the volcano to have a look.

Who cares about Technical Analysis, just jump in boots and all because everyone else is...

MichaelD · 21 March 2007

Dr Doom said:
Some questions for the seasoned technical practitioners -

Is your portfolio balance today greater than or less than that on 27 February 2007 (in percentage terms)?

and

Based on TA, how do you intend to invest/trade the next 3 weeks (no fence sitting now )?

Complex questions.

1. Based on Open Equity valuation at close yesterday (which isn't my favoured way of valuing my portfolio - Total Reduced Equity is, but most people like to compare Open Equities) - my portfolio is higher in value by about 1.5% and will likely be even higher at today's close.

2. I intend to invest/trade exactly according to my plans. I have no view on which way the markets are going. I will merely follow where they go. My plans do not require me to form such a view. If I receive entry or exit signals from my systems, I will take them, be they long or short signals.

coyotte · 21 March 2007

Dr Doom said:
Some questions for the seasoned technical practitioners -

Is your portfolio balance today greater than or less than that on 27 February 2007 (in percentage terms)?.

and

Based on TA, how do you intend to invest/trade the next 3 weeks (no fence sitting now )?

Closed all positions, once XJO exceed 6000 -- prior 27/2 (except BLG)

Since --
BLG : Long : Closed : profit.

SUN : Short : Closed : even --- stuck with rights @ a loss

WOR : Short : Closed : profit --- was chasing gap

ALL : Short : Closed : loss (@stop)------ Eq-Tri

Current :

ZFX : Short : Open -- Stop @ 17.10+ --- possible dec/tri .--- below CB long level

ALL : Long : Open --Stop @ Rising T/L 16.06 --- As/Tri and possible Straddle Trade. --- possible EW W5

WOR : Long : Open -- Stop @ variable ATR method (26.00 atm) --- ATR system selection.

See how they go.

Cheers

Atomic5 · 21 March 2007

Kimosabi said:
I don't there is anything wrong with anyones Technical Analysis.

The problem is that the market has thrown the Logic and Common Sense rule book out the window, which makes technical analysis that much more difficult because Technical Analysis doesn't factor in 'MADNESS'.

Now of course, in the not to distant future, many of us suspect this is all going to come unstuck in a very big way. But saying this, it's very hard to sit on the sidelines while you see stocks like FMG surge past $20 and the only Iron Ore they have exported has been in the Suitcase of some Executive flying to China and Japan.

The Volcano has started rumbling, and we know an eruption could happen at any moment but people are still jumping on the volcano to have a look.

Who cares about Technical Analysis, just jump in boots and all because everyone else is...

Last year when the market took it's big time leap into the void end of April, if you looked back through articles from the previous week, everyone was yelling to get out.

But in the day immediately prior to the drop, the market rallied as much as it could; sheer verticle spikes everywhere: one last final all out binge.

Its like anything that is alive that resists death, and it would probably be more recognisable if it wasn't so artificially manipulated. There's your madness.

coyotte · 21 March 2007

Atomic5 said:
Last year when the market took it's big time leap into the void end of April, if you looked back through articles from the previous week, everyone was yelling to get out.

But in the day immediately prior to the drop, the market rallied as much as it could; sheer verticle spikes everywhere: one last final all out binge.

Its like anything that is alive that resists death, and it would probably be more recognisable if it wasn't so artificially manipulated. There's your madness.

Bit Harsh!

Just overlay the LT trend line with ST trend lines and it stands out like dog b*lls where Traders Activity is/has been ---- the Long Term trends are usually maintained -- long term investors are still maintaining their long term profit --- all thats going on is traders are pushing the SP up to a short term level --- it's your choice to participate in the short term move or not.

Cheers

ducati916 · 21 March 2007

Kimosabi said:
I don't there is anything wrong with anyones Technical Analysis.

The problem is that the market has thrown the Logic and Common Sense rule book out the window, which makes technical analysis that much more difficult because Technical Analysis doesn't factor in 'MADNESS'.

Now of course, in the not to distant future, many of us suspect this is all going to come unstuck in a very big way. But saying this, it's very hard to sit on the sidelines while you see stocks like FMG surge past $20 and the only Iron Ore they have exported has been in the Suitcase of some Executive flying to China and Japan.

The Volcano has started rumbling, and we know an eruption could happen at any moment but people are still jumping on the volcano to have a look.

Who cares about Technical Analysis, just jump in boots and all because everyone else is...

Interesting.
Normally claims are made for T/A being exactly the opposite; viz. you can read the sentiment [psychology] of the crowd. [see tech/a posts as an example]

So now T/A is a waste of time for reading, interpretating, analyzing market sentiment [psychology]?

jog on
d998

coyotte · 21 March 2007

Footnote : post 45

Just closed WOR @ 75% retracement --- in profit

Cheers

tech/a · 21 March 2007

Same old Same old.

Boring.
Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.

ducati916 · 21 March 2007

tech/a said:
Same old Same old.

Boring.
Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.

Actually it's not. It's the complete opposite.
Normally there would be endless posts on the predictive power of T/A viz. high probability trades.

There would be endless posts on the ability of T/A to tease out and analyze the changing sentiment of the herd at the earliest moments.

What we have on this thread are two [unrelated?] posters that have alluded to the failure of T/A in the last 2week period of high volatility.

jog on
d998

theasxgorilla · 21 March 2007

As an aside (which should really be on the XAO thread, but nobody is looking over there!)...are we expecting negative news out of the US this Wednesday?

The ASX Gorilla.

ducati916 · 21 March 2007

ASX.G

The FOMC have been sitting for 2 days and will release tomorrow.
Concensus would seem discount rate to remain @ 5.25%

MS releases earnings BMO

jog on
d998

Sean K · 21 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
As an aside (which should really be on the XAO thread, but nobody is looking over there!)...are we expecting negative news out of the US this Wednesday?

The ASX Gorilla.

I thought the bad news was going to be housing, but it seems to have blown over. Interest rate seems to be factored in.

tech/a · 21 March 2007

Duc.

If people here allude to be technical analysts/traders and they cant use that analysis in this market then they arent worth the screen space in which their chart is plotted.

Arguements the same. Is Analysis technical/fundamental/stargazing/newsletters/asking the neighbour---of any worth.

My reply.
If it works for you/anyone then go for it---only you know and I'm not going to teach you.
Duc I wouldnt trade the way you do but hey you seem happy with it.

Same old same old---different packaging.
Has become boring---well this thread.

Dr Doom · 21 March 2007

tech/a said:
Same old Same old.

Boring.
Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.

No, its prove if the seasoned technical traders are or have made a profit in the current market (since 27 Feb specifically) using TA - don't be shy Tech/a, how have you faired?.

Some (Coyote) have provided some interesting insights, much appreciated.

coyotte · 21 March 2007

Sorry Tech

Posts 45/49 where simply in reply to post 42 --- with TA reasons explained.

Bit more informative than your explanation of your BHP methods with your long term portfolio.

Cheers

It's Snake Pliskin · 21 March 2007

coyotte said:
Footnote : post 45

Just closed WOR @ 75% retracement --- in profit

Cheers

Good stuff Coyotte! Where did you enter so I can track the trade?

Same old Same old.

Boring.
Now its prove who's making a profit in the current market.

Tech,
Would you prefer not to see who is using TA and the results that come from it? Sure it can't be validated, but.......

It's Snake Pliskin · 21 March 2007

tech/a said:
Has become boring---well this thread.

I disagree Tech, it has potential.

coyotte · 21 March 2007

WOR:

"Jim Berg's ATR system" trigger was on Fri 16/3 --- Entry was on Mon 19/3 below 27.36, was @ 27.15

Trade is still a System goer -- but used a traders discretion @ the 75% level --- can always re-enter.

If U want a chart can post it later tonight --- with analysis.

Cheers

T/A lost the plot

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Dr Doom

Kimosabi

MichaelD

Not fooled by randomness

coyotte

Atomic5

coyotte

ducati916

coyotte

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

ducati916

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

ducati916

Sean K

Moderator

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

Dr Doom

coyotte

It's Snake Pliskin

It's Snake Pliskin

coyotte

Similar threads

T/A lost the plot

Problem solved... next bubble.

Not fooled by randomness

No Ordinary Duck

Problem solved... next bubble.

Moderator

No Ordinary Duck

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency