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- 21 April 2005
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Kauri said:
Nice post Kauri
Kauri said:All analysis attempts to look forward, how many people quote a 200 day MA and say that the price will rebound from it, or Stochs are oversold or RSI is oversold, and the price will correct from these levels, how many use patterns like flags or triangles to predict the price will move in a certain direction, how many use fundementals to say that a company is undervalued and hence a buy as the price will move to more realistic levels?? I don't think I have met anyone who invests/trades on the markets who buys long unless they believe that the price will move up according to their particular analysis technique.... because of this promise, and because of the way a practioner (even a half-baked one) wields this technique, it can plav havoc with an observers psychology, particularly if you have a limited understanding.
As for E/W, yes it also can be used for prediction, however the best way I have found to incorporate it into my trading is to identify the probable position I am in in the trend. As such the first downleg in the current correction was tradable short, the following correction provided some quick long trades, but the subsequent dip and current rally over the past week could go anywhere (I have three possibilities on my chart but I am sure there are others), my basic E/W gives several current possibile predictions, but for mine not tradable until the trend asserts itself one way or the other. When it will happen, why it will happen, and in which direction will it go, I don't know and don't care, but when it happens I will be ready, until then not being in the market is as much about trading as being in it. Whilst I am waiting there are still good trades available in FX, Gold etc...
MichaelD said:Well said, Coyotte (and in fewer words than I would have, too).
It ain't the analysis that makes the money. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that technicians that make money (myself included) do it DESPITE our analysis.
Political analysisI had already posted on another thread that I thought the likelihood of a rally until late April was a possibility, but for political and other reasons.
Most TA advocates can't call tops.I am not a tecnical trader so I didnt call any top.
An important aspect to understand using simple TA.Then seeing those assumptions somewhat translated or concorded by a technical view/chart analysis by Tech/A was really interesting. I have since read other historical-data analysts and brokers express a similar point of view using varied other reasons to support the idea.
Seeing as the ASX is at 5,919.20 today, the new top estimate may be in fact be realisable. Make up your own minds on this though, and the chart unfortunately can't be read to tell us when.
Even if you don't use charts, subconsciously you process your interpretations of energy, momentum and market pysychology and you are equally at risk from the elements of chaos that the charts cannot predict, such as: a Greenspan statement, the release of data, a rate rise, strikes, other political events, war, natural disaster, or even the non-discovery of resources after drilling (watchout WMT) etc.
An understanding of TA may help here.With Forums though, like most people I just have to watch out that it is not merely wishful thinking, or peer brainwashing.
tech/a said:Coyotte.
Why have you chosen a 50 point box size?
You will have completely different analysis with a 5 or 10 point box size.
If A happens then B will probably happen.coyotte said:Had to get my head together and get back to basics!
This is what I always thought T/A was about --- no prediction in this analysis just if A or if B happens then this is the probable result.
coyotte said:Because it's a Doyle/Craftchart Style.
Cheers
coyotte said:Had to get my head together and get back to basics!
This is what I always thought T/A was about --- no prediction in this analysis just if A or if B happens then this is the probable result.
Apart from a Point Chart, you can't get much closer to price than a P&F Chart.
Though not in the style of Du Plessis, it will do for this exercise.
Perc Box size with a 3 BOX reversal of the XJO
Currently:
Long: Double P&F TOP needed at the 6000 box and a X in the 6100 box
Short: Double P&F BOTTOM needed at the 4900 box and a O in 4850 box
Well above the P&F UP trend line -- under P&F rules a SHORT should NOT be initiated at this point.
Any new DOUBLE P&F TOPS or BOTTOMS during any advance/decline would overule the present TOPS and BOTTOMS.
Cheers.
kennas said:If A happens then B will probably happen.
Is this not a prediction?
I'm confused coyotte. I thought you were arguing that T/A was not about predicting? Am I reading this wrong??
Sorry, if I've missed the plot here, it's early.
I,m not actually saying the methods had lost the plot --- BUT some of the practitioners certainly appear to have
coyotte said:The original post in this thread was directed at (SELF INCLUDED) at the posts that had been appearing over the preceding fortnight STATING that the XJO was in a EW corrective move by posters who have very limited experience in this school -- some even blatantly overiding the views and advice of those who do have the qualification of experience in this field.
Even having the naivety to be predicting prices under EW analysis and the STATEMENT that this is a correction without any mention of possible counter views from the schools that they are familiar with .
The P&F chart is simply another school --- am not advacoting that it is the "holy grail" and as with all methods there are other schools contained within P&F eg: DuPlessis .
Even the old stand by 10/40 weekly (another school) has shown throughout this period that the XJO was still in a Bullish Stage .
What amazed me in all this was no one was seriously challenged .
I,m not actually saying the methods had lost the plot --- BUT some of the practitioners certainly appear to have
Cheers
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