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SYS - Syngas Limited

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The speeding ticket reponse today was interesting, mentioned numerous agreements being negotiated - could just be a bit of ramping, but perhaps they are getting close to some significant offtake agreements. If they have these agreements in place then the financing for the project will become much more likely, sp will improve and therefore any cap raisings will have a smaller dilutive effect. All sounds easy in theory!

Lets see..
 
Something is definitely up - this has been a sustained rise that has now broken through a couple of resistance lines without even hesitating - the volumes not high, but I think that could point to some very confident buyers who aren't concerned about the risk. Some fish swimming against the flow - but what bait are they chasing??? I don't think the rise of the POO could explain it, and given the volumes there's no reason why you couldn't just accumulate around the 3 - 3.5c range over time - unless time is runnig out..

All specualtion on my part mind you, but something is driving this rather strange activity...

Me thinks news coming....
 

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Datsun Disguise said:
I've been watching some accumulation in SYS over the last week or so and today it has jumped, although on modest volume.. THis is one very unloved share, but perhaps POO being north of $70 a barrel is helping to re-focus attention? As I posted on ther BLK thread, I can't see CTL not being a significant part of our future transport fuels landscape. The bopd projections are large, as is the investment required to build the plant. But it is important to remember that this is not unproven technology, it's already being used in numerous places around the world. I reckon SYS and BLK are both ones to not just watch but take a long term punt on as well.
Click to expand...

Good Investigating DD.
I've held through the ups and downs, hoping that this is one way to tackle the 'we're running out of oil' problem.
As they have everything pointing in the right direction, except money, wouldn't it be nice for BHPB to give these guys a hand, and in reply BHPB have the fuel and power to run the huge Roxby Downs expansion??????
Or am I just dreaming:rolleyes:;):D
 
Hadn't expanded my thinking that far - but it makes sense doesn't it - wrap up the offtake agreements and the financing agreement all in one big package. I like your thinking Gspot, perhaps an email to Jac Nasser alerting him to this mutually beneficial arrangement may be in order!

But maybe he is one step ahead of us - here's hoping so....
 
whoa... someone dumped a big parcel of these today... 10,005,050 @ 0.05....

I keep thinking these are going to take off again but they seem to be going nowhere....
 
SYS has made a huge announcement regarding its coal to liquids project based on the Clinton coal project in South Australia.

It has signed an MOU with CNEEC (Chinese govt group) to finance up to 85% of the development, with other strategic co-operational arrangements in place as well.

For a company with a market capitalisation of only $3.2 million (as of yesterday) you can imagine how the share price reacted on its opening this morning, up from 1.4 cents to a max 4.2 cents. This is a company maker announcement and I'm sure once the market realises it SYS will be completely re-rated upwards even from this high of 4.2 cents (thats a market cap of less than $10million!).
 
By far the best performer on the ASX today by a country mile, up ++100% from 1.4 cents to 3.3 - 4.0 cents (depending on what minute you check the price!), volume of more than 23 million after just 35 minutes trading!

But the key point of my post is that with only 230 million shares on issue, and a current market cap sub A$10 million, its a company making announcement of huge proportions. Its Clinton coal to liquid project in SA is an immense project, so anyone getting into the company today will be buying a strategic position for a huge future profit IMO!

I can see SYS market cap climbing to over $100 million in the coming year alone (of course there will be share issues to help that process, but there is also going to be huge capital appreciation as well)!
 
This is the sysngas thread beatle.

WOW

What a day - as beatle said in the other sys thread 230m shares on issue 0 sitting at around $11m market cap now - more to go on this announcement - must be worth 20 - 30 million on this. this is like an oil explorer confirming that they have a 15,000 barrel per day confirm production test - just that the commercials are a few years away.

lets see 15,000 bboe per day = 5 475 000 a year = *$50 profit per barrel
= $273,750,000 pa profit

Divide by 230m shares = $1.19 per share earnings

x13 = $15.47 a share.

Yes I've been holding a while!! Glad I did!!
 
Hi Datsun_Disguise, I really love that analysis of yours, I would be happy to sell out my holdings at say 50% of your estimated $15.47/share Lol, but even if it doesn't get there today that announcement is helping SYS get much greater market credibility after being in the doldrums for such a long time! I admit to being a long time holder that lost interest in the company a while ago, not for the project that I believed was conceptually very exciting, but more that I lost belief that SYS could bring in a major to take it towards the end game! I have now changed my mind with this announcement!

The trading whilst very brisk, with turnover almost at 100% of shares on issue (volume after 3 1/2 hours of trading being 205 million shares, totalling $9.5 million in value!), and up around 235% to about 4.7 cents. I'm convinced that we have not seen the last of this activity. I can imagine SYS putting out some news soon regarding certain investors taking up positions, each of those announcements will add layers of credibility to this great announcement today.

I believe therefore that SYS remains a good investment for the longer term, knowing that it will slowly add to todays news with more positive company supporting announcements. Of course its still speculative, but for a company with a market cap of just over $10 million at 4.7 cents its got piles of room upwards to move!
 
hi Beatle - it may be a little optimistic as I'm sure that we will see some dilution in order for SYS to raise their 15% minimum. What is good news is that this doesn't seem to be an equity deal - sounds like a build and provide access to finance - hopefully this is in the form of loans and not massive share issues - that's the major risk to a very very healthy return on this (as opposed to a very healthy one).

Anyway I'm excited and expect this to move up to 10 c over the next little while - reminds me of AVB and their move from 1.4c up to 23c not long ago!

You are right - this announcement looks a lot like a company maker in my view. I think once people get their heads around the size of the project they'll quickly see the $10m market cap is just ridiculous - there are exploeres out their with nothing but dirt with higher market caps than that. I might take some time to do a company summary this week for ASFers to digest. I promise to keep it real.

Final note to new SYS followers - Gas to Liquids is not 'experimental' or only posisble in a lab - it is an existing commercial technology being used around the world. The clinton coal has been analysed and confirmed as high quality lignite for the purpose of GTL. Time to sell the house befor ethe bubble bursts and get on to this pony! (still excited)
 
HI Datsun_Disguise. I look forward to your summary when you get around to it, as long as its balanced in terms of any valuation etc then it will get a much better longer term reception from anyone who reads it I believe.

I hope that we get some follow on announcements to the market related to aspects of the terms of that MOU in coming days/weeks. My past experiences with SYS has been that the announcements are very exciting at the time, promising much but only to fall away over time so that the market slowly becomes numb to the future announcements. Since yesterdays announcements were company making if they can follow through with it then they must do that, follow through.

I would like to see another player take up a position on the register of SYS, as a placement, possibly at a premium, that way you know someone is serious. If that player is a Chinese group even better! Although I'm interested to know about whether such an equity deal could be made at the moment with the current aversion to overseas groups taking hold of Australian companies (ie SGX for ASX as an example) by political groups (that is no political commentary by me, just an observation!) - of course SYS is hardly the ASX with respect to the business that it carries on and intends to carry on with, but then again significant diesel production must be considered a strategic national asset once in production!
 
I've had a chat with Merrill regarding the announcement yesterday, particularly with regard to the role of CNEEC, being that its apparently primary role is to act as an engineering EPC contractor. I wanted to clarify whether it really had the capacity to assist SYS towards it getting funding in place for the project. Merrills comments are most instructive, and please excuse me if I have misrepresented her comments, but I don't think so:

1. CNEEC does actually undertake the role of engineering contractor, primarily on an EPC basis, but in that process undertakes a review of projects, whether they be China or overseas based, that confirms project viability and attractiveness for investment in the future by effectively a Chinese state wealth fund, which has around US$40 billion for investment in such projects. The aim of CNEEC in this SYS project therefore is to initially vet the project (already done), then prepare an alliance (in process with the first step being this MOU announced yesterday), then develop the engineering arrangement coupled with finance.

2. As a precondition, as denoted in the announcement, SYS must bring to the party investors capable of bringing in funding on behalf of SYS for the first 15%. SYS is currently in discussions with certain overseas investors, who may not be Chinese (more likely European) who will become involved with the project through an investment in/with SYS.

I can only conclude that the first announcement of yesterday will be followed up with some interesting developments in the coming weeks. So whilst the trading may continue at its own pace and course of share price, I believe there is a good reason to retain your shareholdings on the basis that you might be surprised, pleasantly, with some extra news flow sooner than later....

On that basis, I am holding despite the share price coming off somewhat today.
 
Excellent research and post Beatle - it's the ones like yours above that make logging on to ASF worthwhile.

Today's close values SYS at a little over $7m. I mean come on. Maybe some unwinding of positions made above the 4c mark today, if so it should run up again tomorrow. Let's see.

Summary will have to wait until next week - fully booked until monday now.
 
Thanks Datsun_Disguise, and I very much look forward to your commentary and analysis early next week. As you say its amazing to think that SYS sits on a market cap of around A$7 million, its got some very exciting ingredients to make a smallish speculative investment turn into the best retirement fund anyone could ask for:
1. A huge project that has an immense future with robust economics, based on a 30 year plus coal resource convertible into diesel;
2. Alignments with large overseas engineering groups (not just CNEEC!) assisting with the development of the process and engineering, on already tried and tested technology;
3. Associated groups (including a Chinese state wealth fund) having an interest to assist with the funding of the project, with product take off;
4. Current discussions with overseas groups to either take up the first 15% of funds in the project, or by way of equity in SYS;
5. An extremely discounted share price and minimal shares on issue (230 million), resulting in a great entry opportunity at low cost per share!

These ingredients mean that its got the potential to be a real money maker for those prepared to stick it out. You don't even need a huge investment to potentially get a huge return on your investment!
 
A recent ann about seccuring future supplies of non food biomass from the local farmers.

maybe a way of some income for the bio diesel process earlier than expected , still a lot to be done yet

im holding and will buy in further under 2c
tuck em away for retirement when diesel is $300 a barrel
 
Happy New Year SYSer's.

Hope all are well, at any rate better than SYS's share price at the moment! I think 2011 will be SYS's year. As discussed above, the key piece is achieving a funding arrnagement for the 15% or even part there of required as part of the CNEEC MOU.

The investment required to do this is significant at around $3bn so it is a decent chunk of change to ante up. The more astute among you would have noticed that there's been a lack of econmic growth around in the US and Europe for a little while which has caused the price of oil to site at around $80 - $90 a barrel for some time. If we concentrate on the key step of securing an investment partner for the clinton project it will depend partly on the major economies beginning to recover next year. Reason I say this is that should growth begin to normalise in the US (possible) and Europe (hmmmm) the price of oil will again move up to $100+ a barrel as demand increases - talk will come back to alternatives to conventional oil reserves and projects like Clinton will again begin to look pretty good.

The risk is that Europe falls of a cliff and takes the banking sysem and global growth with it. In that case I'll just be putting mine in the bottom drawer and hoping that the company survives the storm.

Those are my thoughts on SYS for this year - if the planets align and 2011 is the beginning of the global economy recovery (form your own view on that) then I think we'll see SYS (and potentially Blackham) receive a significant re-rating. Good luck, all and have a great 2011!

PS - I mentioned doing a summary a short time back but I reckon if you read this thread and a couple of company announcements you'll get the idea - plus beatle stole my thunder a bit with his/her post #34... I'm over it now beatle, my therapist thinks so anyway....
 
So, given the 50% pus movement in share price over the last 24 hours and the 100m + shares traded combined with the lack of any comment by ASFers it seems no-one is on SYS?

You all know I am, I wonder what the cause is - could have been the announcement re the pre feasibility study announced ofr a biomass to power project. The main benefit to this is some positive cashflow that will take the company through the dev period of Clinton without any cash raisings to keep the lights on. that's positive news but shouldn't have the impact that it seems to have had. So is it possible a material announcement re Clinton is coming???

Waiting for the speeding ticket and the response to it....
 
Heads up guys & gals - pretty poor announcement this morning. The clinton project sounds dead - apparently the processing of the salty clinton coals makes the project forecast less favourable - reading between the lines they cannot proceed without finding a new way to process these coals. WTF - i have followed SYS pretty closely and I don't ever recall reading about high salt content in the coal.

Sounds very much like they are now back to sqaure one - talking about processing straw or buying coal from an exisitng mine.

How did it get so advanced only to find that the coal is not suitable for CTL? Merryl's got some explaining to do.
 
Crikes batman,
was gettin itchy feet with this one and sold out last friday!!!!!
only time ever i beat the starters gun :)

Needed the funds to support another company. is this bad news enough to kill the company ?what your thoughts Datsun.
 
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