SXY - Senex Energy

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Technical sentiment is quite positive and improving. Looking for a move over 0.77.

It did - in April.
And I thought it might again in the latest move. But the words "plugged and abandoned" in today's JV announcement are likely to throw a spanner into the works.



Glad I sold when it hit resistance at the one-year EMA.

 

[pixel]

Apologies - my mistake: I got my Hoopers and Worriors mixed up :1zhelp:

 

[Rokewa]

SXY : Senex

Good day

I am a Fan of Senex. Noticed some huge x trades today. The market continues to shrug off good news. Wondering who is buying in and who is selling out. Price dropped two cents.

Any thoughts?

 

[Faramir]

This is my first Spec stock. (My 6th stock over all). I brought them Thur 24 Jul. 2142 shares @ $0.695. Now it is $0.635. I guess that the Announcement they were going to make on Mon 31 Jul would be positive. I thought there would be an increase of volume from the back of this news. How wrong I am? There are more sellers than buyers at the moment. During June and much of July, SP was going sideways with little action volume wise.

I have been following SXY for a short time. They have no debt. They scored a good deal with Origin Energy back in Feb 2014. The balance sheet looks good to me. Then I found out that they have issued lots, I mean of lots of shares. I didn`t studied SXY as much as I thought I did. I thought I could ride the coat tails of an LNG price boom. After to SXY Half Yearly podcast, they sold me.

So I speculated that after their June quarter announcement, things would look rosy. I was deciding between Beach Energy or Senex Energy. I should have spent more time on Beach Energy research. I was trying to beat a SP spike. (Still feeling a bit sad after missing SPL price spike mid July).

Now that Senex have good wells in Cooper Basin, my preferred option is to hold. Need to learn to read charts. Need to time things better. I believe that they have a good future. Only time will tell.

 

[goccipgp]

Looks like there was an opportunity to make money here. Six months target at au stoxline is set to 0.815.

 

[crypto]

Another 'plugged and abandoned' statement in the most recent drilling report.

 

[tradernor]

Article from Seeking Alpha about Senex Energy, its 2P reserves, its EV/2P reserves ratio and comparison to other Australian energy companies like Santos, Drillsearch, Beach Energy etc.
See the middle of the article to find all these ratios:


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2566285-petroamerica-my-additional-take

 

[Wysiwyg]

Looks like there was an opportunity to make money here. Six months target at au stoxline is set to 0.815.

Maybe the oil price dragged them down this last leg but WTI may have found a low and SXY has responded accordingly with a 5% rise on previous day close. Certainly have a great wordsmith on board with glowing reports, presentations and outlooks but materially they do have some substance I think. Not a holder at present.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Maybe the oil price dragged them down this last leg but WTI may have found a low and SXY has responded accordingly with a 5% rise on previous day close. Certainly have a great wordsmith on board with glowing reports, presentations and outlooks but materially they do have some substance I think. Not a holder at present.

Well I got it wrong on this occasion as crude has slipped further and my recent entry was too soon with good money following bad in the last few sessions. The upward breakout rejection then a doji day of indecision was a hint at further downside but I took the trade on thinking crude had bottomed out but no. Now SXY could possibly look at the 42c to 44c range for support on a historical resistance area from 3 to 4 years ago since we are at new lows as well as the lower down trend line. Another factor is a possible dry well at Akela1. My own assessment of where the price could go in the near term although things can get better or worse in a very short time in the oil game.

 

[shouldaindex]

Just a bump for SXY.

They've targetted a tripling of production and reserves by 2018, which would see EPS multiply very handsomely (assuming no dilution).

Can they deliver?

 

[greggles]

Senex Energy has seen a share price lift this morning following the release of their Quarterly Report. Here are the Highlights:

You can listen to this morning's conference call here: http://www.openbriefing.com/OB/3006.aspx

Cash balance at end of the quarter was $66.5 million.

In terms of the SXY chart, it has been range trading for the last four months between 39c and 46c. Today it gapped up, opening at 43.5 and is currently trading at 44.5c, not far from the upper edge of the recent range.

Given today's strong quarterly results, I think that it is likely that SXY is going to move up and out of its current trading range and should break through 50c in the short term.

 

[Faramir]

Thank you @greggles for bringing Senex to our attention. During its dark days, a simple motto:
Growth
Accelerated
Strategy
I tried to get into the gas story. Picked up a parcel $0.27 and another $0.145. Felt so stupid when it hovered around 12cents during its dark days.

I was going to sell once it broke $0.40 but I am hanging on for now. There's more legs in Senex. Especially when the East Coast needs GAS.

 

[Parse]

Senex seems to be a position of relative strength now, in my humble opinion and I think it's SP will be on the rise as oil prices increase through March. SXY's recent half yearly report identified the following key highlights:

• 49% increase in production to 557 kboe (H1 FY18: 374 kboe) from new oil wells online and higher gas volumes.
• 33% second quarter ramp - up in Roma North gas production , with half year production of 134 kboe (H1 FY18: 18 kboe).
• 44% increase in sales revenue to $43 million (H1 FY18: $30 million) on higher production and prices.
• 74% increase in EBITDAX to $17 million (H1 FY18: $10 million) from leverage to increasing production and prices, and continuing focus on strict cost control.
• $20 million turnaround in operating cash flow to $14 million (H1 FY18: - $6 million), demonstrating underlying strength of business.
• Financial close of $150 million debt facility to fund Surat Basin gas development projects.
• Final Investment Decisions for Project Atlas and Roma North to deliver gas production of 48 TJ/d (~3 mmboe per annum), with expansion potential, by the end of FY21.
• Major Surat Basin project milestones , including WSGP environmental approvals, Roma North civil works and pipeline, and Project Atlas environmental submissions.
• Gemba - 1 gas flow rates of 8 mmscfd on test, indicating a potential new Cooper Basin gas resource.

There's a $20 million turnaround in operational cash flow in there. Something that should please the market.

 

[Parse]

Ahh back to this massively popular thread on Senex Energy

Seems a number of the oil/gas stocks are not moving as much as the oil price these days. Some of them, like Senex, are also hitting new milestones which also don't seem to draw any of the bears to the stock.

On the 27th of March Senex announced it had secured final environmental approval for Project Atlas. Projeect Atlas comprises drilling of around 100 natural gas wells and infrastructure in Queensland. Senex has made other positive moves forward in recent times as well and I believe it's share price is set for an increase.

Hopefully market tensions and various global "fears" subside in the near future and help bring the bears back to the market with companies like Senex.

 

[Smurf1976]

Seems a number of the oil/gas stocks are not moving as much as the oil price these days.

Something to be conscious of is to what extent these companies are "oil" companies and to what extent they are "gas" companies since the two markets are different with oil being the more valuable of the two commodities both on a volume basis and on an energy content basis.

 

[Parse]

Senex has been going through a bit of a rough patch with the markets.

13/05/2019 Senex Energy Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse
13/05/2019 Senex Energy Price Target Cut 28% to A$0.36/Share by Credit Suisse
01/05/2019 Senex Energy Price Target Raised 7.9% to A$0.41/Share by Morgan Stanley
01/05/2019 Senex Energy Downgraded to Neutral From Buy by Citi
01/05/2019 Senex Energy Price Target Cut 15% to A$0.41/Share by Citi
01/05/2019 Senex Energy Price Target Raised 5.7% to A$0.56/Share by Canaccord Genuity
Don't you just love these! Makes me wonder if they actually know something or are just rolling the dice.

Anyway yesterday Senex announced they have started commissioning the Roma North gas facility. This facility will provide ~6 PJ/year (16 TJ/day) of initial gas processing capacity that eventually could be increased to ~18 PJ/year (48 TJ/day).

Senex looks undervalued at the moment in my opinion (also Morningstar think it's undervalued) and I think a bit of a bounce is in order. Sounds like a pick for June, assuming the price doesn't go up to much before the end of May.

 

[Parse]

Well June didn't pan out as planned. Actually the month was a bit of a fizzer for most all Energy stocks. A few things have started to stabilise as the end of the month approaches and the sentiment in energy seems to have turned around a little. Senex made a couple of interesting announcements in June including:

Senex Energy Ltd (Senex, ASX: SXY) announced it had agreed a domestic gas sales agreement for up to 10.5 petajoules (PJ) of natural gas with leading glass - packaging manufacturer O-I Australia (on June 11th). However this contract does not come into effect until 2021, so the market wasn't moved much by it.
And on June 17th - Senex and Jemena agree $50 million infrastructure deal. This one looks more interesting but still is a long term outlook within the Senex overall plan. Again not a huge market mover in terms of share price.

That deal is interesting however. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190617/pdf/445wlcxpvfpm29.pdf

I still think the Senex share price is due for an increase and hopefully expect that to be in July, thus it's my pick for the month!

 

[Parse]

Ahh good old Senex. Well actually it hasn't been that good and it's not really that old. However they did release their annual on the 20th and some interesting take outs from this are:

Total production up 43% to 1.2 mmboe:
A near five - fold increase in Surat Basin gas production, with Roma North daily production exceeding 8 terajoules in the fourth quarter

Sales revenue up 34% to $94 million:
Significant production growth and higher realised oil prices

Underlying EBITDAX up 49% to $39 million:
Margin expansion supported by stable oil operating costs

Strong cashflow generation:
$45 million operating cashflow (FY18: $5 million)

Seems to be muddling around the mid 30's still though. Most probably because of the global distaste for the oil/gas markets at the moment. Overall this is a fairly good result IMO and I think it only needs a slight change in sentiment towards the Energy sector. Thus I am picking it to do better in September.

 

[Smurf1976]

with Roma North daily production exceeding 8 terajoules in the fourth quarter

To put that in perspective, on the wholesale spot market that's worth about $63,000 per day.

If they've hedged by whatever means then presumably the price wouldn't be too far from that.

Not huge $ but it's not zero either.

 

[Parse]

Not an awful lot has happened with Senex in the last month yet I still feel it's a little undervalued on the market. A recent notice of Oilex's intention to acquire 27 Petroleum Retention Licenses in the Cooper-Eromanga Acreage arrived late on the 27th so we shall see what the market thinks of that announcement.

Otherwise no news is good news and Senex can still make smal gains during October.