SXE - Southern Cross Electrical Engineering

[finicky]

I wouldn't have my small stake in SXE if it weren't for the ace teamlet here rekindling my interest at a crucial time @Knobby22 @galumay @divs4ever

 

[divs4ever]

I wouldn't have my small stake in SXE if it weren't for the ace teamlet here rekindling my interest at a crucial time @Knobby22 @galumay @divs4ever

i was expecting this to take a hit when the mining boom waned , so far the mining super-cycle has continued , but how long can it last

the M&A activity hints this bull market is near a peak , but is it different this time

this has been a great stock for me ... but several other great stocks have fallen to predators ( the cash is nice but where to park it sensibly )

 

[finicky]

Monthly all data chart of SXE shows it has never been quite a stretched in its history when looking at its momentum indicators.
Time for one of those 'it's gone exponential!' declarations.

No sign of the rally wilting yet though - on a monthly scale. Volume exceptional and fairly full bodied candle for May. Might be a good example of 'the bigger the base, the bigger the rally', as there was a 6 year base leading into this breakout. I didn't spot it.

Looks like there are expectations of a very solid FY24 result?

Held and
Holding

MONTHLY All Data

 

[divs4ever]

Completion of MDE Group acquisition

• Acquisition of MDE Group, a Sydney-based electrical and communications specialist, now completed
• Strategic expansion of SCEE’s east coast service offerings Completion of acquisition Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Limited (“SCEE Group”) is pleased to announce that further to its ASX announcement of 13 May 2024 it has now completed the acquisition of MDE Group Pty Ltd (“MDE”), effective 31 May 2024.
Founded in 2006 and based in Sydney, MDE provides communications, data, and electrical services for construction and fit out projects across a range of sectors including commercial building developments, data centres, and healthcare and transport infrastructure.
The acquisition of an east coast communications specialist aligns with SCEE Group’s strategy to broaden our geographic diversity through expanding our core competencies and adding adjacent and complementary capabilities.
The initial consideration of $5.55m has been paid to the vendors.

Comment

Commenting on the above, SCEE Group Managing Director Graeme Dunn said “I am pleased to confirm the completion of the acquisition of MDE. In addition to broadening our east coast service offerings, the acquisition of MDE increases SCEE Group’s exposure to ongoing work at the Western Sydney International Airport and allows us to target and deliver a greater proportion of our significant pipeline of data centre opportunities.
Our successful acquisitions have been a key component of our growth over recent years and we continue to actively explore a range of further acquisition targets offering increased geographic diversification and new capabilities.”

Authorised for release by Graeme Dunn – SCEE Group Managing Director

i hold SXE

 

[finicky]

Signs that momentum is weakening. This is a weeky chart so the last candle is not updated or complete, but all the candles otherwise over the five weaks are negative in context of an advanced uptrend (in spite of the strong positive volumes) and are signaling a distribution topping out imo.

Held and
Holding

WEEKLY

 

[divs4ever]

am not expecting sub 45 cents ( which would inspire me to add more ) any-time soon
but you never know

 

[galumay]

I doubt it will be sub 45c again unless there is some black swan event, and then it wont matter what bed you have your money under!

 

[divs4ever]

I doubt it will be sub 45c again unless there is some black swan event, and then it wont matter what bed you have your money under!

several possible Black Swans are possible

but the cash is in transit waiting for several takeovers to complete and a couple of positions might face liquidation as well if policies continue on the Woke path

i won't be awash with cash , but several positions are at crazy mark-ups

for instance i don't see TNE going back to $1.10 , MIN below $14 , JYC to 36 cents , APE below $2.50

so several stocks will not be on the shopping list ( or at least i think they won't be )

 

[galumay]

Black swans are possible, but improbably, but if they come few can stomach the blood in the streets and take the opportunity to invest.

Hardly any investors alive have lived thru a real Black Swan event, the bears waiting for one have been pessimistic about all sorts of things for the last 25 years - and it has cost them a fortune.

Best thing we can do is buy good profitable businesses, well run by competent management with sensible capital allocation and low or no debt and if there is a black swan event, they will have the best chance of surviving - and if it doesn't happen they should flourish in the good times!

 

[divs4ever]

Black swans are possible, but improbably, but if they come few can stomach the blood in the streets and take the opportunity to invest.

Hardly any investors alive have lived thru a real Black Swan event, the bears waiting for one have been pessimistic about all sorts of things for the last 25 years - and it has cost them a fortune.

Best thing we can do is buy good profitable businesses, well run by competent management with sensible capital allocation and low or no debt and if there is a black swan event, they will have the best chance of surviving - and if it doesn't happen they should flourish in the good times!

well i could have handled 2020 better but i had liquidity ( some cash but also a useful amount of reverse index funds .. fearing a credit/bank freeze rather than what happened )

but the issue was , i was overwhelmed by targets ( and weird changes , like divs. withheld on the payment date )

am currently mostly in the market but a few stocks are being taken over so there will be cash coming ( whether a black swan or not )

and of course some holdings are at very low entry-points i have several 6+ baggers , several that pay divs. as well

 

[finicky]

Market Matters reply to a member question 22/06/24 comparing IPG and SXE as being in a similar space:

"Hi Scott,
We agree that SXE has run hard and a pullback towards $1.50 would not surprise, i.e. over 10%. However it did upgrade profit guidance in mid-May and we would be buyers of dips as opposed to sellers of strength. We had SXE in this week presenting on their strategy. As for IPG its earnings guidance in late May was more of a ho-hum event, hence we prefer SXE into dips."

Held and
Holding

 

[galumay]

So, based on that, it might go up, might go down or might go sideways.

Hope you are not paying for a sub.

(comparing SXE & IPG is drawing a very long bow IMO!)

 

[finicky]

@galumay you are headstrong and need guidance:

Become a Member - Market Matters

Become a Member Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

 

[galumay]

@finicky, I think we should team up for a subscription service. With your experience with running a boutique micro cap Fund and my talent for picking hopeless #sh1tcos that investors can average down into, we would make a great team. Hit 'em on Twatter, start a Substack, get on some ex-sportsball player's poddy and before you know it, SaaS. (Spruiking as a Service.)

 

[finicky]

@galumay, Lol, I've had many offers cross my desk. Everyone wants in. Does sound like you might strengthen my service's social media presence though.

 

[divs4ever]

SCEE awarded Collie Battery Switchyard works

• SCEE Electrical awarded by Synergy the Switchyard works for the Collie Battery Energy Storage System
• Switchyard works value circa $50m
• Takes total value of awards for the Collie Battery project to circa $210m Award
Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Limited (“SCEE Group”) is pleased to announce that its subsidiary SCEE Electrical has been awarded the Collie Battery Energy Storage System 330kV Switchyard Package, as a contract variation to the Balance of Plant Contract with Synergy for the 500MW/2000 MWh Collie Battery Energy Storage System (“CBESS 1”) that was recently announced to the ASX on 6 May 2024.
The contract variation value is circa $50 million, and the works under the variation are scheduled for completion in the second quarter of calendar year 2025.The 330kV Switchyard Package will include civil and structural works, 330kV overhead line gantries,installation, testing and commissioning support of 330kV/33kV transformers, circuit breakers, surge arrestors, current/voltage transformers, a 330kV control room and a communications and SCADA system, all tying into the Western Power network.

Comment

Commenting on the award, SCEE Group Managing Director Graeme Dunn said “I am very pleased that Synergy has awarded us this further package of works at what will eventually be one of the largest battery energy storage systems in Australia.

This brings the total value of work for us on this project to approximately $210m already, and I note there are many further battery projects to come here in Western Australia and in the rest of the country to support Australia reaching its net zero emissions targets.”

Authorised for release by Graeme Dunn – SCEE Group Managing Director


i hold SXE

 

[galumay]

Not huge in the scheme of things, but no doubt will help the share price!

 

[divs4ever]

well it does hint at future capability ( assuming successful completion )

stuff like that sends PME into orbit as a ridiculous example

so the question is , how far into the future are investors looking

after all depending on battery costs , many remote worksites should consider an adequate back-up of power

could be a blip or a major trend

that is why i was watching AVL with interest ( and their battery tech )

 

[finicky]

Proliferation of 'Battery Energy Storage', another fuzzy notion to tack on to 'A1 Data Centres' ravenous electricity appetite, EV Charging Stations, and 'Electrification of Things'. I casually toss out such terms at all the black tie dinner parties I attend. SXE holders are at the cutting edge of societal transformation. i.e. we're gonna make piles of money in this racket.

 

[divs4ever]

Proliferation of 'Battery Energy Storage', another fuzzy notion to tack on to 'A1 Data Centres' ravenous electricity appetite, EV Charging Stations, and 'Electrification of Things'. I casually toss out such terms at all the black tie dinner parties I attend. SXE holders are at the cutting edge of societal transformation. i.e. we're gonna make piles of money in this racket.
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on remote sites ( mostly mines ) yes

elsewhere , well maybe the fix is already in ( big contracts and budget blow-outs )