- Joined
- 5 March 2008
- Posts
- 951
- Reactions
- 141
Apparently you see that from early 2013 period the deficit got larger too. On whose chart? Not the one I posted. The size of the deficit was shrinking. And yet the Australian dollar fell. How could you conjure this statement?
1. Did you look at all the documents and references - supplied by others - who confirmed that what I was saying all along was accurate?
If you had a loan when inflation was high, interest rates were high.
Taking out a loan when rates and wages growth are high, followed by a trend of falling rates and wages growth is one thing. Painful at the time but pretty soon it gets relatively easy to repay the loan.
It's a very different story if you take out a loan when rates are low and then they go up unless there is corresponding wages growth. In that situation you're pretty much stuffed.
It comes down to probability. The future is uncertain but looking at where we are today there is a definite risk that we see a rise in interest rates which exceeds wages growth, and a relatively low probability that interest rates fall significantly. That's not based on any serious analysis, simply on noting that rates are very low by historical standards - how much lower can they really go?
It's like saying that your fridge is struggling to stay cold in January in Perth or Adelaide in a house without air-conditioning. Not ideal but things can't get much worse really so if it's just coping then the odds are it will be fine in due course. But it's very different if the fridge isn't coping in Hobart in July, since it's almost certainly going to get hotter at some point. Same scenario for anyone buying their first home etc when rates are very low - there's a very real possibility that they'll see a big rise in rates at some point before the debt is repaid versus not much room for them to go down.
Who is talking about the downtrodden? How do you define 'downtrodden'?Julia,
Actually, that is exactly what I thought government welfare was all about, to help the down trodden.
Are you prepared to consider that if there are no consequences to making rash decisions which fail, allowing someone to receive taxpayer funded benefits 'in compensation', we will not be breeding a society of people who value personal initiative and sense of responsibility?Not everyone makes the correct choices in life, people make mistakes. They are the people that I want my taxes to go to.
Yes, they can at times. But it wouldn't take much research into each individual to discover the path that led to their application for welfare.How we separate those that are the bludgers on the system from those that tried and failed is the hard part. Both can present as the same.
I have already acknowledged the great opportunity of property investment during the high inflation period.Julia, my point is that there is less space for error for the young today compared to the baby boomer generation. We were the lucky ones with relatively cheap housing, free tertiary education, and easily obtained ongoing employment, plus the helping hand of inflation in paying off our early loans.
But why should we extend that to the people who, eg, through greed put most of their investable capital into some super dupa speculative stock which bombs, rather than take a more realistic approach
Are you prepared to consider that if there are no consequences to making rash decisions which fail, allowing someone to receive taxpayer funded benefits 'in compensation', we will not be breeding a society of people who value personal initiative and sense of responsibility?
Julia, you are going to extremes,
So the type of people, ordinary hard working people, who thought they were paying for savvy advice from Storm, then lost the lot, house, super etc, you would deny the pension because they made a mistake (ie conned)??
The corner store owner who worked hard all his life developing the business, only to have a supermarket open up around the corner and put him out of business, you would deny the dole (now in his 50's and penniless), then deny the pension, because he made a mistake somewhere along the line in persisting with his store until it's bankruptcy.
Some how you managed to take young people that made simple mistakes and turn them into "greed with their investable capital" and "those who inherit money, then blow it, or win Lotto and do likewise". Please bring it back and look at average ordinary mistakes that are much more common than those.
Andrew Forrest made a rash decision to spend billions of dollars on his own railway and building the company. It could still all fall to pieces. If he loses the lot, does he deserve the pension, if the correct age and asset criteria? Absolutely!!
If there was nothing to fall back on for those who try and fail, then everybody would play safe. Risk taking to advance the economy (via building a company with director guarantees) would go out the window.
We appear again to be drifting from superannuation to all forms of welfare.
SP,
I agree, let's get back to super, sorry for going OT, just had to reply to Julia.
I see the greatest problem with super is the constant tinkering of it by governments!!!
How can anyone be assured of anything regarding retirement savings in this form, when we now have the treasurer admitting they are going to change things again ie retirement ages to start with (from Q&A questioning).
I see the greatest problem with super is the constant tinkering of it by governments!!!
How can anyone be assured of anything regarding retirement savings in this form, when we now have the treasurer admitting they are going to change things again ie retirement ages to start with (from Q&A questioning).
I've not said any such thing. What I would like to see happening is - instead of the government being the proverbial ambulance at the bottom of the cliff - to instead be encouraging people to achieve a basic level of financial literacy so they are not conned. I agree with the government's philosophy of government being there to do for people what they cannot do for themselves.So the type of people, ordinary hard working people, who thought they were paying for savvy advice from Storm, then lost the lot, house, super etc, you would deny the pension because they made a mistake (ie conned)??
(Sigh.) Such emotive illustrations. No, of course I wouldn't deny him the dole, neither would it happen at least in the foreseeable future. But unless the ever increasing welfare bill is better managed, then the day might come when that dole, even now imo not enough to live on, will not be available.The corner store owner who worked hard all his life developing the business, only to have a supermarket open up around the corner and put him out of business, you would deny the dole (now in his 50's and penniless), then deny the pension, because he made a mistake somewhere along the line in persisting with his store until it's bankruptcy.
Andrew Forrest is a great example to look at. I understand his early life was a far cry from his present success.Andrew Forrest made a rash decision to spend billions of dollars on his own railway and building the company. It could still all fall to pieces. If he loses the lot, does he deserve the pension, if the correct age and asset criteria? Absolutely!!
Good point. But there's a difference between doing something foolhardy and reckless and taking a carefully calculated risk.If there was nothing to fall back on for those who try and fail, then everybody would play safe. Risk taking to advance the economy (via building a company with director guarantees) would go out the window.
Yes, and those people who are well educated, have had good jobs with high earning, yet just decline to even think about how they might look after themselves in retirement.I think the issue is arising, from those who want to fund the welfare, by taking from those that have sacrificed to save and be self funded.
We are not talking about the 10,000 that have taken the pizz and put $5m+ in super.
We are talking about the vast majority of self funded, ex working class people that have probably sold all their investments, to put the money in super and be self funded.
Correct. And this has already started. Self funded retirees who previously qualified for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card which provides some concessions with electricity, rego, PBS etc, will from next year have any income from Super included in the means test of $50,000 p.a. So here's one of the first disincentives for making the effort to be self funded if you're doubtful about it in the first place.So true, and it is more worrying for those that saw it as a way to live independently.
They trusted that due to the rules governing super, if they reached a pre set goal, their retirement would in their minds be secure.
Then they get the government, the papers and everyone else saying "your o.k give us some of it".
Agreed.Again I'm not talking about people with stupid amounts in super.
I'm talking about people that may have downsized, sold a business, salary sacrificed and lived of the wifes wage, sold an investment property, normal people.
The hard thing is most of these people would have been disciplined savers working toward that goal.
Now when they have achieved it everyone wants to change the goal posts, they are now not in a position to change their situation, they're retired.
A bit like getting a fixed price contract, then the supplier turning around and saying "no we've changed our minds, you will pay more".
I'm sure most people would kick up.
+1.Limiting lump sum withdrawals also has to be brought in, otherwise how is the system supposed to help alleviate the cost of the aged pension? Why should I help fund a persons super balance only to have them use it to pay off personal debt like a mortgage, buy a new car, go on a holiday and then expect the full pension? The majority of people able to access their super tax some form of lump sum, so it's not a minority doing it issue.
Remember that for every $ of super tax expenditures there has to be a $ of increased taxation elsewhere, or a $ in reduced spending on other services.
People are still being weened off the pension mentality. Once we reach the stage where someone's whole working life has had CS paid into a fund then the pension should be a thing of the past. It has been running for about 22 years so the magic of compounding hasn't had time to work even if you started in 1992. Try 50 years of CS and a sizable sum will be available for both the financially savvy and the financial dumbo's. Based on this days Superann. structure of course.
I think it boils down to what one prepares to have as a retirement income. Now more than ever people have control over their Super nest egg. Most mates at my workplace think Super will look after itself and accept the default investment option which just happens to be low risk low return. Less than 40 years old and the care factor is zero.I think it boils down to what you consider an adequate retirement income.
Accurate data is extremely important when hypothesising, albeit conservatively, on future outcomes. Below is the average weekly earnings according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics data Nov. 2013.On the east cost over 2/3 of people earn less that $52K a year
That is odd. I have had a 4% increase per year for the last three years with the company offering same again for next three years. Right across the board people earn more or less. For me it was a matter of changing employers.Personally I think 3% income growth is maybe unrealistic - I've not had a pay rise near that for nigh on a decade.
Yes yes yes. The secret is that people have the choice of creating so much more inside Super via choice of Super Fund, Salary Sacrifice, Personal Contributions and Investment Options. Outside of Super people have their own financial goals or not.Should super only be about providing a decent to basic level of income - certainly better than the pension - of say $35K for a single and $50K for a couple.
Accurate data is extremely important when hypothesising, albeit conservatively, on future outcomes. Below is the average weekly earnings according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics data Nov. 2013.
$1400/week * 52 weeks is $72800/year both sexes.
I think it boils down to what one prepares to have as a retirement income. Now more than ever people have control over their Super nest egg. Most mates at my workplace think Super will look after itself and accept the default investment option which just happens to be low risk low return. Less than 40 years old and the care factor is zero.
Accurate data is extremely important when hypothesising, albeit conservatively, on future outcomes. Below is the average weekly earnings according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics data Nov. 2013.
$1400/week * 52 weeks is $72800/year both sexes.
That is odd. I have had a 4% increase per year for the last three years with the company offering same again for next three years. Right across the board people earn more or less. For me it was a matter of changing employers.
Yes yes yes. The secret is that people have the choice of creating so much more inside Super via choice of Super Fund, Salary Sacrifice, Personal Contributions and Investment Options. Outside of Super people have their own financial goals or not.
The most recent median income figure I can get is ~47K.
So if we assume a 45 year working life, 3% income growth, 6% earning, 2.5% inflation, 9.25% SGC, then based on that and no extra contributions over a working life a final balance of $1,533,508 or 505K in current $$.
At a 6% yield that should produce a $30K income which is around 8K higher than the current single rate pension or an increase of 36%.
The fact is less than half the population will achieve that kid of balance without extra contributions. Anyone on less than $35K a year will struggle to have a super balance that can realistically provide more than the current pension - likely around 30% of the working population.
I honestly don't think that the Government should be providing expensive tax expenditures to provide for much above that kind of income.
A 650K single RBL and 1M combined RBL is around where I think Govt support should be capped. If people want a retirement with overseas travel and the luxuries of life then save outside super to fund that, but for me I feel super should be purely to provide a slightly better life than what the current pension offers. It's already an expensive policy with $30-35B in tax expenditures growing at 12% and $20B+ in fees to managed it. A policy that costs more than the problem it's designed to resolve is not in my view has not been targeting to problem very well
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?