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SUN - Suncorp Group

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Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Of course there could always be the possibility of a T/O?

It happened to SGB so why not Suncorp?
Even if a company took over Suncorp, they might only be interested in the Insurance game that Suncorp has exposure to and sell of the rest...or vise versa.

IMO though, I think WBC is the pick of the bunch
or even BOQ has held up better than most.

ps, id have said $8.90ish should hold for Suncorps sp.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

ROE said:
I got some more at $10 last week, look like I acted too soon
But I have another order in already for $8.50 if it dropped that far.

100K of SUN will do me nicely in 5-10 years from now
Click to expand...

Roe ,hope you got some of the $8.35 that was being offered earlier on this morning .Div yield up around 12%:
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

justjohn said:
Roe ,hope you got some of the $8.35 that was being offered earlier on this morning .Div yield up around 12%:
Click to expand...

Hehe only if earnings is sustainable

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 59.8 114.2 126.2 137.2
DPS 107.0 107.0 107.0 111.0

Also whenever they make the below annoucements, often its the opposite, dont know why though!

thx

MS
 

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Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

It's very tempting at $7.
Some people think this could go belly up though ?

The next divvy is March. If anyone hears anything, please.

It looks like MQG and SUN are copping it hard today.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Dam slaughter house my last position is put in is $7.55 .... whether it fill or not is another story.

that is it it could be a very expensive lesson for me but I have to stay with my conviction
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

It is nothing short of unbelievable. From +$20 to $7 range. Insane.

I am still holding from around $18 - for better or worse. I thought they had reached a turning point recently but I was wrong.

I am debating about buying more - both for long term investment and averaging down.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway


It might pay to have a read of today's Australian before buying.
In my long bitter experience of such things, "averaging down" has almost always resulted in a " long term investment".

 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I see QBE is looking at Suncorp what we need to know if Suncorp will rise or just go down low enough for a take over??
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I have a lot at stake with SUN
start to buy in at 12-14 and average down since then

so I went through their book again.. Development and construction lending increase a fair bit but they reassure all their loan is backed by hard asset.

With Raptis gone belly up I keep an eye on how much Suncorp can recover
if they can recover their money then the fear around Suncorp bad loan my be all nothing but fear..

their long term bad debt (10 years plus) also give me assurance these guys don't do stupid thing and their bad debt will be in line with their previous years

Their worse period is 1998-2000 with 1.41%-1.68%.

So clearly there are down side to this stock if things happen outside their normal long term trend but there is upside too if their bad loan fall in line with their long term trend and there may not be major storm like they face last year in QLD.

I say 50/50 chance it goes one way or the other but a lot of that has already factor into the current price ... so I'm game enough to take a stand on SUN
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Glen48 said:
I see QBE is looking at Suncorp what we need to know if Suncorp will rise or just go down low enough for a take over??
Click to expand...

They cant really take over without the board approval, the majority of the share holder are retailer like IAG .. without the board recommendation there is no way in hell they can take over

so the price has to be right and the right price is $15 I be happy with that
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

oldblue said:
It might pay to have a read of today's Australian before buying.
In my long bitter experience of such things, "averaging down" has almost always resulted in a " long term investment".

Click to expand...

Yeah I know. My long term is 30 years though - a second superannuation, if you will. So I don't mind averaging down so long as the business is suitable and the price is reasonable ... and I'm still deciding.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

If the price is good enough and the market is sick enough it won't matter what the directors recommend.
I would think that a lot less than $15 would suffice in today's market but then I'm not a SUN shareholder.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

justjohn said:
Roe ,hope you got some of the $8.35 that was being offered earlier on this morning .Div yield up around 12%:
Click to expand...
If you bought at a higher price, quoting the dividend percentage is cold comfort I would have thought. You're still only getting the same dollar amount on your original investment, and have a capital loss to show for it.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

oldblue said:
If the price is good enough and the market is sick enough it won't matter what the directors recommend.
I would think that a lot less than $15 would suffice in today's market but then I'm not a SUN shareholder.
Click to expand...

most of them probably don't even have a shares account and dont even know what share price suncorp is except they get their dividend cheque every 6 months and annual report.

most of them got a hold of the shares from their membership associated with Suncorp in the old day when its own by QLD government.

so in order for them to sell their shares suncorp board will write them a letter and advice them to sell their shares else they just ignore all the hu ha that going on the market and no one can buy those shares and no take over can be possible ...

QBE walk away from IAG for this same reason majority of the share holder are retail so without the board agree on the price it will be a nightmare for QBE to make a hostile bid.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Julia said:
If you bought at a higher price, quoting the dividend percentage is cold comfort I would have thought. You're still only getting the same dollar amount on your original investment, and have a capital loss to show for it.
Click to expand...

share price movement doesn't bother me too much I'm very calm and I do sleep sound at night ... I have no margin loan to meet and no debt to pay
so I can be very flexible and make as much commitment and hold as long as I like.

the only regret is I may move too early or too late but short of the company going under price drop to $5 doesn't bother me once I bought the shares.

As long as the cheque comes twice a year at 5%-6% yield I'm more than grateful.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway


I kind of understand the mindset where you are happy to have a paper loss if you are in for the long-term, but what I don't understand is your acceptance that the dividend yield will remain at 5-6% of the old price/current price given the situation SUN is in. There is a reason why the sp is falling.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway



I wouldn't underestimate the propensity of shareholders, even normally passive retail types who may not have had to put up hard cash for their shares, to suddenly take an interest if an attractive offer is made.
In today's circumstances, cash in hand may be a bit too hard to turn down.

 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway


There are many reasons why price rise and fall but that how the market work
long term it smooth out.

50 cents dividend I expect a year from this stock.. at $10 a shares that 5% dividend. Right now it's paying 107 and it predicting next year it paying 107 but I play it safe and accept 50 cents.

Unless it lose a large amount of money and not profitable I cant see why they cant maintain the dividend payout..look at their pass 10 years dividend history and their stability.

But should thing improve and they maintain 107 dividend then I get a nice 10% full franked dividend each year and don't care if price of the stock move from then on.

Should sh*t happen then I lose my capital but that a decision you make when you buy any asset
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

They have to out with something like that don't they? else they scare stock may free fall

http://news.theage.com.au/business/suncorp-reconfirms-earnings-guidance-20080918-4j9t.html

I go with the annual report and it also restate it here so I hope they dont feed me the wrong information

"We have a high quality consumer portfolio and further de risked our book by selling the credit card portfolio in February this year," he said.

This means Suncorp's non-performing loans have historically been higher than its competitors, but its write-offs as a proportion of total lending have been around two-thirds of the average of major Australian banks, Mr Mulcahy said.
 
Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

ROE said:
They have to out with something like that don't they? else they scare stock may free fall

http://news.theage.com.au/business/suncorp-reconfirms-earnings-guidance-20080918-4j9t.html
Click to expand...

They have some good long term funding too ...

Suncorp said it was on target to achieve its funding requirements for 2008/099

91 years into the future, not bad

I do like Suncorp (else I wouldn't have bought at $18), I'm just nervous about where the bottom is. If it drops sub $5 something is really crazy. I know it's no BNB but BNB went from $20+ to sub $1 so it can happen.
 
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