SUL - Super Retail Group

[tinhat]

I've never owned this stock. After a fairly large correction from $14 down to $7, and after a rebound, the chart is coming up as a buy on lots of technical analysis indicators on monthly, weekly and daily charts. From a FA point of view however, the business doesn't look like its heading in the right direction. I see that they are looking to concentrate on the leisure sector for future growth and they are looking to relaunch Rays Outdoors, are trialing different store formats, different house brand strategy and are planning on opening 50 new leisure stores.

I've just had a very quick glance over the 2015 half year results presentation. I do like the level of straight-forward detail and analysis they have provided in presenting their financial performance.

Is anyone following this stock that has more background on where they think this business is going?

 

[galumay]

Is anyone following this stock that has more background on where they think this business is going?

I still think they are expensive, but I like the business mix, its a bit skewed towards discretionary spending obviously, so tight times in tight times so to speak! Management do seem to have a handle on the issues in the businesses and appear to have moved positively to address them. For mine the debt is high, ROE & ROC are not great, operating margins are ok for retail. Its one of those companies I look at occasionally, but it has never attracted me enough to buy.

The branding is an unquantified part of the business, all those names are well known, prominent and well patronised from what I see round the place. They do all have other strong brands in competition though, so margins unlikely to increase.

 

[ROE]

I've just had a very quick glance over the 2015 half year results presentation. I do like the level of straight-forward detail and analysis they have provided in presenting their financial performance.

Is anyone following this stock that has more background on where they think this business is going?

I like the straight talking too, very honest and straight shooter.

I am not big into details figure so I cant provide that I am more looking at the business and its product mix
and model and I like what I see so I just get on board.

This business can potential capture the camping, outdoor and sport market just like bunnings for hardware.

most of the stuff they sell technically not really discretionary (some where in between that and must have), most people has some sort of hobbies or leisure activities that these guys stocks good.

When you play soccer or basket ball or cricket you aren't going to skim on buying shoes and gears for them
nor fishing and camping and if you own a car, you going to buy the accessories and parts for them when you need them.

I am into most of this stuff so I can sort of understand the buyer mentality on their products

I Spent thousands on sport gears and outdoor activities because something I love doing and I just don't hold back on them where as I hold back in other area.

 

[greggles]

Super Retail Group punished this morning after releasing their half year results to 31 December 2017. SUL is currently down $1.30 to $6.90, a decline of around 16%.

I'm wondering if this might have been a bit of an over-reaction. Sales were $1.3 billion and net profit after tax was $72.2 million. The company also announced an interim dividend of 21.5c.

A largely flat result, no doubt, but I am surprised at the market reaction which was pretty harsh. The share price has now climbed back to $7 since I started this post, so maybe it will recover further this afternoon?

 

[notting]

There were higher expectations on growth and growth outlook, but looks like pretty fair price to me about here.
Bounced off this level in December 2014 so watch out if it breaks that in a sustained way.
Earnings reactions over the last few, and this, reporting season have tended to be over reactive and turned out to be opportunities. That could be due to excessive risk and leverage at this stage of the cycle.
Traditionally it's good to wait a few days to make sure the selling is over.

 

[BlindSquirrel]

They've been punished again lately. I bought a parcel at $7.60 and am tossing up whether to cut bait or buy the dip. The financials from last June were ok (profit ratios up, liquidity ok, cash flow fine), p/e multiple is on the lower end of historical average.
Why does the market dislike them? It's been in a steady downtrend since the SP fell off a cliff in October. Is it all due to the lack of a christmas rally?

 

[bigdog]

HIGH TODAY $8.54 AND LOW OF $7.72
FINISHED AT $7.84

M Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/12/why-the-super-retail-share-price-jumped-over-8-higher-today/


Why the Super Retail share price jumped over 8% higher today

The Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL) share price had been a strong performer in early trade on Tuesday following the release of a couple of key announcements.

In early trade the retail group’s shares were up over 8.5% to $8.54, but at the time of writing are now up just 2% to $8.01.

What was announced?
Starting with the negatives, this morning Super Retail advised that it will make back payments to retail managers after completing a comprehensive review of employment arrangements across the business.

The review identified an underpayment of overtime and some allowances to retail managers. As a result, Super Retail will recognise approximately $32 million pre-tax to cover the estimated cost of back payments to retail managers for the six financial years up to and including FY 2018.

In light of these serious underpayments, Super Retail’s managing director and chief executive officer, Peter Birtles, has offered to resign and the board has accepted. He will leave the company ahead of schedule on February 20 and be replaced by Anthony Heraghty. Mr Birtles was already due to retire in March and be replaced by Mr Heraghty.

On a normal day this news might have been enough to sink a share price, but fortunately for shareholders a positive trading update has offset this negative news.

According to the update, the company expects to report total sales of $1.4 billion in the first half, up 6% on the prior corresponding period. Unaudited EBITDA was $166.2 million during the half, up 11.3% on the prior corresponding period.

All segments delivered growth during the period. The Auto segment posted 2.5% EBIT growth, the Outdoor segment achieved 39.6% EBIT growth, and the Sports segment saw EBIT increase 5.2%.

A key driver of growth was its online operations. Management explained that it was “pleased to maintain strong growth in our online sales as we leveraged the re-platforming of all of our websites. Online sales, as a proportion of overall sales, increased in all businesses and for Rebel now represents 11 per cent of overall sales.”

Pleasingly, the overall strong form has continued so far in the second half with management advising that the majority of its businesses have delivered positive sales growth.

“Like for like sales growth has been circa 4 per cent in Supercheap Auto over the first six weeks of the second half. BCF has delivered circa 8 per cent like for like sales growth over the same period, while Macpac has been circa 2 per cent below pcp, as the business is cycling a significant clearance program in the prior comparative period. Like for like sales growth in Rebel has been 8 per cent over the six weeks.”

 

[BlindSquirrel]

I should have bought the dip...

 

[BlindSquirrel]

I reckon it might be getting near time to sell this one...

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Super Retail told investors on Thursday that its Supercheap and Rebel stores had also recorded growth in sales this year. In the past five weeks alone, Supercheap’s sales grew 7.5 per cent.

The company’s Supercheap Auto and BCF stores hold all the essentials a doomsday prepper needs, while Rebel Sports has benefited from consumers loading up on home fitness gear as gyms shut down.

- the SP has plummeted along with most 'discretionary retailers'; if the above is correct, then a fall from $9 to $4 in the last 6-8 weeks could be overdone?

 

[rederob]

Super Retail told investors on Thursday that its Supercheap and Rebel stores had also recorded growth in sales this year. In the past five weeks alone, Supercheap’s sales grew 7.5 per cent.

The company’s Supercheap Auto and BCF stores hold all the essentials a doomsday prepper needs, while Rebel Sports has benefited from consumers loading up on home fitness gear as gyms shut down.

- the SP has plummeted along with most 'discretionary retailers'; if the above is correct, then a fall from $9 to $4 in the last 6-8 weeks could be overdone?

SUL has been on my watchlist for the last year. Never grabbed it as I thought JBH was better, before it went ballistically high.
Anyhow, I am taking the simpleton's approach to investing.
Step one: is the share price lower than any time in the first quarter of 2009 (ie, 6 months post-Lehmans (GFC) collapse?
Step2: is the company materially ahead of its peers from a growth perspective since then?
Step 3: can the company quickly clear its debt burden to deliver positive cashflows?

Anything more than that hurts my brain!

 

[over9k]

So here's one that seems obvious in hindsight:

Chip shortage = new car shortage = used car (and thus used car maintenance) boom.

It formed a beautiful wedge & everything

 

[systematic]

So here's one that seems obvious in hindsight:

View attachment 123900

Chip shortage = new car shortage = used car (and thus used car maintenance) boom.

It formed a beautiful wedge & everything

I bought before the crash ~Oct 19...so am only up just over 20% on it. Will continue to hold for now

 

[over9k]

Yeah based on the basic chart I've drawn I'm not keen to buy now. The only question I have is how long this chip shortage is going to continue for (which is actually quite a while).

Thing is, it's likely already been priced in as said chip shortage is well & truly yesterday's news now.

 

[Ferret]

Chip shortage = new car shortage = used car (and thus used car maintenance) boom.

I think this is only part of the story. I think the business is being boosted more by the overseas travel ban.

Their BCF, Rebel Sport & Macpac businesses will all be booming due to people spending holiday time in Australia.

 

[over9k]

Hmm not sure how much that'd be contributing ferret but it'd certainly be contributing something to it, yes

 

[rederob]

I think this is only part of the story. I think the business is being boosted more by the overseas travel ban.

Their BCF, Rebel Sport & Macpac businesses will all be booming due to people spending holiday time in Australia.

COMMSEC rates it as a "buy" with a $15 target price.

 

[sptrawler]

I think this is only part of the story. I think the business is being boosted more by the overseas travel ban.

Their BCF, Rebel Sport & Macpac businesses will all be booming due to people spending holiday time in Australia.

I'm with you on that Ferret.

 

[BlindSquirrel]

COMMSEC rates it as a "buy" with a $15 target price.

They must be basing that on the Fib

 

[IvoryWolf]

Incredible to see that this stock hasn't received any attention in this forum for the past couple of years, but I suspect that this may change in the near future, considering the support level that has developed as shown in the chart below.

For further discussion, check out the weekly chart review at



where you'll find details at the timestamp located within the description under the video. Enjoy!