Sub 10c medium term trading strategy

[tech/a]

PAV
This is the sort of trading which is close to pure momentum.
Pretty well most discussion here has been on entry.
The real money is made on the exit.

Trailing a wide stop will frustrate you to death!

 

[odds-on]

I've only been briefly following this thread, but the idea that you could hold these over a medium time frame, without the underlying business at least becoming profitable and still make money seems like wishful thinking. From my own anecdotal observations, these stocks can go up 100% based on an announcement of not much substance (GoConnect for example). Invariably, reading the other forum you'll see plenty of true believers pushing the stock up, eventually they get bored and move on to the next big thing.

If you want something passive, trading pico-cap capital killers isn't the way to do it.

Hi Pav,

Anthony Bolton, the Fidelity fund manager, whose approach was FA based uses TA in his investment decisions. For large cap companies, he advises that due the sheer number of factors that affect the valuation of a large cap, the retail investor is at a great disadvantage and is probably better off using TA to enter/exit. For a less active approach than your current approach, why not just consider a large cap TA system?

I found this a refreshing read - “Why I am not a value investor” - http://guythomas.org.uk/blog/?e=27

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Good read.

 

[pavilion103]

Updates. Summary plus open trades.

CVN was stopped out on 7/11/13 for a $456 loss. The only closed position.

Updates to the pending order setups will be posted over the weekend too.

I am considering having fewer setups and being more selective. Also considering capping the portfolio at a certain number of stocks at any one time. Maybe 5 or 6.

 

[pavilion103]

The only active setups are

Setup 4: 0.021, 0.012
Setup 13: 0.025, 0.015

The rest have been cancelled. Some put back on the watch list.

 

[pavilion103]

This is the type of setup that I have found to be very effective in my testing.
This is one that has recently moved - SEN
I like to see some movement. Then price flattens and a range forms.
I then like to enter on the break above this range.
This will often allow us to capture the first BIG break, without waiting until after it has occurred.

There are others like this. Let's see if we can identify some in real time.

 

[Rider]

Real time, does this look like a good setup? from 3 to 5c last week, huge volume on Friday to cap off a massive week.

Good time to enter or missed the run?

Can post the Ticker if allowed, not sure on the rules

Daily


weekly

 

[pavilion103]

Too late now.

But an example of what I'm looking for.

I've seen many similar ones take off.

Less than 1c on the initial risk.

For me these are my favourites.

 

[pavilion103]

Oh sorry that's a different one!

I was looking over that stock earlier. It's on the watch list.

Admittedly I would not have got on this one in real time. There was no setup that I liked. So wouldn't have entered it.

Nice profit for those who did though!

 

[Rider]

This is what SEN looked like when it first took off. It then traded for 6 or 7 weeks between .02 and .028 and now at
.056
out of interest would this have been a setup you like?



You are saying you want to catch these early but I'm not sure how you can identify which ones will take off and which ones will fail. Do you look for conformation of buying in the charts?
It seems to me you just have to trust your instincts, do a bit of research into what your investing in. Have a solid trading plan and have a go.

 

[Rider]

Do you look for conformation of buying in the charts?

I then like to enter on the break above this range.

Sorry pav just went back over your post, this is exactly what you are doing... oops

 

[pavilion103]

GRR this one is annoying.

ADO.

This is the chart exactly as it was in my watch list last week. Untouched the analysis since then.

I didn't include it due to the number of setups we already had.

May have been a handy addition had I taken it!

 

[pavilion103]

SETUP

 

[pavilion103]

SETUP

 

[pavilion103]

TRIGGERED

 

[pavilion103]

Interesting

ADO - the one I said we missed out on. Reversed after hitting 10.5c. Will be interesting to follow.

SEN - the case study above also. Continues to move up. Hopefully we can get on one like this. If we were in it would be at around $2,500 profit at the moment.

 

[pavilion103]

Guys, from next Tuesday I will be in India for 2 weeks.

Luckily this strategy doesn't require a whole lot of stop movement.

I have decided to simply let whatever active trades are in the portfolio run after next Monday evening's adjustments.

I won't be checking anything while over there so hopefully a pleasant surprise upon return home. I find with these ones anyway looking at prices day to day is so tedious. But looking at them after 2 weeks could be quite exciting. Obviously it's necessary to update daily usually. Just not terrible exciting.

 

[Country Lad]

From the SEN thread as this post is more about the sub 10 cents than SEN:

Is anyone else in this one? If so why? FA or TA?

Three reasons:

First. Normally I don’t go much for the “cheapies”. Although I am quite happy with the system I have been successfully using for yonks, I followed your sub 10 cents game for a little while and noticed that there were quite a few cheapies starting to wake up.

Secondly, IT was one of the sectors very buoyant. Both the NASDAQ and our XIJ was rising nicely.

Thirdly was TA. SEN had my favourite setup at around 2.7 cents and the break from the P&F pattern was too tempting and I bought a smaller than my normal parcel at 3 cents, expecting to sell soon after or be stopped out. Still in and now a bit annoyed I did not buy my normal sized parcel, but I normally don’t indulge in “cheapies”.

There were clear buy signals at breaks through 3.5 and 5.2 which unfortunately did not tempt me either.





There were a few others I played with and either sold or was stopped out or didn’t buy which had similar setups: AUQ, DTQ (which is again building to a similar setup if it breaks 6.3), TAW, IMC (probably the lowest priced one I have ever bought), and PAB.

Pav, even though my setups are very different to yours and I set stops differently, this topic has certainly made me reconsider my aversion to “cheapies” after playing with a few. It could be fun playing with these.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[tech/a]

250% right there with SEN

It's fun when you get on one.
When you really trade them you'd e belting the two
Clear pyramid plays.

Sure you get stopped out of many ( see the other exercise on keeping
Your capital ---- not you CL you know how )

Get one of these and it can be fun and lucrative.

 

[pavilion103]

250% right there with SEN It's fun when you get on one. When you really trade them you'd e belting the two Clear pyramid plays. Sure you get stopped out of many ( see the other exercise on keeping Your capital ---- not you CL you know how ) Get one of these and it can be fun and lucrative.

Exactly my thoughts. Clear pyramid opportunities to hammer on that chart. I will be looking to do that in this exercise too.

Hit them hard and really make the winners count!

Will be interested in the stats of this exercise when we have a decent sample size over 6 months to a year.