Strategies for 50% system e.g. Anzac Day 2up

[So_Cynical]

And what happens if these "quality stocks" fall further after you buy? Do you keep buying all the way down? Do you hold on tight because they'll come back?

That's where the "plan" and discipline comes into it, my policy on averaging is to do it only once, and only after the stock has fallen at least 12% as long as my confidence in the stock is still ok...every stock (except 1) ive done this with has come back. (excluding current trades)

With my trading plan im buying falling or fallen stocks, thus i avoid top buying and so its impossible to keep buying all the way down because im not buying tops...and my 1 average down policy is more a repositioning of the cost base of the stocks i will hold after taking profit and establishing a free carry component.

 

[johenmo]

Therefore the probability of getting a tail after a run of 7 consecutive heads = 1 - 0.5^8 = 0.996 ie 99.6%

Because each throw of two coins is INDEPENDENT - previous throws have NO effect on the outcome - the above doesn't stand true. Yes, getting 7 consecutive heads is very low probability but it doesn't increase the chance of tails on the next throw. What is least likely is 8 consecutive heads. Sounds like it's contradictory but it's not. In simple terms, forget the past. I remember discussing this in maths at uni decades ago!

 

[Chris45]

Because each throw of two coins is INDEPENDENT - previous throws have NO effect on the outcome - the above doesn't stand true.

OK, I might have got that wrong. Long time since I did this probability stuff – another good reason for staying well away from casinos!

So, if you’re tossing a coin 8 times and the probability of 8 consecutive heads = 0.004, then what’s the probability of 7 consecutive heads followed by a tail, since that’s the only other possible outcome given that the 7 heads are already in place?

 

[Chris45]

Never mind. I worked it out.

 

[private parts]

so woot ez the ezest way to play 2 up and win just do you bet all heads evens or tails?
Joost wondering? I kent spill will cous Im fron en zed.