with tax returns due to be lodged by april 15, there are some whom believe the next round of bad tides are being with held till after lodgement.
Stock market doomsayers running wild
- Thread starter kincella
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with tax returns due to be lodged by april 15, there are some whom believe the next round of bad tides are being with held till after lodgement.
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Yep, that's what exactly happened right now. Every "supposed to be" insolvent banks are basically hoarding these taxpayer money to maintain their reserve requirement and as provision for further loan losses.
IN THEORY, these banks have more than enough capital right now to lend more money out to worthly borrowers. Unfortunately, the negative sentiments of these borrowers are forcing them to reduce spending and increase saving, thereby, reducing the demand for loans from the banks.
So how in the world would government help to "boost lending" by throwing money at the banks and removing their toxic assets really beats me. Sentiment DO NOT just change overnight.
kincella said:
We (or some of us) wished that the governments would just let the free markets work and have these insolvent banks to go bankrupt so other "good" banks (who only do traditional business and not take on excessive risk) can take over them.
Unfortunately, the world of politics does not work that way. The US government is trying very hard to keep the bond holders of these banks alive. (though the shareholders of these banks have pretty much died..)
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I just love that, I really do - you speak as though nothing has happened. Markets cut in half(+) to levels not seen in ten years, house prices plummeting around the world, but yeah, nothing has even begun yet!Wait, let me guess - gold headed to $5k as well?
The amount of continual negativity is just staggering. One should always be realistic, conservative, but never blindly bullish, nor bearish.
I'm not going to repeat my views a million times. Debt grew this bubble and it has to be reversed, if it is not now, it will in the future. It looks like we're buying our way out of trouble at the moment through massive injections of capital from our governments. I've posted a graph on GDP v debt on the forums a few times, find it if you want. You will notice that when debt has outgrown GDP to much it has reversed itself over a period of years. Why won't it be different this time?
Stick to your charts, if you use them. We could see a massive bear market with many rallies within it. The market could head to 4400 if we break through this coming level of resistence. We had a massive bull market from 1980 to current, why can't we have the reverse?
We were at this level back in '04, its '09. Thats not ten years.
So mate, what is your basis that we have reached the "bottom", sound like thats what your saying. Please don't throw out the old line that markets have all ready dropped a lot and if you buy now you will probably see gains in 5 years. Anyone can say that. Any intelligent thoughts behind your thinking? cheers.
I agree Nyden, no matter what the bears or the bulls will have you believe I think the true outcome will lie somewhere in the middle.
To me at the moment with what I see in day to day life running my business we will have a moderate to deep recession but will not see a 1930s style depression, this view may change as the recession deepens but atm despite all the extreme bearish views, so far here in Aust we have only seen a mild recession.
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
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I'm not going to repeat my views a million times. Debt grew this bubble and it has to be reversed, if it is not now, it will in the future. It looks like we're buying our way out of trouble at the moment through massive injections of capital from our governments. I've posted a graph on GDP v debt on the forums a few times, find it if you want. You will notice that when debt has outgrown GDP to much it has reversed itself over a period of years. Why won't it be different this time?
Stick to your charts, if you use them. We could see a massive bear market with many rallies within it. The market could head to 4400 if we break through this coming level of resistence. We had a massive bull market from 1980 to current, why can't we have the reverse?
We were at this level back in '04, its '09. Thats not ten years.
So mate, what is your basis that we have reached the "bottom", sound like thats what your saying. Please don't throw out the old line that markets have all ready dropped a lot and if you buy now you will probably see gains in 5 years. Anyone can say that. Any intelligent thoughts behind your thinking? cheers.
Firstly, I was referring to the US markets (levels not seen in 10 years), but that same comment did apply to many stocks right here as well - CBA springs to mind.
Secondly, no - I don't believe this is the bottom, but I believe we could be close. What's my basis? Well, simply put - the entirety of my basis is a contrarian view. On the TV there are weekly specials on combating the recession, here on ASF, new members with 3 posts are continually posting how much further we've got to fall, and how it's hardly begun. The mainstream media has become bearish, so I'm starting to become bullish.
The simple truth is that you, nor me - nor anyone else, will pick the actual bottom (and if by chance we do, it'll simply be a case of good fortune!), so why bother? The only safe bet, is that the governments of the world will do everything within their power to combat this, whether it will work or not I don't know - but surely some exposure is warranted given the risk of inflation.
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ones things for sure, the world will live another day.... surely some bargins to be had along the way, and with the recent gains some people are making money
jc
jc
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Risk of inflation? Better buy some gold then
Bear market bottoms have already come & gone. My contrarian bearish view is based on the overly bullish sentiment going around now - it's as if all is forgiven, now back to normal - just buy & hold and be a genius share investor again?
Not until there is utter & complete revulsion of everything financial, will we have seen the absolute bottom?
PS better base your logic on something better than Today Tonight segments and 3 poster ASF members.
The mainstream media are overwhelmingly bullish I would have thought ie they don't have clue as usual?
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You know that for a fact........?
i do, i spoke to jesus after the G20 summit, he said dont follow the bearish crowd, and that all is now safe.
jc
Please don't throw out the old line that markets have all ready dropped a lot and if you buy now you will probably see gains in 5 years. Anyone can say that. cheers.
5 Years? How does 5 months or even 5 weeks sound?
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I find it hard to believe that your basing your views on re-entering the market on a few posters on ASF. No offence at all, but I think that is quite stupid. It is said that markets reach the bottom when people are most pessimistic, I don't think we're there yet. I still haven't picked up the Herald Sun and seen headlines everyday about unemployment. The mainstream media can still become a lot more bearish in my opinion.
I doubt it will work. There is going to be problems in the future no matter what. The market mechanism is meant to sort problems out, it can't when there is constant intervention from governments, this would cause inflation one ould think? This happens when governments print money, like the US are doing now, they're following the Zimbabwe economic school of thinking. If the market mechanism was aloud to play out without intervention the market would be cleaned out and a fresh start would begin. That is the problem with a capitalist economy, people are happy with the upside and tell the public sector to go away when things are rosey but they can't handle the downside. You can't have it both ways.
How can you trust the people who got us into this situation (Helicopter Ben, Tim Geithner etc.) to get us out of the problem? It bewilders me that people who caused the problem are aloud to sit around and try and fix it!!!
We'll surely a bit of gold is a good compenent of a portfolio then isn't it? Not suggesting that it is going to $5k but it would do well in an inflationary environment.
Yes if you were trading you could make those gains. I think the poster was talking about investing though, when you buy something and hold it for a longer period of time, say a year, and ride out the lows.
I would suggest that you take up trading. You don't have to worry about any of the background noise the market or economy throws up! wonder.
I confess, I’m an investor. Last 6 months I’ve only been acquiring, I have thought about trading and I am still evaluating the benefits v risk.
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A few reasons why
1. Markets fall faster then they rise.
2. There is an inherent bias to the upside in the market.
Nyden
G.E. Money Genie
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No, not just ASF posters, and not just the media either, but the people as well. Every week at work, there are at least 10 individual people (considering I only work there once a week, that's a fair few) mentioning the recession, and how governments wont be able to fix anything (these are just every day folk as well). At my other place of work, half the people there have literally sworn off of the market, for personal, and for super-fund purposes.
The truth is that the negativity didn't get me into the market a month+ ago, but it's more what's kept me in. What got me in was my belief that oil was exceedingly oversold - and it was. I bought a few oilies when oil was at $35, and have so far done very well; and simply see no reason to sell. My theory is that the negativity I am personally witnessing will lead to a continued rally; as all of these sworn-off people attempt to recoup their losses, by panic buying right into my pocket
However, I do believe it's silly of some to suggest that indexes simply won't recover. I don't care how unique a scenario this is, I know with certainty that they will recover, it's only a matter of when.
Oh, and with regards to gold being a good hedge against inflation ... well, I'll stick with oil for that. Although it's somewhat more difficult to invest directly into it, at least I know there are actual fundamental reasons for price increases. Hello peak oil
Don't get me wrong though, I only have a very small portion of my funds in the market; the rest is sitting very comfortably in my new 5% Interest BankWest account.
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You must have a very pessimistic client base, hardly is mentioned from customers at my part time work. Guessing what type of industry you work in has a large say in things though.
I would agree with you that commodities will obviously be very good hedge/investment, argriculture, oil, gold etc. Yes oil is hard to invest in, but that is why the BHPs of this world exist.wonder.
I would agree with you that commodities will obviously be very good hedge/investment, argriculture, oil, gold etc. Yes oil is hard to invest in, but that is why the BHPs of this world exist.wonder.
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No, no, the taxi drivers, economists & tipsheets (Huntley) are BUYING - they have called the bottom - time to sell to THEM!
Festivus, intelligent as always.
There a quite a few big profit takers out there, but you can tell, these instos are trying HARD to create the kind of rally the retailers and their funds will buy, so they can dump on their heads.
The time is drawing near IMVHO.
"Doomsdayer critics" are about to be shown the exit.
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The time is drawing near IMVHO.
"Doomsdayer critics" are about to be shown the exit.
actually agree .......... still gotta trade whats in front of us but the time to tread carefully is returning fast
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That 3800 lvl of resistence is going to be a defining point on how long this rally will last. The reaction is most important though, who knows what will happen when it occurs. Would of thought that it would have been this week, the strength in this market has been weird. wonder.
Julia
In Memoriam
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As long as we have governments which are entirely focused on the short term electoral cycle, polls, and their own survival, such downside will never be allowed to happen, so politically unpalatable is it.
And, of course, this is perfectly complemented by the superficial approach of the electorate-at-large who are happy to be receiving their handouts.
Don't expect them to give a millisecond's thought to the fact that such largesse is courtesy of borrowed funds which will eventually have to be accounted for.