Markets up, Santos down... thoughts? Am I missing some technical analysis here? Price first started dropping after the announcement saying Santos had signed a 100 million dollar gas contract with some mining company the other day, falling ever since.
STO - Santos Limited
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Oil down 6% might have some influence. Give STO time and it will improve. Good medium term investment.
STO is largely gas though which has gone up. Hell, Santos is looking to sell it's oil interests off darwin and shiz - doesn't make sense to me.
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Santos has always had "take over" price included into it's SP.
Recently analysts are starting to think that they may not be as attractive a target as first thought and rumours are that it won't happen.
If the above is true, and it is only speculation and rumours, then that might explain some of the weakness in the SP in comparison to some of its peers.
Recently analysts are starting to think that they may not be as attractive a target as first thought and rumours are that it won't happen.
If the above is true, and it is only speculation and rumours, then that might explain some of the weakness in the SP in comparison to some of its peers.
Been reading all over the place that British companies are very keen to develop coal seam gas in Australia. Is this just typical HC rampers talking stuff up, or is there any actual basis for their claims?
Also, they keep saying (almost every day in fact) that there's "big buys after close". Is there any way of verifying their claims, or are they just talking smack?
Regards,
Zaij.
Also, they keep saying (almost every day in fact) that there's "big buys after close". Is there any way of verifying their claims, or are they just talking smack?
Regards,
Zaij.
Well it is a fact that both British Gas and Shell have spent big money buying positions in Australian coal seam gas. BG wanted more but its bid for Origin was knocked back.
The Brits aren't the only ones interested of course. Petronas, ConocoPhillips, Sojitz are also there.
The Brits aren't the only ones interested of course. Petronas, ConocoPhillips, Sojitz are also there.
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If you have access to daily trade information ( i do on comsec) then you can see how the day is trading. Following close at 4 pm securities go into pre open and people but in their bids to buy / sell. So if you see a lot of trades going through post 4pm (all will have same time stamp) then you can confirm their claims.
STO is a bit hard for HC rampers given its size.
FMG, GGG and various other speculatives are a different kettle of fish.
Trembling Hand
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This is classic cognitive bias. For ever share bought there is a share sold.
For every "big buys after close" there is an exact opposite "big sell after close" or no trade would happen.
To weight one side over the other will only tell you where your bias lay. Nothing more nothin less.
Quite right.
Heavy buying/selling is only significant if it takes place in an uptrend or a downtrend. Recent STO trading has been pretty much sideways and volumes have been unremarkable.
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But TH, the bias can lie on either the buy or the sell side, true a trade = buy + sell. But you can also determine buying pressure by looking at if the trade came off the see list of the buy list. If the trades are consistently coming off the sell list then you've got buying pressure and vice versa. Pressure makes the price move in either direction and is relevant. So big buys (ie volume off the sell list) can be relevant - although what it tells you is certainly up to your interpretation!
Trembling Hand
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I assume you are talking about the market depth list here?
You still have it wrong though. Just because one large punter decides to pay up a price level or two and is met by an equal size large punter you are kidding yourself if you think thats meaningful in its self.
You might wanna waste a couple days of your time studying VSA. Could change you perspective?
Don't know that much about gas/oil wells drilling and findings.
But Santos released an announcement today http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00977090 explaining that Santos discovered gas in Browse Basin offshore WA. I'm not that sure of the announcement outcomes, but investors sure liked it
ps. what do they mean the well will be plugged, why would they do that
But Santos released an announcement today http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00977090 explaining that Santos discovered gas in Browse Basin offshore WA. I'm not that sure of the announcement outcomes, but investors sure liked it
ps. what do they mean the well will be plugged, why would they do that
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I'd say it's most probably due to that fact that the MASSIVE Gorgon project is likely to get approval and "big players" might be shifting money to Chevron, Shell and Exxon with the dollar being high at the moment. Gorgon is by far the largest of the gas targets but suffers from the 4 D's - deep, distant, difficult and dirty... Santos is 4 or 5 years away from delivering. Also, there's talk around about AOE being taken over - possibly people jumping ships.
Disclaimer:Holds Santos and Arrow
Disclaimer:Holds Santos and Arrow
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Don't know that much about gas/oil wells drilling and findings.
But Santos released an announcement today http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00977090 explaining that Santos discovered gas in Browse Basin offshore WA. I'm not that sure of the announcement outcomes, but investors sure liked it
ps. what do they mean the well will be plugged, why would they do that
Doubt that today's movement is related to the Browse Basin news as BPT are a stake holder and haven't budged at all though BPT have defied all rallies in the market and POO to remain stagnant to negative with their SP.
3% gain on average Volume is good but could just as easily go back 3% again tomorrow.
The takeover premium built into STO makes it difficult to realise much gain at the moment though i am still holding both STO and BPT as they are both quality stocks with great stories to tell.
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Pushed $16 about six weeks ago, now playing around the high $13's. Any thoughts? Just trying to revive this thread, as being a local I'm keen on people's thoughts on this one!
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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As the chart clearly shows...buying STO at under $13.90 has been somewhat profitable in the past and the ideal entry level for anyone wanting to build a value position in this great company...IMO
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johannlo
wintermute000
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Momentum is clearly gone from this one to the other gas plays. But agreed at first glance the 13s appears to be a good LT entry point.
Need to look at some numbers in detail first, I'm not so hot with making FA valuations so prob need to skim some reports etc. first to get a grip on the key figures (cashflow, eps, P/E etc.) and a sound handle on near and long term opportunities coming online. Have heard many times in the past that STO SP factors in takeover opportunity so maybe with all the majors making big moves that sentiment has dipped.
Need to look at some numbers in detail first, I'm not so hot with making FA valuations so prob need to skim some reports etc. first to get a grip on the key figures (cashflow, eps, P/E etc.) and a sound handle on near and long term opportunities coming online. Have heard many times in the past that STO SP factors in takeover opportunity so maybe with all the majors making big moves that sentiment has dipped.
