Any take over offer must come at a premium to induce share holders to sell. Anywhere from 40%-75% if you use the last few take over bids.
STO has a market cap of approx $7b so $10.8b-$12.5b is my estimate. That equates to around $18-$20 per share.
That is if a bid gets off the ground of course. The CSG assets may get sold off in a bid to keep the current ownership in place also but lets wait and see as we are less than a month into the ownership restrictions being lifted so thre will be a few cashed up oil companies taking a look under the hood yet.
the full article from china news
China National Petroleum Corp, the largest oil producer on the mainland, is considering pairing up with a foreign oil company to make a bid for Australian oil and gas major Santos, market sources said.
"They've looked at a couple of parties but haven't put out any feelers. It would probably be a European firm that doesn't have a huge presence in Australia already," said one source. "There's really only a handful of buyers that could pull that deal off now."
Energy companies' share prices have taken a hammering as oil prices plummeted from historic highs hit earlier this year.
Apart from CNPC (SEHK: 0135), potential bidders could include Chevron, BP, Eni and Total, industry observers said. CNPC declined to comment
"Eni doesn't have a presence, and that would make them more open to a deal, but they've already spent a lot on acquisitions so [CNPC] would have to offer them pretty good terms," said a London-based oil and gas analyst.
"The corporate culture and the way they operate are so different, there would be major obstacles to overcome before they could do a deal. Even Eni and BP would have issues working together."
While CNPC would be seeking a partner to mitigate political opposition, the benefit to a partner, which could very likely make a bid on its own, was nil, the analyst added. "Would they hope to get deals in China? China doesn't have any oil."
Santos, the third-largest oil and gas company in Australia, was freed on November 29 from a 15 per cent limit on individual stakes imposed on the company by South Australia that had been aimed at blocking takeover attempts and keeping energy supplies in the state. The firm had long complained that the cap kept its share price artificially low and prevented it from competing with regional players.
Santos hired Deutsche Bank and Australia's Caliburn Partnership to run the company's defence of expected takeover attempts by multinational oil and gas firms, sources said.
"The Australians aren't going to let go of that without a big fight, because it's one of their flagship companies," said Larry Grace, an energy analyst at Kim Eng Securities.
Santos has a market capitalisation of US$4.52 billion. Its shares have fallen 13.95 per cent this year, compared with the 44.95 per cent slide in the S&P/ASX 200 Index.
The company said on May 2 that it was in the early stages of "potential strategic initiatives".
Volatile equity markets and tight credit have made executing transactions difficult, and many potential mergers and acquisitions have failed to be completed.
Anglo-Swiss mining firm Xstrata backed out in October of a US$10 billion acquisition of Lonmin, the world's third-largest platinum miner.
"A full takeover [of Santos] might not be on the cards because they can't get the value that they want, given where the market is now," said one Australian-based analyst. "That's why a joint venture may be the answer."
Such a move would keep control of projects in the company's hands and management intact.
The company negotiated a first joint venture in May with Malaysian state oil company Petronas, the third-largest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world, which will pay up to US$2.5 billion for a 40 per cent stake in Santos' Gladstone LNG plant and 450km gas pipeline.