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STO - Santos Limited

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on the fence

thinking on jumping into sto ? ;)

would like too hear from anyone who thinks she's good value at this price ?
Or is there more down side ?

this company has some great potential
hearing many QGC sellers are jumping into this
 
just like to make everyone aware that Santo's cap gets taken off on the 29th .. leaving it open to takeovers from Petronas

good luck :)
 
agro said:
just like to make everyone aware that Santo's cap gets taken off on the 29th .. leaving it open to takeovers from Petronas

good luck :)
Click to expand...

Any other time I would say this was worth a punt. But at the moment .......

I'll probably be kicking myself in a few weeks time.
 
agro said:
just like to make everyone aware that Santo's cap gets taken off on the 29th .. leaving it open to takeovers from Petronas

good luck :)
Click to expand...


Looks like the first bid is being prepared if the press can be believed (which you can't but there is a lot of smoke around and volumes are up).

Good call Agro. If it wasnt for price of oil i would have bought a lot more with my QGC money. Anyway these times it pays to safeguard your best asset (cash) so happy that i have some STO and watching with interest.
 
TheAbyss said:
Looks like the first bid is being prepared if the press can be believed (which you can't but there is a lot of smoke around and volumes are up).

Good call Agro. If it wasnt for price of oil i would have bought a lot more with my QGC money. Anyway these times it pays to safeguard your best asset (cash) so happy that i have some STO and watching with interest.
Click to expand...

Any fundamentalists who may have a view on what a reasonable price would be if sto were to have a takeover bid placed.
With price of oil , recession and delay of projects this must be a hard one to answer.
 
Any take over offer must come at a premium to induce share holders to sell. Anywhere from 40%-75% if you use the last few take over bids.

STO has a market cap of approx $7b so $10.8b-$12.5b is my estimate. That equates to around $18-$20 per share.

That is if a bid gets off the ground of course. The CSG assets may get sold off in a bid to keep the current ownership in place also but lets wait and see as we are less than a month into the ownership restrictions being lifted so thre will be a few cashed up oil companies taking a look under the hood yet.
 
TheAbyss said:
Any take over offer must come at a premium to induce share holders to sell. Anywhere from 40%-75% if you use the last few take over bids.

STO has a market cap of approx $7b so $10.8b-$12.5b is my estimate. That equates to around $18-$20 per share.

That is if a bid gets off the ground of course. The CSG assets may get sold off in a bid to keep the current ownership in place also but lets wait and see as we are less than a month into the ownership restrictions being lifted so thre will be a few cashed up oil companies taking a look under the hood yet.
Click to expand...

the full article from china news


China National Petroleum Corp, the largest oil producer on the mainland, is considering pairing up with a foreign oil company to make a bid for Australian oil and gas major Santos, market sources said.
"They've looked at a couple of parties but haven't put out any feelers. It would probably be a European firm that doesn't have a huge presence in Australia already," said one source. "There's really only a handful of buyers that could pull that deal off now."
Energy companies' share prices have taken a hammering as oil prices plummeted from historic highs hit earlier this year.
Apart from CNPC (SEHK: 0135), potential bidders could include Chevron, BP, Eni and Total, industry observers said. CNPC declined to comment
"Eni doesn't have a presence, and that would make them more open to a deal, but they've already spent a lot on acquisitions so [CNPC] would have to offer them pretty good terms," said a London-based oil and gas analyst.
"The corporate culture and the way they operate are so different, there would be major obstacles to overcome before they could do a deal. Even Eni and BP would have issues working together."
While CNPC would be seeking a partner to mitigate political opposition, the benefit to a partner, which could very likely make a bid on its own, was nil, the analyst added. "Would they hope to get deals in China? China doesn't have any oil."
Santos, the third-largest oil and gas company in Australia, was freed on November 29 from a 15 per cent limit on individual stakes imposed on the company by South Australia that had been aimed at blocking takeover attempts and keeping energy supplies in the state. The firm had long complained that the cap kept its share price artificially low and prevented it from competing with regional players.
Santos hired Deutsche Bank and Australia's Caliburn Partnership to run the company's defence of expected takeover attempts by multinational oil and gas firms, sources said.
"The Australians aren't going to let go of that without a big fight, because it's one of their flagship companies," said Larry Grace, an energy analyst at Kim Eng Securities.
Santos has a market capitalisation of US$4.52 billion. Its shares have fallen 13.95 per cent this year, compared with the 44.95 per cent slide in the S&P/ASX 200 Index.
The company said on May 2 that it was in the early stages of "potential strategic initiatives".
Volatile equity markets and tight credit have made executing transactions difficult, and many potential mergers and acquisitions have failed to be completed.
Anglo-Swiss mining firm Xstrata backed out in October of a US$10 billion acquisition of Lonmin, the world's third-largest platinum miner.
"A full takeover [of Santos] might not be on the cards because they can't get the value that they want, given where the market is now," said one Australian-based analyst. "That's why a joint venture may be the answer."
Such a move would keep control of projects in the company's hands and management intact.
The company negotiated a first joint venture in May with Malaysian state oil company Petronas, the third-largest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world, which will pay up to US$2.5 billion for a 40 per cent stake in Santos' Gladstone LNG plant and 450km gas pipeline.
 
:)

Hi folks,

STO ... looking for some negative sentiment over the next
couple of months, as several negative time cycles come into
play, especially around:

2601-20022009 ... at least 4 negative time cycles
come into play, during this period.

Happy trading in 2009.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====
 
they also still have some ongoing issues with their indonesian panji mudbath, bloodbath but a couple of days ago a report said that they are trying to negotiate some sort of settlement to exit this environmental disaster. Reports say the damage bill could top $1 - $2b. with scientists saying it is impossible to cap until mother nature decides to call a halt!!
bit risky to take over with that issue unresolved, i would of thought!
 
rustyheela said:
they also still have some ongoing issues with their indonesian panji mudbath, bloodbath but a couple of days ago a report said that they are trying to negotiate some sort of settlement to exit this environmental disaster. Reports say the damage bill could top $1 - $2b. with scientists saying it is impossible to cap until mother nature decides to call a halt!!
bit risky to take over with that issue unresolved, i would of thought!
Click to expand...

It cost them $22.5 Million US but Santos have walked away from that liability. Link to doc follows.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081211/pdf/31f4nzb5n2ql90.pdf
 
Re: on the fence

kingbrown said:
thinking on jumping into sto ? ;)

would like too hear from anyone who thinks she's good value at this price ?
Or is there more down side ?
Click to expand...

With the current middle east conflict all oil stocks should benefit.

Bombs go down and oil goes up.

I am long on STO.
 
It looks like STO has resistance at $15. So I'm going to wait for it to break $15 and do a retest before jumping on this.
 

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STO has formed a decent looking Ascending Triangle reversal pattern. I think the resistance zone spans more to around the 15.25 level. I'm still to be convinced about the volume on this one. Wanna see it pick up before breakout with a definite increase on breakout day, at least around 10m and a decisive close above the resistance. There's gaps to fill at 17.13 and 18.55 so may have a bit in it.

STO.gif
 
has been sold down in the last couple of days..

any chartists got a view on santos?

is the ascending triangle still present?
 
pan said:
has been sold down in the last couple of days..

any chartists got a view on santos?

is the ascending triangle still present?
Click to expand...

i think it is just general market conditions at the moment keeping it down
they have just upgraded their reserves but oil prices are still supressed
i think also rumours of takeover by china pet. have worn off , like you i would be interested in a chartists view
 
positive movement in the oil will see positive moment in the sp i guess.

my opinion from the chart is that it is starting to just trade sideways.

would be good to hear another view
 
pan said:
positive movement in the oil will see positive moment in the sp i guess.

my opinion from the chart is that it is starting to just trade sideways.

would be good to hear another view
Click to expand...

you will notice that sto , wpl , osh all have a similiar chart pattern over last three months
waiting for a trigger for a movement either way i suppose
 
STO

can santos break the resistance shackles and get out of the 5 month triangle?

looks good, consistently higher lows. Go the STO!!:):):)
 

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