Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

STO - Santos Limited

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notting said:
Crawling out of the debtors prison and improving margins. Potentially doing an FMG if oil can stay above 42 or so. Though it's margins are not as great at this point.
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When you consider they were offered nearly $7 a share in 2015, and since then have done capital raising worth about $4billion, with the resulting dilution of shareholder equity.
What are they today? $3.27
They are a complete disaster.IMO
The Chinese will end up owning them, IMO, sad management.
 
notting said:
Only if you were silly enough to be owning them prior
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There was nothing silly about owning them, the $7 a share was a good offer, there was plenty of money to be made.
The rejection of the offer and subsequent fall to $2.50 was a disaster that was difficult to predict, then the capital raising's and now a price of $3.27.
Really doesn't inspire much confidence, in management.
That is of course, unless you think, they will make better decissions going forward.
I was told by a mate years ago Santos had $hit management, so I steered clear, then saw the opportunity, jumped in and got burnt.
Never again.
 
I couldn't believe how well STO performed during the GFC relative to everything else. It was the most obvious short ever for a money munching monster that it was at the time.
But it didn't happen until everything else started recovering. One of those being right for too long experiences. Sept 2014
 
Santos, needs a lesson in business 101, they could learn from WES.

I would love to know what price per share, they would have to get now, to replicate the one they rejected.
Just a scam. IMO
Imagine the shareholders that bought in at $10 - $15 years ago, tears all round I'd guess.
There are a lot of shareholders, that rely on a dividend for their income, not all rely on flipping shares to make on income.
Some see that as two up.
 
Surely the Saudis are planning some stunt to offload their oil float rip off. They are still well and truly big enough to make the price go where ever they want it if they must.
 
sptrawler said:
Santos, needs a lesson in business 101, they could learn from WES.

I would love to know what price per share, they would have to get now, to replicate the one they rejected.
Just a scam. IMO
Imagine the shareholders that bought in at $10 - $15 years ago, tears all round I'd guess.
There are a lot of shareholders, that rely on a dividend for their income, not all rely on flipping shares to make on income.
Some see that as two up.
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I was in Narrabri for a few days over a year ago now. While talking to a few cockies about the drilling etc around The Pilliga they were telling me that at one meeting they (STO) already had a list of all the people who would be attending and were likely to be objecting.
From the list they were able to quote how many shares each participant held either directly or indirectly through super etc. Got a few cockies off guard apparently !
 
Seems a bidding war is about to start on this one.

The reported offer price from Harbour Energy is some $AUD5.30...
 
luutzu said:
Seems a bidding war is about to start on this one.

The reported offer price from Harbour Energy is some $AUD5.30...
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I wouldn't bet on it, management knocked back an offer of nearly double that, they probably know they would all be sacked if a takeover happened.IMO
 
sptrawler said:
I wouldn't bet on it, management knocked back an offer of nearly double that, they probably know they would all be sacked if a takeover happened.IMO
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Reading what they say of Mrs Cook, she'll definitely fire the lot of them even if they were capable.

The $6.80 offer rejection was a good call in my book. It's better to raise equity from shareholders instead of selling out at a market low.

With the new capital raised and debt now reduced, oil market seems to be brighter than it was two years ago... the company is much more valuable now than before.

I haven't done the dilution of new shares and can't remember from top of my head, but a $5.30 a share would value the company as a whole much higher than the then $6.80. Though for us shareholders it's a loss on a per share basis.

But I doubt any company can takeover at $5.30 a share though. There's the Chinese with their 15% take; there's Scepter from the Middle East that wouldn't just walked away after one knockback.

Who knows, I might come out of this breaking even :D
Jumped the gun too early with this one.
 
There was talk about the gas crisis in the east > FIRB unlikely to approve a T/O > no more bidding for STO. Still, a nice platform under the price
 
JTLP said:
There was talk about the gas crisis in the east > FIRB unlikely to approve a T/O > no more bidding for STO. Still, a nice platform under the price
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The gas crisis was cooked up by the enterprising capitalists at Santos and the likes. They even talk about it in one of the presentations.

How else are you going to get the voters off the politicians back about "safety", "clean drinking water" and environmental protection? Reduce supplies and increase the price domestically.

There's not enough gas for Australian battlers and entrepreneurs (because we shipped most of it offshore). Now if only you greenies get a life and let us frack the crap out the Naribi [?], maybe we'll get cheaper gas and won't be held hostage by (other people, who controls the gas supplies).

So if the price is right, they'll help getting the lawmakers into line. That and Gina can always be called upon to satisfy the Australianess of any foreign takeover :xyxthumbs

I sometime feel that these Australian/National Interest tests is so that our Aussie billionaires can have a cut in any major deal. Good thing they pay Aussie taxes.. oh wait.
 
Will Santos hit back below $5 or keep inching up?
Im looking to make an entry point but nothing seems to let me lol
 
StewyD32 said:
Will Santos hit back below $5 or keep inching up?
Im looking to make an entry point but nothing seems to let me lol
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Hard to say.

As you probably have read, rumours has it that Harbour is planning a new offer of $5.30 a share in coming days. This is probably why the market is currently pricing it at about the $5 mark.

If that rumour turns out to be false (in a bad way) then it'll drop.... BUT

Drop how far and for how long?

ENN/Hony owns some 15.1% and they've agreed to not block any takeover offer that is above their entry average. And they can counter-offer in the event the board accepts.

Then there's Sceptre and all the rest who might want to join in and maybe carve up certain part more synergistic to their current operations etc. etc.

OPEC is due to meet end of Nov... rumour and rumblings says they plan to extend the current cut to end of 2018.

Venezuela is being thoroughly screwed by the US that it can't get enough funding (or much of anything) to operate, man or hire contractors to pump and expand its operations. So it's been pumping less than it's supposed to.

Maybe others will step in and gap the difference but Saudi just said they wouldn't do it.

I do own a fairly large chunk of STO so take what I say with all the self-interest in mind.
 
I find it interesting the the stock dropped 3% on the day of the investor presentation. Then gapped down [hitting my stop] and dropped some more.
What was in the presentation that shareholders didn't like ?
Then a few days later a response to the press speculation [press buddy finds leak]confirming No takeover offer is in the works! The desired result was achieved. 4.39-5.08
Awsome way to break the $5 without looking like market manipulation.
And some accumulation of cheap stocks down there too I bet
[ Sorry for the cynicism ,I use Wyckoff method]
 
luutzu said:
Hard to say.

As you probably have read, rumours has it that Harbour is planning a new offer of $5.30 a share in coming days. This is probably why the market is currently pricing it at about the $5 mark.

If that rumour turns out to be false (in a bad way) then it'll drop.... BUT

Drop how far and for how long?

ENN/Hony owns some 15.1% and they've agreed to not block any takeover offer that is above their entry average. And they can counter-offer in the event the board accepts.

Then there's Sceptre and all the rest who might want to join in and maybe carve up certain part more synergistic to their current operations etc. etc.

OPEC is due to meet end of Nov... rumour and rumblings says they plan to extend the current cut to end of 2018.

Venezuela is being thoroughly screwed by the US that it can't get enough funding (or much of anything) to operate, man or hire contractors to pump and expand its operations. So it's been pumping less than it's supposed to.

Maybe others will step in and gap the difference but Saudi just said they wouldn't do it.

I do own a fairly large chunk of STO so take what I say with all the self-interest in mind.
Click to expand...

Thank you for the replay and a well informed one at that.
I will keep an eye on it and see what prevails. However funds might be going to KLA if nothing happens.
 
A bit of a jump in the share price this week, but it's a months since the rumours started flying and nothing firm yet...
 
$13.5 billion bid for Santos from US-owned, private-equity backed Harbour Energy. The highly conditional bid is made up of a $6.13 per share cash payment and a 37 cent per share dividend.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-03/santos-receives-13.5-billion-dollar-takeover-bid/9612420

big.chart.STO.gif
 

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