SSN - Samson Oil & Gas

[Trevoru]

Up over 5% in US last night with the market there down overall.

Interesting read: http://seekingalpha.com/article/275910-the-babies-of-the-bakken-are-set-for-a-rebound?source=yahoo

 

[Trevoru]

New Ann out - acquiring another 90,000 acres in Bakken - yeh ha
With relatively low share price in US, does this make SSN a target?
Hopefully not - I think the SP here will do better in the next 18 months than what we'd get from a takeover - IMO
Cheers - TU

 

[Nortorious]

New Ann out - acquiring another 90,000 acres in Bakken - yeh ha
With relatively low share price in US, does this make SSN a target?
Hopefully not - I think the SP here will do better in the next 18 months than what we'd get from a takeover - IMO
Cheers - TU

This is a fantastic announcement and very well worded by Terry and crew.

From the reading and research I have done on SSN, many people are suggesting that SSN could be a target for takeover.

I have to agree that the share price has potential to run over the next 18 months so although a takeover bid would be a nice compliment, I think we would be better off remaining as SSN for now. IMO of course

 

[yarrabah]

This is a fantastic announcement and very well worded by Terry and crew.

From the reading and research I have done on SSN, many people are suggesting that SSN could be a target for takeover.

I have to agree that the share price has potential to run over the next 18 months so although a takeover bid would be a nice compliment, I think we would be better off remaining as SSN for now. IMO of course

TB suggested TO price of would have to be in the mid 40's to be acceptable. Tend to agree.

Great ann.

 

[Slipperz]

WOW! What incredible news. As if we haven't got enough drilling action coming up this year another potentially massive oilfield to drain for dollars in the Bakken.... spudding in September!!!!!!!!!!!! Looking at the neighbours I'm thinking the geos are on the money after their exhaustive research.

Haliburton in on this as well, crikey we can put a lot of holes in 90 000 acres!!!!

I think the amex will run harder tonight and we'll be off again on Monday and beyond...finally the downtrend is broken.

Oh boy we are in for an exciting year with SSN.

Oh and just quietly well done Terry Barr and co for steering this little oiler into something really big. Experience pays!

 

[Slipperz]

Pretty dismal session in the US. But the dow was tumbling all day and Obama has just released some of the strategic oil reserve to keep a bit of a lid on petrol prices. More a political ploy methinks to spare US drivers too much pain at the pump in summer "driving season" and help his approval ratings along. But at least we were up

Bit of news in from the local rag which is quite handy for Goshen County news the good ol Torrington Telegram

http://www.torringtontelegram.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=34&story_id=7356

Interesting to see Devon coming into the picture....http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/05/27/us-energy-summit-devon-niobrara-idUKTRE64Q6FV20100527

 

[thesnowyforest]

Hartleys have released a new report on Samson with a 6 month target of 28c.

If you would like a copy of the report you ca email me on tsfebay@gmail.com

Cheers

 

[Slipperz]

email sent

 

[Slipperz]

Pretty dismal session in the US. But the dow was tumbling all day and Obama has just released some of the strategic oil reserve to keep a bit of a lid on petrol prices. More a political ploy methinks to spare US drivers too much pain at the pump in summer "driving season" and help his approval ratings along. But at least we were up

Bit of news in from the local rag which is quite handy for Goshen County news the good ol Torrington Telegram

http://www.torringtontelegram.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=34&story_id=7356

Interesting to see Devon coming into the picture....http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/05/27/us-energy-summit-devon-niobrara-idUKTRE64Q6FV20100527

My bad on this one it was the IEA that has released more reserves. I heard it on a tv in the background and put 1 and 2 together and got 4! :bonk:

 

[Slipperz]

Been doing a bit of research on Roosevelt County and I like what I found...



So it would seem that somehow we have struck a deal with the native titleholders over the big boys on some very oily looking land. Now the whys and wherefores of the deal aren't of that much concern ( other than the price we paid which will eventually be evident in the quarterly ) but it seems to me we are looking at a huge win with these acreages.

Heres the results from the neighbours Brigham who have 10.2 % of their reserves in the Montana Bakken.

Eastern Montana
Well Area Objective Frac Stages IP (Boe/d) Avg 1st 7 Days Avg 1st 30 Days Avg 1st 60 Days
Voss 21-11H Montana Bakken 28 1,143 NA NA NA
Johnson 30-19 #1H Montana Bakken 36 2,962 1,512 803 NA
Sw indle 16-9 #1H Montana Bakken 20 1,065 620 400 NA
Rogney 17-8 #1H Montana Bakken 30 909 478 355 285
MT Average 1,520 870 519 285

So with a 90 day average of 285* 95 * 28 * 3 = $678,300 per quarter per well or roughly a two year payback on the drilling expense of roughly 5 million to drill and frac a lateral.

Okay now I've got a bit more skin in the game that Hartleys so from a purely 100% risked upside potential lets try 90 000 acres at 66.66% as l'm sure our native American partners will want some of the action if we are successful.

Say 60 000 acres at 640 acre spacings is 93 potential wells. Now Brigham who are the largest driller in the Bakken are figuring somewhere between 500-700 mboe per well EUR over 20 years as stated in their most recent presentation to Enercom dated June 16th 2011. http://www.bexp3d.com/IR_pres.pdf

This makes me tap my toes a bit when I start putting these figures into my calculator...

Say 93 wells *600k boe EUR *$95 a barrel =$5 301 000 000.00. Take out the drilling costs, tax and the rest and what have we got? From an amateur accounting perspective I 'd say a boat loat of cash, at least a couple of billion!

And looking at the neighbours it is fairly heavily derisked already. Massive rerating imminent for SSN IMHO

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

 

[Dougs Antiques]

I would like to thank Slipperz for his timely input on this new news, and also for his link to the local rag.
For me personally I have put a fair chunk of my savings into SSN about 50K in recent times with a view to trade out in a fairly short period of time, but now im having second thoughts and may hold for the next 18 months.
IMHO the upside to SSN has the potential to be a 10 bagger
The re rating that we all seem to be waiting for should be a nice upside.
Now that we are past the bad weather season there should be a lot more positive results.
We have been plagued with unfortunate news in the past few months with the odd bit of good news....but hopefully this is all about to change.
Tomorrow morning will be a test as to how the market views the latest news as to weather it will hold up or not on open.
I for 1 will be watching closely.
With regards to a take over National Nominees Ltd (ANZ) holds 61% of SSN issued shares and I cant see them letting go of them anytime soon at a cheap price.
Regards

 

[oldblue]

With regards to a take over National Nominees Ltd (ANZ) holds 61% of SSN issued shares and I cant see them letting go of them anytime soon at a cheap price

Well, of course National Nominees is not the beneficial owner of these shares.

Who is/are?

Unusually, the 2010 annual report doesn't include details of substantial holders in the company.

 

[Dougs Antiques]

Well, of course National Nominees is not the beneficial owner of these shares.

Who is/are?

Unusually, the 2010 annual report doesn't include details of substantial holders in the company.

After some of my own research it is very hard to get any real info on the true faces behind the name except to say that they do have a large intrest in a lot of prominant companies.
Does anyone know anything about National Nominees ?

 

[oldblue]

Nominee companies routinely hold shares in numerous companies. That's their function, to act as the registered holder for investors who either don't want to disclose their identity or, more usually, are overseas parties and/or need someone else to attend to the formalities associated with shareholdings.

SSN is a bit of a puzzle in that it's not obvious who the beneficial owner/s of the 61% are. There hasn't been a recent substantial shareholder notice and the AR doesn't tell us anything in that regard. I'm just curious!

 

[Slipperz]

I would like to thank Slipperz for his timely input on this new news, and also for his link to the local rag.
For me personally I have put a fair chunk of my savings into SSN about 50K in recent times with a view to trade out in a fairly short period of time, but now im having second thoughts and may hold for the next 18 months.
IMHO the upside to SSN has the potential to be a 10 bagger
The re rating that we all seem to be waiting for should be a nice upside.
Now that we are past the bad weather season there should be a lot more positive results.
We have been plagued with unfortunate news in the past few months with the odd bit of good news....but hopefully this is all about to change.
Tomorrow morning will be a test as to how the market views the latest news as to weather it will hold up or not on open.
I for 1 will be watching closely.
With regards to a take over National Nominees Ltd (ANZ) holds 61% of SSN issued shares and I cant see them letting go of them anytime soon at a cheap price.
Regards

Thanks for the that Dougs Antiques. We're looking the goods on the overnight in the US, I think we will close on the intraday high. Hopefully some fracking news sometime this week to steady Bakken nerves and then we are into drilling season in a big way!

If all goes according to plan in the longer term a ten bagger is quite possible if we find plenty of the black stuff!!!!

GLTA

 

[yarrabah]

TB interview June 27th

http://oilandgas360.com/

 

[Slipperz]

Looking good on the Amex again tonight. I think this upwards momentum should continue for a while now, there is serious value to be unlocked in this company in 2011.

 

[Dougs Antiques]

Hi all here is a view which is in my opinion only.
Friday saw a 2.36% drop on amex after we saw a 1 tick drop 3.57%, my question is do we follow the Amex or does the Amex follow us?
On Fridays trading here I watched it quite closely (instant live feed with maquarie prime) there were very few sellers under 14c with a small sellout on closing @ 13.5c.
On Friday we saw very low volume indicating that very few were willing to sell at this price, low volume and little or no movement is an indicator of positive movement in the following days.
Another words low supply at this price, so buyers need to up the ante to purchase a decent package.
All that is needed in this situation is a good announcement for a good lift in price.
Here is my chart.

my

 

[ob1kinobi]

Hi Doug,

I presume The ASX would be following the AMEX.

As to the anns and SP, haven't there been two +ve anns i.e zero debt and purchasing additional acreages?

These have moved the SP a little, but not a lot

There isn't many buyers in the US and the US market has had a decent run in the last four days too

I could be wrong, but I take my lead from the US and there isn't a lot of interest in this stock at present.

 

[Dougs Antiques]

Hi Doug,

I presume The ASX would be following the AMEX.

As to the anns and SP, haven't there been two +ve anns i.e zero debt and purchasing additional acreages?

These have moved the SP a little, but not a lot

There isn't many buyers in the US and the US market has had a decent run in the last four days too

I could be wrong, but I take my lead from the US and there isn't a lot of interest in this stock at present.

This is true what you are saying,but at the times of those announcements there was high(er) volume.
When the volume is low with little movement,it is then a statement from the sellers that we wont let this go at this price so a higher price is needed.
When the volume is high with a descending stock it implies that a lot are willing to bail out at a cheap price.
From my point of view we will see decent rise on good volume with a good announcement if it happens in the next 2 trading days.
If there are plenty of sellers at low prices no announcement will help which has been the case with the last 2 announcements.
Todays announcement may brush onto tomorrows trade given the time of publishing on ASX.
I hold a fair quanity of SSN and believe that there is room for a higher sp at the moment
Regards