SRZ - Stellar Resources

[Woody]

Ken, if you don't need the cash and truly like the stock, just hang in.

I am, would kick myself if I bailed out now and they delivered the goods. I sold quite a lot of stuff last Thursday, but didn't touch these. Always saw them as a long termer. A lot of announcements due, let's hope they're good and sooner rather than later eh?

 

[Sean K]

I suspect 24 cents will be tomorrow if it breaks below 24 cents SRZ begins to look ugly.....Would you cut losses or hold?

I agree, breaking 24 will be untidy and much depends on the overall market.

Personally, I might sell half of what I have if this occurs to protect some capital, in case it completely fails after that. While I think this is a correction, and the flow on effect from sub prime will not be as bad as the bears believe (the amount of sub prime delinquencies are a drop in the US morgage bucket from what I understand - and the vast majority of the US is still going great, as is the rest of the world), I will be quick to completely cash in if there's a serious breakdowns in support, which 24 and then 20 is for this.

As a general comment on the potential fallout from the US, and particularly concerns over credit, what could occur in Australia as a potential flow on, is that funding could dry up. At the moment, if an explorer needs cash, they go and do a book build down the Freeo Pub. In the future that may be more difficult and species may suffer, or even collapse worst case. So, you need to be protected from this. Also, even the best FA is based on available information that the company provides. We've seen many cases of creative accounting, poor hedging, and poor understanding of geology for example, that has resulted in companies collapse miserably, or worst case be wound up. Not saying that this is the case here at all, but something to remember when holding something through what seems to be great fundamentals, or even through emotion, or stubbourness. Food for thought.

But as I said, I think correction. But I'm no economist, I used to run Army hospitals!

 

[Ken]

No volume is good volume in my opinion at this stage, means in a down market everyone is sitting tight. They people who bumped it up to 30 cents were probably the ones who sold down to 26.5 cents.

Hold tight. Fingers crossed our little vessel doesnt get too wet this week.

 

[Woody]

There is no way with commodities strong that SRZ will crash. It is holding too much quality acreage that it's been slowly, systematically and professionally scoping. It just needs to turn up some outstanding results somewhere and it will be off with a bullet. There's a lot of serious patient players in this one and they are a serious company.

 

[Ken]

I hope so woody.

If SRZ get to 50 cents again, there will be fireworks going from me I tell you that much!

 

[Ken]

The top 20 shareholders of SRZ only hold 25% of the company...

There are 20 holders who hold 17 million shares.

And there are 2,094 holders who hold 75% of the company.

There are 67 million shares on issue.

I find this a strangely low number of top 20 shareholders, my only thinking is that this is due to capital raising in the past.

All in all there are around 2114 shareholders with average holding of 31693 shares, which is roughly $8557. This included the top 20 share holders.

Take out the top 20 share holders and 2094 share holders have an average of 23,758 shares @ $6414.8

I believe this is the reason why SRZ is a fairly volatile stock in the way it moves. This may explain why there is no build up or accumulation in the stock. It may also explain why the stock has gone in waves as opposed to building a base and then running upwards.

It may also explain why the stock is at a discount to its peers.

I would prefer to have 60-70% of the stock controlled by top 20 shareholders, but I suppose that would make it hard to pick up a large stake in the company.

Either way I hold .15% of the company...

 

[Sean K]

I've been waiting for this. Hopefully I have enough shares to get priority. The tin IPO should release value to shareholders IMO. The history of these IPOs has been very favourable. I remember YT metioning this a while ago.

sp is still languishing though.

 

[Ken]

Kennas,

SRZ has a busy program ahead, I don't know of another company at this price with so many projects on the go.

Once again, only concern being no substantial shareholders.

With the announcements over the past month SRZ should be at all time highs, they have all been positive....

This is concerning.

Obviously an unloved stock for some reason or another.

 

[Ken]

FYI

The tin spin off should take say 2 to 3 months, intention is to finalise prior to year end, and preferably much before.

The tin spin off in conjuction with drill results being announced leaves SRZ in a very exciting position.

Management are looking at having a real crack at adding some shareholder wealth with the way they are going about it.

SRZ aims to make discoveries, and move these into development. This is where major value uplift will come from.

I hold.

My research is done.

 

[jtb]

Well I joined you today mate.
Love the look of the chart and the support around 25/6c looks solid - to this point anyway.

 

[Ken]

I'd love to pick up some more SRZ, but cash wise, I want to have some up my sleeve if the share price does drop so I can average out my price.

My concern is the share has a very low percentage of top 20 share holders.

25% in fact. Whether this is due to shareplacements I am not sure.

If I can get any confirmation that in 2-3 years time SRZ is a chance of being a $1.00 you will see me on the top 20 shareholders list...

lol

 

[Ken]

When SRZ listed in 2004 there worth 50 million shares on offer, 3700 shareholders, 20 shareholders held 9 million shares at 20% of the company

In 2007 there are 2100 shareholders and top share holders hold 17 million shares. So over 3 years the top 20 shareholders have been able to close to double there holdings.

Now from the beginning we have the following shareholders who are still holding or have increased their stake.

Providence Gold and Minerals, which is director Tom Burrows. He is the only share holder along with Carojon Pty Ltd.

The othe 18 top shareholders have all left.

Currently there is only 1 substantial shareholder in LJ Thompson.


I believe the reason there are so many shareholders is because the stock was a spin off of another company, and as a result shareholders got priority.

Anyone else got some info on SRZ?

Trying to chase up as much as I can.

Would like to see directors buying but you never know now with all the super funds out there.

 

[Ken]

Interesting chart. Didn't realise SRZ has had a number of Spikes along the journey.

Chances of a rise to 40 cents or a 70% gain in shareprice is likely at some point in the future if you look at the stocks history.

Time with SRZ looks like the key, at some point holders of today should get a chance to offload stock at higher than todays price.

It may take 6-12 months, but at some point SRZ will have its turn like with any stock.

They are out to make a significant discovery according to Tom Burrows.

 

[Ken]

SRZ always gets smashed when the sellers come into the general market..


I know there is a word count limit, but we really just need 1 word for the past week...

CRAP!

 

[Ken]

A lot of stocks are testing support levels.

SRZ is one....

My gut is telling me the stock closing at 25 cents is significant, but my brain is telling me let it be...

I already hold a substantial amount and am feeling the pinch of the recent sell off.

With the investments SRZ has.... They are way undervalued....

Very hard to go against the crowd though when everyone else is selling....

 

[motion]

Hey Ken,

I know how you feel, I had this stock for a long time and looked at the charts reviewed the projects but still the market was going againist me, so in the end I had to packup with a loss and move my money to other places.

I still think this has some great projects and I guess when the market is ready it will turn around and get rerated to I think around the 70c-80c mark IMO..

anyway it's still one on the watch list and there are not many left... good luck this is a gem of a company...

 

[jtb]

Ken, I think a close below 24c would be a problem and I'll bail around 20c if thats the way she goes.

I'm wondering if all this Toro/Nova/Oxiana consolidation will not have some impact on Stellar (and also HLX) in the near term particularly due to Hegarty's stated interest in the SA assets (OXR JV with HLX, TOE JV with SRZ and HLX etc).
Both juniors have cash and underlying value so I'm comfortable atm

 

[Ken]

It is worth noting that Archer exploration is new company floating which is being spun out by USA.

So guess what.... seeing as SRZ is a major shareolder in USA, they get an allocation of AXE shares.

AXE was heavily oversubscribed, I applied for them but received my cheque today.


I spoke to the CEO of SRZ and they have invested into AXE though the new float. I dont know how many shares they have, but I suspect it will not be a big parcel due to it being oversubscribed.


Now looking at SRZ's investments:

10.26 million shares in USA - value at 26 cents is around $2.6 million

5.13 million options in USA - options trading at 8 cents - value around $400k

6.667 million option in GOP exerciseable at 20 cents in 2009 (now trading at 36 cents) - profit after conversion is just over $1 million

So roughly you're looking at over $4 million dollars in investments alone. Then you have the tin float which I suspect they will own a bucket load of shares, and a bucket load of options in.

Plus AXE shares if they get a decent stag here there's a quick profit to be made.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Ahoy Officer Ken

I can't find a chart to support your theories

Pigs might fly one day, I guess?

Salute and Gods' speed

 

[Ken]

Captain chazza.

Is there a reason SRZ didn't go below 24 cents during the big sell off?

24 cents is the 52 week low. Sometimes stocks have to test their lows before heading north.

Not all stocks have the perfect platform before take off.

Net tangible assets for this stock were around 17 cents in December.

Price of Uranium has since tripled.

I am not saying the share price is going to a $1.

But I believe in success for SRZ and you are going to see a decent run.

The south Australian Copper belt has been forgotten by investors during the Iron Ore Phase.

There are a lot of companies drilling in South Australia, and their results have not come in yet.

AXT, SRZ, CRJ, VMS, MOX.

Lets just see what interest it creates, because when one company gets a good sample, the nearology flow on effect happens.

I think SRZ will make a discovery.

Thats all that counts. You could have charted PDN from 30 cents to 25 cents and quoted it as a big back in the day.

The investments for SRZ are worth 75% of their share price.