SRF - SurfStitch Group

[Miner]

I have a vague recollection from a discussion with a friend that Motley Fool in their MDP bulletin made certain observation on SRF. Not sure if it was buy or sell. I am not a subscriber of MDP bulletin but of SA and DI bulletins.
When I go to Westfield shopping centres in Perth SRF owned products do not appear to be too encouraging for young generation there even on school holidays.
Do not hold
DYOR

 

[Faramir]

how are you feeling about this stock now?

Hi Percytown

Sorry for not responding for over one year. I just didn't have the time to investigate nor to comment. I do not think SurfStitch is a Buy - even if I took a contrarian position. There are too many risks. I haven't tried to follow this stock. Being too busy but to my surprise, it does pop up in the news. Now it is in a trading halt. SurfStitch is not investment grade. It is not even speccy grade. Even though its all time low could say otherwise.

When one of the founding partner left - what did that tell the investment world?

Here is a chart - not for debate. Not here please. You can tell when the "big" news happened.

 

[Faramir]

I was a loyal a customer of SurfStitch. I am involved with Surfing, Spec Ski Paddling and general swimming. So I have brought two shorts recently when they had a 70% sale on. (One I was happy with, the other I thought, oh well, I got 70% off). If was my first purchase from SurfStitch in many years. I try to look after my stuff - always rinsing them in fresh water after use to prolong their life.

Most of my wear and tear stuff that I wear in the water like Wetsuits, rashies, paddle long pants, etc - I buy from the local shop. The guys there give me great service and we can chat about the local beaches and my endeavours of learning the ways of the surf and ocean. (Spec (surf) Ski paddling is very difficult and expensive.)

I still like SurfStitch, especially during Sales Time and I like their product range. Yet for something as specialised as Spec Ski paddling, I follow what my fellow clubbies wear. Last year, my wetsuit broke whilst surfing and my local shop repaired it free of charge.

I want to make a boast! I want to brag about something:

I AVOIDED A MASSIVE LOSS!

This thread shows how much interest I had in this stock. It showed how I wanted an emotional attachment to this stock. Yet, I kept telling myself that I have no money and thus never brought. Now I want to yell - I avoided this stock! Maybe I will regret saying this in the coming months or years but at least I can say it now. Buying between $1.10 and its high of nearly $2 would have made me look foolish.

Well done to anyone who can make money from any stock like SRF. I am just very relieved that I avoided this disaster and survived last weekend's storm that savaged the beaches.

 

[McLovin]

I was a loyal a customer of SurfStitch. I am involved with Surfing, Spec Ski Paddling and general swimming. So I have brought two shorts recently when they had a 70% sale on. (One I was happy with, the other I thought, oh well, I got 70% off). If was my first purchase from SurfStitch in many years. I try to look after my stuff - always rinsing them in fresh water after use to prolong their life.

Most of my wear and tear stuff that I wear in the water like Wetsuits, rashies, paddle long pants, etc - I buy from the local shop. The guys there give me great service and we can chat about the local beaches and my endeavours of learning the ways of the surf and ocean. (Spec (surf) Ski paddling is very difficult and expensive.)

I still like SurfStitch, especially during Sales Time and I like their product range. Yet for something as specialised as Spec Ski paddling, I follow what my fellow clubbies wear. Last year, my wetsuit broke whilst surfing and my local shop repaired it free of charge.

I want to make a boast! I want to brag about something:

I AVOIDED A MASSIVE LOSS!

This thread shows how much interest I had in this stock. It showed how I wanted an emotional attachment to this stock. Yet, I kept telling myself that I have no money and thus never brought. Now I want to yell - I avoided this stock! Maybe I will regret saying this in the coming months or years but at least I can say it now. Buying between $1.10 and its high of nearly $2 would have made me look foolish.

Well done to anyone who can make money from any stock like SRF. I am just very relieved that I avoided this disaster and survived last weekend's storm that savaged the beaches.

Well done Faramir. Knowing when to say "no", but when you think you can't possibly be wrong is one of the hardest things to do. Don't worry what happens to the stock over the next few months. Let your own judgement guide you. And besides, errors of omission are much easier to deal with than errors of commission, for me anyway!

 

[ROE]

A few online business and tech stock catch on the bandwagon last couple of years and
some of them are questionable investment grade.

When they talk about revenue, million of users and no sign of profit or erratic profit stay the hell away

 

[ROE]

On a related note, the Kogan prospectus forecasts NPAT of $400k (yes k, not m) this year on revenue of ~$200m. Fear not however, FY17 is when the big bucks will start rolling in. EBITDA will rise 138% and NPAT will rise 600%. Revenue will rise at a pedestrian 19%...says the prospectus anyway. Apparently that makes it worth $140m.

Got to jump on the bandwagon before the tide goes out another one to avoid
you outperform the market by doing nothing but avoid these business

 

[galumay]

I want to make a boast! I want to brag about something:

Its not boasting or bragging mate, its a fair observation.

One thing I do is write a decision journal, i do it online on a private forum, but you can do it on paper or whatever. As well as writing about the Companies I become a part owner of, i also write about ones I decided not too - and document the reasons for not purchasing and my predictions for the future of the business.

Its interesting to look back and see if you were right for the right reasons, or right for a reason unrelated to your thinking at the time, or wrong, but your analysis was still correct, and finally if you were wrong, and you got it wrong!

I update my decision analysis infrequently and irregulary as well.

In this case some of your observations in earlier posts are stronger and more insightful than others you have made in the past - it seems to me you are growing a little in confidence about your processes for selecting companies to invest in which is a good thing!

 

[Faramir]

Thank you Ves. Thank you ROE.
Thank you Galumay.

 

[Miner]

I have a vague recollection from a discussion with a friend that Motley Fool in their MDP bulletin made certain observation on SRF. Not sure if it was buy or sell. I am not a subscriber of MDP bulletin but of SA and DI bulletins.
When I go to Westfield shopping centres in Perth SRF owned products do not appear to be too encouraging for young generation there even on school holidays.
Do not hold
DYOR

folks this could be interesting.
motley fool advised its premium million dollar portfolio newsletter customers paying some $0000 per year to buy SRF in February and called 11 june to sell it. SO SRF mis a sale now by motley. you could question what kind of long term recommendation this newsletter this journal provides to its customers.
Any way, do your research - i do not hold it. given the extract for information only.

 

[Triathlete]

folks this could be interesting.
motley fool advised its premium million dollar portfolio newsletter customers paying some $0000 per year to buy SRF in February and called 11 june to sell it. SO SRF mis a sale now by motley. you could question what kind of long term recommendation this newsletter this journal provides to its customers.
Any way, do your research - i do not hold it. given the extract for information only.

That is interesting.....I thought I would put up a chart to see if we could see anything significant forming on the chart around the time of their so called recommendation. Do you have what type of buy this was in their report?? because to me it was nothing more than speculative play.

It seems from a technical view that a double top had formed and confirmed week ending 11/12/2015 this is a bearish signal so if you held at the time you should have exited at the open on 14/12/2015 @ $1.87. So at least 6 weeks before their recommendation.

A double top will usually retrace in price between 150% to 250% from the high which is what eventually happened here.

I also looked at the fundamentals from stock doctor and came up with:

June 14 Early warning
Dec 14 Distress
Jun 15 Marginal
Dec 15 Marginal

Unless this was a speculative play you would have stayed away.

 

[piggybank]

Hi Triathlete,

Thanks for another great chart.

However, over the years I was of the impression that a double top was confirmed when the price closed below the lowest point of the middle bar, candlestick, etc of the pattern.

On your charts the middle part of the double top pattern, the lowest point was the price $1.375 (week ending 9th Oct 2015).

The price fell through and closed below this price between 22 - 26th February (this year) that would confirm a double top, so I thought.

Would you be as kind as to explain how you confirmed a double top from the bar ending on he 11th Dec 2015 please? or have I misread the chart?

Cheers
PB

 

[Triathlete]

Hi Triathlete,

Thanks for another great chart.

However, over the years I was of the impression that a double top was confirmed when the price closed below the lowest point of the middle bar, candlestick, etc of the pattern.

On your charts the middle part of the double top pattern, the lowest point was the price $1.375 (week ending 9th Oct 2015).

The price fell through and closed below this price between 22 - 26th February (this year) that would confirm a double top, so I thought.

Would you be as kind as to explain how you confirmed a double top from the bar ending on he 11th Dec 2015 please? or have I misread the chart?

Cheers
PB

Hi PB,

Industry experts suggest that a double top is not confirmed until the low between the tops is broken, but this can lead to a lot of lost profit. It is recommended that once the second peak is confirmed then the double top is confirmed and you should exit your position.

Also remember that there is usually an exit well before a double top is formed so if you are not out already you better be at the earliest of the double top confirmation as I have mentioned.

An important point to remember is that the second peak for a double top is only confirmed when you see a down move, therefore a down bar must be present which is what I have on the chart. I also like to see the tops no more than 3% difference in price.

 

[Boggo]

No comment required.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/reta...tion-over-share-wipe-out-20170522-gwatsh.html

Weekly chart