Solar stocks - when will Australia wake up?

[sunboy]

Yes, I am the CEO of Solco

No, my intention for this chat is that I want to have discussions considering solar or generally renewable energy companies. Thank you for your two recommendations. I am afraid , they are not listed but the two companies show the great possibility within a country where the inhabitants are not aware about the potential of this market.
I only gave Solco as an example. Solco turned from a non-profit company to a small star with a profit of 3-4 Mio $. Furthermore a dividend was distributed. This is a perfect example for growing and sustainable business. (My stocks are not important.) Quality is important, the future will show the logical consequence. Solco has a current P/E ratio of 4. The peer group has a value of 20. That ´s enough from my side.
So beside the hints in the last statement, I am afraid Australia is very unaware and inactive. Who has other solar/wind/geothermal energy stocks in his portfolio? That would be interesting.
What is your favourite?

 

[sunboy]

Sounds gooooood

Tue, 6 Jul 2010 09:47:00 +1000 17 hours, 52 minutes ago

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 6 July 2010 PROFIT GUIDANCE Solco on track for record profit of $3.15 million Solco Limited (ASX: SOO) is pleased to provide profit guidance for the 2010 financial year, with the Company expecting to report a profit before tax of $3.15 million for the 12 months to 30 June 2010. The result, which is subject to finalisation and audit, would represent a 76% increase on the previous financial year. Group turnover for the year is expected to be $34.5 million, a 24% increase on the previous corresponding period.

Solco’s stronger trading performance in FY10 occurred on the back on increased demand for the company’s solar energy products, which it wholesales and distributes nationally. The result also demonstrates Solco’s ability to maintain a robust growth path while preserving its strong operating margins. It also represents the second consecutive year of profit growth since the finalisation of the restructure of Solco’s board and senior management team in 2008.

Solco has achieved the FY2010 earnings growth despite facing significant challenges during the year, including downward pressure on product prices, exchange rate fluctuations and stock shortages. Solco’s stock management, tight control over overheads and foreign exchange risk management minimised the effect on profit margins. Outlook for FY2011 The solar renewable market in Australian has grown markedly in the past 3 years, supported by government incentives, rapidly falling product prices, rising energy costs, and community awareness.

Solco expects this situation to continue in FY2011. However, until grid parity is reached, which puts solar on an equal cost footing to conventional energy, unforeseen changes in government policies may have a dampening effect on the market. David Richardson, Chairman said “I’m extremely pleased with Solco’s continued ability to deliver profitable growth within its core business.

This places the team at Solco in a solid position to drive our next stage of strategic expansion within the expanding renewable energy market.” For further information, please contact Mark Norman, CEO and Managing Director Phone +61 (8) 9334 8100 SOLCO LTD ABN 27 084 656 691 12 Brennan Way, Belmont, Western Australia 6104 Office: 61-8-9334 8108 Freecall 1800 454 161 Fax: 61-8-9334 8199 Web: www.solco.com.au.

 

[Tysonboss1]

In the early 20th century you could easily see that the motor vehicle was the way of the future and was going to change the world. An astute investor may believe that there was big money to be had investing in motor car manfacturers.

However out of the 3000 motor vehicle companies that existed, only 3 remain today.

just because something is going to change the world, does not mean it is automatically going to make a good investment.

I will invest in solar when there is more visability on which companies are going to produce durable longterm returns, and which will disappear.

 

[SteveinSA]

sunboy
have you any experience with solar panels! for e.g.

At 15% efficiency 10 panels each measuring 1 meter by 1 meter would power 1.5 bars on an electric heater. 20 panels would power an electric kettle. This of course assumes that the sun is shining

cheers laurie

Photovoltaic efficiency is now well over 20% and it' on your roof and the pwer generated is free. Compare this to power stations with 30% efficiency, less the losses in transformers and transmission lines. You will be lucky if 5% of the original power generated is available to consumers. With smart grids synchronising power from multiple renewable resources, - no contest.

 

[pixel]

Photovoltaic efficiency is now well over 20% and it' on your roof and the pwer generated is free. Compare this to power stations with 30% efficiency, less the losses in transformers and transmission lines. You will be lucky if 5% of the original power generated is available to consumers. With smart grids synchronising power from multiple renewable resources, - no contest.

Quite agree, Steve - in part from own experience:
When we installed a 1KW PV system on our roof, I calculated (estimated) a payback period of roughly 10 years. Seeing that power costs would continue to go up, I figured that time would come down; but even so, I would've made the investment as it adds value to our house, if ever we need to sell.

After 10 1/2 months and 1500 units produced, the calculation base has indeed changed considerably - even to the point that I consider doubling the capacity. There is firstly the increased feed-in tariff, which almost triples the income from net exports, from about 16c to 47c; moreover, the cost of imported power has meanwhile increased from last year's 17c to a little over 20c. Based on a mix of 1450 units exported and 1750 used ourselves reducing the need to import, the annual pay-back amounts to roughly $1,050. Discounting the initial government co-payment, the system will have cost us about $7,500. You do the math.

PS: Just anticipating the objection that the "true" cost including the government's incentive would be more than double those $7500: I'm aware of that, but I'm not responsible for government's fiscal decisions. I merely take advantage of them where applicable. Just as I take advantage of tax laws if I receive franking credits from dividends paid and taxed by companies, the shares of which I hold.

 

[Smurf1976]

Compare this to power stations with 30% efficiency, less the losses in transformers and transmission lines. You will be lucky if 5% of the original power generated is available to consumers.

Transmission and distribution losses from power station to household consumers rarely exceed 10% of power sent out from the power station. It's lower in densely populated areas, higher in the bush but not excessively so.

Most of that loss occurs in the local distribution network - high voltage transmission is around 96% efficient overall (varies a bit with location etc).

 

[WhitsundaysWoman]

Transmission and distribution losses from power station to household consumers rarely exceed 10% of power sent out from the power station. It's lower in densely populated areas, higher in the bush but not excessively so.

Most of that loss occurs in the local distribution network - high voltage transmission is around 96% efficient overall (varies a bit with location etc).

My hubby was reading this thread, and just wanted to clarify this information. Of the energy liberated by the burning of coal, and the energy generated by hydroelectricity, only 17% of the total was delivered to customers premises. Figures are from NSW in the early 90s. Most of the energy lost is in conversion from heat to electricity at power generation. The efficiency is unlikely to have significantly increased since the early 90s. Sorry for the off-topic reply.

 

[Smurf1976]

My hubby was reading this thread, and just wanted to clarify this information. Of the energy liberated by the burning of coal, and the energy generated by hydroelectricity, only 17% of the total was delivered to customers premises. Figures are from NSW in the early 90s. Most of the energy lost is in conversion from heat to electricity at power generation. The efficiency is unlikely to have significantly increased since the early 90s. Sorry for the off-topic reply.

Here in Tasmania, transmission has historically been done as cheaply as possible since it was never the focus of an industry aimed at scaling up baseload energy production and keeping prices low so as to attract industry and create employment (which was the real objective - generating cheap power was just a means of creating jobs in factories).

The end result was that by the 90's we had a very strained transmission system, some of it literally original (ie circa 1916) but we were still only losing only about 6% of total energy generated and much of that was in the local distribution system. That is, losses of about 10% from power stations to houses, or about 4% from power stations to major industry.

The figures you quote for NSW largely relate to losses at the power stations which are in the order of two thirds of the energy contained in the coal. Plus losses running pumped storage schemes etc, and additional losses when power stations aren't efficiently loaded. That is, they are mostly losses in generation rather than transmission or distribution. You would still have those losses even if you lived literally next to a major power station, since the losses are at the power station itself.

Coal-fired generation (and gas or oil or nuclear) is inherently inefficient with large losses. That loss is in electricity generation itself, not transmitting it to the end users (except remote areas etc where transmission losses can be quite high).

With the system as it exists today, it is quite possible to transmit electricity from Qld into NSW then into Victoria and then to Tas or SA. But most of the losses occur before it gets out of the power station. The loss between Vic and Tas, for example, is 5.5% at the extreme (usually lower - it depends on actual transfer volumes).

 

[roland]

Not sure if this has been noted, but if you are interested in solar, then the Spanish have been utilising a system of solar with liquid salt for heat storage through non solar periods, i.e. night time. Potentially a base load system: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-to-use-solar-energy-at-night

 

[sunboy]

Thank you for your interesting discussions. Don ´t forget the home market guys!!

ASX Announcement
16 November 2010
SOLCO DECLARES DIVIDEND PAYMENT
50% increase on FY2009 dividend payment
Solco Limited (ASX: SOO) is pleased to announce a dividend payment for shareholders of 0.375
cents per share relating to the financial period ending 30 June 2010, following a second consecutive
year of record profit and growth.
The Company, an established and profitable solar energy wholesale supplier, will provide
shareholders with a total dividend of approximately AUD$750,000, a 50% increase on its maiden
dividend payment in 2009.
Dividend details
Amount: 0.375 cents ($0.00375) per share
Franked/ Unfranked: Unfranked
Record Date: 26th November 2010
Anticipated payment date: 18 January 2011
Solco’s Chief Executive Officer Mark Norman said he was pleased to continue providing strong
shareholders returns.
“We believe this dividend payment reflects Solco’s growing status as profitable company - and a
leading entity within Australia’s wholesale solar energy supply sector. In the last financial year we
achieved a record 84% increase in profit before tax, and are pleased to reward our shareholders for
their continued support,” said Mr Norman.
“Through the continued growth of our core divisions and the expansion of our national sales
network and capabilities, we are currently on track to sustain this growth in the 2011 financial
year.”
ENDS

 

[damien275x]

Sunboy, give it up

You've spent the last 4 years of your life talking up a stock that has gone nowhere but down over this period.

How sad and pathetic.

 

[explod]

Sunboy, give it up

You've spent the last 4 years of your life talking up a stock that has gone nowhere but down over this period.

How sad and pathetic.

Sorry but have to agree. Solar just does not have the sentiment or the grunt to overcome the current expansionist mentality.

As an investor you have to go with the flow.

Interesting that nuclear has hit the discussions again. As much as many hate the idea it has the grunt needed to replace coal in the shorter term. I am talking 8 to 10 years of course to come on line.

In the longer run a combination of thermal, wave, wind or solar may get there, but on current needs they are p....... against the breeze.

And I am a member of the Greens mind you. To get anywhere across the entire globe common sense needs to prevail

 

[pixel]

I wouldn't call SOO "pathetic". OK, so the chart went South from the High in 2007 until November 08; but about 95% of all stocks went down during that period. Recovering from a low 2c to where they're now is satisfactory, and a lot of ASX companies would sell their grandmothers for a rise like that.


Do they really have 200M shares issued? If so, the daily turnover suggests holders have a higher opinion of their company than non-holders. "Tightly held" some people call it. Now, if the ascending triangle were to follow the rules and break to the upside, I'd be happy to get a foot in at 13-14c. Must set an alert.

 

[skc]

Sunboy, give it up

You've spent the last 4 years of your life talking up a stock that has gone nowhere but down over this period.

How sad and pathetic.

Damien it's ok to disagree but it's a bit rude to call somebody sad and pathetic just because they made a wrong call or two...

Pixel - In case you are interested in actual numbers on the SOO thread I have posted a few times there in the past (if you haven't been there already).

 

[pixel]

Pixel - In case you are interested in actual numbers on the SOO thread I have posted a few times there in the past (if you haven't been there already).

I have heen there - now

btw, I hold a small position SOO myself.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Been reading this thread for a while, and while I don't think Australia is ready to wake up yet, I think the rest of the World is ....... finally. And they're waking up to solar thermal, not PV.

The Cancun conference seems to be achieving some breakthroughs, and I reckon it's a marker of changed sentiment towards climate change and renewable energies.

The opportunities will be found primarily in overseas markets, not here. Big business and governments here are stuck in old fashioned world views.

copied from gigaom.com-

eSolar: With a fresh $130 million from Google, Idealab and Oak, eSolar says it has “secured land rights” in the southwestern United States to produce over 1 GW of power and will have a power plant up and running later this year in southern California. The company uses a central power tower surrounded by smaller-than-usual heliostats, allowing the company to build 25 MW clusters.

Ausra: Ausra has attracted a lot of media attention for both its rapid expansion from Australia to the States and its big name investors, Khosla and Kleiner, who’ve invested $70 million — and Ausra is already looking for $150 million in Series C. Ausra’s Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector technology uses cheap, flat mirrors to heat tubes of water. The startup has plans for a manufacturing facility near Las Vegas and has signed a power purchase agreement with PG&E for 177 MW from Ausra’s farm in San Luis Obispo County, Calif.

Stirling Energy Systems: Stirling has two large pending projects. Solar One in the Mojave Desert will have 500 MW of capacity, with the option to expand to 850 MW while Solar Two, sited in the Imperial Valley near El Centro, Calif., will have 300 MW of capacity with the option to expand up to 900 MW. Each site is contracted for a 20-year power purchase agreement with Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric, respectively. It also just raised a whopping $100 million from NTR plc.

Infinia: With 25 years of Stirling engine experience, Infinia has a gaggle of A-list backers including Vinod Khosla’s Khosla Ventures, Bill Gross’ Idealab and Paul Allen’s Vulcan Capital; it’s raised $66.5 million to date. Infinia’s technology is similar to Stirling’s and uses mirrored concentrator dishes to track the sun and reflect its rays into a highly efficient Stirling heat engine.

SolarReserve: Spun out from aerospace giant Hamilton Sundstrand, itself a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., SolarReserve is one of the most recent entrants. Its technology, developed by rocket maker Rocketdyne, uses molten salt to store energy and produce power round the clock. SolarReserve plans to have its first solar plant online by the end of 2010. SolarReserve has not disclosed any outside investors or funding but is working with DOE money.

Solel: With a massive $105 million investment from Ecofin, Solel has recently announced a plans for a $140 million construction facility in Spain. The company has an agreement with PG&E for 553 MW from Solel’s Mojave Solar Park which uses parabolic trough technology and is scheduled for completion in 2011. Solel’s parabolic trough technology has been around for decades and has been used in test plants for 20 years.

BrightSource: Based in Oakland, Calif., BrightSource just signed a massive deal wit PG&E for 500 MW of solar thermal power with option for another 400 MW (totally 900 MW). BrightSource, with its Israeli subsidiary, has an impressive list of investors — VantagePoint Venture Partners, Morgan Stanley, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, J.P. Morgan, and Chevron Technology Ventures — but has announced less than $50 million in funding. BrightSource’s technology uses a central power tower surrounded by heliostats in what it calls “solar power clusters,” each of which can produce 100 MW of energy.

SkyFuel: Using parabolic-trough technology, SkyFuel says its secret lies in its cheap “ReflecTech” mirrored lining, which it says is stronger and cheaper than glass and mirrors. We’re still waiting to hear about SkyFuel’s projects, but last we heard G.C. Andersen Partners was leading a second round of financing for the Albuquerque, N.M.-based startup.

Abengoa Solar: Part of Spanish renewable energy giant Abengoa, this solar subsidiary has signed on to provide 280 MW of solar thermal power to Arizona Public Service from a plant near Gila Bend, Ariz., scheduled for completion in 2011.

FPL Energy: FPL has just filed for a 250 MW plant in the Mojave with plans to scale it up to 850 MW by 2015. The plant, called the Beacon Solar Energy Project, will use parabolic-trough technology. FPL, along with Carlyle and Sunray, also have a 354 MW Solar Energy Generating Systems plant. FPL operates natural gas, wind, solar, hydroelectric and nuclear power plants.

Acciona: Another Spanish renewable energy player, Acciona has a 64 MW plant called Nevada Solar One outside Las Vegas that was one of the first large-scale solar thermal plants in the United States.

 

[Caveman]

To me this solar industry seems to be dependant on goverment handouts,and most installers are sole traders anyway.Can anyone point me to a solar stock that is say paying a 6% dividend on current price?

 

[tothemax6]

Photovoltaic efficiency is now well over 20% and it' on your roof and the pwer generated is free. Compare this to power stations with 30% efficiency, less the losses in transformers and transmission lines. You will be lucky if 5% of the original power generated is available to consumers. With smart grids synchronising power from multiple renewable resources, - no contest.

The power density is the issue. It is still more expensive to produce solar cells per kW than it is to produce coal stations and distribution grids.

 

[sunboy]

28 June 2011

ASX Announcement

SOLCO FORECASTS RECORD REVENUE AND PROFIT FOR FY2011

Highlights:
• Forecast record revenue of $52 million for FY2011
• Revenue growth of more than 50 per cent on FY2010
• Forecast record pre-tax profit of nearly $3.6 million
• Record breaking sales of products during May
• Investment in Projects and Power Divisions reflects market opportunities
• Solar system cost reductions continue to present upside in making solar power
appealing to the market

Solco Limited (ASX: SOO) (“Solco” or “the Company”) is pleased to provide profit
guidance for the 2011 financial year. The Company expects to report a pre-tax profit of
nearly $3.6 million for the 12 months to 30 June 2011 or approximately 6.9 per cent.
The forecast revenue of approximately $52 million represents more than 50 per cent
growth from $34.5 million in 2010. This is a result of increased demand for the
Company’s solar products as well as securing several exclusive distribution
agreements with international manufacturers.
Executive Chairman David Richardson said that the upside in the solar industry is now
becoming clear, with demand from consumers who are facing rising power prices being
complemented by a strong Australian dollar and lower prices for manufactured
products.
“As the price of solar panels and components continue to fall rapidly, solar power
systems are becoming increasingly affordable at the same time as the cost of
electricity generated by traditional means is rising steadily around the nation. This
means there is potential to reach the point known as ‘grid parity’ faster than
anticipated. As solar becomes increasingly competitive with traditional power, a
sustainable market for residential and commercial photovoltaic solar systems is
becoming a nearer-term reality,” he said.
In January 2011, the Board appointed Executive Director Mark Norman to head the
Company’s Power Division and assist John Hebenton, the newly appointed Executive
Manager of the Projects Division. Both Divisions are working closely together to better
position Solco to have a significant presence in the commercial power generation
market as grid parity is attained.
“We aim to build, own and operate grid, hybrid, mini-grid and remote solar projects,
capitalising on a major growth period for the solar power generation market.” Mr
Richardson said.
“Our investment in this area is progressing well and we are receiving considerable
interest from a very wide range of organisations seeking to involve Solco in their power
projects in either a development role or long-term operator,”
In January 2011 the Company’s Solar Pumps Division entered into an exclusive supply
agreement with international solar pump manufacturer Lorentz. Following this
agreement, the Board approved the establishment of a National Sales and Marketing
team to grow the solar pumps business across a range of sectors from mining and
agriculture to commercial and residential.
To reflect the strong growth outlook in its Solar Products division, Solco has also
continued to invest in its national sales network with the strengthening of the
management team in Queensland and Victoria.

Outlook for FY2012
Continuing growth in all areas of the solar market, combined with falling prices for
components of solar systems and a continuing strong trend for the Australian dollar
provide a positive outlook for the Products Division. However, the Federal
Government’s reduction of the multiplier under the RET scheme at 30 June 2011 may
inject some uncertainty into the solar power sector at the start of the new financial year.
A range of opportunities that have already been presented to the Projects and Power
Division mean that the Company’s investment in this area is expected to produce
results during the year that will contribute to both revenue and profit.
ENDS

 

[bob99]

28 June 2011

ASX Announcement

SOLCO FORECASTS RECORD REVENUE AND PROFIT FOR FY2011

I have wasted 30 mins of my life I will never get back reading this shameless thread of self-promoting nonsense.

However, I see this "record revenue" has translated into a massive nothing in share value. And going back over the past 12mths, the only movement has been down. I do take my hat off to you though, your constant and relentless banging away is commendable, however few, if anyone is listing to you, including me. Hopefully I might revisit this thread again in 12 months and something might have changed, yet my money is better elsewhere.