Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SO4 - Salt Lake Potash

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The Triangle said:
Potash is still overheated in WA. Lots of players, lots of projects, lots of shenanigans, lots of opportunity to make mistakes.

5 year chart is essentially a flat line. Same with KLL. APC, AMN. Only those who have traded in and out over 5 years have made money. Oh and the directors and employees. Just because a project gets up and going (eventually) doesn't mean it will make appropriate levels of returns for mom and dad shareholders.

I am still skeptical of the presentations, forecasts, feasibility from all of these players.
Click to expand...
It sounds as though the plant commissioning is finished and operational tuning is happening, so I guess it won't be long before we know if it makes money or not.
I do hold, so hopefully they do make money. :xyxthumbs

 
SO4 is a share quoted on the London market as well as the ASX. The collapse in the UK of Yorkshire, England major potash company Sirius Minerals may have rubbed off on to Salt Lake Potash. Particularly as they started raising more and more cash the same as Sirius did. So now under a cloud though the lowest price in 2015 was 2.5p ( 5.1c - exchange rate then A$2.05 to GB£). So a share to ponder over.
 
DISASTER! has struck at SO4 with a Trading Halt on the ASX and Suspension on London's AIM market due to a downgrade and future cash raising. Fortunately, I've already made a good deal since the price at GB£0.025 in 2015 so have held a watching brief for a few years now. Still, a share to ponder over but the Sirius Minerals debacle has sent vast black clouds over the horizon.
uk.advfn.com

Salt Lake Potash Limited Statement re. Suspension (5874G)

Salt Lake Potash Limited 27 July 2021 27 July 2021 AIM/ASX Code: SO4 SALT LAKE POTASH LIMITED ASX Trading Halt and AIM Suspension...
uk.advfn.com
 
sptrawler said:
Sounds like I will be burnt again.
Click to expand...
Games will be played once trading starts again as discussions wonder at what price a cash-raising may be done at. There is a method of getting funds in the UK via 'Primary Bid' which they could use: https://primarybid.com/home/

There is sometimes a way of getting money back in these situations as the share price may well plunge too far. It takes a lot of patience at times or on other occasions watching trades and jumping in quickly. As the UK and Australia trade differently, there are different games to be played.

Sometimes on the ASX leaving a very low limit order price to buy can come off. Some want to get out quickly and just accept a market price. For instance, trades are going through 20c to 22c so I place bids to buy at 12c, 13c, 14c, and 15c. Sometimes piles of sales come in wiping out all the offers to buy in market depth. So someone wanting market price, usually from the UK, gets only 12c. Then I sell quickly when the price rises.

On AIM Market Makers set the bid and offer spread and in a difficult situation for them it becomes quite wide. With trades going through 17p - 25p. Suddenly masses of sales come in and the MMs must give a market price to sell. The price crashes to 10p - 15p and a price to buy maybe just 13p within the spread with MMs under pressure. Wait a while, often not long, and a chance to get out at maybe 17p and bingo 30% profit in a matter of minutes if lucky.

Not for the faint-hearted or sleepy characters who want too much certainty or ask questions. Good luck.
 
noirua said:
Games will be played once trading starts again as discussions wonder at what price a cash-raising may be done at. There is a method of getting funds in the UK via 'Primary Bid' which they could use: https://primarybid.com/home/

There is sometimes a way of getting money back in these situations as the share price may well plunge too far. It takes a lot of patience at times or on other occasions watching trades and jumping in quickly. As the UK and Australia trade differently, there are different games to be played.

Sometimes on the ASX leaving a very low limit order price to buy can come off. Some want to get out quickly and just accept a market price. For instance, trades are going through 20c to 22c so I place bids to buy at 12c, 13c, 14c, and 15c. Sometimes piles of sales come in wiping out all the offers to buy in market depth. So someone wanting market price, usually from the UK, gets only 12c. Then I sell quickly when the price rises.

On AIM Market Makers set the bid and offer spread and in a difficult situation for them it becomes quite wide. With trades going through 17p - 25p. Suddenly masses of sales come in and the MMs must give a market price to sell. The price crashes to 10p - 15p and a price to buy maybe just 13p within the spread with MMs under pressure. Wait a while, often not long, and a chance to get out at maybe 17p and bingo 30% profit in a matter of minutes if lucky.

Not for the faint-hearted or sleepy characters who want too much certainty or ask questions. Good luck.
Click to expand...
Yes, it is interesting that they had a cap raising a couple of months ago, plant 95% complete, now all goes pear shaped. Not a good look, one wonders as to the legal position.
 
Whether they manage to raise cash or maybe try to take the route of involving a major is guessology. The main problem is the position of existing loans and banks will be seeking a way out rather than committing an overdraft or loan position that could go down the tubes. The first base for SO4 is trying to show a way out while letting other lenders know that if they don't commit they are in danger of losing the lot.

SO4 recently raised cash at 35.5c and back in 2015 at 2.5p.

Main opportunists will be working out the likely placing price and seeing an entry point below that whilst the storm clouds remain. My personal guess is 5p 9.5c for a buying price punt hoping for a cash-raising at 15c eventually. A complete gamble though many losers become winners when bad news causes a loss and eventually a good buying opportunity.
 
I've taken a gamble buying SO4 shares on London's AIM market at an average 4.35p 8.1c a share. The shares are suspended on ASX until 13 September. That's the third change so it does mean matters are taking much longer than expected - draw whatever conclusion you want to from that.
 
noirua said:
The shares are suspended on ASX until 13 September.
Click to expand...
That is tomorrow.

and on 09 Sept, a further request (#5) that ...
... the Company's securities remain in voluntary suspension pending the finalisation and release of an announcement by the Company in relation to an update on its Lake Way Project. The Company requests the suspension to be extended to 27 September 2021 at this stage. The Company is also responding to ASX queries.
Click to expand...
 
Dona Ferentes said:
That is tomorrow.

and on 09 Sept, a further request (#5) that ...
Click to expand...
Now for those not in the know this could be a gamble to nothing or not very much like Sirius Minerals formerly LSE: SXX and now part of Anglo American: https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/anglo-american-sirius-minerals-2/#:~:text=Anglo American has agreed a,primarily used as a fertiliser.

Anglo American's acquisition offer valued Sirius at 5.5 pence ($0.07) per share – representing a premium of 34.1% to the share price at the close of play on 7 January, when the two parties made the initial agreement.

SXX shares peaked at 43p and fell to a low point of 3.5p and taken over at 5.5p. So a loss of 87% for a few and a profit of 57% for a few. So we can see the gamble at SO4!
As to SO4 only the London AIM market shows the full chart of events: http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L^SO4&p=9&t=46&vol=1

So from all this you may be able to work out something for yourself?

There is an unsubstantiated rumour that a loan deal is due to be finalised at 7c a share or 3.75p. Probably rubbish but you cannot be sure to be sure.
The share price if a deal is done is a guess as we can't be sure which way the market will take it. Maybe it would be joyful and relieved or on the other hand somewhat piddled off with the events with trust killed stone dead.
 
Last edited:
Appointment of CEO Salt Lake Potash (SO4 or the Company) is pleased to advise that Isak Buitendag has been appointed as CEO of the Company, subject to requotation of the Company’s securities on the ASX. • Mr. Buitendag will be joining from his position as General Manager of Transformation at Kazzinc (69.7% owned by Glencore). • Prior to Kazzinc, he was Vice President of Operations and Vice President of Development at Kazchrome, the largest ferrochrome producer in the world. • Mr. Buitendag has significant experience in Executive roles within the mining industry in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Africa, including at BHP and Fortescue. • In an Executive capacity, he has led teams in project development and minerals processing and has a track record of delivering business turnarounds. • The SO4 board believes Mr. Buitendag’s skills and reputation as a disciplined operator and manager will serve shareholders well and look forward to his leadership bringing the Lake Way Project into a sustainable, profitable operation. “I’m excited to be joining SO4 at such a critical stage of its development and look forward to working with the team to deliver Lake Way and grow the business into a meaningful player in the global SOP market".​
 
TigerByTheTail - 13 Sep 2021 - 09:30:47 - 720 of 722SALT LAKE POTASH LIMITED - SO4
Today's news probably eliminates / reduces one of the worst risks here - that of immediate administration.
You have to think that the new CEO wouldn't join the company without a fair degree of informed confidence that the required funding will be raised.
But there are still lots of questions:
1. I'm assuming that the new money will be equity rather than debt. But how much dilution and at what share price?
2. The new guy has no experience of salt evaporation. It's worth reading what they say about him on Hot Copper as well.
3. The new guy has worked a great deal for Glencore, and Glencore engineers are reported to have been on site. Is this going to end up with a partial or complete Glencore takeover? The general commodity outlook for fertilizers is strong, so the operation might appeal to a predator despite its current problems.
p.s. Today's RNS the first time the world "turnaround" has been used for the current situation. We still haven't had the full confession of the plant's obvious problems yet.
 
The problems they encountered at the final live commissioning phase certainly didn't sound insurmountable, it just sounded as though it would be an intitial throughput issue, which would affect cash flow.
 

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