SLX - Silex Systems

[Sean K]

Not sure how any average punter can tell that people are buying this from overseas either.

Suppose this is one way:

1508 [Dow Jones] Silex Systems (SLX.AU) bucks negative market trend, surging 7.9% to record A$9.27 on lively trading of 578,614, up by half since Feb. 27, up 28% in a week. Powerful surge has attracted interest from stock exchange, newspapers, spurring coverage that's helping SLX reach for the sky. Investors heartened by news JV partner GE aims to shorten timeline, commercialize SLX uranium enrichment technology; increased interest from international financial community in SLX activities, particularly for uranium enrichment, high-efficiency solar conversion cells; offshore fund buying of SLX shares. (RCB)

 

[MichaelD]

well done Michael D.

It's nothing to do with skill. It's just a signal like many other signals. It is the nature of long term trend following to capture these sorts of outliers. If it wasn't this one, it would have been another.

Must be tempting to lock in some profits Michael?

Grabbing one's profits and running is the worst possible thing you can do to the overall expectancy of a long term trend following system, so no, there is no desire to lock in profits. To put this another way, it is best not to fall in love with open equity.

SLX will declare in due course when it is time to exit. I will, however, also mention that I've profitably traded some of the breakouts in my short term system for a little extra cream on top.

 

[nizar]

It's nothing to do with skill. It's just a signal like many other signals. It is the nature of long term trend following to capture these sorts of outliers. If it wasn't this one, it would have been another.
Grabbing one's profits and running is the worst possible thing you can do to the overall expectancy of a long term trend following system, so no, there is no desire to lock in profits. To put this another way, it is best not to fall in love with open equity.

SLX will declare in due course when it is time to exit. I will, however, also mention that I've profitably traded some of the breakouts in my short term system for a little extra cream on top.

You should write a book.
Seriously.
But then again why would waste your time, trading is probably more profitable.
(and of course u cant backtest royalties to see if writing a book is, or is likely to be profitable LOL)

 

[MichaelD]

You should write a book.
Seriously.
But then again why would waste your time, trading is probably more profitable.
(and of course u cant backtest royalties to see if writing a book is, or is likely to be profitable LOL)

Hehe. IMO lots of long term trend followers have done exactly that to help pay the bills in between outlier trades.

At the moment, I'd prefer to spend my time honing the skills required to extract a profit from falling markets.

 

[Portfolio]

Why wouldnt GE just take them over if there was that much upside? I'm sure they could find $500 million. The people in the know (directors) are selling not buying which makes me think this stock is being ramped rather than anything fundamental.

 

[Sainter]

Portfolio,
Are you downramping? Or did you not read the weekend AFR? The answer was there-the directors owns bucketloads of shares, and this is the only trade they've done since 2004. AND it was only done 'cos an institution was at them so they could get a decent number of shares without pushing the price way, way up. I am guessing that the relevant institution is also on a nod and a wink to continue to buy x number of shares which, as we know, has pushed the price up.
If you knew what you were talking about wrt Silex, you would not be making such comments.
Cheers!

 

[Jimminy]

Just an observation, but the buy side for this morning is quite incredible. Sitting here with big grin.

 

[michael_selway]

Just an observation, but the buy side for this morning is quite incredible. Sitting here with big grin.

This company has done very well.

Do u know when it's forecast to be profitable?

thx

MS

 

[explod]

You should write a book.
Seriously.
But then again why would waste your time, trading is probably more profitable.
(and of course u cant backtest royalties to see if writing a book is, or is likely to be profitable LOL)

There is a very good book covering this subject in clear and detailed form. Check out "Trend Following" Michael Covel, Prentice Hall 2004. I have improved my returns very positively since taking it on board. The punch line: a trend is your friend until the bend. At that point a proportional time scale or drop stop loss percentage should have been determined for exit. And by the way, I like the way this trend is developing

I have no connection with book sales or the publisher etc., nor am I qualified to give financial advice

 

[Sainter]

This company has done very well.

Do u know when it's forecast to be profitable?

thx

MS

Michael,
Depends. For U, if it works, timeline was originally about 2013 (excluding milestone payments), but GE is looking at shortening that by 2 or so years = 2011. Note SLX is effectively 'free carried' on this, with no further costs payable by SLX-GE is paying for it all, including the research/development.
If solar cells work, then they might start getting income late 07/08, profitable 08/09. Look for a partner to bankroll the production side of things (their cost to partner up with what is shaping up to be the most efficient solar technology in the world) with majority maintained by SLX.
But SLX will be more fully priced before then.
This is a 'buy if you believe' stock.
Cheers!

 

[Jimminy]

and plenty believe....testing $11.00 today. High of $10.95.

Ever since news of GE fast-tracking the laser technology for u enrichment has let slip, this share has had a rocket under it. The chart is quite scary. When does one jump and pull the parachute???

Never I say - this one in the superfund for me.

 

[Jimminy]

up 15% as I type......wowee $11.44. Kachingggg....

 

[DionM]

Wow ... crazy growth today.

And I thought $9 was the peak

 

[nizar]

There is a very good book covering this subject in clear and detailed form. Check out "Trend Following" Michael Covel, Prentice Hall 2004. I have improved my returns very positively since taking it on board. The punch line: a trend is your friend until the bend. At that point a proportional time scale or drop stop loss percentage should have been determined for exit. And by the way, I like the way this trend is developing

I have no connection with book sales or the publisher etc., nor am I qualified to give financial advice

Funny you mention that book as im in the middle of reading it RIGHT NOW.
Its gold really.
A real eye-opener.

 

[MichaelD]

Some apt quotes:

"Stocks will run harder and further than you ever thought possible."
"The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Having had this in my portfolio for a while, I have been used to seeing it trading with a fairly wide spread and sedate volumes.

Until today, I interpreted the recent price/volume action in this stock as still being remarkably sedate given the very impressive gains being posted - there wasn't a speculative feel about it like you get with the small miners with the typical huge parcels on the buy/sell sides whipping volume into a frenzy for no good reason except to enrich the few at the expense of the many.

I felt that the interpretation for this was that there were buyers perfectly willing to buy this stock from sellers, but they weren't going to be paying just any price for the stock. There weren't all that many sellers - let's face it, everyone long in this stock is sitting on an open profit. Fundies would be holding because of faith in the company. Techies would be holding because the price was going up.

Today, volumes increased substantially, particularly in the last hour or two of trade. I wonder now whether the speculators have grabbed this stock - the volume of trade tomorrow will be interesting to see.

Of course, all of the above could be absolute rubbish (and won't change how I trade SLX), but it is interesting to observe.

 

[the barry]

Was thinking about jumping in tomorrow, as i have for the past week. Thinking maybe i will wait for the correction and jump in then. I am sure that at some point this stock will have a major downturn, but the way things are going that could be the $20 dollar mark. To jump in, or not jump in. That is the question........

 

[Jimminy]

Well there is an order for 100,000 shares sitting at the head of the queue at close today. That is over $1 million dollars.

So I doubt that is a trader buy. But yes I agree Silex is getting more and more attention and given today's volume tomorrows open should be interesting - particularly with someone wanting over 1 million dollars worth of shares.....

 

[Sainter]

American institutions are buying it cos they have a better idea on how to value these things, unlike 99% of the Oz institutions. They were doing this quietly for a month or so before the AFR let slip Saturday a week ago that it was happening. Since then it has run hard, as though their cover was blown.
And to also show the USA has woken up to it, check out this link from a tipsheet company-they're on about SLX.


http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/CUT/ECUTH380/

Cheers!

 

[Jimminy]

http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/CUT/ECUTH380/

I had already posted this link on this thread last week but not to worry - those new to the thread should still have a read of it as it enables newbies to better understand SLX.

 

[Sainter]

Sorry mate-didn't see it here. I picked it up from SS where I usually hang out as my alter ego-a very informative site for this stock.
Cheers!