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SIQ - Smartgroup Corporation

wrong TPG

this is Private Equity.
 
You are right @Country Lad , if a well respected analyst like Roger Montgomery couldn't predict correctly which way this would go, it's quite possible that it could have gone the other way as well and got bid up with higher offers especially when a Super fund is in favour of the deal.

It's actually trading at a heavy discount to the current offer, so could even go higher.
 
It's actually trading at a heavy discount to the current offer, so could even go higher.

or maybe we are back to where we started where I said

The fact that the current price is about 13% below the offer price indicates the market is not confident the deal will occur, and most
certainly is of the view that there will not be a better offer to follow.


I am not in the least tempted.
 
Looks like you've had the predictions right from the start on this one @Country Lad

SIQ is pretty much back to pre-Takeover price now...

 
@divs4ever your kind of company? In addition to lavish dividends it mostly delivers high ROE (I get median 21%) on a rising trend of book value. Seems low capital intensity. Looks pretty close to fair value to me - definitely one more for my crash list.

Dividend History:

 
Down another 5-6% today.
I don't understand to any meaningful extent the workings of salary packaging, novated leasing and whatever else they do but it's been pretty profitable since listing. The lowest ROE years were still 17%, the rest were low 20s%. The shares issued are nice and low. They've delivered heaps of dividends. All that's worth at least 3x book value to me and it now just under 3x.
How will this sort of business be affected by a deep recession though, since it rests on employment? Macmillan's (MMS) share price has been plunging too - company of the same species. They don't seem to have a 'moat' since when I googled 'novated' I came across a very descriptive online version: novatedleasing.com.au

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Back to 6 bucks, down 12% early in trading but the June Half Qtrly just announced doesn't seem too bad.
They have disclosed headwinds in wage inflation, client slowness due to interest rates and tight supply of vehicles.
Normal dividend which must be about 6% full year? Doubt I'll buy though due to other interests.

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SIQ intraday down a few cents @ 6.62
SIQ goes ex dividend tomorrow (Mar 8). Div is 29c ff.
I think I'm getting a reborn interest in short term moving average crossovers combined with any suggestive resistance level, bullish candles or patterns. Was just looking back at the CDA daily chart on the same theme (20 over 50 dmas)
All in hindsight of course but a buy at around 5.50 might have been a reasonable bottom trawling bet using this approach?

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Weekly
 
SIQ @ $8.67
Has really been cranking but might well be due for a pullback due to this week's higher volume 'dark cloud covering' candle occurring at the level of the previous high.

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WEEKLY
 
Smartgroup at an interesting level. Has returned toward the $9 main resistance level of the high made a few months ago and also the high made back in mid 2022 (not seen on this 1 year chart) There was a brief false break of $9 at the previous high. Now it looks like its flagging for another push but I can't see the justification on valuation grounds - which I see as around 4x book value, with no safety margin, bringing it to about the current price.
Also the half yearly published in June is not suggesting rampant growth as ebitda was down on pcp, NPATA more so.

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DAILY
 
I won't be buying, but always interested in what Philipp Hofflin is favoring after his great contrarian call on energy, WHC and WDS around 3 years ago. Off topic, but I imbedded that old clip below.
Responded by picking SIQ on livewire for the topic of companies facing a catalyst in 2024.

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Note: ~3 years old clip
 
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